Thursday, April 24, 2014

Trading Session Choppy...But Ends Up Thanks To AAPL...AAPL Up After Earnings 8.20%...Best Day In Two Years...BIDU, ALTR, MSFT, DECK, NUE, SPWR Gap Higher After the Close...

Five of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday…XLK, XLU and XLY were the strongest sectors…XLB was the weakest sector again.   

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 1.05 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led advancers 1.37 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Thursday – strengthened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday - Holiday


SPY up .38 at 187.83 on 87.8 million shares
VIX up .05 at 13.32…
TNX up .02 at 26.88…
TLT up .21 at 111.17...
XLF down .01 at 22.03 on 29.9 million shares, lower than average volume

AAPL up 43.02 at 567.77 on 26.9 million shares, above average volume
FB down .49 at 60.87…on 138 million share, above average volume


Technical Commentary:
QQQ + 0.96%, SPY + 0.20%, DIA + 0.03%, IWM – 0.25%.

The NDX +33.99 led the broad indexes on Thursday.  AAPL, AMZN, TXN and MSFT combined for +42.9 NDX points while QCOM, BIIB, CELG and XLNX combined for -9.2 NDX points.

AAPL +43.02, +8.2% gapped up after earnings closing near its one-year horizontal resistance.  TXN gapped up following earnings on Wednesday.  XLNX -4.76, -9.08%, QCOM and CELG gapped down after releasing earnings.  The DJIA finished unchanged for the first time in 12 years.

After the close BIDU, ALTR, MSFT, DECK, NUE, SPWR, gapped higher following earnings and AMZN, CLF, KLAC, V, P, gapped lowerWatch these stocks for potential bullish and bearish gaps on Friday.

Based on the weight of the technical evidence we continue to look for the uptrend to continue higher, while understanding that many individual stocks will continue to experience negative earning reactions.

Charts are poised for a horizontal resistance breakout with earning reports increasing on Tuesday through Thursday.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 187.17, 189.70…
QQQ = 86.90, 87.88…
IWM = 113.84, 115.25…

Support Levels
SPY = 183.37, 181.38
QQQ = 85.09, 84.16, 83.15, 82.03
IWM = 110.12, 108.91, 106.99


Earnings This Week:
Monday: NFLX, HAL, HAS, KMB, STI, ZION
Tuesday: AMGN, GILD, MCD, TRV, UTX, AKS, ATI, T, ACI, CREE, HOG, JNPR, LXK, RF, SPG, SWKS, VMW, XRX
Wednesday: AAPL, BIIB, CTXS, FFIV, FB, LRCX, NXPI, ORLY, QCOM, TSCO, XLNX, PG, ANGI, BA, DAL, ETFC, ZNGA, DAVE, JCI, NSC,
Thursday: ALXN, COG, DHI, DO, TKR, ALTR, AMZN, BIDU, BRCM, CELG, CLF, KLAC, MXIM, MSFT, SIRI, SRCL, WYNN, MMM, LLY, V, VZ, AET, CNX, DECK, FCX, ESI, LVS, NUE, P, BTU, POT, RCL, LUV, SWK, SPWR, NDAQ, UA, UPS, YNDX
Friday: F


Q1 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – AAPL, CTXS, LRCX, COG, DHI, DO, TKR, ALXN, NXPI, AET, ANGI, ETFC, DAVE, SWKS, BA, DAL, GILD, NFLX, HOG, RF, XRX, HAL, HAS, STI, BHI, BX, C, GE, GME, IBKR, INTC, JNJ, KO, MS, SCHW, SNDK, UNP, URI, WFC, YHOO

Negative Reactions – BIIB, CELG, FFIV, QCOM, UA, XLNX, YNDX, ZNGA, PG, AMGN, CREE, JCI, JNPR, NSC, T, VMW, TRV, LXK, KMB, ZION, AKS, ATI, ACI, BAC, BBRY, FAST, GOOG, IBM, JPM, LLTC, MU, STLD, UNH

Reversal in progress – ATI, IBM, LLTC, PG, STLD, ZION

Reversal of Initial Reaction – AKS, BAC, MU


The SPY Market Forecast green line is pointed up at 71.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: AAL, ATI, C, ETFC, FAS, GLW, IWM, MTW, SCHW, SPY, STI, TLT, BAC, SWI, TSL, TWTR, AMZN, COST, EBAY, MNST, PCLN, WFM,
Diagonal Breakout: JDSU, ZION, BX, GOGO, LVS, P, QIHU, SPWR, WLT, DTV, MSFT, WYNN,
Bull Flag: HOS, SCSS, INTC,    
One Day:  
Potential Bullish Divergence: SINA,
Gap Up: BIDU, ALTR, MSFT, DECK, NUE, SPWR,
Gap Down: AMZN, CLF, KLAC, V, P,
Bear Flag: 
At Support: RAX, SOHU, SPLK, TBT, VRSN, YNDX, YOKU, NTAP,
C- Pattern:   

Moves
New Highs: SWKS, SNDK,       
Gap Up: CIEN, AAPL, TXN,  
Gap Down: UAL, SINA, CELG, XLNX, QCOM
H Breakout: CSIQ,      
Diagonal Breakout:   
Breakout Test:
Bull Flag Bounce:   
Bounce: ANR,    
MACD Divergence Bounce: GLD, ESRX,  
Bear Flag
Support Break: CTRP,    
______________________


51 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday and one was unchanged.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: AAPL, CTXS, TXN, AMZN, WYNN, ALXN, NXPI, WFM, BRCM, CHTR, SPLS

Lagging NDX stocks included: XLNX, BIIB, QCOM, REGN, NFLX, CELG, FFIV

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: ETFC, CSIQ, ANR, CIEN, TSL, XONE

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: UAL, CTRP, KKD, ZION, YNDX, YOKU, SPLK, SFUN,SINA, YELP, TWTR, LNKD


Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 33
MAR, GRMN, KRFT, FAST, INTC, WDC, CSCO, CHRW, SPLS, NVDA, SYMC, LINTA, COST, EXPD, SIAL,MDLZ, MU, SNDK, ADI, NXPI, BIDU, CHKP,CMCSA, ORLY, FOXA, AVGO, DTV, GILD, MXIM, TXN, CHTR, MYL, ILMN

Moving Above 30 DMA = 9
AAPL, ADP, ALXN, BRCM, CTXS, EQIX, MSFT, PCAR, SRCL

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
CELG, FFIV, QCOM, VIP

Staying Below 30 DMA
EXPE, FISV, STX, YHOO, FB, REGN, SBAC TSLA, ISRG, AMAT, KLAC, LLTC, MAT, NTAP, XLNX, BBBY, ROST, DISH, ALTR, AMGN, ATVI, CTSH, HSIC, PAYX, VIAB, DISCA, SBUX, TSCO, UINTU, AKAM, EBAY, ESRX, WFM, LMCA, TRIP, ADBE, AMZN, BIIB, DLTR, GMCR, CERN, PCLN, WYNN, LBTYA, MNST, NFLX, CA, VRSK, ADSK, VOD, VRTX, SIRI, CTRX, GOOG

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up/Neutral

1 comment:

Scott Avery said...

Markets were choppy and maybe it's just me but I have seen before that at market tops and bottoms they tend to act weird, and/or the indicies don't match as much. So I should act on it right? no, but I'll act after the charts do. thanks for that understanding as I used not to do that.