Wednesday, September 30, 2009

SPX Moves 58 Point to Close Down 3...Rises 14.9% for Q3...

DJIA -29.92 -0.31% SPX -3.53 -0.33% COMPQ -1.62 -0.08% RUT -6.17 -1.01% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,258 1,023 Declining 1,763 1,721 Oil 70.61 +3.90 Gold 1,008.00 +14.90 SOX 325.75 +2.75 VIX 25.61 +0.42 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Wednesday. The SOX moved up and did NOT confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLK +0.29%...XLP +0.20%...XLF -0.47% Weakest Sectors: XLI -1.01%...XLV -0.73%...XLB -0.67% Two of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Technology and Consumer Staples were stronger than the SPX -0.33%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.47%: IVZ, C, ICE, PNC, CME, TRV, USB, GS, AXP, SPG, PRU, STT, AFL and MMC. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.29%: SYMC, YHOO, ADBE, CSCO, GLW, AMAT, IBM, TXN, DELL, INTC and VZ. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Support Key Support Levels 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = Aug 27 Support Low The SPX moved 58 points on Wednesday in a 16.93 point range and closed down -3.53 points. The extra volatile day apparently was short term reactions to a lower than expected Chicago PMI manufacturing report and a better than expected Q2 GDP revision to an annualized decline of 0.7% versus an expected 1.2% decline. (click image to enlarge) The SPX gained 2.7% in September and finished the third quarter +14.9% with its second best gain during the past 9 years. The quarter ended in June was +16.7%.
(click image to enlarge)
Oil prices rose over 5% as the dollar continued to exhibit weakness. NKE gapped higher closing up $4.61 on better than expected earnings Tuesday evening.
SOX semiconductor stock index rose on Wednesday closing near recent highs and above its 320 horizontal support. UAUA dropped 6% in after-hours trading after announcing a public offering of stock and debt. RIMM which opened higher and rose more than $1.50 sold off and finished down one cent. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up on a day when momentum shifted from buyers to sellers to buyers to sellers to buyers. The SPX closed above the 1,056 support area. The 1,057 to 1,070 area is continuing to attract sellers just as it did from September 17 to 23. Today’s action proved that there are profit takers at the 1,060 area and buyers at the 1,050 area. Continue to trade the trend of the stock charts you are trading.
When does a trader know that the trend has reversed down? When prices break support and begin to form lower highs and lower lows.
Potential Breakout Setups: MRVL, DOW, JOYG, PCLN, HANS, AMZN, APOL, XLNX, JCG, WYNN Breakout: BA. AKAM, ISRG
Pulling Back: Potential C Patterns:
C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: FSLR. DE, WHR, BDK,BUCY, JEC, JCI, AGU, HOLX, NWSA, FWLT, BIDU, DD, X, CAT, FAST, FLS, FLIR, STT, SPG, ZION, AXP, AMAT, TXN, ADBE, BAC, INTC, AGU, WLT Potential Down Trend Setups: RIMM, AGCO, AMX, MON, MYGN, ORCL, MA, V AAPL -0.03 QCOM -0.52 GOOG -2.68 BIDU -3.37 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX: BRCM, NVDA, VRSN, SYMC, WCRX, ISRG, MXIM, YHOO, NTAP, CTXS, AMZN, JNPR, LRCX, MRVL, CHKP, APOL, KLAC, CELG, JBHT, SBUX, CERN, ADBE, CSCO, ILMN and XLNX. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, PCP, VAR, CLB, BIIB, GES, ESRX, NTLS, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, PWRD, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, JOYG, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, PPD, SWN, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SPWRA, SLGN, AFAM, FSLR, JCOM, NFLX, HANS, DV, AMED, ESI, GILD, STRA, MCD, BDX, CPLA, HLF, ICE, RCI Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 APEI, BKC Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 JEC, MHS, WAB, X Staying Below 30 DMA CBST, RBN, WCG, DLTR, RIMM, ALGT, CHL, DLB, MUR, PSYS, BLUD, GR, MYGN, PWR, SNA, SYNA, MOS, AMX, BYI, ORCL, WMT, MON, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

BMO – ES +3 and NQ +4 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +0.92, GOOG +1.42 and BIDU +0.83are higher in pre-market trading. We wrote Tuesday morning of a potential pause in the SPX on Tuesday and that is what the market delivered. The trading did stay above Monday’s S1 at 1,054 and the trend still suggests the move will most likely continue up. So, we’ll be watching this morning for a continuation of Monday’s support bounce. Several stocks like PCLN, PWRD, FUQI, FSLR, BDK DE, JOYG, WHR and WYNN did have support bounce continuation on Tuesday. From September 16 -23 the SPX traded between 1,057 and 1,080 so this level is an area where traders are trading both sides of the market. SPX Support = 1,056 Resistance = R1 = 1,061 and 1,075 Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – AAPL – BIDU – GOOG – PCLN – ISRG – BDK – CAT – DOW – FLS – FWLT – WHR – X – JOYG – PCP – WYNN - AXP – BAC – FAS – SPG – STT – ZION – WLT – FUQI – PWRD – FCX – CAM – ARO – GES – FLIR – JCI – FAST – UAUA –

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

SPX Pause at 1,061 Resistance Level...

DJIA -47.16 -0.48% SPX -2.37 -0.22% COMPQ -6.70 -0.31% RUT -2.77 -0.45% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,446 1,129 Declining 1,556 1,593 Oil 66.71 -0.13 Gold 993.10 +0.60 SOX 323.00 -4.67 VIX 25.19 +0.31 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Tuesday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLP +1.25%...XLY +0.47%...XLU +0.47% Weakest Sectors: XLK -0.53%...XLF -0.46%...XLE -0.28% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Utilities, Healthcare and Materials were stronger than the SPX -0.22%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.46%: PNC, C, SCHW, KEY, AFL, GS, IVZ, MMC, JPM, ALL ICE, ZION, CB, STT, BAC, NTRS and TRV. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.53%: GLW, SYMC, GOOG, YHOO, EBAY, ORCL, MSFT, AAPL and IBM Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Support Key Support Levels 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = Aug 27 Support Low The SPX paused on Tuesday after Monday’s strong gains. Trading stayed above Monday’s S1 level at 1,054 at closed at the 1,061 horizontal resistance area. The Financial sector XLF pulled back but also stayed above Monday’s S1 level. Education stocks APOL, DV, ESI and STRA again experienced a strong support bounce on Tuesday. RIMM rallied modestly after two down days following Friday’s gap down after its Thursday afternoon earning announcement. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is up and momentum paused on Tuesday after a strong surge on Monday. The SPX held at the 1,061 area. Monday’s S1 is 1,054. If the 1,061 resistance level breaks on Wednesday look for a potential bounce to the 1,075 resistance level. Remember the 1,060 to 1,075 is a significant resistance area that likely will require more consolidation before a breakout. This is the price target for the 875 breakout in early May and there may be more profit takers at this level. Continue to trade the trend of the stock charts you are trading. Potential Breakout Setups: HANS, AMZN, APOL, XLNX, JCG, WYNN Breakout: AKAM, ISRG Pulling Back: Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: FSLR. JOYG, DE, WHR, BDK,BUCY, JEC, JCI, AGU, HOLX, NWSA, FWLT, BIDU, DD, X, DOW, CAT, FAST, FLS, FLIR, STT, SPG, ZION, MRVL, AXP, AMAT, TXN, ADBE, BAC, INTC, AGU, WLT, MA, V Potential Down Trend Setups: RIMM, AGCO, AMX, MON, MYGN, ORCL AAPL -0.73 QCOM -0.47 GOOG +0.00 BIDU -1.63 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX: WCRX, WYNN, FSLR, APOL, CMCSA, ILMN, GRMN, RIMM, NIHD, BIIB, JOYG, SIAL, AKAM, HANS, ADSK, DISH, URBN, INFY and CTSH. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, WAB, PCP, VAR, CLB, BIIB, GES, ESRX, NTLS, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, PWRD, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, PPD, SWN, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SPWRA, SLGN, AFAM, FSLR, JCOM, NFLX, HANS, DV, AMED, ESI, GILD, STRA, MCD, BDX, CPLA, HLF, ICE, JEC, MHS Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 RCI Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 CBST, RBN, WCG Staying Below 30 DMA DLTR, RIMM, ALGT, CHL, DLB, MUR, PSYS, APEI, BKC, BLUD, GR, MYGN, PWR, SNA, SYNA, MOS, AMX, BYI, ORCL, WMT, MON, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Slightly Lower Open...

BMO – ES -2 and NQ -6 futures are slightly lower in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to lower open. AAPL +0.07, GOOG +1.47 and BIDU +1.45 are higher in pre-market trading. We’ll be watching for a continuation of Monday’s support bounce this morning understanding after such a strong move that a pause is also possible. If a pause does occur and the trading stays above Monday’s S1 at 1,054 the move will most likely continue up. The breadth of Monday’s rally with every sector rising and the leadership of financials are both indications of the strength of the support bounce. Most stocks had a support bounce on Monday which formed the large range support bounce in the SPX. This was a very strong resumption of upward momentum in this continuing up trend. SPX Support = 1,056 Resistance = R1 = 1,061 and 1,075 Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – AAPL – BIDU – GOOG – PCLN – ISRG – BDK – CAT – DOW – FLS – FWLT – WHR – X – JOYG – PCP – AXP – BAC – FAS – SPG – STT – ZION – WLT – FUQI – PWRD – FCX – CAM – ARO – GES – FLIR – JCI – FAST – UAUA –

Monday, September 28, 2009

SPX...What a Support Bounce...

DJIA +124.17 +1.28% SPX +18.60 +1.78% COMPQ +39.82 +1.90% RUT +14.28 +2.38% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,426 2,021 Declining 609 671 Oil 66.84 +0.82 Gold 992.50 +2.20 SOX 327.67 +6.62 VIX 24.88 -0.73 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLF +3.36%...XLI +2.07%...XLB +1.90% Weakest Sectors: XLP +0.20%...XLU +0.86%...XLV +1.09% All nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Financials, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +1.78%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +3.36%: ALL, PRU, SPG, CME, MET, IVZ, TROW, CB, AFL, C, ICE, AOC, MMC, AXP KEY, BAC, SCHW, RF and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.65%: CSCO, AMAT, QCOM, ADBE, ADP, TXN, YHOO, SYMC, DELL, AAPL, EBAY, EMC, INTC, HPQ, T and MA. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Support Key Support Levels 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = Aug 27 Support Low We wrote this morning we would be watching for a support bounce and what a bounce it was. The SPX had its largest daily range, 19.75 points, for an up day since July 30 in a strong support bounce will all nine sectors rising. XLF, the leading sector since the March low, was up 3.36% and FAS 3X Financial Bull was up 9.46% which as the leading sector confirms the move up in the SPX . As referenced in the Friday post we expected the pattern, since the March low, of three or four days of pull back to be followed by a continuation of the up trend. Three days and a bounce happened once again. The Financial sector was led by insurance stock, ALL, PRU, MET, CB and AFL, exchanges CME and ICE, fund managers IVZ and TROW along with AXP and banks BAC and RF. RIMM continued lower and the gains on our real time virtual trades on RIMM, the Oct 85 straddle rose to +7.90 or 72% and our Oct 90/80 Strangle was up +7.23 or 107%. ISRG was up $1.50 on lower, but still above average volume. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is up and momentum on the short term trend moved up in the direction of the trend in a bull flag breakout. The SPX broke through the 1,056 R1 resistance and moved to the 1,061 area. Monday’s S1 is 1,054. Most of the stocks in our lists below had a support bounce with a few forming an inside day on Monday. Trade the stock chart and watch support at 1,054 and resistance at 1,061 on the SPX. On a breakout of 1,061 look for price to rise to the next resistance level of 1,075. Potential Breakout Setups: HANS, AMZN, APOL, XLNX, JCG, WYNN Breakout: AKAM, ISRG Pulling Back: Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: NWSA, FWLT, BIDU, DD, X, DOW, CAT, JOYG, FAST, FLS, FLIR, DE, STT, BDK, SPG, WHR, FSLR, ZION, BUCY, MRVL, AXP, AMAT, JEC, JCI, TXN, ADBE, HOLX, BAC, INTC, AGU, WLT, MA, V Potential Down Trend Setups: RIMM, AGCO, AMX, MON, MYGN, ORCL AAPL +3.78 QCOM +1.27 GOOG +6.05 BIDU +8.49 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX: JOYG, GRMN, CSCO, STX, SBUX, NWSA, AKAM, VRTX, FWLT, JNPR, CTXS, MRVL, CA, QCOM, ADBE, INFY, XRAY, URBN, DTW, LBTYA, BBBY, EXPE, ADP, BRCM, ROST, SRCL, CTSH and BIDU. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, WAB, PCP, RBN, VAR, CLB, BIIB, GES, ESRX, NTLS, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, PWRD, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, PPD, SWN, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SPWRA, SLGN, AFAM, FSLR, JCOM, NFLX, HANS, DV, AMED, ESI, GILD, STRA, MCD Moving Above 30 DMA = 8 BDX, CBST, CPLA, HLF, ICE, JEC, MHS, WCG Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA DLTR, RIMM, ALGT, CHL, DLB, MUR, PSYS, RCI, APEI, BKC, BLUD, GR, MYGN, PWR, SNA, SYNA, MOS, AMX, BYI, ORCL, WMT, MON, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

10:15 am ET - 45 minutes into Monday's trading and the SPX is breaking the high of the low day in a classic bull flag bounce pushing through Thursday's R1 level, now at 1,058...many individual stocks also breaking or at the high of the low day...BDK, PCLN, DOW, FWLT, WHR, JOYG, PCP, FAS, SPY, QQQQ, SPG, WLT, CAM, FLIR and FAST from out At the Open on Monday list...many other stocks are currently forming inside days which can be the setup for a bounce... BMO – ES +3 and NQ +6.50 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to higher open. AAPL +1.88, GOOG +2.52 and BIDU +3.44 are also higher in pre-market trading. As of Friday the SPX and many stocks were in a bull flag pull back. We’ll be watching for a potential support bounce this morning. Several stocks had a positive bounce or inside day on Friday which indicates a bounce or slowing downward momentum. Pre-market action looks like we might see a break of the high of the low day on many stocks and maybe even on the SPX. SPX Support = 1,044 Resistance = R1 = 1,056 and 1,061 Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – AAPL – BIDU – GOOG – PCLN – ISRG – BDK – CAT – DOW – FLS – FWLT – WHR – X – JOYG – PCP – AXP – BAC – FAS – SPG – STT – ZION – WLT – FUQI – PWRD – FCX – CAM – ARO – GES – FLIR – JCI – FAST – UAUA –

Friday, September 25, 2009

SPX Closes at 1,044 Support...

The SPX closes slightly lower...Airlines XAL rise in support bounce... DJIA -42.25 -0.44% SPX -6.40 -0.61% COMPQ -16.69 -0.79% RUT -2.81 -0.47% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,362 1,153 Declining 1,633 1,538 Oil 66.02 +0.13 – Nov contract Gold 990.30 -7.30 SOX 321.05 -1.99 VIX 25.61 +0.66 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLV +0.07%...XLP +0.00%...XLE -0.13% Weakest Sectors: XLI -1.40%...XLB -0.97%...XLF -0.95% Seven of nine sectors moved lower on Friday. Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Energy, Utilities and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX -0.61%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.95%: SPG, PNC, USB, TRV, STT, ZION, CB, ALL, RF, MS, MMC, MET, SCHW, PRU, WFC, BK and NTRS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.63%: SYMC, YHOO, AMAT, HPQ, IBM, QCOM, AMT, CSCO, T, EBAY and GLW. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Support Key Support Levels 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = Aug 27 Support Low The SPX was down for the third straight day on Friday. As I said in my webcast Thursday, there are several times since the March low where the SPX pulled back three to four days without turning the intermediate term trend down. The last four day pull back ended on Sept. 2. Will Monday be a fourth down day for the SPX? RIMM gapped lower and closed down $14.15 with a third quarter outlook lower than expected on Thursday after the close. Our real time virtual trades on RIMM, the Oct 85 Straddle was up $5.70 or 52% and our Oct 90/80 Strangle was up $5.08 or 75.8%. ISRG broke out on with an almost 200% volume surge. With the SPX at 1,044 the next support level is the 1,025 level. Short term traders should have exited their trades this week and be looking for a support bounce to re-enter this trend. Intermediate term traders see this pull back as still at a higher low. On Friday advancing stocks increased and declining stocks decreased from Thursday. Friday did see downward momentum slow in the SPX and all sectors. Airline stocks had a support bounce with UAUA, CAL and AMR showing strong gains. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is up with the short term trend pulling back in a bull flag pattern. The SPX held at the 1,044 support level for the second day. Many of the stocks in our lists below had a support bounce or formed an inside day on Friday. Trade the stock chart and watch support at 1,044 and resistance at 1,056 and 1,061 on the SPX. Stocks that had a bounce on Friday: HANS, AKAM, FLS, ADSK, STT, SPG, FSLR, WYNN, HOLX Potential Breakout Setups: HANS, AKAM Breakout: ISRG, CAT, JOYG, FAST, FLS, FLIR Pulling Back: BIDU, DD, X, DOW, XLNX, AMZN, NWSA, FWLT, JCG, APOL Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: DE, STT, BDK, SPG, WHR, FSLR, ZION, WYNN, BUCY, MRVL, AXP, AMAT, JEC, JCI, TXN, ADBE, HOLX, BAC, INTC Potential Down Trend Setups: RIMM, AGI, WLT, MA, V, AGCO, AMX, MON, MYGN, ORCL AAPL -1.45 QCOM +0.04 GOOG -4.29 BIDU -2.67 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX: ISRG, DISH, SBUX, WCRX, SYMC, HANS, FSLR, CEPH, CELG, YHOO, VRTX, WYNN, PPDI, ERTS, HOLX, DTV, ILMN, ATVI, LBTYA, MXIM, LLTC, GILD, TEVA, FLIR, ADSK, AKAM, GRMN, APOL, MCHP, MRVL and SIAL. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, WAB, PCP, RBN, VAR, CLB, BIIB, GES, ESRX, NTLS, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, PWRD, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, PPD, SWN, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SPWRA, SLGN, AFAM, FSLR, JCOM, NFLX, HANS, DV, AMED, ESI, GILD, STRA, MCD Moving Above 30 DMA = 0 Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 CPLA, DLTR, ICE, RIMM, WCG Staying Below 30 DMA ALGT, BDX, CBST, CHL, DLB, HLF, JEC, MHS, MUR, PSYS, RCI, APEI, BKC, BLUD, GR, MYGN, PWR, SNA, SYNA, MOS, AMX, BYI, ORCL, WMT, MON, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Pointing to a Slightly Lower Open...

9:55 am ET - The INDU +20 points, SPX +1.70, COMPQ -2.63, RUT -0.55...HANS, PCLN, FLS, CAT, WYNN are also moving up...Sectors XLE, XLP and XLV are also higher... 9:37 am ET - On Tuesday, Sept. 22, in our VC webcast we placed two real time virtual trades on RIMM in anticipation of Thursday's earnings announcement. One was a Straddle and the other a Strangle. The Straddle cost was $10.95 and the Strangle cost was 6.70...after the gap down the Straddle is up 4.24 or 38.7% and the Strangle is up 3.70 or 55.2% BMO – ES -1 and NQ -3 futures are slightly lower in pre-market trading pointing to slightly lower open. AAPL -2.27, GOOG -3.02 and BIDU -3.73 are also lower in pre-market trading. RIMM which gapped down in after hours trading on an earnings announcement with an outlook that disappointed has some analyst downgrades this morning and is down over $12 in pre-market trading. The Euro is1 pip lower just before the open. SPX Support = 1,044 Resistance = 1,061 Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – AAPL – BIDU – FSLR – GOOG – BDK – CAT – DOW – FLS – FWLT – WHR – X – JOYG – PCP – AXP – BAC – FAS – SPG – STT – ZION – WLT – FUQI – PWRD – FCX – CAM – ARO – GES – FLIR – JCI – FAST – JCG – UAUA –

Thursday, September 24, 2009

SPX Breaks Support...

DJIA -41.11 -0.42% SPX -10.09 -0.95% COMPQ -23.81 -1.12% RUT -11.62 -1.89% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 713 658 Declining 2,313 2,039 Oil 65.89 -3.08 – Nov contract Gold 997.60 -15.50 SOX 323.04 -8.01 VIX 24.95 +1.46 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Thursday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLV -0.11%...XLU -0.27%...XLP -0.51% Weakest Sectors: XLB -2.19%...XLF -2.00%...XLI -1.63% All nine sectors moved lower on Thursday. Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX -0.95%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -2.00%: STT, CB, AXP, TRV, MMC, GS, BK, USB, AOC, NTRS, WFC, SCHW, JPM, MET, AFL and C. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.96%: QCOM, VZ, MSFT, EMC, ORCL, IBM, HPQ, GOOG, T, CSCO and AAPL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Supportesu9 Key Support Levels 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = Aug 27 Support Low After an opening bounce off the 1,061 support area the SPX broke support and dropped 17 points in about 60 minutes and fell to the 1,044 support zone. The COMPQ, RUT and INDU indexes all dropped during the first hour of trading forming a large black candle which followed Wednesday’ bearish engulfing pattern. The indexes did have a late support bounce forming lower shadows as price moved above intra-day lows. Today’s price action broke the low of the high day which was Thursday and below the S1 level or short term support of the September 16 large white candle. Energy, financial and education stocks moved lower. BIDU fell $18 before rebounding $14 to close down -4.72 for the day. RIMM reported earnings after hours which exceeded estimates however its outlook disappointed and the stock dropped almost $10 in after hours trading. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is up with the short term trend forming a bull flag pattern. Price action broke the support of the five day horizontal bull flag and fell to the 1,044 support level. Depending on the individual chart and the traders’ rules, today may have been an exit day for some short term traders. The recent Yellow Alert became Red on the indexes. Many of the stocks in our Breakout list are still forming horizontal bull flags. Watch support at 1,044 and resistance at 1,061. Potential Breakout Setups: HANS, DE, AKAM, AMZN Breakout: XLNX, CAT, JOYG, DOW, FAST, DD, X, FLS, BIDU, V, FLIR Pulling Back: NWSA, FWLT, RIMM, MA, JCG, WLT, APOL Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: STT, BDK, SPG, WHR, FSLR, ZION, WYNN, BUCY, MRVL, AXP. AGU, AMAT, JEC, JCI, TXN, ADBE, HOLX, BAC, INTC Potential Down Trend Setups: AGCO, AMX, MON, MYGN, ORCL AAPL -1.68 QCOM +0.43 GOOG -1.69 BIDU -4.72 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX: CTAS, CTXS, ORLY, QCOM, MSFT, ILMN, CELG, AMGN, TEVA, GILD, CHKP, GENZ, ORCL, HOLX and ROST. Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, WAB, PCP, RBN, VAR, CLB, BIIB, GES, ESRX, DLTR, NTLS, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, WCG, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, PWRD, RIMM, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, PPD, SWN, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SPWRA, SLGN, AFAM, FSLR, JCOM, NFLX, HANS, ICE, DV, AMED, CPLA, ESI, GILD, STRA Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 MCD Moving Below 30 DMA = 11 ALGT, BDX, CBST, CHL, DLB, HLF, JEC, MHS, MUR, PSYS, RCI Staying Below 30 DMA APEI, BKC, BLUD, GR, MYGN, PWR, SNA, SYNA, MOS, AMX, BYI, ORCL, WMT, MON, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Pointing to a Slightly Higher Open...

BMO – ES +1 and NQ +3 futures are slightly higher in pre-market trading pointing to slightly higher open. AAPL +1.80, GOOG +2.53 and BIDU +1.05 are also higher in pre-market trading. The Euro is up 87 pips overnight.
RIMM reports earnings after the close today.
SPX Support = 1,061 Resistance = 1,075 Keep trading the trend of the chart you have positions in, while looking for any move below last Thursday’s low. Wednesday’s price action while a dramatic range expansion did not go below last Thursday’s low. Until the SPX breaks above 1,075 or below 1,061 it continues inside its horizontal bull flag. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – AAPL – BIDU – FSLR – GOOG – BDK – CAT – DOW – FLS – FWLT – WHR – X – JOYG – PCP – AXP – BAC – FAS – SPG – STT – ZION – WLT – FUQI – PWRD – FCX – CAM – ARO – GES – FLIR – JCI – FAST – JCG – UAUA –

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Wednesday's Post is Coming...

A late selloff sent the SPX from resistance at 1,080.15 to support 1,060.87 in an expansion of the daily range from 7 points on Tuesday to nearly 20 points today... DJIA -81.32 -0.83% SPX -10.79 -1.01% Nasdaq -14.88 -0.69% RUT -7.32 -1.18% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,070 1,042 Declining 1,957 1,680 Oil 68.97 -2.79 – Nov contract Gold 1,013.10 -1.30 SOX 331.05 +1.72 VIX 23.49 +0.41 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Wednesday. The SOX moved up and did NOT confirm the move down in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLK +0.00%...XLP +0.00%...XLU -0.34% Weakest Sectors: XLE -2.09%...XLF -2.02%...XLB -1.59% Two of nine sectors were unchanged on Wednesday. Technology, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Industrials were stronger than the SPX -1.01%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -2.02%: SCHW, MMC, AOC, TROW, NTRS, CB, BAC, TRV, GS, AXP, BK, USB, ICE, ALL, CME and PNC. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.00%: T, YHOO, INTC, DELL, VZ, TXN, AAPL and ADP. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Key Resistance Levels: 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Supportesu9 Key Support Levels 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = Aug 27 Support Low The SPX, COMPQ, RUT and INDU all made a new high today and then reversed in the last 90 minutes of trading falling to the low of the day and forming a bearish engulfing pattern. Since today is a new high day it is true that the low of the high day was not broken, yet. However, the low of previous high day, Tuesday, for the COMPQ and RUT was broken and the previous high day, last Thursday, for the SPX and INDU was also broken. However none of the indexes broke below the S1 level or short term support of the September 16 large white candle or below their horizontal bull flag.
(click image to enlarge)
Energy and financial stocks moved lower as did airline and education stocks. Guidance: Stay with the trend continues to be the correct strategy. Price action moved from a new high to the low or the five day horizontal bull flag during the last 90 minutes of trading. Depending on the individual chart and the traders’ rules, today may have been an exit day for some short term traders. The recent Yellow Alert became Red on some charts. Many of the stocks in our Breakout list are still forming horizontal bull flags similar to the SPX. Potential Breakout Setups: HANS, DE, AKAM, AMZN Breakout: XLNX, JCG, RIMM, MA, CAT, JOYG, FWLT, DOW, FAST, DD, X, FLS, BIDU, NWSA, V, FLIR Pulling Back: WLT, APOL, STT Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: BDK, SPG, WHR, FSLR, ZION, WYNN, BUCY, MRVL, AXP. AGU, AMAT, JEC, JCI, TXN, ADBE, HOLX, BAC, INTC Potential Down Trend Setups: AGCO, AMX, MON, MYGN, ORCL AAPL +1.02 QCOM -0.36 GOOG -0.60 BIDU -1.34 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX: ERTS, XLNX, ALTR, LLTC, CHKP, YHOO, INTC, IACI, MRVL, PAYX, NTAP, RIMM, VRSN, AAPL, WCRX and RYAAY. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PSYS, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, CBST, WAB, CLB, PCP, RBN, VAR, CLB, BIIB, GES, HDB, ESRX, BDX, DLTR, NTLS, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, WCG, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, JEC, PWRD, RCI, RIMM, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, MUR, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, HLF, MHS, PPD, PSYS, SWN, ALGT, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SPWRA, SLGN, AFAM, FSLR, JCOM, NFLX, HANS, ICE, DLB, DV, AMED, CPLA, ESI, GILD, STRA, CHL Moving Above 30 DMA = 0 Moving Below 30 DMA = 9 APEI, BKC, BLUD, GR, MCD, MYGN, PWR, SNA, SYNA Staying Below 30 DMA MOS, AMX, BYI, ORCL, WMT, MON, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Slightly Hiher Open...

BMO – ES +2 and NQ +4 futures are slightly higher in pre-market trading pointing to slightly higher open. AAPL +0.98, GOOG +1.94 and BIDU +1.21 are also higher in pre-market trading. SPX Support = 1,061 Resistance = 1,075 Keep trading the trend of the chart you have positions in, while looking for any move below Thursday’s low. Until the SPX breaks above 1,075 or below 1,061 it continues inside its horizontal bull flag. These stocks closed higher on Tuesday…watch for support bounce follow through… Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – AAPL – BIDU – FSLR – GOOG – BDK – CAT – DOW – FLS – FWLT – WHR – X – JOYG – PCP – AXP – BAC – FAS – SPG – STT – ZION – WLT – FUQI – PWRD – FCX – CAM – ARO – GES – FLIR – JCI – FAST – JCG – UAUA –

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

SPX New High Close...

DJIA +51.01 +0.52% SPX +7.00 +0.66% Nasdaq +8.26 +0.39% RUT +4.72 +0.77% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,173 1,552 Declining 875 1,159 Oil 71.55 +1.84 Gold 1,014.40 +10.50 SOX 329.33 +2.93 VIX 23.08 -0.98 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Tuesday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLF +2.27%...XLE +1.57%...XLI +1.19% Weakest Sectors: XLV -0.31%...XLU -0.27%...XLP +0.20% Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Financials, Energy, Industrials, and Materials were stronger than the SPX +0.66%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.27%: C, ZION, MS, JPM, RF, WFC, SCHW, KEY, TROW, IVZ and ETF’s UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.53%: AMAT, MSFT, EMC, ADP, HPQ, EBAY, MA and ADBE. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Key Resistance Levels: 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Supportesu9 Key Support Levels 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = Aug 27 Support Low The SPX traded higher on Tuesday in a narrow range of just 7 points closing at 1,071.66 its first close over 1,070 since October 3, 2008. Financials again led the SPX higher with strong sector gains. Energy and gold stocks also moved higher as oil and gold prices rose. Airline and education stocks cooled off on Tuesday after Monday’s strong gains on above average volume. Guidance: Stay with the trend continues to be the correct strategy even with Monday’s pull back that was reversed on Tuesday. SPX, Nasdaq, RUT and DJIA all had a new high close on Tuesday. The price action continues to look like a horizontal bull flag. Thursday is still the high day for the SPX and DJIA. Tuesday was a new high day for the Nasdaq and RUT. Short term traders continue to be on Yellow Alert. Many of the stocks in our Breakout list are forming horizontal bull flags similar to the SPX. Potential Breakout Setups: HANS, DE, AKAM, AMZN, STT Breakout: JCG, RIMM, APOL, FSLR, MA, CAT, JOYG, FWLT, DOW, FAST, DD, X, WHR, SPG, BDK, FLS, BIDU, NWSA, V, FLIR Pulling Back: Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: WLT, ZION, WYNN, BUCY, X, MRVL, AXP. AGU, AMAT, JEC, JCI, TXN, XLNX, ADBE, HOLX, BAC, INTC Potential Down Trend Setups: AGCO AAPL +0.46 QCOM -0.28 GOOG +2.06 BIDU -3.96 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the WYNN, JOYG, AMZN, EXPE, FWLT, JBHT, PAYX, FAST, DISH, RYAAY, AKAM, LRCX, DTV, NIHD, CERN, URBN, ADP, STX, INTU, NTAP, MRVL, BRCM, CTSH and MICC. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PSYS, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, CBST, WAB, CLB, PCP, RBN, VAR, CLB, BIIB, GES, HDB, ESRX, BDX, DLTR, NTLS, MYGN, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, WCG, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, JEC, PWR, PWRD, RCI, RIMM, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, MUR, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, HLF, MHS, PPD, PSYS, SWN, SYNA, ALGT, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SPWRA, SLGN, AFAM, FSLR, JCOM, NFLX, HANS, ICE, MCD, APEI, DLB, DV, AMED, BKC, CPLA, ESI, GILD, STRA Moving Above 30 DMA = 4 BLUD, CHL, GR, SNA Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA MOS, AMX, BYI, ORCL, WMT, MON, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

BMO – ES +7 and NQ +10 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to higher open. AAPL +1.53, GOOG +3.10 and BIDU +3.74 are also higher in pre-market trading. SPX Support = 1,061 Resistance = 1,075 Keep trading the trend of the chart you have positions in, while looking for any move below Thursday’s low. Monday looks like it could be a counter trend pull back. These stocks opened lower and closed higher on Monday…watch for support bounce follow through… Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – AAPL – BIDU – FSLR – GOOG – PCLN -
BDK – CAT – DE -
DOW – FLS – FWLT – WHR – X – JOYG – PCP – AXP – BAC – FAS – SPG – STT – ZION – WLT – FUQI – PWRD – FCX – CAM – ARO – GES – FLIR – JCI – FAST – JCG – UAUA –

Monday, September 21, 2009

Nasdaq Rises as SPX Moves Lower and Finds Support...

DJIA -41.34 -0.42% SPX -3.64 -0.34% Nasdaq +5.18 +0.24% RUT -1.91 -0.31% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,012 1,259 Declining 2,014 1,459 Oil 69.71 -2.33 Gold 1,003.90 -5.50 SOX 326.40 -0.08 VIX 24.06 +0.14 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Monday. The SOX moved down and did not confirm the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLV +0.97%...XLP -0.31%...XLY -0.40% Weakest Sectors: XLB -1.00%...XLF -0.92%...XLE -0.85% One of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Healthcare and Consumer Staples were stronger than the SPX -0.34%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.92%: RF, C, SCHW, TRV, PNC,MS, CME, KEY, MMC, CB, GS, AOC, IVZ, NTRS, WFC, ICE and JPM. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.43%: GLW, GOOG, CSCO, QCOM, SYMC, HPQ, MSFT, INTC, ORCL, ADBE, VZ, TXN and MA. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Key Resistance Levels: 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Support Key Support Levels 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = Aug 27 Support Low The SPX opened near Friday’s close fell to 1,057.46 and rallied to 1,064.66, above Wednesday’s S1 level at 1,061. The market sold off and found buyers at 1,057. The trend is still up…look for potential support bounce stocks in this intermediate term up trend. Chart Signals alerted you to the move in Airline stocks about an hour into Monday’s session…they continued to rise with a powerful support bounce on above average volume into to the close…Support bounce on Monday, possible breakout on Tuesday (click image to enlarge) Educational stocks from our Stocks to Watch list also soared on above average volume on Monday... (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Stay with the trend you are trading. The SPX, Nasdaq, RUT and DJIA formed another spinning top on Monday in what is looking like a horizontal bull flag. Thursday is still the high day. Short term traders continue to be on Yellow Alert. Potential Breakout Setups: HANS, DE, JCG Breakout: RIMM, APOL, FSLR, MA, CAT, JOYG, FWLT, DOW, FAST, DD, X, WHR, SPG, BDK, FLS, BIDU, NWSA, V, FLIR, AKAM, AMZN Pulling Back: X, MRVL, AXP, AGU, BUCY, JEC, JCI, STT, WYNN, AMAT, ZION Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: TXN, WLT, XLNX, ADBE, HOLX, BAC, INTC Potential Down Trend Setups: AGCO AAPL -1.00 QCOM +0.41 GOOG +5.54 BIDU +0.27 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX APOL, CELG, ATVI, CERN, NTAP, HANS, AMGN, AKAM, DISH, ADSK, CEPH, SHLD, NIHD, GILD, COST, BIIB, DTV, VRTX, HOLX, BBBY, BRCM and STX. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PSYS, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, CBST, WAB, CLB, PCP, RBN, VAR, CLB, BIIB, GES, HDB, ESRX, BDX, DLTR, NTLS, MYGN, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, WCG, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, JEC, PWR, PWRD, RCI, RIMM, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, MUR, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, HLF, MHS, PPD, PSYS, SWN, SYNA, ALGT, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SPWRA, SLGN, AFAM, FSLR, JCOM, NFLX, HANS, ICE, MCD, APEI, DLB, DV, AMED, BKC Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 CPLA, ESI, GILD, STRA Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 MOS Staying Below 30 DMA AMX, GR, BLUD, BYI, ORCL, WMT, MON, SNA, CHL, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Lower Open...

Dave will be teaching the AO Capstone on Tuesday morning at 7:00 am MT = 9:00 am ET, a half hour before the market open... 2:35 pm ET - The SPX is at 1,063.63 holding above Wednesday's S1 level...at this point the SPX is forming a spinning top for the third day in a row...perhaps similar to the first two weeks and last week of August...FUQI, HANS, PCLN, NIHD, RF, SHLD, MHS, PWRD, QCOM, GMCR are positive at mid-afternoon... 11:12 am ET - The SPX is bouncing and has risen 1,063.78...so at this moment it looks as if the 1,061 support area may hold at least for now...this is the reason why traders trade the trend of the stock they are trading and why it is a good idea for newer traders to trade in the direction of the intermediate term trend only...counter trend moves can be short lived...Watch for a potential lower high to determine if this counter trend has a multi-day move in it....JOYG, FUQI and PWRD have turned positive... 10:35 am ET - The SPX is trading just below Wednesday's S1 at 1,059...many individual stocks are trading lower including BIDU, FAS, AAPL, PCLN, BDK, X, STT, JOYG, MRVL, FUQI and PWRD...Airline stocks are higher CAL, DAL, AMR, ALK, UAUA, LCC as are GOOG, ISRG, SHLD, WYNN, HANS and ESRX... BMO – ES -7 and NQ -7 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to lower open. AAPL -1.15, GOOG -3.77 and BIDU -2.98 are also lower in pre-market trading. The SP futures are trading below Friday’s low. The SPX is likely to open near or below the 1,061 area, its key short term support area. Keep trading the trend of the chart you have positions in, while looking for any move below Thursday’s low. Monday looks like it could be a counter trend pull back. Pre-market quotes which are based on thin trading are pointing to a lower open on almost every stock on our At the Open list…this could be a week of bull flag formation…we’ll see what opportunity appears. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – AAPL – BIDU – FSLR – GOOG – BDK – CAT – DOW – FLS – FWLT – WHR – X – JOYG – PCP – AXP – BAC – FAS – SPG – STT – ZION – WLT – FUQI – PWRD – FCX – CAM – ARO – GES – FLIR – JCI – FAST – JCG – UAUA –

Friday, September 18, 2009

SPX Forms Inside Day Spinning Top...

DJIA +36.28 +0.37% SPX +2.81 +0.26% Nasdaq +6.11 +0.29% RUT +2.41 +0.39% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,760 1,430 Declining 1,254 1,315 Oil 72.04 -0.43 Gold 1,009.40 -3.20 SOX 326.48 +5.15 VIX 23.92 +0.27 The VIX moved up and did NOT confirm the move up in the SPX on Friday. This is the third day in a row that the VIX did not confirm the SPX. Candidly, these have been small non-confirmations and may mean absolutely nothing, but it is worth noting. The SOX moved up and confirmed the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLP +0.59%...XLK +0.24%...XLY +0.04% Weakest Sectors: XLI -1.10%...XLV -0.86%...XLE -0.79% Three of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Only Consumer Staples was stronger than the SPX +0.26%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.46%: CME, SPG, USB, ICE, KEY, STT, MS, ALL, GS, TROW, PNC, ZION, CB, MMC, AFL, BAC, JPM, NTRS, AOC and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.24%: T, AMT, TXN, MA, HPQ, INTC, ORCL, ADBE, ADP, VZ and AAPL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Key Resistance Levels: 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Support Key Support Levels 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level
1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = Aug 27 Support Low The SPX regained Thursday’s modest move down and did not confirm the bearish harami. It did form an inside day spinning top which can signal a potential short term correction or pull back. After nine of the last eleven moving up with only two mini down days, it is prudent to recognize the potential for a move down. (click image to enlarge) Yes, the trend is still up and an intermediate term trader wants to stay with the trend, but those who take profits when the short term trend hits resistance wants to pay attention here just in case a pull back occurs, especially if the SPX breaks 1,061. The SPX is pausing at the 1,075 chart target which is a horizontal resistance area. If the SPX breaks out, look for it to rise to the next resistance area of 1,100. (click image to enlarge) As mentioned on Wednesday, here are the results on the real time virtual trades on September options that were closed on Wednesday September 16 and Friday September 18. These trades were placed live in Dave’s AT Trading Rooms and Chicago AT Workshop at the end of July. (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Stay with the trend you are trading. The SPX, Nasdaq, RUT and DJIA did NOT confirm the bearish harami formed on Thursday. Thursday is still the high day. 1,061 Wednesday's S1 level is a key short term support level. Short term traders continue to be on Yellow Alert. Remember that stocks at resistance or that broke out of horizontal resistance will likely pull back if the SPX pulls back. Potential Breakout Setups: DE, STT, JCG, JCI Breakout: RIMM, APOL, FSLR, JEC, MA, CAT, JOYG, BUCY, FWLT, AGU, DOW, FAST, AXP, DD, X, WHR, SPG, BDK, FLS, BIDU, NWSA, V, FLIR, AKAM, AMZN Pulling Back: WLT, TXN, WYNN, AMAT, ZION Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: XLNX, ADBE, MRVL, HOLX, BAC, INTC, HANS Potential Down Trend Setups: AGCO AAPL +0.47 QCOM -0.56 GOOG -0.26 BIDU +0.79 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX SBUX, CERN, FSLR, SHLD, LRCX, XLNX, NIHD, ILMN, TEVA, FWLT, KLAC, MXIM, STX, EXPD, URBN, BRCM, LIFE, ISRG, ALTR, BBBY, RIMM, HANS, CTAS and DTV. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PSYS, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, CBST, WAB, CLB, PCP, RBN, VAR, CLB, BIIB, GES, HDB, ESRX, BDX, DLTR, NTLS, MYGN, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, WCG, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, JEC, PWR, PWRD, RCI, RIMM, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, MUR, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, HLF, MHS, PPD, PSYS, SWN, SYNA, ALGT, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SPWRA, SLGN, AFAM, FSLR, JCOM, MOS, NFLX, HANS, ICE, MCD, APEI, DLB, DV Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 AMED, BKC Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 AMX, GILD, GR Staying Below 30 DMA BLUD, BYI, ORCL, WMT, CPLA, MON, SNA, ESI, STRA, CHL, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Slightly Higher Open on Options Expiration Friday...

2:00 pm ET - The SPX is inching its way higher reaching 1,071 after a flat opening...AAPL, GOOG and INDU are trading above average volume while other stocks like BIDU, FSLR and SPY are trading below average volume... BMO – ES +3 and NQ +5.25 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to higher open. GOOG +3.29, AAPL +1.05 and BIDU +2.75 are higher in pre-market trading. The SP futures are trading above Thursday’s close and below Thursday’s high, so continue to view the 1,075 area touched yesterday as a key resistance area on the cash SPX Wednesday’s large white candle S1 level is 1,061 which is now the short term support level. Keep trading the trend of the chart you have positions in, while looking for any move below Thursday’s low. Our recap of the gains realized on our real time virtual trades on ZION, FLS, GRMN, MA, PCLN, WHR and XLF that we closed on Wednesday will be postied today. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – AAPL – BIDU – FSLR – GOOGBDK – CAT – DOW – FLS – FWLT – WHR – X – JOYG – PCP – AXP – BAC – FAS – STT – ZION – WLT – FUQI – PWRD – FCX – CAM – ARO – GES – SPG – FLIR – JCI – FAST – JCG – UAUA –

Thursday, September 17, 2009

SPX Reaches 1,074.77...Chart Target From May...

DJIA -7.79 -0.08% SPX -3.27 -0.31% Nasdaq -6.40 -0.30% RUT -1.91 -0.31% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,344 1,355 Declining 1,705 1,372 Oil 72.47 -0.04 Gold 1,012.60 -6.60 SOX 321.33 -5.51 VIX 23.65 -0.04 The VIX moved down and did NOT confirm the move down in the SPX on Thursday. The SOX moved down and confirmed the move down in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLI +0.18%...XLV -0.07%...XLY -0.11% Weakest Sectors: XLU -0.67%...XLE -0.48%...XLB -0.46% Eight of nine sectors moved moderately lower on Thursday. Industrials, Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX -0.31%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.33%: C, MS, BAC, ALL, ICE, GS, JPM, CME, TROW and BK. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.38%: YHOO, AMT, AAPL, GOOG, EBAY, MSFT, MA, HPQ, CSCO, SYMC, IBM, ADP, EMC and DELL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Key Resistance Levels: 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Support Key Support Levels 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = August 27 Support Low The SPX reached 1,074.77 intra-day on Thursday, which has been the May breakout chart target of 1,075. The chart suggested on May 4 a time target of mid August or about 3 ½ months, it took 4 ½ months. Dave alerted you in early August that the time target likely would not be achieved and look more to mid to late September. Mid September and the target is reached. Ask yourself a very important question; who do you know of, that on May 4 thought the SPX would reach 1,075? The Chart is who you know. True, it was Chart Signals that brought the chart target to your attention and it was Chart Signals that did not waver and it was Chart Signals that helped you stay focused on the chart. Other than the Chart and Chart Signals I suspect you didn't name any one else. So what is your BGO? The talking heads are guessing, they did not know and they did not say at the beginning of May that the SPX would reach 1,075 in the next few months . The Chart and Chart Signals did. Now in all fairness the Chart shows probabilities, not certainties. But when you trust the probabilities the Chart shows, those probabilities can guide you with a much higher degree of reliability, especially as compared with the talking heads. In all fairness we probably should call them the guessing heads. Start trusting the Chart all the time. Why? Because it is more reliable than the emotional guesses of the talking heads. Guidance: Stay with the trend you are trading. The SPX, Nasdaq, RUT and DJIA paused on Thursday and formed a bearish harami. Wait for confirmation. Thursday is both the high day and a pause and slight pull back day. Short term traders continue to be on Yellow Alert. Many individual stocks closed at new highs while many others paused or pulled back. Remember that stocks at resistance or that broke out of horizontal resistance will likely pull back if the SPX pulls back. Potential Breakout Setups: DE, STT, JCG, JCI Breakout: APOL, FSLR, JEC, MA, CAT, JOYG, BUCY, FWLT, AGU, DOW, HOLX, WLT, FAST, AXP, DD, X, WHR, SPG, BDK, FLS, MRVL, BIDU, NWSA, V, FLIR, AKAM, BUCY, AMZN Pulling Back: TXN, WYNN, ADBE, XLNX, AMAT, ZION Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: BAC, INTC, HANS, AGCO Potential Down Trend Setups: AAPL +2.69 QCOM -0.69 GOOG +3.43 BIDU -3.72 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included ILMN, HANS, GENZ, YHOO, FSLR, APOL, JOYG, ATVI, VRTX, PPDI, FWLT, ESRX, AAPL, AMGN, HOLX, INFY, CTXS, CA and BBBY. Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PSYS, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, CBST, WAB, CLB, PCP, RBN, VAR, GR, CLB, BIIB, GES, HDB, ESRX, BDX, DLTR, NTLS, MYGN, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, WCG, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, JEC, PWR, PWRD, RCI, RIMM, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, AMX, ATW, EZPW, GILD, MUR, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, HLF, MHS, PPD, PSYS, SWN, SYNA, ALGT, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SPWRA, SLGN, AFAM, FSLR, JCOM, MOS, NFLX, HANS, ICE, MCD Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 APEI, DLB, DV Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 AMED, BKC, BLUD, BYI, ORCL Staying Below 30 DMA WMT, CPLA, MON, SNA, ESI, STRA, CHL, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Flat Opening...

BMO – ES +0.50 and NQ +0.50 futures are flat in pre-market trading pointing to flat open. GOOG +1.68, AAPL +0.61 and BIDU +0.09 are mixed in pre-market trading. The SP futures traded in a narrow 5 point range over night after the cash SPX moved towards the next level of resistance at 1,075 on Wednesday. Wednesday formed a large white candle and the S1 level is 1,061 which is now the short term support level. Keep trading the trend as we move towards options expiration Friday. Stay tuned later today for our recap of the gains realized on our real time virtual trades on ZION, FLS, GRMN, MA, PCLN, WHR and XLF… Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – AAPL – BIDU – BDK – CAT – DOW – FLS – FWLT – WHR – X – JOYG – PCP – AXP – BAC – FAS – ZION –
STT - WLT – FUQI – PWRD – FCX – CAM – MHS – TGT – ARO – GES – SPG – FLIR – JCI – FAST – JCG – UAUA –