Friday, December 30, 2016

2016 RUT Wins Followed by DJI, SPX and NDX...Happy New Year...Be Safe and Enjoy!



Sector Trend Strength:
Up Trend: XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE, XLK, XLP
Sideways: XLV, XLU, XLRE
Down Trend:

For the week ended December 30, one of ten sectors moved higher.
XLRE +1.38%, XLU -0.08%, XLP -0.67%, XLV -0.75%,
SPY -0.97%,
Lagging sectors XLB -1.13%, XLI -1.22%, XLK -1.25%, XLY -1.27%, XLE -1.35%, XLF -1.40%,

YTD 252
Leading Sectors: XLE +24.87%, XLF +20.15%, XLI +17.37%, XLB +14.46%, XLK +12.91%, XLU +12.22%,
SPY +9.64%,

Lagging Sectors: XLY +4.14%, XLP +2.42%, XLRE -2.19%, XLV -4.29%

Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,647 to 1,361 on the NYSE and decliners led 1,680 to 1,104 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +2
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +5
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Monday – Christmas Holiday Observance

Oil futures were up .04 to close at 53.89 on Friday.  


SPY down .82 at 223.53 on 108.9 million shares, 32% above average volume,
VIX up .67 at 14.04
TLT up .18 at 119.13…on 10.6 million shares, 5% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
DIA -0.24%, SPY -0.37%, IWM -0.38%, QQQ -1.03%,

On Friday, the last trading day of 2016, the SPY broke short-term support on above average volumeSo did QQQ.  That’s the bad news.

The good news is:
SPY volume was as much as 59% below average in the morning. 
A late volume surge in the last two hours sent the daily volume above average.  The majority of the late volume, 30.3 million shares, came in the last 60 minutes and it was buying volume.
Friday’s SPY volume looks like a mini-capitulation volume day.
The SPY hit its 30 DMA support and bounced.
IWM and DIA held above short-term support.
XLF and many of its component stocks were positive on Friday, meaning financials did not confirm the move lower.
XLRE moved higher to short-term resistance and is a horizontal resistance breakout setup.
Breadth in decliners vs. advancers was not as overwhelming one would expect for a break of support.
Big buyers came in the last hour of trading going into a three-day weekend, look for potential continuation on Tuesday.

Prepare to be defensive if SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA break and stay below their short-term support levels of the past two weeks.


SPX down 10.43 at 2,238

SPX losers NVDA, NEM, AA, SWKS, NUE, FCX, AMZN, CHK, OI, NFX, REGN, FIS, EA, AVGO, NWSA, VMC, QRVO, WRK, TXN, MU, CI, MNST, CMCSA, MRO, FLSR, MLM, CHTR, LEG, ABC, DRI, NWL, SBUX, SPLS, CHD, SYMC, GOOG, CBS, KSS

QQQ broke below old resistance, new short-term, support after staying above for twelve days.
  
NDX point losers: AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, NVDA, CMCSA, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, AMGN, CHTR, SBUX, TXN and CSCO


2016 in Review
2016 Returns are in and there was quite a dispersion:
RUT = 19.48%
DJI = 13.42%
SPX = 9.54%
NDX = 5.92%

                   (click image to enlarge)



2016 Strongest Sectors:  XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB
                  (click image to enlarge) 


2016 Weakest Sectors:  XLV, XLRE, XLP, XLY
                  (click image to enlarge)


2016 RUT Leaders:  CLF, FMSA, AKS, AMD
                  (click image to enlarge)

2016 DJIA Leaders:  CAT, UNH, GS, CVX
                  (click image to enlarge) 


2016 SPX Leaders:  OKE, FCX, NEM, PWR (NVDA in NDX)
                  (click image to enlarge)

2016 NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, MU, TMUS
                  (click image to enlarge)




2016 Q4 EPS
EPS Positive Reactions
MU, CAG, NKE, KMX, CCL, JBL
EPS Negative Reactions
RHT, BBBY, FINL, AGN, FDX, GIS, ADBE


Follow your rules and look for potential re-entry if you were stopped out of any profitable trades.

Continue to move up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.  If you moved stops you may have been stopped out today.


Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: IWM, TSLA, COST, NVDA, MU, WDC, AMAT, XLNX, AVGO, NFLX, MAR, LRCX, CMCSA, CTXS, INTC, TXN, KLAC, PAYX, FISV, SOXL, ZION, CFG, SCHW, STI, JPM, C, BAC, USB, GS, SQ, ALK, DAL, LUV, UAL, MCD, DISCA, GOOG, TMUS,

One Day Pullback: CHTR, ADP,

Bull Flag Bounces include:

At Support Setups include: SPY, PWR, MGM, FAS, CMA, ETFC, HBAN, KEY, MS, RF, HIG, CCL, MSFT, TSCO, CE, BHI, STLD, AAL, CAR, CC, ATVI, ATI, PCLN, DAL, FAST, ICE, ADSK, STX, NCLH, BBY, EA, CSX, NUE, HAL, ADI, AKS, RCL, HES, GD,

Support Bounce:

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: TRV, LNG, AAPL, STX, CHKP, FTI,
EBAY, BA, UTX, MMM

Horizontal Breakouts include:

New Highs include: ADP,


Break of Support: UPS, ROST, SBUX, WBA, APA, PCAR, X,


______________________


Short-term Movers for the week:
SPX gainers:  AGN, NEM, MAC, EXR, VTR, UDR, COG, EQR, PSA, HCN, PLD, DLR, +10, 0,  +4, 2
SPX losers:  MNK, CHK, AA, QRVO BBY, FCX, NFX, APA, MRO, -4, 11

NDX gainers:  MYL, ENDP, SHPG, BIDU, +4, 0
NDX losers:  MU, SWKS, REGN, ALXN, NTES, AAL, WDC, BMRN, AVGO, MAT, NVDA, GILD, MNST, -4, 2,

YTD: 252
SPX Leaders:  OKE, FCX, NEM, PWR, SE, CMA, MLM, HAL, ZION, CHK (363, -14, > 10p 265, -7)
SPX Losers:  FSLR, PRGO, GCI, AGN, LB, HRB, UAA, MNK, MCK, FOSL

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, MU, CHTR, TMUS, CSX, ULTA, PCAR, TXN, LRCX, (64, -1, >10p 43, -2)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, TRIP, VRTX, ALXN, ILMN, REGN, MYL, GILD, LBTYA, NCLH

DJI Leaders:  CAT, UNH, GS, CVX, JPM, IBM, MMM, XOM, VZ, UTX, (27, -1, >10p 17, +0

DJI Losers:  NKE, KO, DIS


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

CTAS, HAS, HOLX and KLAC were added to the NDX on Dec 19BBBY, NTAP, SRCL and WFM were removed in the annual changes to the NASDAQ-100.


The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 81 bullish.  Prepare to become defensive. 

7 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

38 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
ENDP

Moving Below 30 DMA = 15
AMZN, BIDU, CA, CMCSA, CSX, EA, FOXA, GOOG, HSIC, KLAC, MNST, PYPL, TSCO, TXN, ULTA


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Light Trading Again as Support Holds on SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM...NVDA Finds Support Leads NDX...


Sector Trend Strength:
Up Trend: XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE, XLK, XLP
Sideways: XLV, XLU, XLRE
Down Trend:


Breadth strengthened as advancers led 1,783 to 1,219 on the NYSE and decliners led 1,409 to 1,363 on the NASDAQ.

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +5
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Monday – Christmas Holiday Observance
Friday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

Oil futures were up .19 to close at 53.85 on Thursday.  


SPY down .05 at 224.35 on 48.6 million shares, 39% below average volume,
VIX up .42 at 13.37
TLT up .42 at 118.95…on 8.5 million shares, 14% below average volume

Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.09%, SPY -0.02%, DIA -0.05%, QQQ -0.14%,


Broad market SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA held at support with below average volume on Thursday.

NVDA sold off to 102.80 before rallying more than $8 to be the strongest stock in the NDX on Thursday.

Look for a potential support bounce on Friday or Tuesday in the market and sector ETFs.

Prepare to be defensive if SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA break below their short-term support levels of the past two weeks.


SPX down .66 at 2,249

SPX gainers NEM, DLR, ETR, NVDA, LNT, PNW, ER, PCG, WEC, XEL, EIX, ES, AGN, WY, FRT, CHD, EXC, PEG, AEE, AEP, PLD, KIM, ED, O, NI, NEE, DUK, ABC, EQR, HCP, CNP, PPL, CMS, HRL, CSRA, RTN, TAP, EW

QQQ formed a spinning top on Thursday and is a bull flag setup.  QQQ did stay above old resistance for the twelfth straight day.
  
NDX point losers: AMZN, FB, CMCSA, GILD, TSLA, GOOG, MSFT, REGN and MU


2016 Q4 EPS
EPS Positive Reactions
MU, CAG, NKE, KMX, CCL, JBL
EPS Negative Reactions
RHT, BBBY, FINL, AGN, FDX, GIS, ADBE


Follow your rules and look for potential re-entry if you were stopped out of any profitable trades.

Continue to move up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.  If you moved stops you may have been stopped out today.


Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: QQQ, IWM, DIA, COST, NVDA, MU, AMAT, XLNX, AVGO, NFLX, MAR, LRCX, ZION, CFG, SCHW, CMCSA, SOXL, STI, JPM, C, PAYX, FISV, SQ, ALK, CTXS, INTC, TXN, BAC, DAL, LUV, UAL, WDC, MCD, MSFT, DISCA, GOOG, TSCO, USB, GS, KLAC,


One Day Pullback: TSLA,

Bull Flag Bounces include: CHTR,

At Support Setups include: SPY, CMA, ETFC, HBAN, KEY, MS, RF, HIG, UPS, CE, BHI, STLD, AAL, CAR, CC, ATVI, ATI, PCLN, PWR, DAL, FAST, ICE, ADSK, FAS, MGM, STX,

Support Bounce:

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: CHTR, LNG, AAPL, STX, CHKP, FTI,
EA, EBAY, TRV, CSX, NUE, HAL, ADI, TMUS, AKS, X, RCL, CCL, GD, BA, UTX, MMM, HES,

Horizontal Breakouts include:

New Highs include: ADP,

Break of Support: APA, NCLH, PCAR, ROST, SBUX, WBA, BBY,


______________________


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

CTAS, HAS, HOLX and KLAC were added to the NDX on Dec 19BBBY, NTAP, SRCL and WFM were removed in the annual changes to the NASDAQ-100.


The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 86 bullish

46 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

51 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
BIDU, HSIC, ULTA

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
AAL, NXPI, STX, SWKS

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Broad Selloff as Volume Increases but Remains Below Average...NVDA Drops Following Short-seller Comments...


Sector Trend Strength:
Up Trend: XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE, XLK, XLP
Sideways: XLV, XLU, XLRE
Down Trend:


Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,199 to 813 on the NYSE and led 2,054 to 733 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Monday – Christmas Holiday Observance
Friday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Thursday – weakened, decliners led, +3

Oil futures were down .23 to close at 53.66 on Wednesday.   


SPY down 1.87 at 224.40 on 64.0 million shares, 23% below average volume,
VIX up .96 at 12.95
TLT up .86 at 118.53…on 7.5 million shares, 27% below average volume

Technical Commentary:
DIA -0.57%, QQQ -0.78%, SPY -0.83%, IWM -1.02%,


Broad market SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA sold off on below average volume on Wednesday.

NVDA attracted short-seller comments and was the largest loser in the SPX and NDX after its amazing rally since its earnings report in November.

If traders have been moving stops up to protect profits as we have encouraged each day in Chart Signals, many positions may have been stopped out today as many bearish candles were formed that broke below Tuesday’s lows.  Other traders may move stops based on Wednesday’s bearish candle patterns.  As always follow your rules.

Prepare to be defensive if SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA break below their short-term support levels of the past two weeks.


SPX down 19 at 2,249

SPX Losers NVDA, CHK, MNK, FSLR, MOS, GRMN, PRGO, ALB, APA, IVZ, NOV, MUR, WMB, BBY, AN, OKE, LM, MU, QCOM, ADS, URI, GT, NTAP, ETFC, SYF, FTR, ALK, RIG, AYI, SCG, R, XRX, CNC

QQQ formed a bearish engulfing candle pattern on Wednesday following its new all-time closing high on Tuesday.  QQQ did stay above old resistance for the eleventh straight day.
  
NDX point losers: NVDA, AAPL, FB, QCOM, GOOG, MSFT, INTC, CSCO, GILD, CMCSA, NFLX, WBA, AVGO and TXN


2016 Q4 EPS
EPS Positive Reactions
MU, CAG, NKE, KMX, CCL, JBL
EPS Negative Reactions
RHT, BBBY, FINL, AGN, FDX, GIS, ADBE


Follow your rules and look for potential re-entry if you were stopped out of any profitable trades.

Continue to move up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.  If you moved stops you may have been stopped out today.


Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: COST, PAYX, FISV, SQ, TSCO, USB, GS, ALK, CTXS, INTC, FDX, UPS, CHTR, DISCA, GOOG, MAR, BAC, DAL, LUV, UAL, WDC, MCD, MSFT,


One Day Pullback: NVDA, MU, SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA, AVGO, ZION, CFG, SCHW, ADP, CMCSA, SOXL, STI, XLNX, LRCX, AMAT, JPM, C, CMA, ETFC, HBAN, KEY, MS, RF, HIG, CHK,

Bull Flag Bounces include:

At Support Setups include: CE, APA, BHI, STLD, AAL, CAR, NCLH, CC, ATVI, ATI, PCLN, PCAR, PWR, DAL, FAST, ICE, ADSK, FAS, MGM,

Support Bounce:

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: LNG, NFLX, AAPL, STX, CHKP, FTI,
EA, EBAY, TRV, CSX, NUE, HAL, ADI, KLAC, TMUS, AKS, X, RCL, CCL, GD, BA, UTX, MMM, HES,

Horizontal Breakouts include:

New Highs include: TSLA,

Break of Support: ROST, SBUX, WBA, BBY,

______________________


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

CTAS, HAS, HOLX and KLAC were added to the NDX on Dec 19BBBY, NTAP, SRCL and WFM were removed in the annual changes to the NASDAQ-100.


The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 89 bullish

3 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

53 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 14
ADBE, DISCA, FAST, HSIC, INTU, ISRG, LBTYA, MXIM, NTES, PYPL, QCOM, SIRI, SYMC, ULTA,


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral