Saturday, May 30, 2009

Friday, May 29, 2009

Markets Surge in Last 15 MInutes of Trading...

DJIA + 96.53, +1.15% SP500 + 12.31, +1.36% NASDAQ Comp. + 22.54, +1.29% Russell 2000 + 9.37, +1.90% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,181 1,927 Declining 770 845 Oil $66.31 +$1.23 Gold $978.80 +$17.30 SOX 271.31 +2.66 VIX 28.92 -2.75 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Friday. Strongest Sectors: XLB +2.99%...XLI +2.41%...XLE +1.87% Weakest Sectors: XLU +0.71%...XLK +1.09%...XLP +1.09% All nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Materials, Industrials, Energy, Financial, Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +1.36%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +1.83%: PNC, RF, STT, NTRS, SPG, TRV, MS, WFC, IVZ, TROW, SCHW, AXP and ETFs UYG and FAS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.09% include: YHOO, GLW, SYMC, MA, ADBE, AMT, MSFT, ORCL, GOOG, EBAY, IBM and QCOM. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLY Down Trending: XLU SPX Key resistance levels: 930 = horizontal & 200 DMA 944 = January horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 913 = Friday’s S1 907 = Friday’s S2 899 = Thursday’s S1 875 = horizontal The SPX is within 9 points of its 200 DMA which is the closest that it has been to the key long term resistance level in over a year! This is significant and should the SPX be able to break through its 200 DMA would suggest higher levels for the current three month up trend. We originally posted the 3 month chart target listed for each index under Index Commentary on May 4, 2009. We have posted those numbers each day since and commented last Friday on that fact. Here’s why…the current three month trend is Up…the trend of the past four weeks is sideways also referred to as a consolidation. A consolidation that follows an up trend is generally resolved in the direction of the prior trend…in this case Up. Since that is the more likely outcome we have left those numbers posted so you would keep that bigger picture in mind. While those chart targets are only a probability and not a certainty, there is no technical indication on the chart since May 4 that those targets are unreachable. The four week trend is sideways and on Friday neared the 925 to 930 resistance area. A sideways trend will continue to bounce between support and resistance until it breaks either support or resistance. As price nears resistance you must be prepared for a potential bounce down or a potential breakout and then trade what actually occurs. On Monday keep your attention focused for either a bounce down or a breakout. Should a breakout occur next week we believe it will be supported by the financials which have been the strongest sector since the March low. (click image to enlarge) Index Commentary The DJIA formed a large white candle that closed above Wednesday’s R3 and above its 8,405 horizontal resistance…8,405 to 8,587 has bee a key resistance congestion zone…three month chart target 10,340…volume was 361 million shares, the second highest volume day of the past 14 trading days…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX formed a large white candle that closed above Wednesday’s R3 level…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The Nasdaq had a new high close on Friday of 1,774.33 its highest close since November 4, 2008…while the Nasdaq is still in the area of horizontal resistance, the new high close carries bullish implications…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30 50 and 200 DMA. The RUT formed a large white candle that confirmed Thursday’s hammer….3 month chart target 606…closed at its 20 DMA and above its 30 and 50 DMA. At the Open on Friday SPY – white spinning top at 200 DMA confirmed Thursday’s hammer +1.77% KOL – doji +2.81% FAS – white candle confirms hammer +5.60% CTV – white candle +5.34% JOYG – white spinning top close above horizontal resistance +4.17% STT – white candle breakout of horizontal resistance +3.94% X – white candle breakout of horizontal resistance, new high close +3.90% ADBE – white candle confirms hammer new high close +2.32% EL – white candle confirms hammer +2.00% WAB – white candle just below 30 DMA +1.94% OSG – black hanging man +1.81% TRLG – doji new high close just above horizontal resistance +1.01% USD – hanging man +0.96% STLD – hanging man at horizontal resistance +0.74% SHLD – black candle +0.16% ZION – doji -0.44% JNPR – spinning top -0.60% LEAP – hammer after gap down on news of stock offering -0.79% PWRD – hanging man, potential bearish harami -1.53% Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, K, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, ACN, JOYG, MUR, PSYS, CHL, MOS, DV, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, CPLA, SPWRA, SYNA, X, MCD, BDX, CBST, AAPL, AFAM, DLTR, ESRX, GES, GXDX, ORCL, RBN, USD, WRC, DECK, FAS, WMT Moving Above 30 DMA = 5 CPLA, JEC, MYGN, PWR, URE Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA DV, APEI, DLB, ESI, HANS, JOSB, SNA, STRA, URE, MON, WAB, NTLS, AMED, PETS, SNHY, AMZN, EZPW, JW.A, JEC, PWR, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

1:41 pm ET - In our Model Portfolio (see Learn the Discipline in the left hand column for details) we bought 4 ESM9 contracts at 9:16:06 am MT for 906.00...at 11:40:23 am MT we sold 4 contracts for 909.25 for a gain of 650.00, after entry and exit commissions of 28 it was a net gain of 622.00 in just over 2 hours...if you have an interest in trading futures please see Futures Trading in the left hand menu under Key Topics...today's range bound market has made catching a strong trend non-existent, but there have still been opportunities present... 12:17 pm ET - The ES has settled into a trading range of 10 points with a high of 912.25 and low of 902.25 during the first 30 minutes of trading...since that time price has bounced between the high and low...currently right in the 907.25...unless something changes looks like we'll see a range bound trading day... 11:05 am ET - In our Model Portfolio (see Learn the Discipline) we bought 4 ESM9 contracts at 7:55:11 am MT for 905.00...at 9:03:24 am MT we sold 4 contracts at 908.25 for a gain of 650.00, after entry and exit commissions of 28 it was a net gain of 622.00 in just over an hour...if you have an interest in futures trading please see Futures Trading in the left hand menu... 10:10 am ET - ES pulled back to 902.25 in the first 20 minutes of trading and have bounced giving a nice support bounce entry opportunity...overnight high was 913.50 which is near the 912.25 reached in the first 15 minutes...this area represents short term resistance... BMO - ES +5 and NQ +4 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. If SPX moves above Wednesday's 914 high, this week's resistance...look for the SPX to rise to the 924 resistance. Look at these charts for Friday... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY – hammer KOL – hanging man new high close SHLD – doji ADBE – hammer STLD – hanging man at horizontal resistance CTV – doji EL – hammer JOYG – hanging man at horizontal resistance USD – hanging man JNPR – white candle breakout continuation STT – white candle at horizontal resistance FAS – hammer ZION – hammer OSG – white candle confirm inverted hammer LEAP – gap down on news of stock offering WAB – doji TRLG – spinning top at horizontal resistance PWRD – large white candle breakout continuation X – spinning top at horizontal resistance

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Stocks, Oil, Gold Rise Coninue Narrow Trading Range...

DJIA + 103.78, +1.25% SP500 + 13.77, +1.54% NASDAQ Comp. + 20.71, +1.20% Russell 2000 + 2.35, +0.48% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,988 1,516 Declining 981 1,194 Oil $65.08 +$1.63 Gold $961.50 +$8.20 SOX 268.65 +4.71 VIX 31.67 -0.69 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday. Strongest Sectors: XLE +3.32%...XLF +2.83%...XLU +2.07% Weakest Sectors: XLB -0.39%...XLV +0.51%...XLI +0.97% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Energy, Financials, Utilities, and Materials were stronger than the SPX +1.54%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.83%: AFL, CME, PNC, JPM, KEY, USB, ICE, MET, TROW, IVZ, NTRS, SPG, BAC, AXP, STT, GS, SCHW, ALL, MS, WFC and ETFs UYG and FAS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.45% include: DELL, MA, SYMC, EBAY, ADP, T, AMAT, AMT, IBM, INTC, CSCO, MSFT, TXN and AAPL. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLY Down Trending: XLU SPX Key resistance levels: 902 = Weekly R1 924 = horizontal 935 = 200 DMA Key support levels: 899 = Tuesday’s S1 891 = 38.2% Fib level 875 = horizontal 866 = 61.8% Fib level Tuesday thrust, Wednesday pause pull back, Thursday thrust…have we seen this pattern before? Stock prices recovered much of Wednesday's sell off as the government's seven year note auction went through without any negative surprises. During this holiday shortened week the SPX trading range has been 32 points. We had been expecting 40 to 45 points as stated last Friday in the Weekly Wrap. If the SPX rises tomorrow it would have to hit 921 to 926 to achieve our range forecast. Gold prices moved higher on Thursday and gold stocks with big moves include AEM, NEM, GOLD, GDX, GLD and GG. Steel stocks ATI, X, STLD, AKS and SCHN made solid gains on Thursday. Coal stocks KOL, BTU, CNX, MEE and WLT also rose on Thursday. Index Commentary The DJIA formed a large white candle that closed above Wednesday’s R1 and at its 8,405 horizontal resistance… three month chart target 10,340…volume was 290 million shares…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX formed a large white candle that closed above Wednesday’s R1 level…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a hanging man at horizontal resistance…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30 50 and 200 DMA. The RUT formed a hammer….3 month chart target 606…closed at its 20 DMA and above its 30 and 50 DMA. At the Open on Thursday SPY – hammer KOL – hanging man new high close SHLD – doji ADBE – hammer STLD – hanging man at horizontal resistance CTV – doji EL – hammer JOYG – hanging man at horizontal resistance USD – hanging man JNPR – white candle breakout continuation STT – white candle at horizontal resistance FAS – hammer ZION – hammer OSG – white candle confirm inverted hammer LEAP – gap down on news of stock offering WAB – doji TRLG – spinning top at horizontal resistance PWRD – large white candle breakout continuation X – spinning top at horizontal resistance Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, K, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, ACN, JOYG, MUR, PSYS, CHL, MOS, DV, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, CPLA, SPWRA, SYNA, X, MCD, BDX, CBST, AAPL, AFAM, DLTR, ESRX, GES, GXDX, ORCL, RBN, USD, WRC Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 DECK, FAS, WMT Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 CPLA, DV Staying Below 30 DMA APEI, DLB, ESI, HANS, JOSB, SNA, STRA, URE, MON, WAB, NTLS, AMED, PETS, SNHY, AMZN, EZPW, JW.A, JEC, PWR, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Flat Open...

BMO - ES +1.50 and NQ +3.00 are near unchanged in pre-market trading, about 75 minutes before the open, pointing to a flat opening. Watch the 891 and 875 support levels and the 902 resistance area which is Wednesday's R1 level. Look at these charts for Thursday morning... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – dark cloud cover KOL – tombstone doji SHLD – shooting star bearish harami ADBE – bearish harami STLD – shooting star like at horizontal resistance CTV – spinning top EL – bearish harami JOYG – shooting star at horizontal resistance USD – black spinning top JNPR – shooting star doji STT – bearish harami FAS – dark cloud cover ZION – black spinning top OSG – inverted hammer LEAP – shooting star new high close WAB – black spinning top TRLG – white candle at horizontal resistance PWRD – large white candle bull flag breakout X – shooting star at horizontal resistance

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

SPX Closes Below S1...Bearish Harami Wednesday...

DJIA - 173.47, -2.05% SP500 - 17.27, -1.90% NASDAQ Comp. - 19.35, -1.11% Russell 2000 - 10.45, -2.09% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 868 957 Declining 2,119 1,787 Oil $61.45 +$1.00 Gold $953.30 -$0.00 SOX 263.94 +4.12 VIX 32.36 +1.74 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Wednesday. Strongest Sectors: XLK -0.98%...XLV -1.02%...XLE -1.09% Weakest Sectors: XLB -3.75%...XLI -3.25%...XLF -2.99% All nine sectors moved lower on Wednesday. Technology, Healthcare and Energy were stronger than the SPX -1.90%. Financial stocks weaker than XLF -2.99%: KEY, AFL, WFC, TRV, SCHW, TROW, ALL, USB, IVZ, JPM, PNC, ZION, BK, AXP, CB, MET and AOC. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.98% include: SYMC, AAPL, AMAT, EMC, AMT, GOOG, ADP, TXN, INTC, DELL, HPQ, ORCL and MA. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLY Down Trending: XLU SPX Key resistance levels: 902 = Weekly R1 924 = horizontal 935 = 200 DMA Key support levels: 899 = Tuesday’s S1 891 = 38.2% Fib level 875 = horizontal 866 = 61.8% Fib level Tuesday thrust, Wednesday pause pull back…have we seen this pattern before? After spending most of Wednesday near breakeven the market sold off during the last two hours of the trading day. The sell off is being attributing to rising government bond yields. The SPX fell back to its 891 Fib support level after breaking thorough short term resistance at 902 on Tuesday. This is a trading range market in which a trader has to find the leading stocks for long positions. Watch key support levels on Thursday. Tom Sosnoff and Dave have both been suggesting TBT as a way to take advantage of rising interest rates for several months now. (click image to enlarge) Gold prices moved lower on Wednesday as did gold stocks AEM, NEM, GOLD, GDX, GLD and GG. While Steel stocks X and STLD rose on Wednesday, they sold off at horizontal resistance as did SCHN and AKS. ATI already in a short term down trend fell to horizontal support. Over the past three weeks the SPX has flattened out below its 200 DMA in sideways trading range, short term traders are again on Yellow Alert as today was again a high day. Index CommentaryYellow Alert The DJIA formed a large black candle that closed below Tuesday’s S1 and 20 DMA … three month chart target 10,340…volume was 286 million shares…closed above its 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX formed a black candle that closed below its 20 DMA and just below Tuesday’s S1 level…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 30 and 50 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a bearish harami…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30 50 and 200 DMA. The RUT formed a bearish harami that closed above Tuesday’s S1 and below its 20 DMA bullish engulfing pattern….3 month chart target 606…closed above its 30 and 50 DMA At the Open on Wednesday SPY – dark cloud cover KOL – tombstone doji SHLD – shooting star bearish harami ADBE – bearish harami STLD – shooting star like at horizontal resistance CTV – spinning top EBAY – black candle EL – bearish harami JOYG – shooting star at horizontal resistance USD – black spinning top JNPR – shooting star doji SCHN – bearish harami STT – bearish harami FAS – dark cloud cover URE – black spinning top ZION – black spinning top OSG – inverted hammer LEAP – shooting star new high close WAB – black spinning top Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, K, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, ACN, JOYG, MUR, PSYS, CHL, MOS, DV, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, CPLA, SPWRA, SYNA, X, MCD, BDX, CBST, AAPL, AFAM, DLTR, ESRX, GES, GXDX, ORCL, RBN, USD, WRC Moving Above 30 DMA = 0 Moving Below 30 DMA = 10 APEI, DLB, ESI, FAS, HANS, JOSB, SNA, STRA, URE, WMT Staying Below 30 DMA MON, WAB, NTLS, AMED, PETS, SNHY, AMZN, EZPW, JW.A, JEC, PWR, DECK, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Flat to Lower Open...

BMO - ES -2 and NQ -5 are slightly lower in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to lower opening. The mid-section of Tuesday's large white candle S1 is short term support. Keep in mind the primary price action patter of the the last 11 weeks one to two thrust days and one to two pause to pull back days. Many new stocks had a new high close on Tuesday which is also bullish. Look at these charts... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – bullish engulfing KOL – bullish engulfing ZION – large white candle support bounce SHLD – piercing line ADBE – large white candle new high close LEAP – bullish engulfing new high close STLD – large white candle new high close CTV – shooting star EBAY – white candle EL – white candle confirms bullish harami JOYG – large white candle new high close USD – bullish engulfing JNPR – bullish engulfing SCHN – bullish engulfing STT – bullish engulfing FAS – bullish engulfing URE – bullish engulfing OSG – spinning top WAB – piercing line

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Bullish Engulfing Tuesday...Trend Wins Again...

DJIA + 196.17, +2.27% SP500 + 23.33, +2.63% NASDAQ Comp. + 58.42, +3.45% Russell 2000 + 22.69, +4.75% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,508 2,124 Declining 476 641 Oil $62.45 +$0.78 Gold $953.30 -$5.60 SOX 259.82 +9.36 VIX 30.62 -2.01 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Tuesday. Strongest Sectors: XLI +3.64%...XLY +3.37%...XLF +3.26% Weakest Sectors: XLV +0.91%...XLP +1.26%...XLE +2.12% All nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Utilities were stronger than the SPX +2.63%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +3.26%: ZION, BK, USB, JPM, SPG, IVZ, AFL, NTRS, WFC, PNC, AXP, TROW, SCHW, GS, CME, STT, CB and ETFs UYG and FAS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK +2.60% include: AAPL, ADBE, QCOM, GLW, EMC, T, CSCO, AMT, IBM, MSFT, INTC, VZ, ADP, GOOG, TXN and DELL. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLY Down Trending: XLU SPX Key resistance levels: 902 = Weekly R1 924 = horizontal 935 = 200 DMA Key support levels: 899 = Tuesday’s S1 891 = 38.2% Fib level 875 = horizontal 866 = 61.8% Fib level The markets opened after Memorial Day with strong buying. DJIA volume jumped from 244 million on Friday to 314 million on Tuesday. Many stocks and indices formed bullish engulfing or large white candles today. The SPX broke through the 902 resistance today leaving the 925 to 935 area as the next major resistance area. This has been the resistance area of the past three weeks. On Friday in the Weekly Wrap webcast Dave gave 40 to 45 points to the upside as the probable range for this week if the market bounced at support. The SPX achieved half of that today Gold prices moved down on Tuesday. Gold stocks GDX, GLD and AEM moved lower while NEM, GOLD and GG moved higher. Steel stocks SCHN, AKS, ATI, X and STLD rose more than the broad market on Tuesday. While we know that technical analysis is based on probabilities and not certainties, you may have noticed that even last week as the market was pulling back that we continued to list the three months price target to the upside on all four indices. We believe in staying focused on the higher probability until the chart signals tell us the high probabilities are failing. Index Commentary The DJIA formed a bullish engulfing pattern confirming Friday’s inverted hammer … three month chart target 10,340…volume was 314 million shares…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX formed a large white candle outside day confirming Friday’s inverted hammer…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a bullish engulfing pattern…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30 50 and 200 DMA. The RUT formed a bullish engulfing pattern….3 month chart target 606…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA At the Open on Tuesday SPY – bullish engulfing KOL – bullish engulfing SHLD – piercing line ADBE – large white candle new high close STLD – large white candle new high close CTV – shooting star EBAY – white candle EL – white candle confirms bullish harami JOYG – large white candle new high close USD – bullish engulfing JNPR – bullish engulfing SCHN – bullish engulfing STT – bullish engulfing FAS – bullish engulfing URE – bullish engulfing ZION – large white candle support bounce OSG – spinning top LEAP – bullish engulfing new high close WAB – piercing line Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, K, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, STRA, ACN, JOYG, MUR, PSYS, CHL, MOS, DV, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, CPLA, SPWRA, SYNA, X, MCD, BDX, APEI, CBST Moving Above 30 DMA = 15 AAPL, AFAM, DLB, ESI, ESRX, FAS, GES, HANS, JOSB, ORCL, RBN, SNA, URE, USD, WRC Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 MON Staying Below 30 DMA WAB, NTLS, AMED, PETS, SNHY, WMT, AMZN, EZPW, GXDX, JW.A, JEC, PWR, DLTR, DECK, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Lower Opening

10:40 am ET - at least for the early going...Trend wins again...support bounce rather that support break...I hope you were prepared and positioned to profit 10:00 am ET - ES took a big jump up +14 points from its open and +8 for the day... 9:56 am ET - SPX and stocks did open lower and almost immediately began to rise...SPY which open over 60 cents lower is up 14 cents...SHLD, STLD and WAB are all seeing support bounces...ADBE, EL and JOYG on the move... BMO - ES -3 and NQ -6 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. The SPX and many stocks are near support this morning. Trend suggests that a support bounce is more probable, however traders must be alert for potential support break and trade in the direction of price action. Look at these charts this morning... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – black spinning top -0.21% KOL – black spinning top +2.21% SHLD – earnings gap +10.38% ADBE – white candle +1.57% STLD – white spinning top +4.76% CTV – large white candle +14.32% EBAY – piercing line +1.22% EL – bullish harami +1.12% JOYG – bullish harami +0.07% USD – black spinning top -0.48% JNPR – white shooting star -0.51% SCHN – inverted hammer -0.56% STT – white spinning top -0.99% FAS – black candle -3.09% URE – black candle -5.34% ZION – black candle -3.12% OSG – black candle -3.01% LEAP – doji inside day in bull flag WAB – black candle at support

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Friday, May 22, 2009

SPX Rises...Closes Slightly Lower...

Memorial Day Weekend - Thank you to all who have served our Great Country! DJIA - 14.81, -0.18% SP500 - 1.33, -0.15% NASDAQ Comp. - 3.24, -0.19% Russell 2000 - 3.60, -0.75% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,975 1,220 Declining 1,686 1,473 Oil $61.67 +$0.62 Gold $958.90 +$7.70 SOX 250.46 +0.06 VIX 32.63 +1.28 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. Strongest Sectors: XLY +1.07%...XLU +0.82%...XLP +0.61% Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.68%...XLB -0.38%...XLI -0.37% Consumer Discretionary, Utilities, Consumer Staples, Technology, Healthcare and Energy were stronger than the SPX -0.15%. XLF was the weakest sector but down only -0.68%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF: CME, ICE, TRV, NTRS, TROW, CB, AFL, IVZ, SCHW, MS, ALL, PNC and GS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK -1.75% include: TXN, ADBE, GLW, EBAY, ADP, YHOO, AMT and ORCL. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLY, XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI Down Trending: XLU SPX Key resistance levels: 902 = Weekly R1 924 = horizontal 936 = 200 DMA Key support levels: 891 = 38.2% Fib level 875 = horizontal 866 = 61.8% Fib level Stock prices traded in a narrow trading price range on light volume on Friday heading into the three day Memorial Day weekend. The SPX which spent most of the day slightly higher sold off in the last hour of the day in a similar manner as on Tuesday and Wednesday. The SPX finished up just one point from Monday’s open even though it rose 27 points on Monday. The SPX closed above Thursday’s low and about 12 points above horizontal support in the 875 area. Watch the SPX closely on Monday for a potential support break. The SPX is near support. The trend indicates to look for bullish trades. Keep in mind that support is a pivot point where if broken you should be prepared for price to fall to the next support level. Oil and gold prices rose on Friday in part due to a falling dollar. Gold stocks GDX, GLD, NEM, AEM, GOLD and GG all moved higher. Steel stocks were mixed with ATI and STLD moving higher and SCHN, X and AKS moved slightly lower on Friday. Index Commentary The DJIA formed a black inverted hammer inside … three month chart target 10,340…volume was a light at 244 million shares…closed just below its 20 DMA and above its 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX formed a black inverted hammer closing below it 20 DMA and 38.2% Fib level…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed 30 and 50 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a black spinning top inside day…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed below its 20, 30 and 200 DMA and above its 50 DMA. The RUT formed a black spinning top inside day…closed below its 30 DMA….3 month chart target 606…closed above its 50 DMA At the Open on Friday SPY – black spinning top -0.21% KOL – black spinning top +2.21% SHLD – earnings gap +10.38% ADBE – white candle +1.57% STLD – white spinning top +4.76% CTV – large white candle +14.32% EBAY – piercing line +1.22% EL – bullish harami +1.12% JOYG – bullish harami +0.07% USD – black spinning top -0.48% JNPR – white shooting star -0.51% SCHN – inverted hammer -0.56% NFLX – black candle inside day -0.79% STT – white spinning top -0.99% FAS – black candle -3.09% URE – black candle -5.34% ZION – black candle -3.12% OSG – black candle -3.01% WYNN – black candle at horizontal support -3.40% Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, K, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, STRA, ACN, JOYG, MON, MUR, PSYS, CHL, MOS, DV, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, CPLA, SPWRA, SYNA, X, MCD, BDX Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 APEI, CBST Moving Below 30 DMA = 4 AFAM, DLB, ESI, FAS Staying Below 30 DMA AAPL, ESRX, HANS, RBN, USD, WAB, URE, NTLS, JOSB, AMED, PETS, GES, WRC, SNA, SNHY, WMT, AMZN, EZPW, GXDX, JW.A, JEC, PWR, DLTR, DECK, ORCL, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Pointing to a Slightly Higher Open...

2:09 pm ET - Since our last post the ES fell to 889 and bounced to 893...so it looks like the assessment of trading range is what has taken place... 1:25 pm ET - I had to step away for the past two hours and coming back I see the market pulled back about four points and has returned to the level when I left...resistance on the ES is at 894.50 a break above this level would give a price target of 899...we'll watch closely due to the three day weekend beginning at the close in just over two hours traders may just keep it in the 889 to 894 range... 10:23 am ET - in our Learn the Discipline Model Portfolio (see Learn the Discipline in the left hand menu for details) we bought 4 ESM9 at 883.75 futures contracts at 7:53:35 am MT...23 minutes later at 8:15:40 MT we sold at 887.25 for a gain of $700 or $676 after commissions. If you have an interest in trading futures see Futures Trading in the left hand menu. BMO - ES +1 and NQ +3 are slightly higher in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly higher open. Look for lighter volume and perhaps a narrow trading range on the SPX as we head into a three day weekend...markets are closed Monday. Take a look at SHLD which gapped up last night on earnings... Look at these charts... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY – hammer KOL – black candle lower shadow FAS – white spinning at support URE – white spinning top USD – black spinning top SHLD – gap overnight on earnings STT – piercing line ZION – black candle lower shadow at 50 DMA EBAY – black candle lower shadow at 20 DMA ADBE – white sinning top at 30 DMA WYNN – black spinning top at horizontal support SCHN – black candle lower shadow at 20 DMA STLD – black candle lower shadow at 20 DMA JNPR – white spinning top at horizontal resistance CTV – black spinning top at horizontal support OSG – black candle at 20 DMA EL – black candle at 20 DMA NFLX – broke low of high day JOYG – broke low of high day

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Yellow Alert Turns Red on Thursday...

DJIA - 129.91, -1.54% SP500 - 15.14, -1.68% NASDAQ Comp. - 32.59, -1.89% Russell 2000 - 8.13, -1.66% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 979 799 Declining 2,717 1,939 Oil $61.05 -$0.99 Gold $951.20 +$13.80 SOX 250.40 -6.59 VIX 31.35 +2.32 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Thursday. Strongest Sectors: XLF +0.17%...XLV -0.90%...XLP-0.91% Weakest Sectors: XLF -2.66%...XLU -1.82%...XLY -1.08% Financials, Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities were stronger than the SPX -1.68%. XLF was the only positive sector on Thursday. Financial stocks stronger than XLF: STT, WFC, CME, BK, ALL, TRV, CB, NTRS, JPM, C, AXP, GS, ICE and MS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK -1.75% include: MA, ADP, GOOG, EMC, YHOO, IBM, ADBE, HPQ, AAPL and SYMC. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLY, XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI Down Trending: XLU SPX Key resistance levels: 902 = Weekly R1 930 = horizontal 945 = 200 DMA Key support levels: 891 = 38.2% Fib level 879 = 50% Fib level, 30 DMA 866 = 61.8% Fib level Wednesday’s Yellow Alert turned Red for short term traders as stocks continued to move lower on Thursday, breaking below Wednesday’s low. Wednesday was the high day and that is why we had the Yellow Alert going into today. The SPX fell to its 50% Fib retracement and 30 DMA area, 879, where buyers stepped in about an hour before the close and drove the SPX back to its 38.2% Fib level closing with a full house at 888.33. Gold prices rose in part due to a falling dollar. Gold stocks GDX, GLD, NEM, GLD, AEM, GOLD and GG all moved higher.
The SPX and DJIA broke their 20 DMA and fell to their 30 DMA before rallying during the last hour of trading. The Nasdaq and RUT broke below their 30 DMA before rallying to close at their 30 DMA. Watch for a potential break of the 30 DMA or last week's short term horizontal support.
Check out these charts...
(click image to enlarge)
Index Commentary The DJIA formed a black candle with lower shadow starting at 8,221 which was at its 30 DMA and near last Friday’s low, short term horizontal support …fell below horizontal resistance at 8,405…three month chart target 10,340…volume was slightly below average at 392 million shares…closed just below its 20 DMA and above its 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX formed a black hammer like pattern breaking its 20 DMA and falling to its 30 DMA…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed just below its 20 DMA and above its 30 and 50 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a black candle with a lower shadow…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed below its 20 DMA and 200 DMA and above 30, and 50 DMA. The RUT formed a black hammer like pattern that broke below its 20 and 30 DMA….3 month chart target 606…closed a fraction below its 30 DMA and above its 50 DMA Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, DLB, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, SYNA, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, FAS, AFAM, K, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, STRA, ACN, JOYG, MON, MUR, PSYS, CHL, DECK, MOS, DV, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, CPLA, SPWRA, SYNA, X, ESI, MCD, BDX Moving Above 30 DMA = 0 Moving Below 30 DMA = 7 AAPL, CBST, ESRX, HANS, RBN, USD, WAB Staying Below 30 DMA URE, NTLS, JOSB, AMED, PETS, GES, WRC, SNA, SNHY, WMT, AMZN, EZPW, GXDX, JW.A, JEC, PWR, DLTR, DECK, ORCL, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, APEI, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Pointing to a Lower Open...

BMO - ES -5 and NQ -8 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. Could any of these patterns be short term bearish? (click image to enlarge)

At the Open on Thursday SPY – bearish engulfing KOL – black shooting star FAS – bearish engulfing URE – bearish engulfing USD – black shooting star STT – bearish engulfing ZION – black candle pullback to 20 DMA EBAY – black shooting star ADBE – black shooting star at 200 DMA WYNN – black spinning at 30 DMA SCHN –white shooting star STLD – white shooting star JNPR – black shooting star CTV – black spinning top near resistance OSG – black shooting star EL – black shooting star NFLX – shooting star doji JOYG – shooting star doji

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Shooting Star Wednesday...

DJIA - 52.81, -0.62% SP500 - 4.66, -0.51% NASDAQ Comp. - 6.70, -0.39% Russell 2000 - 3.91, -0.79% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,020 1,276 Declining 1,715 1,464 Oil $62.04 +$1.94 Gold $937.40 +$10.70 SOX 256.99 +0.66 VIX 28.80 +0.23 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Wednesday. Strongest Sectors: XLB +0.45%...XLV +0.39%...XLE +0.34% Weakest Sectors: XLF -2.66%...XLU -1.82%...XLY -1.08% Five of nine Sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Materials, Healthcare, Energy, Consumer Staples and Industrials were stronger than the SPX -0.51%. XLF was again the weakest sector. Financial stocks weaker than XLF: RF, ICE, STT, WFC, BK, ZION, JPM, GS, MET, AXP, MS, PRU, NTRS, PNC, ALL and ETF’s UYG and FAS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK -1.04% include: GLW, TXN, MA, BZ, QCOM, MSFT, ORCL, GOOG, INTC, AMT, ADBE and EBAY. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLY, XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI Down Trending: XLU SPX Key resistance levels: 902 = Weekly R1 930 = horizontal 945 = 200 DMA Key support levels: 891 = 38.2% Fib level 879 = 50% Fib level, 30 DMA 866 = 61.8% Fib level Stocks traded to higher highs during the first hour of trading on Wednesday and then reversed to finish the day lower. The SPX rose to 924 within six points of horizontal resistance before reversing. The SPX hit 930 on May 8. Technicians should watch carefully going into Thursday as it is today’s could be a second top in a potential double top. Steel stocks SCHN, X, ATI, AKS and STLD moved higher on Wednesday but formed shooting stars for the most part.. Solar stocks FSLR, SPWRA, TSL and LDK all had strong gains on Wednesday. We alerted you to both of these groups last night also including charts last night and this morning. Since Wednesday is the high day it is also another Yellow Alert. Watch for the break of the low of the high day especially if you are a short term trader. Because the indices had bearish candle patterns in the area of horizontal resistance (potential double top), intermediate term traders would be wise to consider taking protective action if markets begin to break support.
Look at these charts... (click image to enlarge)
Index Commentary - Yellow Alert The DJIA formed a black shooting star that traded above Monday’s S1 level and below Tuesday’s low…closed above horizontal resistance at 8,405…three month chart target 10,340…volume well above average at 468 million shares…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX formed a black shooting star that traded above Monday’s S1 level and below Tuesday’s low…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a dark cloud cover that was within a half a point of being a bearish engulfing pattern…closed above Tuesday’s low…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA. The RUT formed a black shooting star that traded above Monday’s S1 level and just above Tuesday’s low….3 month chart target 606…closed at its 20 DMA and above its 30 and 50 DMA. At the Open on Wednesday SPY – bearish engulfing KOL – black shooting star FAS – bearish engulfing URE – bearish engulfing USD – black shooting star STT – bearish engulfing ZION – black candle pullback to 20 DMA EBAY – black shooting star ADBE – black shooting star at 200 DMA WYNN – black spinning at 30 DMA SCHN –white shooting star STLD – white shooting star JNPR – black shooting star CTV – black spinning top near resistance OSG – black shooting star EL – black shooting star WHR – black shooting star RIMM – white spinning top Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, DLB, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, SYNA, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, FAS, AFAM, K, RBN, ESRX, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, HANS, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, STRA, ACN, JOYG, MON, MUR, PSYS, CHL, DECK, MOS, DV, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, CPLA, AAPL, SPWRA, SYNA, WAB, X, ESI, USD Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 MCD, CBST, BDX Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 URE, NTLS, JOSB Staying Below 30 DMA AMED, PETS, GES, WRC, SNA, SNHY, WMT, AMZN, EZPW, GXDX, JW.A, JEC, PWR, DLTR, DECK, ORCL, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, APEI, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Flat to Higher Open...

BMO - ES +6 and NQ +5 are up in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly higher open. Since Tuesday was a high day watch the support low SPX 905 and Monday's S1 897 as key short term support levels. Short term traders would again be on a Yellow Alert if short term support is broken. This week so far the SPX has had one thrust day and one pause day... Take a look at these stocks going into Wednesday... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – black shooting star KOL – white shooting star at horizontal resistance FAS – dark cloud cover URE – black spinning top USD – white candle break high of low day STT – white spinning top at horizontal resistance ZION – large black candle pullback to support EBAY – white hanging man above horizontal resistance ADBE – white spinning top WYNN – black candle SCHN – large white candle STLD – large white candle JNPR – white candle continues support bounce CTV – large white candle continues support bounce OSG – black spinning top above Monday’s S1 level EL – black spinning top above Monday’s S1 level WHR – black spinning top RIMM – white spinning top

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Spinning Top Tuesday...

DJIA - 29.23, -0.34% SP500 - 1.58, -0.17% NASDAQ Comp. + 2.18, +0.13% Russell 2000 - 1.53, -0.31% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,310 1,372 Declining 1,417 1,343 Oil $59.65 +$0.62 Gold $926.30 +$5.00 SOX 256.33 +5.05 VIX 28.80 -1.44 The VIX moved down and did NOT confirm the move down in the SPX on Tuesday. Today is the lowest close since September 12, 2009. Strongest Sectors: XLU +1.81%...XLB +1.17%...XLK +0.58% Weakest Sectors: XLF -2.03%...XLI -0.75%...XLV -0.74% Five of nine Sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Utilities, Materials, Technology, Consumer Staples and Energy were stronger than the SPX -0.17%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF: C, STT, ALL, MS, PRU, MET, ICE, SCHW, GS and SPG. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK include: SYMC, HPQ, DELL, EMC, TXN, EBAY, IBM, CSCO, INTC, QCOM, and AAPL. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLY, XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI Down Trending: XLU SPX Key resistance levels: 902 = Weekly R1 930 = horizontal 945 = 200 DMA Key support levels: 879 = weekly S2 869 = 30 DMA 866 = 61.8% Fib level The market trended higher on Tuesday until the last hour when profit takers sent stock prices lower. Only the Nasdaq Composite stayed positive for the day. Sixty seven of the NDX 100 moved higher led by AMZN, DELL, COST, FSLR, AMGN and semiconductor stocks MXIM, LLTC, KLAC and XLNX. Weakness in the indices is being attributed to weaker than expected April Housing Starts were reported a 458K against forecast of 494K. News that the Senate had passed restrictions on the credit card industry appeared to create selling pressure in financial stocks. Weak financial stocks ZION, IVZ, KEY, WFC, AXP, NTRS, CB, BAC and AFL led the market lower. Steel stocks SCHN, NUE, X, ATI, AKS and STLD moved higher. Solar stocks FSLR, SPWRA, TSL, LDK and TAN benefited from expectations for industry growth through government spending on energy programs. Look at how these stocks moved... (click image to enlarge) Technically, the VIX did NOT confirm the move down in the SPX. Generally this is bullish. Also the SOX +2.01% was stronger than the Nasdaq which is also generally bullish. Index Commentary The DJIA formed a black spinning top that traded above Monday’s S1 level…closed above horizontal resistance at 8,405…three month chart target 10,340…volume slightly below average at 277 million shares…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX formed a shooting star that traded above Monday’s S1 level…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a large white candle that confirmed Thursday and Friday’s bullish harami and bounced off its 30 DMA…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA. The RUT formed a black spinning top that traded above Monday’s S1 level….3 month chart target 606…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA At the Open on Tuesday SPY – black shooting star KOL – white shooting star at horizontal resistance FAS – dark cloud cover URE – black spinning top USD – white candle break high of low day STT – white spinning top at horizontal resistance ZION – large black candle pullback to support EBAY – white hanging man above horizontal resistance ADBE – white spinning top WYNN – black candle SCHN – large white candle JNPR – white candle continues support bounce CTV – large white candle continues support bounce BBT – black spinning top OSG – black spinning top above Monday’s S1 level EL – black spinning top above Monday’s S1 level WHR – black spinning top RIMM – white spinning top Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, DLB, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, SYNA, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, FAS, AFAM, K, RBN, ESRX, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, HANS, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, STRA, ACN, JOYG, MON, MUR, PSYS, NTLS, CHL, DECK, MOS, DV, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, CPLA, AAPL, JOSB, SPWRA, SYNA, URE, WAB, X Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 ESI, USD Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 BDX Staying Below 30 DMA AMED, PETS, CBST, GES, WRC, SNA, SNHY, WMT, AMZN, EZPW, GXDX, JW.A, JEC, MCD, PWR, DLTR, DECK, ORCL, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, APEI, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Flat Open...

BMO - ES +1 and NQ -3 are trading flat in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. Looks like we may need to wait for cash markets to open to see if the support bounce will follow through or if Tuesday will be a pause day. Look at these charts for Tuesday morning... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – large white candle support bounce KOL – large white candle confirms inverted hammer FAS – support bounce large white candle URE – large white candle break high of low day USD – white candle break high of low day STT – bullish engulfing ZION – large white candle break high of low day WAB - large white candle break high of low day EBAY – large white candle resistance breakout new high close ADBE – white candle break high of low day WYNN – white candle inside day SCHN – large white candle break high of low day JNPR – white candle break high of low day CTV – white candle support bounce BBT – white candle confirms hammer OSG – white candle breaks high of low day EL – white candle breaks high of low day WHR – white spinning top confirms inverted hammer RIMM – hanging man

Monday, May 18, 2009

Thrust Day Support Bounce on Monday...

DJIA + 235.44, +2.85% SP500 + 26.83, +3.04% NASDAQ Comp. + 9.07, -0.54% Russell 2000 + 18.95, +3.95% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,320 1,072 Declining 2,373 1,644 Oil $59.03 +$2.69 Gold $921.30 -$9.60 SOX 251.28 +9.00 VIX 30.24 -2.88 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. Today is the lowest close since September 12, 2009. Strongest Sectors: XLF +6.59%...XLY +4.93%...XLI +3.67% Weakest Sectors: XLU +0.00%...XLV +0.99%...XLP +2.10% Eight of nine Sectors moved higher on Monday. Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Energy were stronger than the SPX +3.04%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF: ZION, RF, AFL, PRU, BAC, SPG, USB, STT, TROW, WFC, IVZ, MS, AXP, ICE, JPM, PNC and ETF’s UYG and FAS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK include: AMT, EBAY, CSCO, AMAT, AAPL, IBM, QCOM and DELL. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLY, XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI Down Trending: XLU SPX Key resistance levels: 902 = Weekly R1 930 = horizontal 945 = 200 DMA Key support levels: 879 = weekly S2 869 = 30 DMA 866 = 61.8% Fib level On Friday, May 8 Tom Sosnoff in the Weekly Wrap asked, what was my support target for the week of May 11 to 15? Consistent with my blog posting I saw two key support levels, 890 and 875. So I stated a support range of 875 to 890. On Friday May 15 the close on the SPX (cash) was 882.88. The low on the ESM9 S&P futures was 876.75, the close was 883. The mid point between 875 and 890 is 882.50. Hmmmmmmmm, I wonder if there is any validity to this support and resistance stuff? In the Friday post I wrote, “The SPX found support at the 882 level for the third straight day. Watch for range expansion on Monday which has recently been typical on the Monday after options expiration. “Friday was the low day in the recent pull back. If Monday sees a support bounce, watch for a break of the high of the low day.” You may have all noticed the charts I posted on Friday for you to study over the weekend FWLT, RIMM, CTSH and ORLY were flag support bounce opportunities. You may have also noticed all last week during the pull back I left the three month chart targets under the Index Commentary. If you were paying attention on Monday morning you should have been prepared to have a great day in the market. At the Open on Monday SPY – large white candle support bounce KOL – large white candle confirms inverted hammer FAS – support bounce large white candle STT – bullish engulfing ZION – large white candle break high of low day EBAY – large white candle resistance breakout new high close ADBE – white candle break high of low day WYNN – white candle inside day SCHN – large white candle break high of low day SNDA – doji JNPR – white candle break high of low day CTV – white candle support bounce BBT – white candle confirms hammer OSG – white candle breaks high of low day EL – white candle breaks high of low day ICE – white candle new high close WHR – white spinning top confirms inverted hammer VAR – hammer RIMM – hanging man Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, DLB, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, SYNA, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, FAS, AFAM, K, RBN, ESRX, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, HANS, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, STRA, ACN, JOYG, MON, MUR, PSYS, NTLS, CHL, DECK, MOS, DV, BDX, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, CPLA Moving Above 30 DMA = 7 AAPL, JOSB, SPWRA, SYNA, URE, WAB, X Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 AMED, ESI Staying Below 30 DMA PETS, CBST, GES, WRC, SNA, SNHY, WMT, AMZN, EZPW, GXDX, JW.A, JEC, MCD, PWR, DLTR, USD, DECK, ORCL, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, APEI, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

10:51 am ET - We took just our third futures position in our Learn the Discipline Model Portfolio (see Learn the Discipline in the left had column for complete details) this morning...we bought 10 NQM9 contracts at 1,360.75 at 8:06:54 am MT and sold for 1368.75 at 8:48:57. This was a gain of 8 points times 10 contracts or a net gain after commissions to the Model Portfolio of $1,530.00. If this type of trading is of interest to you see Futures Trading in the left hand menu. 9:37 am ET - Financial stocks XLF and Consumer Discretionary XLY are the early sector leaders this morning... 9:32 am ET - Financial stocks FAS, ZION, BBT, STT are strong at the open...ORLY, WYNN and AT the Open stocks are following through at the open... BMO - ES +7 and NQ +9 futures are higher in pre-market trading and pointing to a higher open. Whether the market follows through or pulls back look for the SPX range to expand from 18 on Friday...this has been happening in recent months on the Monday following expiration Friday...this represents potential opportunity regardless of direction. Notice on our At the Open List almost every stock had a small candle at support on Friday, all set up for potential support bounces. It would be very easy to add another several dozen stocks to this list this morning...so if the market does follow through to the upside the list should be packed with potential opportunity... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY –black spinning top KOL – inverted hammer FAS – black spinning top STT – black spinning top ZION – black candle EBAY – doji ADBE – black spinning top WYNN - black spinning top SCHN – black spinning top SNDA black spinning top JNPR – white spinning CTV – black spinning top BBT – hammer breaks high of low day OSG – black spinning top EL – doji ICE – black spinning top WHR – inverted hammer VAR – bullish engulfing RIMM – inverted hammer FWLT - bullish engulfing CTSH - large white candle ORLY - large white candle outside day

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Learn the Discipline

Learn the Discipline Model Portfolio Summary - Week 15 summary will posted here on Monday... (click image to enlarge)

Friday, May 15, 2009

Markets Drift Lower on Options Expiration Friday...

DJIA - 62.68, -0.75% SP500 - 10.19, -1.14% NASDAQ Comp. - 9.07, -0.54% Russell 2000 - 4.87, -1.01%

Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,320 1,072 Declining 2,373 1,644 Oil $56.34 -$2.28 Gold $930.90 +$2.90 SOX 242.28 -2.10 VIX 33.12 +1.75 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. Strongest Sectors: XLB +0.35%...XLI +0.05%...XLK +0.00% Weakest Sectors: XLU -2.37%...XLE -2.14%...XLF -2.04% Six of nine Sectors moved lower on Friday. Only Utilities, Energy and Financials were weaker than the SPX -1.14%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF: GS, MMC, AOC, TRV, USB, TROW, SCHW, MS, JPM, STT, C and AXP. Stocks weaker than XLF include: ZION, SPG, BAC, AFL, IVZ, PRU, ICE, ALL, MET, WFC, CB and PNC. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK include: YHOO, MSFT, GOOG, TXN, EMC, QCOM, DELL, EBAY, IBM and HPQ. . Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLY, XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI Down Trending: XLU

SPX Key resistance levels: 902 = Weekly R1 930 = horizontal 945 = 200 DMA Key support levels: 879 = weekly S2 869 = 30 DMA 866 = 61.8% Fib level

The SPX found support at the 882 level for the third straight day. Watch for range expansion on Monday which has recently been typical on the Monday after options expiration. The indices did not confirm the bullish harami patterns that formed on Thursday. Friday was the low day in the recent pull back. If Monday sees a support bounce watch for a break of the high of the low day. Index Commentary The DJIA formed a black spinning top that did not confirm Thursday’s bullish harami…stayed below horizontal resistance at 8,405…three month chart target 10,340…volume slightly below average at 308 million shares…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX black spinning top did not confirm Thursday’s bullish harami…small bounce off 20 DMA…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The Nasdaq for the second straight day formed a bullish harami and bounced off its 30 DMA…it is below its 20 and 200 DMA…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 30 and 50 DMA. The RUT formed an inside day that did not confirm Thursday’s bullish harami that closed below its 20 DMA and is right at its 30 DMA…3 month chart target 606…closed above its 50 DMA Look at these charts... (click image to enlarge)

Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, DLB, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, SYNA, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, FAS, AFAM, K, RBN, ESRX, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, HANS, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, STRA, ACN, AMED, JOYG, MON, MUR, PSYS, NTLS, CHL, DECK, MOS, DV, BDX, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, ESI Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 CPLA Moving Below 30 DMA = 4 PETS, SYNA, WAB, X Staying Below 30 DMA AAPL, CBST, GES, WRC, SNA, SNHY, SPWRA, WMT, URE, AMZN, EZPW, GXDX, JOSB, JW.A, JEC, MCD, PWR, DLTR, USD, DECK, ORCL, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, APEI, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

May Options Expiration...

1:30 pm ET - The SPX and markets have been behaving in the recently typical expiration day fashion...trading range...after an early roller coaster and a brief breakout to the upside the SPX fell right back into its trading range and fell to the low end of that range...the SPX range so far today is 14.52 points a fairly tight range...the VIX which was negative earlier is now a positive +1.47 which of course is bearish for the day and confirming the current SPX at -10. Key tech stocks GOOG, BIDU, AAPL, RIMM and QCOM are still positve for the day but have pulled back from their morning highs...AMZN which was positive is now down for the day... 11:05 am ET - the SPX breakout does not hold and prices pull back into its early morning trading range... 10:40 am ET - During the first hour of trading we saw the SPX open essentially flat move up 5 points...fall 5 points...move up 5 points...fall 5 points and now over the past 25 minutes it has risen about 7 points and breaking the early morning high of 895.78. So far we are seeing the recently typical expiration day back and forth action...if the 895 breakout holds it would measure a 7 point rise to the 902 area...The VIX is -0.65 at this time which is bullish...ranging is certainly the theme so far this morning... BMO - ES -1 and NQ -2 are lower in pre-market tradig pointing to a flat open. Remember its options expiration...recent expiration Friday's have been more ranging in nature as opposed to strong trending days... Look at these charts and their potential support bounces... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY –bullish harami KOL – white spinning top FAS – piercing line STT – bullish engulfing ZION – bullish harami in bull flag EBAY – large white candle stays above gap support at 200 DMA ADBE – large white candle bullish harami WYNN - hammer SCHN – white spinning top SNDA – hammer/bullish harami JNPR – white candle in bull flag above gap support CTV – large white candle closes at high of low day BBT – hammer breaks high of low day OSG – bullish harami in bull flag EL – doji ICE – white spinning top WHR – bullish harami

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Bullish Harami Thursday...

DJIA + 46.43, +0.56% SP500 + 9.15, +1.04% NASDAQ Comp. + 25.02, +1.50% Russell 2000 + 8.89, +1.88% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,653 1,857 Declining 1,048 866 Oil $58.62 +$0.60 Gold $928.00 +$2.50 SOX 244.38 +7.58 VIX 31.37 +2.28 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday. This is the lowest close since September 16, 2008. Strongest Sectors: XLF +3.34%...XLK +1.08%...XLB +0.86% Weakest Sectors: XLU -0.08%...XLV +0.12%...XLY +0.13% Eight of nine Sectors moved higher on Thursday. Financials and Technology rose more than the SPX +1.05%. Financial stocks again was the strongest sector rising +3.34%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF: AFL, STT, PRU, WFC, RF, MET, MS NTRS, KEY, JPM ICE, ALL, C, SPG, CME, IVZ, GS and ETF’s UYG and FAS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK, +1.08% include: GLW, EBAY, ADBE, AMT, AAPL, TXN, INTC, ORCL, HPQ, YHOO, MSFT, QCOM and MA. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLY, XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI Down Trending: XLU SPX Key resistance levels: 944 = horizontal 954 = 200 DMA 957 = short term chart target Key support levels: 904 = weekly S1 891 = 38.2% Fib level 875 = horizontal The SPX found support at the 882 level and rose 9 points on Thursday after falling 48 points through Wednesday from Friday’s high. High priced financials CME, GS and ICE led financial stocks higher. Friday is May options expiration which can sometimes be more volatile as option positions get resolved and closed. Look for a break of the high of the low day as many stocks are set up for a support bounce follow through. Watch key support levels on Friday if the support bounce does not follow through to the up side. Index Commentary The DJIA…bullish harami…stayed below horizontal resistance at 8,405…three month chart target 10,340…volume slightly below average at 323 million shares…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX formed a bullish harami…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a bullish harami bounced off its 30 DMA and horizontal support level of 1,665…it is below its 20 and 200 DMA…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 30 and 50 DMA. The RUT formed a bullish harami that closed below its 20 DMA…3 month chart target 606…closed above its 30 and 50 DMA At the Open on Friday SPY –bullish harami KOL – white spinning top FAS – piercing line STT – bullish engulfing ZION – bullish harami in bull flag EBAY – large white candle stays above gap support at 200 DMA ADBE – large white candle bullish harami WYNN - hammer SCHN – white spinning top SNDA – hammer/bullish harami JNPR – white candle in bull flag above gap support CTV – large white candle closes at high of low day BBT – hammer breaks high of low day OSG – bullish harami in bull flag EL – doji ICE – white spinning top WHR – bullish harami Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, DLB, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, SYNA, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, WAB, FAS, AFAM, K, RBN, ESRX, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, HANS, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, STRA, ACN, AMED, JOYG, MON, MUR, PSYS, NTLS, CHL, DECK, MOS, DV, PETS, BDX Moving Above 30 DMA = 6 AXYS, BIIB, BYI, ESI, SYNA, X Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA AAPL, CBST, CPLA, GES, WRC, SNA, SNHY, SPWRA, WMT, URE, AMZN, EZPW, GXDX, JOSB, JW.A, JEC, MCD, PWR, DLTR, USD, DECK, ORCL, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, APEI, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Neutral