Friday, August 31, 2012

SPY Gains on Rising Volume...AAPL Forms Hammer...

Markets are closed Monday for Labor Day and open again on Tuesday.


Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLE, XLB and XLK were the strongest sectors.

Breadth strengthened by more than double as advancers led decliners 2.35 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.68 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers     2,046       1,547
Decliners          870          919


Friday Highlights:
SPY gained 67 centsclosing at 141.16…volume was 151.9 million shares, its highest level of the week and more than 50% above its 20 day average volume…

VIX down -.36 at 17.47…confirms gain in SPY
Euro up 67 pips at 1.2572
TNX - .58 at 15.62non-confirmation of falling dollar
TLT up 1.78 at 127.72…
XLF up 11 cents at 15.16…
Gold +35.50 at 1692.62…confirms falling dollar
Oil +1.94 at 96.56…confirms falling dollar

AAPL up 1.37 at 665.24volume 12.1 million shares …formed a bullish hammer
FB down 1.03 at 18.05… volume 58.7 million shares…made a new low


The Market Forecast green line is in upper zone. 

YTD At a Glance

                        August          YTD
Sector ETF
XLY                 +4.62%          +17.52%
XLK                +4.20%          +20.70%
XLF                 +3.41%          +17.52%
XLE                +2.70%            +4.38%
XLB                +2.32%            +7.41%
XLI                  +1.54%            +8.73%
XLV                +1.17%          +13.14%
XLP                -0.47%           +10.47%
XLU                -4.14%             +2.92%

Industry ETF
XHB                +12.12%        +38.93%
XSD                  +4.41%          +2.67%
XRT                  +3.57%        +16.99%
XOP                  +2.95%          +0.51%
XME                 +2.86%        -15.92%
XPH                  +1.71%        +15.02%
XES                  +0.70%          -3.85%
XBI                    -1.50%         +33.33%

SPY                +2.51%          +13.55%

AAPL              +9.39%          +64.96%
STX                 +7.67%          +98.82%
EBAY              +7.16%          +56.51%
EXPE              -9.66%           +78.27%


Technical Commentary: The SPY moved up 67 cents on 151.9 million shares bouncing up at horizontal support rising near diagonal resistance.  With Friday’s bounce protecting to the downside became unnecessary.

The current diagonal channel on the SPY is a trend continuation pattern.  Chart Signals sees  that the current uptrend is likely to continue.   Friday’s strength in bellwethers INTC, MSFT and ORCL along with strength in the Euro support this view.

(click image to enlarge)

The INDU and SOX also bounced today as did some individual stocks like QCOM and IBM and SHLD.

The Euro rose to resistance in its sideways consolidation and the RUT formed a hammer above short-term support.  XLF bounced off support and confirmed its bullish hammer.

A strengthening Euro led to a bounce in gold as we had expected last week.  The move was delayed but did occur on Friday.

Chart Targets
SPY = 143.10 S&R Measuring
ES = 1,425.75 S&R Measuring

Short-term support at
140.22, 139.80 = SPY
1,403, 1,395, 1,387 = ES
2,750, 2,743, 2,700 = NQ


SETUPS…
At Support: DECK, HLF, MOS, RVBD, SOHU, SWI, ZION, BRCM, CHL, FFIV

Flag:  CRUS, ICE, INFA, JNPR, LVS, NKE, RCL, STI, AAPL, KORS, CROX, F

Channel at Support:  QCOM, NFLX, SHLD, GRMN, IBM, SLB, WDC, TSL

Hammer Candle: AAPL, BRCM, FFIV, FLEX, GMCR, QCOM, SNDK, VRSN, XLNX, A, ATI, BAC, CREE, CROX, DE, JDSU, RVBD, LVS, SWI, VECO, VMW


Bounce:  CDE, FCX, SWKS, AKS, UCO, GLW, EA, ESI, GLD, NTES, TLT, ESRX, CRM, DE, DHR, FAS, MOS, SDRL, SMH, V, ADSK, AMGN, APOL, CELG, EBAY, INTC, MSFT, ORCL


75 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GOLD, EA, ALTR, INTC, LRCX, ADSK, EBAY, FLEX, AMAT, LLTC

Lagging NDX stocks included: PNRA, NFLX, DELL, COST, FOSL, STX, ADBE, DTV, BIDU, CERN

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: CDE, AKS, FCX, MCP, SWKS, ESI, UCO, GLW, NTES

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: FB, ZAGG, TBT

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 36
WDC, UCO, TPX, GS, RVBD, SWI, CROX, CRUS, DHR, SWKS, CREE, C, FAS, FCX, JDSU, NKE, RCL, STI, TIF, BAC, CDE, CRM, SINA, SOHU, F, DECK, ZION, ANF, INFA, ICE, LVS, LNKD, HUM, URE, COH, GLW

Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
CSTR, MOS, SMH, TLT, V

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
TBT

Staying Below 30 DMA
CIEN, JNPR, SLB, VECO, AKS, IBM, SWK, ATI, TSL, TSLA, X, ANR, GES, VMW, DE, HLF, A, CHL, NTES, GRPN, CLF, DLR, ZAGG, FAZ, CMG, ESI, UAL, FB, LDK, MCP

Twelve Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Stock Futures Set For Rise In Pre-Market...


BMO – ES + 12.50 and NQ + 28.00 is up in pre- market…SPY is up + 1.12 in pre-market…

XLF is up .09 cents…
Euro is up 10 pips….
TLT is down .18 cents…


Short-term support at
140.49, 139.80 = SPY

Next Chart Targets: 
SPY = 143.10 S&R Measuring


The trend is still up but prices are consolidating in a bull flag pattern…follow your rules for entry, exit, adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...


Quoting Up: PCLN, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOLD, FFIV, WYNN, PNRA, NFLX, FSLR, ROST, DLR, FAS, IBM, VMW, GS, V, SL, SINA, LNKD

Quoting Down:  SIRI, FB, FAZ

Thursday, August 30, 2012

SPY Pulls Back to Support...Bounce or Break?


All nine sectors moved lower on Thursday…Though weak XLF, XLV and XLP were the strongest sectors…

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 2.55 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.98 to 1 on the Nasdaq…

Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers       823         618
Decliners       2,103       1,843


Thursday Highlights:
SPY moved down 1.02closing at 140.49…volume was 96.5 million shares…

VIX up .77 at 17.83
Euro down 24 pips at 1.2505
TNX - .34 at 16.20
TLT up .65 cents at 125.94…
XLF down 8 cents at 15.05…

Dow down -107
Nasdaq down - 32


AAPL down 9.60 at 663.87volume 10.8 million shares
FB down .01 cents at 19.09… volume 30.6 million shares…

CIEN -3.26, -19.50% gapped down following earnings…

The Market Forecast green line is in upper zone.

Technical Commentary: The SPY moved down $1.02 on 96.5 million shares to horizontal support and appears to be forming a potential M top pattern with a $3 price target if support is broken.  Friday is the last trading day before the three-day Labor Day weekend.  While the old adage is “never short a dull market,” protect and hedge your portfolio according to your rules if price breaks support on any charts you are trading.      

The INDU and SOX broke short term support today as did some individual stocks like QCOM, IBM and SHLD.

The Euro pulled back slightly in its sideways consolidation and the RUT is above short-term support.  XLF rallied off support and formed a bullish hammer.

Chart Targets
SPY = 143.10 S&R Measuring
ES = 1,425.75 S&R Measuring

Short-term support at
140.22, 139.80 = SPY
1,403, 1,387 = ES
2,750, 2,743, 2,700 = NQ


SETUPS…
Gap Down:  CIEN, JDSU, STX

At Support: DECK, DHR, FAS, HLF, MOS, RVBD, SOHU, SWI, ZION, BRCM, CHL, FFIV

Flag:  CRUS, ICE, INFA, JNPR, LVS, NKE, RCL, STI, UCO, SDRL, CRM, AAPL, KORS, EBAY, GLD,

Break of Support:  QCOM, NFLX, SHLD, IBM, SLB, WDC, TSL


11 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: COST, EA, SBUX, WCRX, BBBY, CERN, VMED PCLN

Lagging NDX stocks included: FSLR, SHLD, NFLX, FFIV, STX, CHKP, GMCR, RIMM, MRVL, EXPE, KLAC, FOSL, SNDK, NTAP, LRCX, FLEX, NUAN

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: ZAGG

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: CIEN, MCP, TSL, JDSU, LDK, TPX, JNPR, INFA, VECO, ANR, WDC, CLF, ATI, GRPN

Stocks to Watch on Friday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 37
 WDC, UCO, TPX, GS, RVBD, SWI, CROX, DHR, SWKS, CRUS, CREE, C, FAS, FCX, JDSU, NKE, RCL, STI, TBT, TIF, BAC, CDE, CRM, SINA, SOHU, F, DECK, ZION, ANF, INFA, ICE, LVS, LNKD, HUM, URE, COH, GLW

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
CIEN, JNPR, SLB, SMH, V, VECO


Staying Below 30 DMA
AKS, IBM, SWK, ATI, TSL, TSLA, X, ANR, GES, MOS, VMW, DE, HLF, A, CHL, NTES, GRPN, ANR, CLF, DLR, TLT, ZAGG, FAZ, CMG, ESI, UAL, FB, CSTR, LDK, MCP

Twelve Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Stock Futures Slightly Down In Pre-Market...


BMO – ES – 4.50 and NQ - 8.50 is down slightly in pre- market…SPY down - .61 cents in pre-market…

XLF is down 11 cents…
Euro is up 26 pips….
TLT is up 87 cents…


Short-term support at
140.92, 139.80 = SPY

Next Chart Targets: 
SPY = 143.10 S&R Measuring


The trend is still up but prices are consolidating in a bull flag pattern…follow your rules for entry, exit, adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...


Quoting Up: COST, XBUX, VOD, FAZ, UCO, FB, MCP

Quoting Down:  PCLN, GOOG, SHLD, AAPL, AMZN, FFIV, KLAC, FSLR, ISRG, ORLY STX, CIEN VMW, FAS CRM