Tuesday, August 31, 2010

SPX, DJIA and Nasdaq Form Triple Bottom...RUT Makes Higher Low...

DJIA           10,014.72  +4.99   +0.06%
SP500          1,049.33   +0.41   +0.04%
COMPQ        2,114.03   -5.94   -0.28%
Russell 2000    602.06  +0.34   +0.06%

Exchange     NYSE     NASD
Advancing    1,669      1,279
Declining      1,340      1,329

Oil                $72.49    -1.14
Gold        $1,251.90 +15.70
SOX             307.49    -6.09
VIX                26.05    -1.16

Index     Direction Confirmation
VIX        Down       Yes – SPX
SOX       Down       Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Tuesday included WLT, TSL, CLF, VOD, MOS, UAUA, FCX, BUCY, AIV, SINA, GMCR, NFLX, DLR, URE, FAS, HSY, X, CMG, PNC, ICE, BAC, AKS, CAT, NTRI, ZION, AMX, HLF, TIE, UNP, SPG, CRM, PCLN, STI, HAS, DE, MCD, POT, RMVS, SWK, GME


The SPX, DJIA and COMPQ formed a triple bottom as the narrow trading range of the past five days continued for a sixth day.  The SPX, INDU and RUT closed slightly higher, while the COMPQ closed slightly lower. 

INDU - white spinning top
SPX - white spinning top
COMPQ - white spinning top
RUT - white spinning top

Support Bounce Setups for Wednesday - HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, CLF, FFIV, LVS, VMW, CMG, NTES, AKAM, NTAP, BIDU, MRVL, INTU, CAM, MOS, GMCR, NFLX, CRM, QCOM, CSTR, LXK

Guidance:
SPX
Resistance: 1,056, 1,071, 1,086
Support: 1,041, 1030, 1010


Look to enter bullish trades when a new bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day occurs.


Enter bearish setups with a new bounce down from resistance; bounce down from the 30 DMA or break of support.


The VIX fell -1.16 to 26.05 staying above the benchmark 25 level.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.


Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.


AAPL +0.60 – white spinning top confirms inverted hammer
QCOM +0.01 – spinning top does not confirm inverted hammer
GOOG -2.67 – doji
BIDU +1.19 – piercing line
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NWSA, BIDU, JOYG, MICC, FSLR, CELG, INTU, LBTYA, IACI, NIHD, DISH, TEVA, AMZN, SIAL and COST.


Stocks weaker than the NDX: BRCM, RIMM, STX, MRVL, NVDA, ESRX, DELL, FLEX, CERN, SBUX, MCHP, GILD, CSCO, APOL and INTC.


Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, FAZ, VMW, CMG, NTES, CRM, TSL, CLF
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


Staying Below 30 DMA
BYI, CHL, HSY, WMT, GES, GMCR,CSTR, FDX, HAS, LXK, NDAQ, UPS, WLT, A, BUCY, CAT, DE, GR, IPI, PCP, RMBS, UNP, X, AKS, AMX, CAM, FLS, GME, GS, MA, NYX, SNDK, SWK, URE, BA, CRUS, ACN, AIV, ATI, CREE, DECK, DHR, DOW, FAS, STI, TIE, UAUA, UCO, USO, V, DLR, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, JEC, NTRI, ESI, BAC, MHS, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Flat Open...

11:00 am ET - last night in my AT webcast I put on a subjectively based bearish virtual trade on the SPY...if you were there you may remember that I said to do this trade required ignoring the intermediate sideways trend that was at support, the 5 day trend that was neutral and the 1,040 support level that has been a pivotal area of resistance and support since October 2008...I placed a virtual trade on the SPY to buy the Sep 106 put if the SPY traded below 104.90...I placed the initial stop at 107.41...I said that if the SPY found support in the 104 to 104.50 area and began to reverse that I would tighten the stop since the subjectively based bearishness was not becoming reality....the original buy order was filled at 9:31:00 for 2.57 per contract...at 9:48:47 I moved the stop from 107.41 to 105.55 which was Monday's 105.30 close plus 25 cents...that stop was filled at 10:03:44 for 2.18...I stated last night that I did not like this trade because it was not an objective view of the market and was based on the assumption that a trader was subjectively convinced that the market was going to break support and go lower, but that I wanted to demonstrate how to do a counter trend trade in an intelligent manner...this morning the SPX appears to have made a triple bottom...I also pointed out last night that if Tuesday followed the pattern of the last 5 trading days that Tuesday would be an up day...while it is too early to know how the day will finish right now the SPX is up 2 points after falling to a low of 1,040.88...

Survey: Is intraday commentary helpful in your trading?  Let me know at chartsignals@yahoo.com


ES -0.50 and NQ -4.75 are trading down slightly before the open pointing to a flat to slightly lower open...TLT is up 77 cents and the EURO is up 63 pips...

Trading Down - WLT, CHL, AGU, UNP, MA, POT, NFLX, FDX, CRM, FCX, USD, TSL, CAT, PCLN, CLF, CAT, FFIV, GOOG, ROST, CERN, AMZN, AAPL, BIDU, VRTX, AKAM, ERTS, JOYG

Trading Up - PCP, VOD, HSIC, MICC, TEVA

Monday, August 30, 2010

SPX Pulls Back Again...Still Above 1,040 Support...

DJIA           10,150.65  -140.73   -1.39%
SP500          1,048.92    -15.76   -1.47%
COMPQ        2,119.97   -33.66   -1.56%
Russell 2000   601.72    -15.04   -2.44%

Exchange   NYSE   NASD
Advancing     677      542
Declining    2,327   2,100

Oil          $73.63   -1.10
Gold   $1,236.20   -3.10
SOX        313.58   -8.18
VIX           24.45  +2.76

Index     Direction   Confirmation
VIX        Up               Yes – SPX
SOX       Down          Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Monday included FAZ, UNG, UAUA, ESI, FFIV, SNDK, HLF, AGU, AKS

After a strong up day on Friday the ES futures opened Sunday evening and moved higher reaching 1,072 late Sunday night. The ES sold off to 1,060 by the 9:30 ET open and then rallied three points to 1,063.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

The cash SPX opened at 1,062.90 down just over two points from Friday’s close. From there the SPX trended down all day long in a series of six intraday bear flags closing at 1,048 at the 61.8% Fib retracement from Friday’s low.    
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Guidance:
SPX
Resistance: 1,056, 1,071, 1,086
Support: 1,041, 1030, 101

1,041 has been a strong support area for a year and was resistance in October 2008.  Buyers have been at this level all but one time this year and this level still favors a potential bounce.  Stay prepared to trade in both directions. 


Look to enter bullish trades when a new bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day occurs.


Enter bearish setups with a new bounce down from resistance, bounce down from the 30 DMA or break of support

The VIX rose +2.76 to 27.21 moving above the benchmark 25 level and increasing the potential for a break of support.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules


AAPL   +0.88 – inverted hammer confirms Friday’s dragonfly doji, harami
QCOM -0.35 – inverted hammer
GOOG -6.14 – black candle did not confirm Friday’s hammer like
BIDU   -2.13 – black candle

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: GENZ, DELL, APOL, AAPL, SRCL, WCRX, HSIC, PDCO and SBUX.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: NVDA, LRCX, WYNN, ALTR, BRCM, ADSK, EXPE, BBBY, PCAR, PCLN, BIDU, MXIM, XRAY, XLNX and KLAC.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, FAZ, VMW, CMG, NTES, CRM, TSL, CLF
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 8
BYI, CHL, FCX, HSY, SINA, SPG, VOD, WMT
Staying Below 30 DMA
GES, GMCR,CSTR, FDX, HAS, LXK, NDAQ, UPS, WLT, A, BUCY, CAT, DE, GR, IPI, PCP, RMBS, UNP, X, AKS, AMX, CAM, FLS, GME, GS, MA, NYX, SNDK, SWK, URE, BA, CRUS, ACN, AIV, ATI, CREE, DECK, DHR, DOW, FAS, STI, TIE, UAUA, UCO, USO, V, DLR, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, JEC, NTRI, ESI, BAC, MHS, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Slightly Lower Open...

ES -2.00 and NQ -4.00 in pre-market trading point to a slightly lower open...TLT is up 78 cents and the EURO is down 55 pips.  There are more stocks down than up in light volume before the open.

Trading Down - POT, CRM, NFLX, GS, CHL, MCD, GR, MOS, USO,WLT, DE, TSL, VMW, ACN, X, BUCY, AMZN, AAPL, QCOM, TEVA, ERTS, AKAM

Trading Up - SNDK, SPG, CREE, UAUA, FDX, MHS, VECO, GENZ, GOOG, CTSH, STLD, INTU, WCRX, RIMM, STX

Look for the support bounce and continuation moves for entry on Monday and any breakout setups as they occur.  Use the early pull back as a potential second entry on Friday's support bounce entry. 

As always follow your rules.

Support Bounce Entry Signal on Friday - HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, CLF, FFIV, LVS, VMW, CMG, NTES, AKAM, NTAP, BIDU, MRVL, INTU, CAM, MOS


Support Bounce Setups for Monday - GMCR, NFLX, CRM, QCOM, CSTR, LXK

Friday, August 27, 2010

SPX Forms Double Bottom Breakout...SPX Target 1,082...

DJIA              10,150.65   +164.84   +1.65%
SP500             1,064.59     +17.37   +1.66%
COMPQ           2,153.63    +34.94    +1.65%
Russell 2000       616.76    +17.00    +2.83%

Exchange       NYSE      NASD
Advancing      2,620       2,185
Declining          397          471

Oil              $75.57   +2.21
Gold      $1,239.50   +1.80
SOX           321.76   +6.53
VIX              24.45    -2.92

Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX         Down           Yes – SPX
SOX        Up               Yes – COMPQ

The SPX returned to the 1,040 support area Friday morning during the first 30 minutes of trading where buyers stepped in and took over just like they did on Wednesday. A rally ensued to the 1,061 resistance area from Thursday morning where a bull flag was formed pulling back to the 1,055 area. Buyers took control at 1,055 and broke through the 1,061 resistance with an SPX close at 1,064. You can view this in the five day chart below.

The good news for those who took long positions on the support bounce on Friday is the 1,061 breakout gives a short term SPX price target of 1,082.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

All four of the broad indexes formed bullish candle patterns on the daily chart. The SPX confirmed Wednesday’s hammer. A confirmation of a hammer at support is a bullish support bounce entry signal. The RUT was the strongest of the four indexes on both Thursday and Friday. The RUT did not pull back as far on Thursday and moved higher on Friday relative to Wednesday and Thursday’s high. The chart below shows both the daily and weekly on the SPX and RUT.  The RUT had the smallest percentage loss on Thursday and largest gain on Friday.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

INDU = bullish engulfing
SPX = white candle confirms Wednesday’s hammer
COMPQ = hammer following Wednesday’s bullish engulfing
RUT = large white candle following Wednesday’s bullish engulfing

This week the media was at least partially obsessed with something called the Hindenburg Omen. This was just classic look for something that projects the negativity of the recent weeks into future. This omen is just another example of how some people can’t resist the drive to see the future. The latest doom and gloom is not-with-standing a bullish MACD histogram divergence on the SPX chart. This is the same divergence that appeared at the low in July 2009, February and May 2010.

Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Stop trying to predict the future and focus on Trend, Support and Resistance and Momentum.

Leading stocks on Friday included RVBD, VECO, UCO, FCX, FAS, TSL, BUCY, LVS, CLF, CREE, TIE, CAM, AKS, MOS, WLT, PCLN, DOW, UAUA, SINA, X, IPI, VOD, NETL, AMD, ATI, HLF, USD, CRUS, AGU, URE, ZION, ATW, FLS, CMG, CAT, BYI, BA, DE, USO, SWN, PNC, SWK, NTES, RMBS, NYX, DHR, UNP, AMX, PCP, FDX, CHL, POT

Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

All four, CRM, NTES, INTU and AKAM, of the breakout stocks we listed last Friday closed above their breakout resistancethis week.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Twenty out of twenty six stocks we listed as Support Bounce Setups Thursday evening bounced and gave an entry signal on Friday.

Support Bounce Entry Signal on Friday - HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, CLF, FFIV, LVS, VMW, CMG, NTES, AKAM, NTAP, BIDU, MRVL, INTU, CAM, MOS
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Support Bounce Setups for Monday - GMCR, NFLX, CRM, QCOM, CSTR, LXK

Guidance:
SPX
Resistance: 1,071, 1,086, 1,100
Support: 1,056, 1,041, 1030

Look to enter bullish trades when a new bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day occurs.

Adjust stops on bearish trades for a potential exit if they bounce above the high of the low day. Enter bearish setups with a new bounce down from resistance or break of support.

The VIX fell -2.92 to 24.45 moving below the benchmark 25 level and confirming Friday’s support bounce.

AAPL   +1.34 – dragonfly doji, bullish harami
QCOM  +0.36 – hammer
GOOG  +7.85 – hammer like
BIDU    +2.77 – white candle
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: JOYG, STX, NTAP, PCLN, LINTA, STLD, BRCM, BIDU, ADSK, MRVL, NVDA, VRTX, PCAR, FLIR and WYNN.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: RIMM, URBN, SHLD, INFY, LOGI, ATVI, ESRX, COST, PDCO and CERN.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, FAZ, VMW, CMG, NTES, CRM, WMT, TSL
Moving Above 30 DMA = 8
BYI, CHL, CLF, FCX, HSY, SINA, SPG, VOD
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA
GES, GMCR,CSTR, FDX, HAS, LXK, NDAQ, UPS, WLT, A, BUCY, CAT, DE, GR, IPI, PCP, RMBS, UNP, X, AKS, AMX, CAM, FLS, GME, GS, MA, NYX, SNDK, SWK, URE, BA, CRUS, ACN, AIV, ATI, CREE, DECK, DHR, DOW, FAS, STI, TIE, UAUA, UCO, USO, V, DLR, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, JEC, NTRI, ESI, BAC, MHS, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

ES and NQ futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open...TLT is 65 cents lower and the EURO is flat...

Trading Up - PCLN, DECK, BUCY, CREE, VMW, NFLX, FCX, FFIV, HLF, POT, CLF, SKX, CRM, FDX, MOS, VOD, CAT, SNDK, X, USD, V, GS, LVS, TSL, MCD, URE, DE, SPG, AGU, GMCR, UNP, FAS, GS, UAUA, CRUS, IPI, GOOG, PCLN, AAPL, ISRG, JOYG, AMZN, FSLR, BRCM, WYNN, AKAM, BIDU, GENZ

Trading Down - MA, SWK, BA, FAZ

Support Bounce Setups for Friday - GMCR, HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, CLF, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, NTES, CRM, AKAM, NTAP, BIDU, QCOM, MRVL, INTU, CSTR, LXK, CAM, POT, AGU, MOS

Thursday, August 26, 2010

SPX Support Bounce Fades...Holds Above the 1,040 Support

DJIA                9,985.81  -74.25      -0.74%
SPX                1,047.22     -8.11     -0.77%
COMPQ          2,118.69   -22.85     -1.07%
Russell 2000      599.76     -5.11     -0.84%

Exchange     NYSE     NASD
Advancing    1,069         876
Declining      1,937      1,773

Oil             $73.36   +0.84
Gold     $1,234.20     -4.90
SOX          315.23     -6.27
VIX             27.37    +0.67

Index     Direction   Confirmation
VIX        Up              Yes – SPX
SOX       Down         Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Thursday included DOW, FAZ, TSL, ESI, UCO, GR, UAUA, NFLX, BA, FFIV, NTRI, USO, FCX, CMG, VMW, AGU, CHL, UNP, HSY, UPS, PCP, HANS, ICE, FDX

The SPX's support bounce that started on Wednesday ran into resistance at 1,061 after the first hour of trading and the index trended down for the rest of the day reaching a low of 1.045.40 before a small rally during the last hour of trading.

INDU = black candle above support

SPX = black candle above support
COMPQ = black candle above support
RUT = black candle above S1

Support Bounce Setups for Friday - GMCR, HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, CLF, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, NTES, CRM, AKAM, NTAP, BIDU, QCOM, MRVL, INTU, CSTR, LXK, CAM, MOS

Guidance:
SPX
Resistance: 1,056, 1,071, 1,086
Support: 1,041, 1030, 1,010

Look to enter bullish trades when a new bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day occurs.

Adjust stops on bearish trades for a potential exit if they bounce above the high of the low day. Enter bearish setups with a new bounce down from resistance or break of support

The VIX rose +0.67 to 27.37 holding above the benchmark 25 level.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL     -2.61 – black candle higher high, higher low
QCOM   -0.18 – spinning top
GOOG   -3.64 – black candle, inside day
BIDU     -1.70 – black candle higher high, higher low
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: FSLR, NTAP, NIHD, VRSN, CTXS, IACI, LINTA, DTV, EXPE, HANS, PAYX, RYAAY and FLIR.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: PDCO, STX, FLEX, HSIC, MRVL, VRTX, STLD, PCLN, ISRG, WYNN, ALTR, BIIB, SHLD, URBN and CSCO.

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, FAZ, VMW, CMG, NTES, CRM, WMT, TSL
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
CLF, GES, GMCR, SPG
Staying Below 30 DMA
BYI, CHL, CSTR, FCX, FDX, HAS, HSY, LXK, NDAQ, SINA, UPS, VOD, WLT, A, BUCY, CAT, DE, GR, IPI, PCP, RMBS, UNP, X, AKS, AMX, CAM, FLS, GME, GS, MA, NYX, SNDK, SWK, URE, BA, CRUS, ACN, AIV, ATI, CREE, DECK, DHR, DOW, FAS, STI, TIE, UAUA, UCO, USO, V, DLR, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, JEC, NTRI, ESI, BAC, MHS, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

ES and NQ futures point to a higher open and continuation of Wednesday's support bounce...TLT is up 22 cents and the EURO is up 28 pips...

Trading UpNFLX, UNP, PCLN, MA, PCP, BUCY, FFIV, SKX, FCX, CLF, WLT, CREE, VMW, AGU, MOS, WHR, BA, URE, CAT, X, SNDK, V, TIE, POT, DOWN, CRM, VECO, UAUA, MHS, MCD, LVS, FDX, UPS, USD, AMX, FAS, CRUS, VOD, RMBS, GS, PNC, AKS

Trading Down - GES. CMG. FAZ

Support Bounce Setups for Thursday - GMCR, HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, GES, CLF, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, NTES, CRM, AKAM, NTAP, BIDU, QCOM, MRVL, INTU, CSTR, LXK, CAM, POT, AGU, MOS

Follow your rules for support bounce entry this morning and for tightening stops and exiting bearish trades that break above the high of the low day...

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

SPX Finds Support...Reverses...Forms Hammer...

Dave is traveling from Sacramento this evening from a great two day Technical Analysis Workshop in Sacramento with more than 200 traders.  We hope everyone travels safely.


DJIA              10,060.06   +19.61   +0.20%
SP500             1,055.33     +3.46   +0.33%
COMPQ           2,141.54   +17.78   +0.84%
Russell 2000       604.87    +9.28   +1.56%

Exchange     NYSE      NASD
Advancing    1,836       1,692
Declining      1,177         980

SOX        321.50   +3.09
VIX           26.70   -0.76

Index   Direction   Confirmation
VIX       Down         Yes – SPX
SOX      Up             Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Wednesday included NETL, CRUS, VECO, LVS, UCO, MHS, ESI, URE, NYX, NFLX, AMD, GES, WHR, USO, AIV, ICE, MA, BYI, WFMI, SPG, CMG, USD, DLR, A, FAS, DECK, SKX, PCLN, RMBS

The SPX fell to 1,039.83, a similar support low to May 25, where buyers took control and created an intraday reversal moving to the SPX up 20 points from its low before closing at 1,055.33. This was the SPX’s first up day since last Wednesday. The COMPQ and RUT formed bullish engulfing patterns.

INDU = hammer bullish harami
SPX = hammer
COMPQ = bullish engulfing pattern
RUT = bullish engulfing pattern

Support Bounce Setups for Thursday - GMCR, HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, GES, CLF, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, NTES, CRM, AKAM, NTAP, BIDU, QCOM, MRVL, INTU, CSTR, LXK, CAM, POT, AGU, MOS

Guidance:
Watch for support bounce continuation to continue on Thursday and trade setups according to your rules.  Adjust stops on bearish trades for a potential exit if they bounce above the high of the low day according to your rules.

Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

SPX
Resistance: 1,071, 1,086, 1,100, 1,115
Support: 1,056, 1,041

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

AAPL+2.96 – bullish engulfing
QCOM +0.61 – bullish engulfing
GOOG +3.23 – piercing line
BIDU +0.96 – bullish engulfing

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: SHLD, APOL, FLEX, GRMN, BIIB, ISRG, AKAM, COST, HOLX, ROST, DISH, CERN, SBUX, WYNN and GILD.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: FWLT, WCRX, JOYG, ADBE, CHKP, HANS, YHOO, RYAAY, CTAS, CTXS, FAST, NTAP, SRCL, CEPH and CA.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, GMCR, HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, GES, CLF, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, FAZ, VMW, CMG, NTES, CRM, WMT, TSL
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
SPG
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA
BYI, CHL, CSTR, FCX, FDX, HAS, HSY, LXK, NDAQ, SINA, UPS, VOD, WLT, A, BUCY, CAT, DE, GR, IPI, PCP, RMBS, UNP, X, AKS, AMX, CAM, FLS, GME, GS, MA, NYX, SNDK, SWK, URE, BA, CRUS, ACN, AIV, ATI, CREE, DECK, DHR, DOW, FAS, STI, TIE, UAUA, UCO, USO, V, DLR, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, JEC, NTRI, ESI, BAC, MHS, WHR


Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down



Tuesday, August 24, 2010

SPX Breaks 1,071 and 1,056 Support...Finds Buyers at 1,046...

INDU           10,040.45   -133.96  -1.32%
SPX              1,051.87     -15.49  -1.45%
COMPQ        2,123.76     -35.87  -1.66%
RUT                 595.59      -7.08   -1.17%

Leading stocks on Tuesday - TSL, FAZ, RVBD, ATW, CRM, V, NETL, MHS, WMT, SPG, AIV

Weak stocks on Tuesday - SNDK, WLT, AKS, LVS, ATI, CRUS, FAS, FCX, NYX, X, NFLX, BUCY, IPI, UCO, AGU, DOW, SKX, BA, FLS, BYI, DECK, GMCR, UAUA, STI, AMX, CREE, FFIV

Dave will be teaching day two of a Technical Analysis workshop on Wednesday.

CTXS, CRM, MRVL and NTES bounced from their lows on Tuesday.

INTU, AKAM VMW, FFIV and GES are forming a flag pattern.

Watch up trending stocks for a new entry opportunity.

Continue to trade down trending stocks below their 30 DMA according to your rules.

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
TSL
Moving Below 30 DMA = 13
BYI, CHL, CSTR, FCX, FDX, HAS, HSY, LXK, NDAQ, SINA, UPS, VOD, WLT

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Lower Open and Break of Support...

ES and NQ futures are lower as are many individual stocks....ES and NQ are below recent lows from last week...TLT is up 86 cents and the EURO is down 23 pips...Trade according to your rules...

SPX

Resistance: 1,071, 1,086, 1,100
Support: 1,056, 1,044

Monday, August 23, 2010

SPX Bounce Fails to Follow Through...Holds Above Support...

INDU           10,171.41     -39.21    -0.38%
SPX             1,067.36       -4.33    -0.40%
COMPQ        2,159.63     -20.13    -0.92%
RUT                602.67       -8.11    -1.33%


Leading stocks on Monday:  MOS, FAZ, WMT, GMCR, NYX, HANS, AGU, HLF, ESI, SWN, MCD, POT, SINA, FDX, CSTR, HSY, UPS, WHR, BYI, CAM, STI, DHR

Dave spent the evening discussing technical trading and vertical spreads with more than 100 traders in Sacramento.  Dave will be teaching a two day Technical Analysis workshop on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Review the charts on Friday's
Bounce Entries - RVBD, NFLX, CMG, HSY
Bounce Setups - AGU, BIDU, CAT, CLF, DECK, FDX, GMCR, MOS, NYX, PCP, UPS, WYNN, X  

VMW, FFIV, GES and CTXS closed just below their horizontal breakout level.  HANS closed above its breakout level.

CRM, NTES, INTU, MRVL and AKAM each had a one day pull back above horizontal resistance after Friday's breakout.  Watch for a new entry opportunity.

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
CSTR, HSY, WMT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 12
A, BUCY, CAT, DE, GR, IPI, PCP, RMBS, SPG, TSL, UNP, X

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

ES and NQ futures pointing to a higher open with about 30 minutes until the open...stocks are higher on light pre-market volume...TLT is down 43 cents and the Euro is down 10 pips...

Trading Down - CRM, FFIV, FAZ

Trading Up - POT, PCLN, WHR, RVBD, NFLX, WLT, UNP, AGU, CREE, SWN, DE, MOS, IPI, CLF, SNDK, VMW, TSL, LVS, FCX, CMG, V, URE, FAS, MCD, MHS, X, CAM

Look at the Setup Charts in Friday's post.

In addition Breakout Setups for this morning - VMW, FFIV, GES, CTXS, HANS
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Stay focused on and trad according to the Chart Signals on Monday.  Follow your rules

Friday, August 20, 2010

SPX Closes at 1,071 Support Level...Forms Hammer Candle...

DJIA             10,213.62   -57.59   -0.56%
SP500            1,071.69     -3.94   -0.37%
COMPQ          2,179.76   +0.81  +0.04%
Russell 2000     610.78     -0.18   -0.03%

Exchange      NYSE     NASD
Advancing     1,240       1,284
Declining       1,733      1,318

Oil             $73.46   -0.89
Gold     $1,227.20   -6.60
SOX          327.88  +1.46
VIX             25.49   -0.95

Index      Direction     Confirmation
VIX          Down            No – SPX
SOX         Up                Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Friday included CRM, VMW, RMBS, RVBD, FFIV, NTES, GES, DECK, NETL, NFLX, CMG, HSY, CHL, PCLN, WFMI, GS, TSL, USD, FAZ, POT, NTRI, AGU, HANS, WMT, AMX, BUCY, MCD, MOS

The SPX moved below Monday’s low before buyers took over at 1,063 on expiration Friday and rallied the SPX to close at its 1,071 support area. The SPX was down just 7 points from last Friday’s close.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

As I said in the Weekly Wrap on Friday, the lack of selling conviction to the downside despite plenty of economic reasons for the market to go down big, suggests that sellers are limited at these price levels. Big money is apparently still viewing a stronger economic environment six to nine months in the future.

Additionally the VIX did NOT confirm the SPX’s lower close on Friday.

On the daily chart the SPX formed a hammer and on its weekly chart it formed an inverted hammer, both bullish candle patterns. The SPX and many individual stocks are in a sideways trend, trading range or non-trending consolidation and at support on Friday.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

INDU = hammer like candle
SPX = hammer
COMPQ = hammer
RUT = dragon fly doji

The question is what move is most probable in a sideways trend with price at support? The most probable development is a price bounce at support in a sideways trend.

CRM and INTU broke through horizontal resistance on Friday after reporting earnings and NTES which broke through resistance on Thursday also following earnings continued higher. MRVL also broke through short resistance after earnings but it formed a trend reversal rather than a new high. AKAM broke through horizontal resistance on above average volume joining CRM, INTU and NTES making new highs.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Bullish Engulfing - RVBD, CMG and HSY all formed bullish engulfing patterns on a support bounce and NFLX confirmed Thursday’s piercing line pattern.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Piercing Line Patterns - BIDU, DECK, AGU and MOS formed piercing line patterns, each in bull flag support bounce. Look for confirmation on Monday.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Hammers - GMCR, CLF, LVS, X, CAT, PCP, GR, WYNN, NYX, FCX, FDX and UPS all hammers in consolidation pull backs. Look for potential confirmation on Monday.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Stay focused on and trade according to the chart on Monday.

Guidance:
SPX
Resistance: 1,086, 1,100, 1,115
Support: 1,071, 1,056

Friday’s trading found support and formed a bullish hammer and a bullish inverted hammer on the weekly chart.  There is a MACD bullish divergence in the MACD Histogram on the daily chart.  Look for confirmation of the hammer and support bounce on Monday.  If support does not hold look for the SPX to move to the next support level of 1,056.

Look to enter bullish trades when a new bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a breakout above horizontal resistance occurs. This could occur on Monday and occurred for some stocks on Friday.

Adjust stops on bearish trades for a potential exit if they bounce above the high of the low day. Enter bearish setups with a new bounce down from resistance or break of support

The VIX fell -0.95 to 25.49 holding above the benchmark 25 level.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -0.24 – inverted hammer
QCOM +0.80 – bullish engulfing
GOOG -5.95 – three black crows
BIDU +0.98 – piercing line

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: INTU, MRVL, AKAM, SYMC, CTXS, BRCM, QCOM, ADSK, GENZ, CHRW, FSLR, LLTC, WYNN, BIDU and RYAAY.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: ISRG, RIMM, AMAT, XRAY, WCRX, ERTS, LRCX, GILD, LOGI, LINTA, GOOG, FLIR, STX, ROST and MSFT.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, VOD, GMCR, HANS, BUCY, CAT, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, DE, IPI, SINA, MOS, POT, FCX, GES, PCP, WLT, X, CHL, CLF, FDX, FFIV, GR, LVS, NDAQ, SPG, UPS, HAS, LXK, NFLX, FAZ, VMW, CMG, A, BYI, UNP, TSL, NTES
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
CRM, RMBS
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
CSTR
Staying Below 30 DMA
AMX, CAM, FLS, GME, GS, MA, NYX, SNDK, SWK, URE, WMT, BA, CRUS, ACN, AIV, AKS, ATI, CREE, DECK, DHR, DOW, FAS, SNDK, STI, TIE, UAUA, UCO, USO, V, DLR, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, JEC, NTRI, ESI, HSY, BAC, MHS, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Thursday, August 19, 2010

SPX Breaks the Low of the High Day with Bearish Candle...

DJIA              10,271.21    -144.33   -1.39%
SP500             1,075.63      -18.53   -1.69%
COMPQ           2,178.95     -36.75   -1.66%
Russell 2000       610.96     -17.08   -2.72%

Exchange     NYSE     NASD
Advancing       558         515
Declining      2,466      2,141

SOX      326.42    -5.68
VIX         26.44   +1.85

Index     Direction    Confirmation
VIX        Up                Yes – SPX
SOX       Down           Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Thursday included NTES, FAZ, NFLX, NTRI, GES, ESI, POT, PCLN, HANS, VMW

The SPX broke the low of the high day after the jobs claims report was higher than expected.  A few stocks like NFLX and PCLN rose.  NTES rose after a strong earnings report  Decliners led Advancers 4.4 to 1 on the NYSE.

The SPX fell to its 1,071 support level Thursday when buyers stepped in causing a support bounce to its close at 1,075.  Remember if support breaks, the index is likely to fall to its next support level at 1,056.

CRM rose +7.59, +7.87% following its earnings report after the close.

Guidance:SPX

Resistance: 1,086, 1,100, 1,115
Support: 1,071, 1,056, 1044

Wait to enter up trending stocks until a new bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day occurs.

Thursday was the break of the low of a high day to enter new bearish trades as we alerted you to watch for in Tuesday’s guidance

The VIX rose +1.85 to 26.44 confirming Thursday’s move down and rising above the benchmark 25 level.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -3.19 – bearish engulfing
QCOM -0.93 – black candle breaks low of high day
GOOG -14.18 – large black candle breaks support
BIDU -1.73 –black candle pullback continuation

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: SYMC, NVDA, NTAP, AKAM, EBAY, CHKP, PCLN, VRSN, LOGI, HANS and ATVI.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: SHLD, WYNN, FAST, SPLS, INTC, NIHD, FLIR, GOOG, PCAR, NWSA, VRTX, PPDI, FLEX, AMGN and BIIB

Stocks to Watch on Friday

Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, GMCR, HANS, BUCY, CAT, HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, DE, IPI, MOS, POT, FCX, FLS, GES, PCP, WLT, X, CHL, CLF, FFIV, GR, LVS, SPG, HAS, LXK, MA, NFLX, FAZ, VMW, CMG, CSTR, A, BYI, UNP, TSL
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 13
AMX, CAM, CRM, FLS, GME, GS, MA, NYX, RMBS, SNDK, SWK, URE, WMT
Staying Below 30 DMA
BA, CRUS, ACN, AIV, AKS, ATI, CREE, DECK, DHR, DOW, FAS, SNDK, STI, TIE, UAUA, UCO, USO, V, DLR, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, JEC, NTRI, ESI, HSY, BAC, MHS, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

SPX Forms Inside Day at 30 DMA...

Dave is traveling from an AT Workshop this evening and will post on Thursday...

The SPX rose slightly forming an inside day after Tuesday big rise...the SPX did form a higher low spinning top with a high at 1,099.77 just below Tuesday's high...the trend is still up...

X rose on takeover speculation...

Strong NDX stocks included...BBBY, FLEX, LLTC, FWLT, ROST, STX, CMCSA, STLD, KLAC, LBTYA, EBAY, NTAP, BRCM, LRCX...

Futures Point to a Slightly Higher Open...

ES and NQ futures are higher with less than two hours until the open..stocks are mixed on light volume...TLT is up 18 cents.and the Euro is up 1 pip...


Trading Down:  NFLX, DE, CAT, USO, CREE
 
Trading Up:  POT, MOS, MHS, BUCY, MCD, UNP, VECO, AAPL, AMZN, RIMM
 
POT, MOS, AGU, IPI, PCLN, LVS, GR, CHL, CAM, VMW, CTXS, AKAM, CAT, CLF, DE, GME, GMCR, HLF, RVBD, MICC, QCOM, BIDU and JOYG and moved higher on Tuesday.


NFLX, NTES and VOD pulled back on Tuesday.

BUCY, CMG, CRM, DLR, FCX, FDX, FFIV, FLS, HAS, LXK, MCD, PCP, SPG, SWK, TIE, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, X, AMZN, CTSH, INTU, EXPD, EXPE and GOOG gave support bounce or bull flag entry signals on Tuesday with a break above the high of the low day.

Support Bounce Setups for Wednesday: NYX, GS, GES, CRUS, UAUA, CAL, TIE, SINA, NDAQ

Stay focused on and trade according to the chart on Wednesday.  Follow your rules.

N100 Flags: WYNN, LOGI, ILMN, HOLX

Dave is teaching 160 traders Technical Analysis and Trading today in Orlando and will be traveling home this evening...

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

SPX Confirms Hammer...Breaks the High of the Low Day...

DJIA              10,405.85 +103.84   +1.01%
SP500             1,092.54   +13.16   +1.22%
COMPQ          2,209.44   +27.57   +1.26%
Russell 2000      626.30   +11.20   +1.82%

Exchange      NYSE    NASD
Advancing     2,401      1,996
Declining          639        659

Oil                $76.30   +1.06
Gold        $1,226.60   +2.10
SOX             328.60   +4.34
VIX                24.33    -1.77

Index    Direction  Confirmation
VIX        Down        Yes – SPX
SOX       Up            Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Tuesday included POT, MOS, A, WLT, IPI, FFIV, AGU, AKS, SWN, URE, X, FLS, CSTR, BUCY, ATI, CLF, SKX, TIE, SWK, DECK, GMCR, LVS, FCX, PCLN, CREE, PCP, BYI, WHR, GR, CRM, HLF, VECO, SPG, ATW, HAS, DE, SNDK, BA, UNP, FAS, UCO, CMG, MCD, USD, ACN, CAT, ZION, RMBS, GES, ICE, MA, JEC, HANS

The SPX opened higher reaching an intraday high of 1,100, the next resistance level and then pulled back the last two hours of trading closing at 1,092. Tuesday’s action did confirm Friday’s inside day as a reversal day. Tuesday did break the high of the low day. Twenty six stocks in our watch list and the NDX 100 gave support bounce or bull flag entry signal while ten closed above their 30 DMA with no stocks made a new close below their 30 DMA.

INDU = doji confirmation support bounce
SPX = hammer confirmation support bounce
COMPQ = piercing line confirmation

POT, MOS, AGU, IPI, PCLN, LVS, GR, CHL, CAM, VMW, CTXS, AKAM, CAT, CLF, DE, GME, GMCR, HLF, RVBD, MICC, QCOM, BIDU and JOYG and moved higher.

NFLX, NTES and VOD pulled back from Monday’s close.

BUCY, CMG, CRM, DLR, FCX, FDX, FFIV, FLS, HAS, LXK, MCD, PCP, SPG, SWK, TIE, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, X, AMZN, CTSH, INTU, EXPD, EXPE and GOOG gave support bounce or bull flag entry signals on Tuesday with a break above the high of the low day.

Support Bounce Setups for Wednesday: NYX, GS, GES, CRUS, UAUA, CAL, TIE, SINA, NDAQ

Stay focused on and trade according to the chart on Wednesday.

N100 Flags: WYNN, LOGI, ILMN, HOLX

Guidance:
SPXResistance: 1,100, 1,115
Support: 1,086, 1,071, 1,056

Enter strong stocks up with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day.

Tuesday was the day to exit many bearish trades that broke above the high of the low day. Wait for a break of the low of a high day to enter new bearish trades

The VIX fell -1.77 to 24.33 confirming Tuesday’s move up and dropping below the benchmark 25 level.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL+4.33 – confirm bullish harami and inside day entry
QCOM +0.50 – support bounce continuation after bullish engulfing entry
GOOG +4.93 – spinning top entry confirms Friday’s bullish harami and inside day
BIDU +0.08 –bounce continuation in bull flag

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: URBN, NIHD, FAST, PCAR, JOYG, FLEX, GRMN, PCLN, BRCM, EXPD, STLD, JBHT, SYMC, CTXS and SIAL.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: STX, APOL, RIMM, GENZ, LBTYA, AMGN, CELG, CERN, VRTX, NTAP, CMCSA and BIDU.

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, GMCR, HANS, BUCY, CAT, HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, DE, GS, IPI, MOS, POT, FCX, FLS, GES, PCP, WLT, X, CHL, CLF, FFIV, GR, LVS, SPG, HAS, NYX, LXK, MA, NFLX, FAZ, CAM, VMW, AMX, CMG, CSTR
Moving Above 30 DMA = 10
A, BA, BYI, CRM, GME, RMBS, SWK, UNP, URE, WMT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA
CRUS, ACN, TSL, AIV, AKS, ATI, CREE, DECK, DHR, DOW, FAS, SNDK, STI, TIE, UAUA, UCO, USO, V, DLR, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, JEC, NTRI, ESI, HSY, BAC, MHS, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Support Bounce and Higher Open...

ES and NQ futures are higher with less than two hours until the open..stocks are mostly higher on light volume...TLT is down 21 cents.and the Euro is up 38 pips...

Trading Down: FAZ

Trading Up:  POT, MOS, AGU, IPI, FCX, CLF, A, VECO, WLT, X, MCD, DE, GS, WMT, FAS, SNDK, USO, AKS, AAPL, URBN, AMZN, BIDU, AKAM

Follow your rules for support bounce entries (see last nights Setup list) and bearish exits this morning...

Monday, August 16, 2010

SPX Holds Support Forms Hammer Candle Pattern...

DJIA                  10,302.01    -1.14    -0.01%
SP500                 1,079.38   +0.13   +0.01%
COMPQ               2,181.87   +8.39   +0.39%
Russell 2000      615.49 10   +5.61   +0.92%

Exchange     NYSE     NASD
Advancing    1,888      1,643
Declining      1,099      1,020

Oil             $75.24    -0.15
Gold     $1,224.50   +9.60
SOX          324.26   +1.52
VIX             26.10    -0.14

Index      Direction Confirmation
VIX          Down        Yes – SPX
SOX         Up            Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Monday included CSTR, GMCR, NFLX, CLF, VECO, CHL, SNDK, TSL, AMD, ICE, USD, IPI, LVS, CMG, LXK, CAM, GME, HLF, UAUA, TIE, DE, AKS, VMW, NETL, PNC, WFMI, VI, FCX, AMX, POT, CAT, X, GES, CRUS, WHR

The SPX opened lower made a lower low at 1,069 and then rallied to close fractionally higher at 1,079.38 forming a hammer pattern. Monday’s action did NOT confirm Friday’s inside day as a potential reversal day. So traders will wait for Tuesday to look for a break of a high of the low day.

INDU = doji
SPX = hammer
COMPQ = piercing line

NFLX, LVS, CHL, CAM, VMW, POT, CTXS and IPI moved higher.

PCLN, MOS, AKAM, AGU and GR while pulled back from Friday’s close.

CAT, CLF, DE, GME, GMCR, HLF, NTES, RVBD, VOD, MICC, QCOM, BIDU, JOYG gave support bounce entry signals on Monday with a break above the high of the low day.

Support Bounce Setups for Tuesday: NYX, GS, FLS, GES, PCP, SWK, BUCY, FFIV, HAS, CRUS, CRM, MCD, X, WMT, WLT, FCX, URE, UNP, SPG, CMG, LXK, UAUA, CAL, TIE, DLR, UPS, FDX, SINA, NDAQ

Stay focused on and trade according to the chart on Tuesday.

N100 Flags: CTSH, INTU, EXPD, EXPE, WYNN, GOOG, LOGI, ILMN, AMZN, HOLX

Guidance:
SPX
Resistance: 1,086, 1,100, 1,115
Support: 1,071, 1,056

Enter strong stocks up with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day.

Continue with bearish trades that continue to make new lows. Exit bearish trades with a break above the high of the low day according to your rules.  Move stops to protect profits if a bounce occurs.

The VIX fell -0.14 to 26.10 confirming Monday’s move down and staying above the benchmark 25 level.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -1.46 – bullish harami, inside day again
QCOM +0.69 – bullish engulfing confirms inverted hammer, bullish harami inside day gap support bounce
GOOG -0.76 – spinning top did not confirm Friday’s bullish harami, inside day
BIDU +1.52 – bullish engulfing confirming Friday’s inside day in bull flag

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: APOL, JOYG, WCRX, CSCO, EBAY, ERTS, DISH, MICC, BIDU, QCOM, FISV, STLD, VRSN, INTC and LOGI.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: RIMM, NVDA, FLEX, ADBE, ISRG, AMGN, ADSK, BRCM, GILD, HOLX, PCLN, GRMN, AKAM, ILMN and SBUX.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, GMCR, HANS, BUCY, CAT, HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, DE, GS, IPI, MOS, POT, FCX, FLS, GES, PCP, WLT, X, CHL, CLF, FFIV, GR, LVS, SPG, HAS, NYX, LXK, MA, NFLX, FAZ, CAM, VMW
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
CMG, CSTR
Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
BYI, CRM, UNP, URE, WMT
Staying Below 30 DMA
CRUS, SWK, ACN, BA, GME, TSL, A, AIV, AKS, AMX, ATI, CREE, DECK, DHR, DOW, FAS, RMBS, SNDK, STI, TIE, UAUA, UCO, USO, V, DLR, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, JEC, NTRI, ESI, HSY, BAC, MHS, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Slightly Lower Open...

ES and NQ futures are just below even shortly before the open...individual stocks are mixed in light volume in pre-market trading...TLT is 1.71 higher and the Euro is up 71pips.

Moving Down:  ESI, PCLN, AGU, CREE, GS, NFLX, UNP, FFIV, ATI, CAT, SNDK, BA, JEC, FAS, AAPL, PCLN, WYNN, GOO, RIMM, AKAM, FSLR, ISRG, BRCM, LIFE, WCRX

Moving Up:  CSTR, ICE, MA, VECO, VMW, CHL, FCX, SPG, ATW, SKX, SWK, CMG

Continue to stay with bearish trades that fail to break the high of the low day and follow your rules for exiting those that bounce...

Watch up trending stocks that made a new low day Thursday or Friday for a potential support bounce entry...
Support Bounce Setups for Monday: NYX, GS, DE, FLS, GES, GME, PCP, SWK, BUCY, FFIV, HAS, CRUS, GMCR, HLF, CAT, CRM, MCD, X, WMT, WLT, FCX, URE, UNP, SPG, CLF, CMG, LXK, CAM, UAUA, CAL, TIE, DLR, UPS, FDX, VOD, NTES, RVBD, SINA, NDAQ

N100 Flags: MICC, CTSH, INTU, QCOM, BIDU, EXPD, EXPE, JOYG, WYNN, GOOG, LOGI, ILMN, AMZN, HOLX

Dave is traveling today to teach an Advanced Technicals Workshop in Orlando...

Friday, August 13, 2010

SPX Rally Fades into Close...Holds at Support...

DJIA              10,303.15   -16.80   -0.16%
SP500             1,079.25     -4.36   -0.40%
COMPQ           2,173.48   -16.79   -0.77%
Russell 2000      609.49     -7.49   -1.21%

Exchange      NYSE     NASD
Advancing     1,379         799
Declining       1,642      1,809

Oil              $75.39   -0.35
Gold      $1,214.90   +0.10
SOX           322.74    -3.01
VIX              26.24   +0.51


Index         Direction Confirmation
VIX             Up             Yes – SPX
SOX            Down        Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Friday included BYI, RMBS, VMW, CAM, FFIV, BAC, AMX, WLT, GR, AGU, UNG, FAZ, CAT, DOW, DLR, HAS, HSY, PCP, UAUA, STI, CRM, MHS, SPG, BA, SWK, JEC, LVS, WFMI

The SPX opened lower and cycled up and down in a narrow range between 1,079 and 1,086, finally finishing Friday at the low end of the range at 1,079.25. The three major indexes formed an inside day which are a potential reversal day.


INDU spinning top inside day
SPX inverted hammer inside day
COMPQ black candle inside day

NFLX, PCLN, POT, MOS, AGU and IPI finally took a rest forming spinning top patterns.

LVS and AKAM moved higher while CHL pulled back.

CAM, VMW, GR, CTXS gave bull flag entry signals on Friday with a break above the high of the low day.

Support Bounce Setups for Monday: NYX, GS, DE, FLS, GES, GME, PCP, SWK, BUCY, FFIV, HAS, CRUS, GMCR, HLF, CAT, CRM, MCD, X, WMT, WLT, FCX, URE, UNP, SPG, CLF, CMG, LXK, CAM, UAUA, CAL, TIE, DLR, UPS, FDX, VOD, NTES, RVBD, SINA, NDAQ

Stay focused on and trade according to the chart on Monday.

N100 Flags: MICC, CTSH, INTU, QCOM, BIDU, EXPD, EXPE, JOYG, WYNN, GOOG, LOGI, ILMN, AMZN, HOLX

Guidance:
SPX
Resistance: 1,086, 1,100, 1,115
Support: 1,071, 1,056

Enter strong stocks up with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day.

Continue with bearish trades that continue to make new lows. Exit bearish trades with a break above the high of the low day according to your rules.

The VIX rose +0.51 to 26.24 confirming Friday’s move down.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -2.69 – bullish harami, inside day
QCOM -0.29 – inverted hammer, bullish harami inside day at gap support
GOOG -5.66 – bullish harami, inside day in bull flag
BIDU +0.18– spinning top, inside day in bull flag

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NVDA, ADSK, STX, NTAP, PPDI, ESRX, FWLT, CTXS, PAYX, ILMN, AKAM, RYAAY, NIHD, AMGN and LIFE.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include: APOL, GRMN, BRCM, URBN, DISH, SBUX, XLNX, JBHT, IACI, CMCSA, INTC, AMZN, NWSA, RIMM and BBBY.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, GMCR, HANS, BUCY, CAT, CRM, HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, DE, GS, IPI, MOS, POT, FCX, FLS, GES, PCP, WLT, WMT, X, CHL, CLF, FFIV, GR, LVS, SPG, UNP, URE, HAS, NYX, LXK, MA, NFLX, FAZ
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
BYI, CAM, VMW
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
CMG, CRUS, SWK,
Staying Below 30 DMA
ACN, BA, GME, TSL, A, AIV, AKS, AMX, ATI, CREE, CSTR, DECK, DHR, DOW, FAS, RMBS, SNDK, STI, TIE, UAUA, UCO, USO, V, DLR, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, JEC, NTRI, ESI, HSY, BAC, MHS, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Flat Open...

ES and NQ futures are near even shortly before the open...Individual stocks are mixed on light volume in pre-market open trading...TLT is up 63 cents and the EURO is down 25 pips...

Moving Down:  SPG, SWN, CHL, WHR, IPI, BYI, URE, FFIV, CMG, GOOG, QCOM, MICC

Moving Up:  VECO, RMBS, MA, AGU, MOS, CRM, NFLX, CAT, VMW, DHR, POT, LXK, GS, CLF, X, ATW, DECK, BA, CREE, ADSK, BIDU, PCLN, WYNN, NTAP, KLAC, RYAAY, NVDA, MRVL

Stay with bearish trades that fail to break the high of the low day and follow rules for exiting those that bounce...

Watch stocks that made a new low day on Thursday for a potential bounce entry...

Support Bounce Setups for Friday: NYX, GS, DE, FLS, GES, GME, PCP, SWK, BUCY, FFIV, HAS, CRUS, GMCR, HLF, CAT, CRM, VMW, MCD, X, WMT, WLT, FCX, GR, URE, UNP, SPG, CLF, CMG, LXK, CAM, UAUA, CAL, TIE, DLR, UPS, FDX


NDX 100 Flags: MICC, CTSH, CTXS, INTU, QCOM, BIDU, EXPD, EXPE, JOYG, WYNN, GOOG, LOGI, ILMN, AMZN, HOLX

Other Bounce Setups: VOD, NTES, RVBD, SINA, NDAQ

As always follow your rules...

Thursday, August 12, 2010

SPX Gaps Lower, Closes Higher, Makes New Low Day...

DJIA              10,319.95   -58.88   -0.57%
SP500             1,083.61     -5.86   -0.54%
COMPQ           2,163.57   -18.36   -0.83%
Russell 2000      616.98     -3.41   -0.55%

Exchange      NYSE    NASD
Advancing     1,294     1,058
Declining       1,730     1,581

Oil                $75.74     -2.28
Gold         $1,214.80  +17.30
SOX              325.75     -4.31
VIX                 25.73    +0.34

Index      Direction     Confirmation
VIX           Up               Yes – SPX
SOX          Down          Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Thursday included LVS, NFLX, IPI, MOS, PCLN, POT, AGU, GES, CHL, TIE, WLT, WFMI, MHS, CRUS, FAZ, UAUA, BYI, AMD, CLF, MA, SKX, MCD, FCX, DLR, ZION, CAM, DE, NYX, HANS, GS, AMX

The SPX opened lower and made its low of the day during the first 10 minutes of trading and moved 10 points higher before closing at 1,083. Today is a new low day with a higher close than open and a potential reversal day. Watch for a break above the high of the low day on Friday.

NFLX continued to move higher with a horizontal breakout. Its new breakout chart target is 160 with within 3 to 8 weeks.

LVS, PCLN, CHL, AKAM, POT, MOS, AGU and IPI gave bull flag entry signals on Thursday with a break above the high of the low day.

Support Bounce Setups for Friday: NYX, GS, DE, FLS, GES, GME, PCP, SWK, BUCY, FFIV, HAS, CRUS, GMCR, HLF, CAT, CRM, VMW, MCD, X, WMT, WLT, FCX, GR, URE, UNP, SPG, CLF, CMG, LXK, CAM, UAUA, CAL, TIE, DLR, UPS, FDX,

Stay focused on and trade according to the chart.

Guidance
SPX
Resistance: 1,086, 1,100, 1,115
Support: 1,071, 1,056

Enter strong stocks up with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day.

Exit bearish trades with a break above the high of the low day according to your rules.

The VIX rose +0.34 to 25.73 confirming Thursday’s move down.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +1.60 – piercing line
QCOM -1.12 – inverted hammer at gap support
GOOG +0.27 – white candle low day
BIDU -1.58 – spinning top low day in bull flag
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: AKAM, PCLN, AMGN, WCRX, EBAY, ORLY, VRTX, BIIB, ESRX, SRCL, CEPH, TEVA, CELG, NIHD and CMCSA.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: CSCO, NTAP, FLEX, ALTR, XLNX, IACI, RIMM, ORCL, QCOM, BRCM, SHLD, STX, LLTC, FLIR and APOL.

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, CRUS, GMCR, HANS, BUCY, CAT, CRM, HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, DE, GS, IPI, MOS, POT, FCX, FLS, GES, PCP, WLT, WMT, X, SWK, CHL, CLF, FFIV, GR, LVS, SPG, UNP, URE, CMG, HAS, NYX, LXK, MA, NFLX, FAZ
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
ACN, BA, GME, TSL, VMW
Staying Below 30 DMA
A, AIV, AKS, AMX, ATI, CAM, CREE, CSTR, DECK, DHR, DOW, FAS, RMBS, SNDK, STI, TIE, UAUA, UCO, USO, V, DLR, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, BYI, JEC, NTRI, ESI, HSY, BAC, MHS, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down