Thursday, September 30, 2010

SPX Breaks Resistance Before Closing Slightly Lower...

(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers    1,522      1,309
Decliners      1,457     1,332

Index     Direction   Confirmation
VIX         Up          Yes – SPX
SOX       Down       Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Thursday included ESI, UCO, TSL, SKX, USO, A, HLF, CSTR, LVS, UAUA, AMX, SWK, BA, BYI, MHS, MA, ACN, GES

Losing stocks included CRUS, NFLX, MOS, VMW, VECO, NTRI, IPI, DE, SNDK, UNG, AGU, AMD, CMG, SINA, CAM, WLT, NDAQ, RVBD, NETL, PCP, BUCY, CAT, LXK, CRM, VOD, ATW, CREE, HAS, GR, X, RMBS, FDX, FCX

SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

The SPX broke through its 1,148 horizontal resistance level before reversing to the downside. The Financial sector XLF was the leading sector for most of the day, however its early gains turned just below break even.

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Advancers barely led decliners to 1.05 to 1.

Exit short term trades according to your rules with a close below the low of the high day. Look for bearish entry signals with a bounce down from resistance or a close below of the low of the high day.

The VIX rose +0.45 to 23.70, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL     - 3.62 – black candle
QCOM  +0.82– doji after gap
GOOG   -1.90 – hanging man
BIDU     -1.10 – hanging man

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: LOGI, APOL, QCOM, CERN, HSIC, CHKP, BIIB, ERTS, PPDI, SPLS, PAYX and BRCM.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: FWLT, SYMC, CTXS, EBAY, NTAP, STX, LIFE, ROST, JBHT, LRCX, NVDA, ATVI, URBN, ORLY and ILMN.

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, TSL, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ, UAUA, USD, VECO, MA, NETL, ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, CHL, FDX, NTRI, AMD, TIE, V, ATI, BA, CRUS, DECK, DLR, GR, HANS, UCO, USO, WHR, AKS, TLT, BYI, CLF, SWN, CREE
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
MOS, NTES, SNDK
Staying Below 30 DMA
BAC, CRM, GMCR, SPG, GS, NYX, POT, TBT, PNC, X, FAZ, CSTR, UNG, SKX

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Flat to Slightly Lower Open...

BMO - ES -1.75 and NQ -1.25 are near even about an hour before the open pointing to a slightly lower to flat open...the SPX is at resistance 1,148 area with a mixture of positive and weak technical indications...the Financial sector XLF has continued to be weaker than the market this week as interest rates have again retreated....

TLT is up 40 cents and the EURO is up 32 pips in pre-market trading...

SPX
Resistance 1,148, 1,170
Support 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

Trading Down - POT, CRM, CRUS, GS, WMT, TBT, ORLY, ISRG, AMZN, NTAP, BRCM, BIDU

Trading Up - PCLN, TSL, TLT, USO, NFLX, UCO, MOS, CREE, RYAAY, URBN, AAPL, LOGI, RIMM

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

SPX Forms Potential Hanging Man...

INDU          10, 835.28     -22.86     -0.21%
SPX              1,144.73       -2.97     -0.26%
COMPQ        2,376.56       -0.13     -0.13%
RUT                 677.64      +2.21    +0.33%

Exhchagne        NYSE        NASDAQ
Advancers         1,655           1,385
Decliners           1,332           1,225

VIX       23.25     +0.65

Leading NDX stocks - RIMM, STX, LOGI, CHKP, MXIM, DELL FLEX, BIDU, RYAAY, PPDI, BRCM, CERN, SRCL, MRVL and DISH

Lagging NDX stocks - URBN, NWSA, EXPE, ERTS, TEVA, AMGN, VRTX, CEPH, CELG, IACI, ATVI, INTC, WYNN, SBUX, and NIHD

Dave is traveling home this evening from teaching an AT Workshop in Cincinnati.  He will be back and post tomorrow.

The broad indexes were near unchanged continuing to hang out near resistance.  The RUT rose slightly.  Advancers led decliners 1.2 to 1 on the NYSE.  NFLX had another huge day rising 8.77 or 5.42%.

Futures Point to a Flat Open...

BMO - ES -0.25 and NQ +1.00 are near even about two hours before the open pointing to a flat to slightly lower open...the end of the quarter is tomorrow, so typical instituional window dressing may be keeping the market near resistance...today we will watch if buying can take the SPX through the 1,148 resistance and towards 1,170...if not watch your profitable trades for a potential exit if weakness appears...

On Tuesday many stocks were weak in early trading only to rebound in the afternoon and close near or at new highs as the SPX touched Friday's open or S2 before rallying to close near Friday's high...

GMCR is down -4.21 on news....our GMCR virtual trade placed on September 3 closed out with a large profit on Tuesday after hitting its OCO bracket target at 37.90

SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100


TLT is unchanged and the EURO is up 20 pips in pre-marketing trading...

Quoting Down - GMCR, WHR, LVS, PCP, MA, CMG, CAM, FAS, V, POT, CRM, ISRG, URBN, COST, WYNN, SHLD, CELG, LINTA, GOOG, LRCX, KLAC, BIDU

Quoting Up - SNDK, FFIV, BA, AGU, MCD, GS, FAZ, TSL, VMW, AAPL, GENZ, CTSH, XLNX, NTAP

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

SPX Bounces Up From Friday's S2 Level...Closes at Resistance...

INDU        10,858.14   +46.10 +0.43%
SPX           1,147.70     +5.54 +0.49%
COMPQ     2,379.59     +9.82 +0.41%
RUT              675.43     +7.14 +1.07%

Exchange      NYSE     NASDAQ
Advancers     2,124        1,774
Decliners          883           551

Oil               $76.47    +0.31
Gold       $1,310.30   +14.00
SOX            343.80     +5.66
VIX               22.60     +0.06

Index      Direction    Confirmation
VIX             Up            No – SPX
SOX            Up            Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Tuesday included RVBD, VECO, USD, NTRI, BYI, WFMI, CREE, DECK, CAM, GR, SWK, X, ESI, MHS, PNC, TSL, IPI, HLF, DHR, UNG, WHR, AKS, GES, LVS, PCLN, LXK, NETL, AMX, AGU, A, DLR, RMBS, BA, SKX, SWN, FFIV, UNP, UAUA, FDX, NDAQ, URE, ICE

Losing stocks included MOS, CRM, NFLX, TIE, GMCR, TBT, AMD, SINA, FAZ, GS, ATI, NTES, ATW, CHL, POT, BUCY, DE, VOD, UCO

The SPX, INDU and COMPQ reversed Monday’s pull back and rallied to close near Monday’s close. The RUT however made a new high close at 675, four points higher than Monday’s close. The SPX fell to Monday’s S2 level before reversing and rallying 15 points.


NFLX fell -3.13 and closed at 161.86.

Friday’s Bull Flag Entries on Tuesday
RisingSPY, DIA, IWM, CMG, NTAP, RVBD, GES, PCLN, FFIV, AGU, TSL, PCP, HLF, LXK, DHR, VMW, SPG
FallingQQQQ, CRM, VOD, JOYG, BUCY, SINA, GMCR, AKAM, DE

CRM closed below Friday’s low.

The next entry point on many of these charts will be the horizontal resistance breakout. Watch for the breakout entry beginning on Monday.

The SPX returned to its 1,148 resistance. Watch for a potential breakout of this resistance area reached on both Monday and Friday. If the SPX does breakout look at the 1,170 resistance area as the next high probability target.

SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Monday’s potentially bearish candles were for the most part were not confirmed as advancers led decliners 2.4 to 1.

Exit short term trades according to your rules with a close below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a close below of the low of the high day.

The VIX rose +0.06 to 22.60, and is still below the 25 benchmark level. The VIX did not confirm the rise in the SPX.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL   -4.30 – black candle following bearish engulfing
QCOM  -0.52 – bearish engulfing of spinning top
GOOG  -3.24 – hanging man confirming shooting star
BIDU    -1.78 – dark cloud cover

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: FWLT, ALTR, LINTA, NTAP, KLAC, ATVI, LRCX, LOGI, MXIM, XLNX, BRCM, CTXS, CTSH, COST and CHKP.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: FLIR, RIMM, ADBE, BIDU, AAPL, PPDI, QCOM, HOLX, CSCO, EXPE, STLD, GOOG, MICC, FLEX and VRTX.

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ, UAUA, USD, VECO, MA, NETL, ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, CHL, FDX, NTRI, AMD, TIE, V, ATI, BA, BAC, CRUS, DECK, DLR, GR, HANS, UCO, USO, WHR, AKS, NTES, TLT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
BYI, CLF
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA
GS, NYX, POT, TBT, PNC, X, FAZ, CSTR, SNDK, CREE, SWN, UNG, SKX

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Flat to Slightly Higher Open...Bounce Continuation or Pull Back?

BMO - ES +0.50 and NQ +5.00 futures are slightly higher with less than two hours before the open and point to a slightly higher open...Watch this mornings open...if trading goes below Friday's S1 look for a pull back...if trading holds above this short term level watch for trend continuation...

TLT is quoting down 41cents and the EURO is trading 31 pips higher...

SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

Quoting Down - USD, FFIV, POT, SINA, TLT, WHR, ACN, ICE, CLF, USO, VOD

Quoting Up - ESI, RVBD, CRM, PNC, MA, VMW, PCP, STI, MOS, CMG, LXK, HLF, BA, ZION, CAM, TBT, JEC, FDX

Monday, September 27, 2010

SPX Pauses...Holds Above Friday's S1...

INDU       10,812.04     -48.22   -0.44%
SPX          1,142.16       -6.51   -0.57%
COMPQ     2,369.77    -11.45   -0.48%
RUT             668.29      -2.72   -0.41%

Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers     1,259       1,051
Decliners       1,726       1,615

Oil           $76.16   -0.36
Gold   $1,296.30   -2.30
SOX        343.80   -2.34
VIX           22.54  +0.83

Index   Direction   Confirmation
VIX         Up            Yes – SPX
SOX        Down       Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Monday included LVS, GMCR, RMBS, NETL, DECK, NTES,, SKX, AMD, FAZ, ATW, MOS, HANS, CRUS, TLT, NFLX, CMG, HAS, DLR, TIE, GES, BUCY, V, JEC, SINA, ICE, ATI, MA, AKS, PCLN

Losing stocks included ESI, TBT, PNC, UNG, BAC, FAS, TSL, VECO, AIV, NDAQ, CRM, URE, WHR, IPI, SWN, HLF, PCP, WFMI, HSY, SPG, NYX, USD, VOD, CREE, MHS, CSTR, WMT, RVBD, BA, DHR, X, ZION

The SPX failed to break through its 1,148 resistance and the four broad indexes pulled back on Monday while staying above their respective S1 levels on Friday.

NFLX moved higher on Monday closing at 164.99.

The 26 bull flag entries from Friday including SPY, DIA, QQQQ and IWM on Monday stayed above their recent support low. CRM and VOD closed near their recent low. CMG, JOYG, BUCY, GES, SINA, PCLN, GMCR, FFIV and AKAM continued to rise on Monday.

SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

The SPX pulled back follow last week’s rising three methods trend continuation five candle pattern. The pull back on Monday stayed above Friday’s S1 level.

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

On Monday many charts formed potentially bearish candles that could lead to a short term pull back if confirmed.  Exit short term trades according to your rules with a break below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a break of the low of the high day.

The VIX rose +0.83 to 22.54, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL    -1.15 – bearish engulfing of doji
QCOM +0.04 – spinning top
GOOG  +3.12 – potential shooting star
BIDU    +5.99 – large white candle did not confirm Friday’s potential hanging man

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: BIDU, HANS, SYMC, RYAAY, KLAC, CHKP, ERTS, MCHP, GOOG, LBTYA, FSLR, AKAM, FLEX, JOYG and PCLN.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: ISRG, SHLD, WYNN, VRTX, LLTC, GRMN, BIIB, NWSA, JBHT, APOL, NVDA, PPDI, TEVA, NTAP and GILD.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ, UAUA, USD, VECO, MA, NETL, ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, CHL, FDX, NTRI, AMD, TIE, V, ATI, BA, BAC, CRUS, DECK, DLR, GR, GS, HANS, UCO, USO, WHR
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
AKS, NTES, TLT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
CLF, GS, NYX, TBT
Staying Below 30 DMA
BYI, PNC, X, FAZ, CSTR, SNDK, CREE, SWN, UNG, SKX

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Slightly Higher Open...

BMO - ES +2.25 and NQ +4.00 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a slightly higher open...after Friday's large gain bull flag bounce in the indexes and many individual stocks, price could move higher or pause and short term traders must be prepared for either...if prices pause watch Friday's S1 level as key short term support to let you know that Monday's action is likely the pause that refreshes...if price breaks the SPX 1,148 resistance, look for price to move towards the 1,170 resistance area...

TLT +1.05 and the EURO is up 5 pips in pre-market trading...

ISRG is gapping down in pre-market trading...More stocks are trading higher than lower in pre-market trading...

SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

Trading Down - NFLX, ATI, TBT, MHS, VECO, ISRG, ESRX, WYNN, PCAR, JBHT, AMZN, CTSH, RIMM, CELG, CHKP, TEVA
 
Trading Up - PCLN, TLT, VMW, ESI, FFIV, CMG, FDX, POT, UAUA, DE, V, CREE, DAM, URE, CRUS, ATW, AGU, X, CLF, MCD, GS, LVS, USO, GOOG, BICU, AAPL, MCHP, BBY, FSLR, EXPE, RYAAY, XLNX, GENX, AKAM, BRCM

Friday, September 24, 2010

Bull Flag Bounce...I Hope You Got Yours Today...

A little seen Rising Three Methods candle pattern this week on the SPX, RUT, other indexes and many stocks suggests trend continuation...next SPX resistance 1,170...
(click image to enlarge)
Exchange    NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers   2,526       2,160
Decliners       543          519

 (click image to enlarge)
Index    Direction    Confirmation
VIX        Down          Yes – SPX
SOX       Up              Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Friday included FAS, ATI, USD, CRUS, AMD, AGU, TIE, LVS, URE, A, STI, CAT, CSTR, WHR, NDAQ, UCO, NETL, VECO, DOW, ZION, CMG, FLS, TSL, UNP, PCP, IPI, SWK, ICE, BUCY, CAM, NTRI, BAC, PNC, CREE, GES, BA, AIV, HLF, GR, DECK, X, LXK, WLT, NYX, FCX, DHR, VMW, SPG, TBT, SINA, CLF

Losing stocks included FAZ, UNG, TLT, ACN, NTES

This week I have be alerting you to the Bull Flag Setup on the broad indexes. In our Thursday post I alerted you these 22 stocks forming a bull flag and to be prepared for an entry: AGU, NTAP, CMG, JOYG, TSL, PCP, BUCY, GES, HLF, LXK, DHR, VMW, SPG, SINA, PCLN, DE, RVBD, CRM, GMCR, VOD, FFIV and AKAM.
(click image to enlarge)
On Friday ALL 22 stocks bounced in their bull flag patterns along with the SPY, DIA, QQQQ and IWM for a total of 26 bull flag entries. And of course there were a lot more in our watch list and the NDX 100 that I didn’t specifically mention. I hope you got yours for some of the terrific gains available.

The next entry point on many of these charts will be the horizontal resistance breakout. Watch for the breakout entry beginning on Monday.

The SPX returned to its 1,148 resistance. Watch for a potential breakout of this resistance area reached on both Monday and Friday. If the SPX does breakout look at the 1,170 resistance area as the next high probability target.

Financial +2.64% and semiconductor +4.00% stocks both had above average moves on Friday but over the past several weeks have trailed the broader averages and have the potential for above average returns moving forward if the broad market continues its recent up trend.

SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

The SPX bounced in a rising three methods trend continuation candle pattern.

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day. Many up trending stocks bounced and gave bull flag entry signals on Friday.

Exit short term trades according to your rules with a break below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a break of the low of the high day.

The VIX fell -2.16 to 21.71, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL    +3.40 – doji did not confirm potential shooting star
QCOM   +0.90 – white candle
GOOG +13.81 – large white candle did not confirm potential shooting star
BIDU     +2.80 – potential hanging man

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: SHLD, ALTR, NVDA, LRCX, AMZN, FLEX, STX, XLNX, EXPE, BRCM, NTAP, GRMN, JBHT, LINTA and DELL.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: ATVI, ORCL, FWLT, APOL, DTV, AKAM, WCRX, GENZ, VRSN and BBBY.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, GS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ, UAUA, USD, VECO, MA, NETL, ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, CHL, FDX, NTRI, AMD, TIE, V
Moving Above 30 DMA = 15
ATI, BA, BAC, CLF, CRUS, DECK, DLR, GR, GS, HANS, NYX, TBT, UCO, USO, WHR
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
TLT
Staying Below 30 DMA
AKS, BYI, PNC, X, NTES, FAZ, CSTR, SNDK, CREE, SWN, UNG, SKX

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Much Higher Open...Best of Success...

BMO - ES +12.25 and NQ +21.25 futures are higher in pre-marekt trading pointing to a higher open...

TLT is down 85 cents and the EURO is up 146 pips...

Trading Down - TLT, FAZ, NETL, PNC, AMGN

Trading Up - PCLN, NFLX, CRM, WLT, MA, FFIV, DECK, POT, FCX, VMW, CAT, DE, BUCY, AGU, CLF, AMX, GS, VECO, SPG, CSTR, WHR, URE, V, HLF, FDX, CMG, V, NTES, ICE, X, BA, RVBD, CREE, CHL, MCD, TBT, LXK, LVS, FAS, GMCR, SNDK, UAUA, ATI, SKX, CRUS, UPS, PNC, ZION, TIE, ATW, GME, MOS, AKS, WMT, TSL, DOW, AMD, USO, WFMI, GOOG, AAPL, FLSR, AMZN, BIDU, WYNN, NTAP, INFY, AKAM, CTXS, CTSH, APOL, RIMM, BIIB, ESRX, JOYG, MCHP, TEVA, MRVL, TEVA

Thursday, September 23, 2010

SPX Bull Flag Pull Back Day 3...

All four of the broad indexes pulled back for the third day in a bull flag price pattern...
(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE     NASDAQ
Advancers      904            882
Decliners     2,118         1,726

 (click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX          Up               Yes – SPX
SOX         Up               No – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Thursday included FAZ, MHS, CSTR, SINA, NFLX, AMD, CREE, NTES, FFIV, MOS, ESI, UNG, RVBD, USD, AMX, CMG, GES, V, UCO, ACN, CAM, PNC, TLT, HANS, USO, SWN

Losing stocks included FAS, URE,IPI, X, AKS, AIV, LVS, ATI, AGU, FLS, BUCY, SPG, SWK, ZION, STI, GS, BYI, BA, FDX, WLT, GR, PCP, BAC, CLF, HLF, UNP, ICE, UPS, DLR, DOW, SNDK, DHR, VMW, JEC, DE, NETL, LXK, UAUA, CRM, WHR, ATW, NYX, WFMI, VOD

NFLX moved to its 160 price target.

Bull Flag Setups for Friday:  RVBD, LXK, DE, CRM, AGU, AKAM, BUCY, CMG, DHR, FFIV, GES, GMCR, HLF, JOYG, NTAP, PCLN, PCP, SINA, SPG. TSL, VOD, VMW
(click image to enlarge)
SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

The SPX pulled back for the third straight day.

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day as many up trending stocks are in two day bull flags right now.

Exit short term trades according to your rules with a break below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a break of the low of the high day.

The VIX rose +1.36 to 23.87, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +1.17 – potential shooting star
QCOM +0.35 – white candle did not confirm potential hanging man
GOOG -2.52 – potential shooting star
BIDU +3.22 – large white candle did not confirm inside day

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: HOLX, BIDU, BBBY, NIHD, KLAC, MXIM, NVDA, ROST, ESRX, CTXS, GRMN, RYAAY, LLTC, AKAM and AMAT.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: WYNN, FWLT, JOYG, SRCL, MICC, JBHT, FLIR, EXPD, DELL, SBUX, LOGI, VRSN, CHRW, ADSK and WCRX.

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, GS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ, UAUA, USD, VECO, MA, NETL, ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, CHL, FDX, NTRI, AMD, TIE, TLT, V
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 9
AKS, ATI, BA, BAC, CLF, DLR, GR, GS, WHR
Staying Below 30 DMA
BYI, DECK, HANS, NYX, TBT, PNC, X, NTES, UCO, USO, FAZ, CSTR, SNDK, CRUS, CREE, SWN, UNG, SKX

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

BMO - ES -8.00 and NQ -10.50 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open...if the pre-marekt trend continues, Thursday will be day 3 of the current pullback or bull flag...More stocks are down than up about an hour before the open...pre-market volume is light...

TLT is up 22 cents and the EURO is down 70 pips...More stocks are down than up about an hour before the open...pre-market volume is light...

SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100


Trading Down - PCLN, MA, GS, CMG, HLF, FCX, CLF, FFIV, CAT, V, FAS, POT, SINA, BA, ATI, X, SNDK, USO, VOD, DECK, DE, BUCY, USD, URE, SKX, GMCR, UCO, GOOG, VRTX, NTAP, CERN, AAPL, BIDU, WYNN, AMZN, ESRX, RIMM, BIIB, MRVL, BRCM, DTV 

Trading Up - NFLX, CSTR, VMW, ICE, FAZ, RVBD, CAM, TLT, BBBY, AKAM, NVDA

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

SPX in Bull Flag Pattern Above Horizontal Resistance

The four broad indexes are in a two day bull flag with the INDU and the SPX the strongest and the COMPQ and RUT the weakest…The SPX which broke out of its 1,130 horizontal resistance on Monday continues above that level in its bull flag
(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE   NASDAQ
Advancers    1,129         877
Decliners      1,892      1,767
(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX           Up             Yes – SPX
SOX         Down         Yes – COMPQ


Leading stocks on Wednesday included NFLX, LVS, FAZ, TIE, TSL, CLF, FCX, AN, AGU, MOS, AMD, MHS, ATW, V, MA, TLT, FDX, UPS, SNDK, AMX, UNG, BUCY

Losing stocks included SKX, RVBD, FAS, ZION, UAUA, SINA, X, GMCR, DECK, BYI, CRUS, FFIV, HAS, NYX, NETL, USD, PNC, WHR, CRM, GS, URE, LXK, TBT, DLR, BAC, AIV, CMG, GR, WFMI, STI, DE, NTRI, CSTR, A, CREE, SPG

On Monday in my Technical Analysis Workshop in Seattle,  I pointed out that NFLX was setting up a potential entry if it went above the high of the low day.  Tuesday I pointed out that the chart did give a buy signal and that the chart target was 160.  On Wednesday it moved big towards that target even though the market went down.  LVS gave and entry signal today and TSL and BUCY are setup for potential entry on Thursday.
(click image to enlarge)
SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

The SPX pulled back for a second day following Monday’s breakout and held near Monday’s S1 level closing at 1,134, staying above 1,130.

Be prepared to enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day as many up trending stocks are in two day bull flags right now.

Exit short term trades according to your rules with a break below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a break of the low of the high day.

The VIX rose +0.16 to 22.51, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral still above 1,130.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.
AAPL   +3.98 – large white candle
QCOM   -0.21 – potential hanging man
GOOG  +2.54 – white candle inside day just above horizontal resistance
BIDU    +0.62 – spinning top inside day

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: SHLD, ORLY, ROST, COST, ORCL, AAPL, RIMM, ESRX, AMGN, JOYG, NVDA, ATVI, AMZN, GENZ and BIDU.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: ADBE, BIIB, AKAM, ADSK, ALTR, HOLX, NIHD, STX, BRCM, CTXS, XLNX, FLEX, MCHP, NWSA and MSFT.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, CLF, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DLR, DOW, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, AKS, CAT, ICE, BAC, FAS, FDX, FLS, GS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ, UAUA, USD, VECO, MA, NETL, ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, GR, CHL, FDX, HANS, NTRI, WHR, AMD, BA
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
CLF, TIE, TLT, V
Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
BYI, DECK, HANS, NYX
Staying Below 30 DMA
TBT, PNC, X, NTES, UCO, USO, FAZ, CSTR, SNDK, CRUS, CREE, SWN, UNG, SKX

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

BMO -  ES -3.75 and NQ -7.75 point to a lower open...the SPX hit 1,148 resistance on Tuesday and pulled back to Monday's S1 forming a new high day...watch for a potential break below the low of the high day and follow your rules for a short term exit if one occurs on Wednesday...

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

SPX Pauses and Holds Above Monday's S1....

INDU          10,761.03  +7.41  +0.07%
SPX             1,139.78   -2.93   -0.26%
COMPQ        2,349.35   -6.48   -0.28%
RUT                664.66   -5.32   -0.79%

Exchange     NYSE     NASDAQ
Advancers    1,073        1,002
Decliners      1,913        1,640

SOX     335.29    -0.83
VIX        22.35   +0.85

Index    Direction    Confirmation
VIX          Up             Yes – SPX
SOX         Down        Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Monday included UAUA, NFLX, GMCR, FAZ, LXK, CAT, NTRI, UNG, TLT, AMD, AMX, FDX, PCP, BA, ATW, UNP, CRUS, MCD, MHS, USD, SWN, SINA, A, JEC, CHL, DOW

Losing stocks included SNDK, URE, SKX, UCO, VECO, ATI, TSL, TBT, MOS, PNC, DECK, IPI, FAS, WFMI, DLR, ZION, CLF, PCLN, WHR, USO, STI, LVS, AGU, CRM, ICE, CSTR, AIV, FFIV, NYX, VMW, CMG, RMBS, GES, X, SPG, BUCY, HLF, NDAQ, HAS

SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

The SPX paused following Monday’s breakout and pulled back to Monday’s S1 level at 1,136 before closing at 1,140 and staying above 1,130.

Enter bullish trades with a breakout of horizontal resistance or a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day.

Exit short term trades according to your rules with a break below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a break of the low of the high day.

The VIX rose +0.85 to 22.35, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NVDA, RIMM, FWLT, YHOO, KLAC, TEVA, CELG, BIDU, STX and QCOM.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: PCLN, WYNN, NTAP, APOL, ISRG, LLTC, CTXS, GRMN, CTSH, ORCL, ROST, AMZN, HSIC and URBN.

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, CLF, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DLR, DOW, NYX, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, BYI, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, AKS, CAT, ICE, BAC, FAS, FDX, FLS, GS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ, UAUA, USD, VECO, DECK, MA, NETL, ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, GR, CHL, FDX, HANS, NTRI, WHR
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
AMD, BA
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
TBT
Staying Below 30 DMA
PNC, X, CLF, NTES, TLT, UCO, USO, V, FAZ, CSTR, SNDK, CRUS, CREE, TIE, SWN, UNG, SKX

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Slightly Higher Open...

ES +2.50 and NQ +6.00 futures are up in pre-market trading and point to a slightly higher open...

TLT is up 34 cents and the EURO is up  73 pips...

 More stocks are trading up than down and rising stocks have more pre-market volume that falling stocks...

SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130m 1,115, 1,100

Trading Down - WFMI, SNDK, CSTR, TBT, DECK, CREE, FSLR, APOL, LLTC, EXPE

Trading Up - PCLN, MA, UPS, SINA, VMW, WHR,  BUCY, CLF, MCD, GS, USD, TLT, FCX, GMCR, BA, FAS, CRUS, X, ISRG, MICKK, AAPL, GOOG, INFY, CTXS, BIDU, AKAM, QCOM, DTV, ADBE, BIDU, RIMM, TEVA, KLAC

Monday, September 20, 2010

SPX Breaks 1,130 Resistance Moves to 1,142

INDU        10,753.62 +145.77   +1.37%
SPX           1,142.71   +17.12   +1.52%
COMPQ     2,355.83   +40.22   +1.74%
RUT              669.98   +18.54   +2.85%

Exchange      NYSE   NASDAQ
Advancers      2,490     2,151
Decliners           560       564

SOX        336.12   +1.77
VIX           21.50    -0.51
 
Index     Direction    Confirmation
VIX          Down         Yes – SPX
SOX         Up              Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Monday included WHR, SINA, OWW, FAS, CRM, IPI, URE, ESI, PCLN, FFIV, NTRI, UCO, AMX, VECO, VMW, RVBD, DECK, WFMI, MHS, V, FLS, ZION, BAC, ACN, WLT, MA, CAM AIV, CRUS, JEC, CAT, UAUA, HLF, GR, SPG, FCX, LXK, VOD, PCP, CHL, SWK, NETL, USO, NFLX, DOW, DLR, HSY, DE

Losing stocks included FAZ, UNG, X, CREE, TBT, SNDK, TSL, PNC, NYX, AMD, ICE

SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

With the SPX at the key 1,130 resistance level and pivot point on Friday, buyers took control on Monday. The SPX broke above its 1,130 resistance for the first time since mid-May. The breakout was on a large white candle with breadth both in all nine sector ETFs rising, XLY and Financials XLF leading, and confirmation from the VIX.

Enter bullish trades with a breakout of horizontal resistance or a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day. There are numerous stocks in our list that broke  horizontal resistance today.

Wait to exit short term trades according to your rules with a break below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a break of the low of the high day.

The VIX fell -0.51 to 21.50, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL     +7.86 – large white candle on horizontal breakout
QCOM  +0.48 – white candle
GOOG +18.13 – large white candle rising to horizontal resistance
BIDU     +4.14 – large white candle horizontal breakout on rising volume

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: FLEX, APOL, BIDU, GRMN, PCLN, GOOG, ISRG, NWSA, WYNN, PCAR, RYAAY, GILD, SBUX, AAPL and ESRX.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: RIMM, BRCM, MRVL, XLNX, HOLX, CSCO, SRCL, YHOO, BIIB, DTV and COST.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, CLF, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DLR, DOW, NYX, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, BYI, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, AKS, CAT, ICE, BAC, FAS, FDX, FLS, GS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ, UAUA, USD, VECO, DECK, MA, NETL, TBT, ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, GR
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
CHL, FDX, HANS, NTRI, WHR
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
PNC, X
Staying Below 30 DMA
CLF, NTES, TLT, UCO, USO, V, FAZ, CSTR, SNDK, BA, CRUS, CREE, TIE, SWN, UNG, SKX, AMD

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

ES +3.25 and NQ +5.00 futures are higher in pre-market trading and point to a higher open...

TLT is up 48 cents and the EURO is down 18 pips...

More stocks are moving higher than down on moderate pre-market volume...Watch for a potential horizontal resistance breakout on the SPX...

SPX
Resistance: 1,130, 1,148
Support: 1,115, 1,100, 1,086

Trading Down - USD, X, PNC, TBT, CREE, ACN, CERN, EXPE, ADSK, XLNX, AKAM

Trading Up - PCLN, NFLX, FFIV, HAS, POT, CRM, FCX, VMW, CHL, GMCR, TLT, SKX, GS, MOS, AGU, RVBD, MA, FDX, RMBS, BYI, PCP, CRUS, WFMI, V, VECO, DE, GOOG, FSLR, WYNN, PCAR, AAPL, ADBE, GRMN, CELG, NTAP, BBBY, CTXS, BRCM, DTV, STX, INTU

Friday, September 17, 2010

SPX on Touches 1,130 and Pulls Back...

The RUT and COMPQ led the broad indexes...
(click image to enlarge)


Exchange      NYSE     NASDAQ
Advancers     1,779       1,560
Decliners       1,223       1,122


Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX            Up              No – SPX
SOX           Up              Yes – COMPQ


SPX
Resistance: 1,130, 1,148
Support: 1,115, 1,100, 1,086

Leading stocks on Friday included DE, ESI, ZION, WHR, IPI, SKX, DECK, GR, WFMI, ATW, PCP, BUCY, CAN, A, CAT, MA, RVBD, DHR, MHS, VECO, UNP, DOW, CAM, GES, PCLN, SPG, CMG, NETL

Losing stocks included SINA, TSL, CLF, CSTR, SNDK, NTES, CRUS, UCO, TIE, NTRI, SWN, UAUA, ICE, BAC, CREE, UNG, USO, MOS, FAS, HANS, GS, POT, GMCR, BYI

The COMPQ has broken through its August horizontal resistance on the strength of AAPL, AKAM, AMZN CTXS, INTU, ORCL, PCLN and on the rebound in GOOG. The SPX is right at its August resistance. The INDU and RUT are both below their August resistance levels.


With the September quarterly options and futures expiration complete we will look for signs of buyers or sellers gaining control on Monday. This key resistance level is a pivot point, meaning price can pivot or move higher by breaking out of resistance or can pivot or move down by bouncing down from resistance.

The VIX did not confirm the rise in the SPX on Friday by moving lower.

We’ll be watching the Euro, interest rates and the VIX on Monday for confirmation of Monday’s move in either direction.

Look to enter bullish trades with a breakout of horizontal resistance or a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day. There are numerous stocks in our list that have already broken resistance and have paused or pulled back over the past one to three trading days.

Wait to exit short term trades according to your rules with a break below the low of the high day. A few charts may have given exit signals on Friday. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a break of the low of the high day.

The VIX rose +0.29 to 22.01, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is up
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -1.20 – black spinning top
QCOM +0.56 – white candle
GOOG +9.09 – large white candle
BIDU -0.36 – bearish engulfing

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: ORCL, EXPE, MRVL, WCRX, NIHD, WYNN, ALTR, GOOG, JOYG, CTXS, LBTYA, APOL, LINTA, EBAY and QCOM.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: BRCM, SHLD, YHOO, URBN, PDCO, BBBY, LOGI, VRTX, HSIC, ILMN, CHKP, FLEX, STX, GILD and LIFE.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, CLF, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DLR, DOW, NYX, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, BYI, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, AKS, CAT, ICE, BAC, FAS, FDX, FLS, GS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ, UAUA, USD, VECO, DECK, MA, NETL, TBT, ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, X
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
GR, PNC
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
HANS, CLF, FDX
Staying Below 30 DMA
NTES, TLT, UCO, USO, CHL, V, FAZ, CSTR, SNDK, BA, CRUS, CREE, TIE, SWN, UNG, SKX, AMD, NTRI, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Higher Open after RIMM Earnings...

BMO - ES +2.75 and NQ +7.25 are trading higher shortly before the open pointing to a slightly higher open...

TLT is +0.54 and the EURO is down 16 pips...

RIMM positive earnings and guidance after the close on Thursday had RIMM trading after-hours up more than four points...this morning before the open RIMM is trading +1.46...

More stocks are trading up on higher volume than stocks trading down on lower pre-market volume...

Trading Down - NETL, WLT, PCLN, POT, TBT, MICC, LOGI, ISRG, GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, ORCL, JOYG, BIDU, AMZN, SIAL, LBTYA, AKAM, FSLR, WYNN, MRVL, NTAP, CTXS

Trading Up - NFLX, CRM, MA, VMW, AGU, SINA, CMG, MHS, TLT, FCX, IPI, X, CLF, BA, CAT, SWN, GME, BUCY, DE, SKX, CRUS, RMBS, GS, CHL, TIE, RVBD, MOS, USD, LVS, FAS, CREE, URE

Thursday, September 16, 2010

SPX Pauses at Resistance for Fourth Straight Day...

The broad indexes paused at horizontal resistance led by the INDU rising 22 points...the more narrow NDX rose +8.51 or +0.44%...
(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers    1,265          977
Decliners     1,730        1,641

(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction      Confirmation
VIX         Down             No – SPX
SOX        Up                 Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Wednesday included SINA, MOS, ESI, GME, HSY, AGU, WLT, UAUA, A, USD, CREE, CRUS, TBT, X, FFIV, IPI, WFMI, UNG, AKS, PCP, FAZ, DOW, BUCY, POT, BYI, CSTR, NETL, ACN, WMT, CHL, TIE, FCX


Losing stocks included FDX, VECO, UCO, ATW, MHS, SWK, SWN, NFLX, CAM, STI, CMG, USO, UPS, RVBD, BAC, NTRI, VMW, AMD, SNDK, TLT, URE, FAS, ICE, SPG, V, NDAQ PNC, JEC, HANS, AMX, DE, NTES, NYX

Positives:
The short term SPX trend is up
The VIX falls
The EURO rose
The SOX rose
The NDX broke out of horizontal resistance
AAPL, PCLN, AKAM, ILMN, FSLR, AMZN leaders making higher highs breaking out
RIMM gaps up after earnings after the close

Negatives:
The SPX at intermediate term resistance
The RUT lagging

As I said earlier on the Active Investor Talk the intermediate term SPX trend at resistance suggests the probability is a pull back. The weight of the other technical evidence listed above suggests that a breakout will occur. A trader should already be long and prepared to stay with the current short term trend in case of an SPX breakout while at the same time having stops below recent short term resistance if the trend breaks support.

SPX
Resistance: 1,130, 1,148
Support: 1,115, 1,100, 1,086

Look to enter bullish trades with a breakout of horizontal resistance or a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day. There are numerous stocks in our list that have already broken resistance and have paused or pulled back over the past one to three trading days.

Wait to exit short term trades according to your rules with a break below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a break of the low of the high day.

The VIX fell -0.38 to 21.72, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL   +6.35 – large white candle
QCOM -0.01 – spinning top
GOOG +0.42 – spinning top
BIDU   -0.21 – doji

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: ILMN, EXPE, KLAC, FSLR, STLD, AAPL, RIMM, AMZN, INTU, CSCO, AKAM, INTC, NIHD and ALTR.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: ATVI, CMCSA, TEVA, LBTYA, SPLS, ESRX, FLEX, ERTS, ORCL, NWSA, LINTA, BIIB, EXPED, NTAP and PPDI.

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, CLF, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DLR, DOW, NYX, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, BYI, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, AKS, CAT, ICE, BAC, FAS, FDX, FLS, GS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ,UAUA, USD, VECO, DECK, MA, NETL, TBT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, X
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
PNC
Staying Below 30 DMA
NTES, TLT, UCO, USO, CHL, GR, V, FAZ, CSTR, SNDK, BA, CRUS, CREE, TIE, SWN, UNG, SKX, AMD, NTRI, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures are Slightly Lower Pointing to a Flat to Slightly Lower Open...

BMO - ES -3.25 and NQ -4.75 futures are lower about 100 minutes before the open and point to a slightly lower open...Most stocks have not started trading gainers and losers are evenly balanced on very light volume this early before the open...

TLT is flat and the EURO is up 77 pips...the strong EURO could help lift the SPX this morning as it seemed to ultimately do on Wednesday...

Trading Down - FDX, CHL, VOD, X, RIMM, AMZN, GRMN

Trading Up - GME, POT, NFLX, FCX, AAPL, MRVL, COST, CSCO

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

The Big Wedding Day Came and We Had an Amazing Time...I Hope You Had a Great Day also...

The RUT and COMPQ led the broad indexes higher...the short term trend is still up and is at the horizontal resistance of the intermediate term trend.  Last Friday I said in the Weekly Wrap that if the recent trading pattern continued that this week might see one large day up and then more narrow trading for the other days...so far that pattern in occurring
(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE     NASDAQ
Advancers    1,593         1,478
Decliners      1,417         1,065
(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX           Up                No – SPX
SOX          Down           No – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Wednesday included MA, NETL, RVBD, GMCR, TBT, SINA, V, LXK, ESI, IPI, CSTR, VECO, SKX, LVS, URE, BUCY, STI, MHS, ATW, UNG, WFMI, FAS, SPG, DECK, HAS, MCD, FDX, VOD, A, RMBS, BYI, CMG, ICE, WHR, SNDK, FFIV

Losing stocks included AKS, CREE, NFLX, UCO, X, ATI, MOS, NTES, CRUS, FAZ, TLT, USO, AGU, SWN, POT, CRM, PNC, PCLN, VMW, AMD, UNP, SWK, CHL, PCP, CAM, GR, HANS

 
Today was my daughter's wedding.  A congratulations and I love you go out to her and her husband!

A special thank you to all of you that attended.  Thank you for sharing this special day with us.

This will be the extent of my commentary today...just be mindful of the trend and the resistance areas as well as watch for the potential break of the low of the high day on Thursday.  Otherwise stay with the trend on the stocks you are trading.

SPX
Resistance: 1,130, 1,148
Support: 1,115, 1,100, 1,086

Look to enter bullish trades with a breakout of horizontal resistance or a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day. There are numerous stocks in our list that have already broken resistance and have paused or pulled back over the past one to three trading days.
 
Wait to exit short term trades according to your rules with a break below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a break of the low of the high day.

The VIX rose +0.54 to 22.10, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL    +2.16 - white candle
QCOM +0.87 – large white candle
GOOG  +0.21 – spinning top does not confirm potential shooting star
BIDU    -0.03 – spinning top does not confirm potential shooting star

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: RYAAY, YHOO, ISRG, STX, NTAP, FLEX, NIHD, QCOM, ILMN, APOL, LRCX, AKAM, ADP, PDCO and WCRX.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: LOGI, CTSH, PCLN, FSLR, MRVL, EXPE, CTXS, DELL, AMAT, TEVA, HANS, INFY, MXIM, VRTX and ATVI.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, CLF, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DLR, DOW, NYX, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, BYI, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, AKS, CAT, ICE, BAC, FAS, FDX, FLS, GS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ, UAUA, USD, VECO
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
DECK, MA, NETL, TBT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
NTES, TLT, UCO, USO, X
Staying Below 30 DMA
CHL, GR, HSY, V, FAZ, CSTR, GME, SNDK, BA, CRUS, CREE, TIE, SWN, UNG, WFMI, SKX, AMD, NTRI, ESI, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Slightly Lower Open...

BMO - ES -3.50 and NQ -2.75 futures are lower just before the open and point to a slightly lower open...

TLT is down -1.16 and the EURO is up 10 pips...bonds down Euro up could help lift the SPX this morning

Most stocks are near even but there are more stocks down than up on very light pre-market volume...

Trading Down - PCLN, POT, TLT, CMG, CRM, NFLX, CLF, GS, FCX, CAT, NTES, FLS, HLF, MOS, USO, FAS, SNDK, SPG, X, DOW, AKS, DE, AIV, VMW, UCO, FFIV, URE, SWN, BA, LVS, ESI, GOOG, PCLN, RYAAY, BIIB, BIDU, AMZN, LOGI, MICC, MXIM, STLD, JOYG, BRCM, NTAP

Trading Up - MA, TBT, CSTR, NETL, V, ATI, FAZ, YHOO, INFY

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

The COMPQ and SOX Rise as the SPX Forms a Doji...

Semiconductor stocks rise for the second day in a row as the COMPQ leads the broad indexes and the SPX and INDU pause at horizontal resistance as the SPX forms a doji...
(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE     NASDAQ
Advancers    1,376        1,114
Decliners      1,592        1,499
(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction   Confirmation
VIX          Up           Yes – SPX
SOX         Up           Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Monday included VECO, CREE, MA, CRUS, USD, VMW, RMBS, V, STI, UAUA, FAZ, SNDK, IPI, ATW, NETL, AMD, PCLN, DECK, GES, WHR, TLT, WMT, VOD, WFMI, LXK, UNP, FDX, WLT, TSL, NTRIL, HANS, CHL, DE, POT, NDAQ, CAN, SKX, UNG, NTES, SWK

Losing stocks included CLF, TIE, X, BA, ZION, RVBD, TBT, BAC, FAS, PNC, GMCR, ATI, JEC, ESI, CAM, MOS, AGU, GS, AKS, LVS, FLS, HLF, BUCY, NFLX, MCD, CSTR, DLR, ICE, CRM, SPG, UCO, AIV, CAT, HSY, URE, SWN

The SPX formed a higher high and higher low doji on Tuesday. The SPY traded 209 million shares rising from Monday’s 178 million shares. The SPX reached 1,127.36 in the area of the 1,130 horizontal resistance before pulling back to close at 1,121.

Sectors were mixed with four rising and five sectors falling. Technology was strongest on the strength of semiconductors and financials were weakest. Decliners led advancers 1.1 to 1 on the NYSE.

Stay focused on and trade according to the chart on Wednesday.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)
VECO higher low support bounce after double bottom reversal
VMW support bounce after return move following an ascending triangle breakout
HOLX horizontal resistance breakout setup
URBN double bottom resistance breakout

Guidance:
SPX

Resistance: 1,130, 1,148
Support: 1,115, 1,100, 1,086

Look to enter bullish trades with a breakout of horizontal resistance or a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day. There are numerous stocks in our list that have already broken resistance and have paused or pulled back over the past one to three trading days.

Wait to exit short term trades according to your rules with a break below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a break of the low of the high day.

The VIX rose +0.35 to 21.56, well below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL   +1.02 - white candle
QCOM  +0.11 – spinning top
GOOG   -1.84 – potential shooting star
BIDU    +0.07 – potential shooting star

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: HOLX, ALTR, XLNX, ILMN, URBN, AMAT, CTXS, LRCX, MXIM, ISRG, RIMM, LINTA, LLTC, SHLE and VRTX.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: CMCSA, JOYG, STX, CA, NVDA, VRSN, FLEX, WYNN, YHOO, CERN, CELG, EXPD, PAYX, NIHD and INTU.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, CLF, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DLR, DOW, NYX, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, BYI, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, AKS, CAT, ICE, X, BAC, FAS, FDX, FLS, GS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, NTES, PNC, RMBS, UCO, USO, ZION
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
NDAQ, TLT, UAUA, USD, VECO
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA
TBT, DECK, CHL, GR, HSY, V, FAZ, CSTR, GME, MA, SNDK, BA, CRUS, CREE, TIE, SWN, UNG, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, NTRI, ESI, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Flat to Lower Open...

BMO - ES -3.25 and NQ -6.25 futures are lower with just less than two hours before the open...a few stocks are lower on light volume at this time with most stocks trading near Monday's close...review our Breakout Setups and Trend Continuation lists in Monday's night post...

TLT is up 37 cents and the EURO is down 33 pips...

SPX
Resistance: 1,130, 1,148
Support: 1,115, 1,100, 1,086

Trading Down - CRM, GMCR, CLF, CMG, FLS, MOS, FCX, X, TBT, FAS, USO, AAPL, AMZN,  RYAAY
 
Trading Up - TLT, HOLX