Monday, October 31, 2011

SPX Moves Lower Following Weak Euro...

All nine sectors moved lower on Monday. XLU -0.46%, XLP -1.49% and XLY -1.54% were the strongest sectors.

On Monday the Euro was down 295 pips to 1.3855 at 5 pm EDT.  TNX closed down -1.31 at 21.75.  TLT was up +4.42.  Financials XLF was down 55 cents.

The Euro started lower on Sunday and continued all day Monday and accelerated it fall during the last hour of trading.  The SPX followed in the same direction.

The broad indices closed below the low of the inside day on Friday with the NDX -1.72%, COMPQ -1.93%, INDU -2.26%, SPX -2.47% and RUT -2.62%.  The SPX moved down -31.79 to close at 1,253.30.  Notice that each index is above its 10 DMA.

(click image to enlarge)

The SPX, INDU and RUT closed below Thursday’s S1 which was the key short-term support level to watch today.  They also formed a non-idealized evening star pattern.  The SPX, INDU and RUT did close above Thursday’s open or S2 level. 


The VIX moved jumped +5.43 to 29.96.  The broad indexes began forming a new bull flag pattern. 

AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM moved lower on Monday.

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 4.43 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.58 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange       NYSE        NASDAQ
Advancers          556              560
Decliners         2,464           2,007          

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday FAZ, HUM, TLT, CROX

Losing stocks < -2.0% included TSL, SOHU, FAS, ANR, A, AKS, X, GMCR, SINA, TBT, ATI, C, ESI, BAC, WLT, GLW, CLF, PCX, FCX, MOS, GS, MCP, POT, ARUN, NVDA, VECO, SNDK, JDSU, RVBD, DHR, SWN, CRUS, INFA, ZION, DOW, CF, GES, CIEN, HAL, IL, FWLT, LDK, STI, CREE, LNKD, CRM, CDE, SWK, SLW, KKD, ENTR, DE, FFIV, SLB, ZAGG, ANF, CSTR, F, NDAQ, CAT, URE, SMH, LVS, WDC, UNP, SWKS, VMW, RCL, DECK

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included DLTR, ADBE, BBBY, XLNX, SPLS, ROST, ORLY, AAPL, DTV and CSCO.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include GMCR, FSLR, QGEN, NIHD, YHOO, LIFE, SYMC, RIMM, NVDA and SNDK.

Five NDX stocks EBAY, FLIR, MU, QCOM and SYMC moved below their 30 DMA leaving 81 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA. 

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 75
IBM, ARUN, DECK, FFIV, ICE, INFA, SNDK, CSTR, F, NKE, ANF, COH, ENTR, NVDA, UNP, DHR, DOW, SMH, SWK, TIF, TPX, V, VMW, C, JNPR, NGLS, RCL, ZAGG, CAT, DLR,  HLF, LNKD, SWN, NTES, WLT, RVBD, SLB, UCO, AKS, FAS, GLW, GS, ZION, A, BAC, CIEN, URE, ATI, CF, CMG, DE, FCX, FWLT, GES, HUM, ANR, HAL, IL, MOS, PCX, STI, CDE, CLF, CRUS, MCP, SLW, SOHU, TSL, CRM, JDSU, KKD, LDK, LVS, NDAQ, X
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 7
CREE, ESI, POT, SINA, TBT, VECO, WDC
Staying Below 30 DMA
CHL, SWKS, UAL, CROX, TLT, FAZ, GMCR

Four Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Lower Open Following Euro Lower...

1:50 pm EDT - The Euro found support just above its 62% Fib level off the Oct 17 low...the SPX is holding support at Thursday's S1 level...SPX moved only about 6 points lower than its open...AAPL is up...AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM down...



BMO – ES -15.25 and NQ -23.00 futures are lower about 30 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a lower open…volume is light for pre-market with more stocks quoting down than up…Financial stocks, XLF is down 29 cents on 565,100 shares in pre-market at this time…

Depending on today’s performance the INDU is positioned for its best monthly point gain and best monthly percentage gain since January 1987 with the SPX looking at its second best monthly gain ever, second only to October 1974.

Two day FOMC meeting this week…

TLT is up 2.26 and the Euro is down 141 pips in overnight trading …

NDX leaders AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM are quoting lower

Dave’s Insight for Monday:  lower Euro in overnight trading is dragging futures lower…leading to stronger bonds…Financials down…setting up a lower open …watch to see if U.S. traders follow the open down or use support as a entry opportunity…1,260 is Thursday’s S1 level and the first area of short-term support…Protect your profits and move stops according to your rules…Bearish trades?  Only if it is according to your rules…

SPX chart indicates a move to 1,363 in 8 to 10 weeks…Follow your entry signals and take trades according to your rules…Watch XLF and breadth as key factors in any SPX move… Trade Gaps that meet your rules as earnings season continues this week

SPX
Resistance: 1,273, 1,300
Support: 1,260, 1,249, 1,230

Quoting DownSOHU, CF, CRM, WLT, CMG, SINA, CLF, LNKD, GS, CAT, GMCR, FFIV, DE, DECK, IBM, SNDK, SLB, FCX, V, POT, X, UCO, HAL, LVS, ANR, FAS, C, TBT, CREE, RCL, SLW, MCP, DOW, RVBD, CDE, CSTR, SLW, TIF, A, PCX, COH, SWK, TSL, NVDA, MOS, AKS, PCLN, GOOG, BIDU, AAPL, AMZN, APOL, FSLR, GMCR, JOYG, FFIV, VRTS, HSIC, SNDK, NFLX, BMC, TEVA, ROST, CTSH, GILD, WFM

Quoting UpTLT, FAZ, HUM, INFA

Friday, October 28, 2011

SPX Pauses with Narrow Range Day, Holding Above Thursday's S1...

Five of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. XLB +0.70%, XLE +0.68% and XLK +0.34% were the strongest sectors.

On Friday the Euro was down 38 pips to 1.4150 at 5 pm EDT.  TNX closed down -0.89 at 23.06.  TLT was up +1.16.  Financials XLF was up 1 cent.

Laggards forming reversal patterns and breakouts led the day again with PCX, X, AKS, TSL, GMCR, ATI, CRM, LDK, JDSU, ANR and CIEN as some of the biggest gainers.

The broad indices were mixed with the INDU +0.18%, NDX +0.06%, SPX +0.04%, COMPQ -0.05% and RUT -0.58%.  The SPX moved up +0.50 to close at 1,285.09.  The market paused on Friday trading in a 10 point SPX range, its smallest range in more than 3 months, while staying above Thursday’s S1 at 1,260.  There was an 11.94 point trading range on Oct. 11.

(click image to enlarge)

The SPX chart indicates a price target of 1,363 in 3 to 10 weeks.  Thursday’s S1 at 1,260 is the key short-term support level to watch going into next week. 


The VIX moved down -0.93 to 24.53.  In the current bull market since March 2009, the 25 level VIX has been the key level between trend stability and instability.  Friday is the first VIX close below 25 since August 3 when the SPX closed at 1,260. 

AMZN +10.54, +5.10%, BIDU +6.23, +4.50% rose following earnings on Thursday.  AAPL, GOOG and PCLN moved higher on Friday.  QCOM moved lower.

(click image to enlarge)

Of the twenty-one bull flag entry signals listed in Chart Signals on Friday Oct. 21, nineteen closed higher on Friday:  AKAM, SIRI, ADSK, NWSA, FLEX, INTU, GOOG, ADBE, CSCO, SBUX, MAT, JOYG, DTV, MXIM, BBBY, INFY, AMAT, LLTC, NTAP, INTC, LRCX.  Only DTV and BBBY closed lower.  That is a 90% one week success rate.

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 1.01 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.27 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange       NYSE        NASDAQ
Advancers       1,484           1,125
Decliners         1,512           1,432          

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday PCX, X, AKS, DECK, TSL, GMCR, A, CLF, ATI, LNKD, SOHU, CRM, LDK, JDSU, ANR, LVS, CIEN, SLW, BAC, HLF, SWN, COH, RCL, ZAGG, WLT, SNDK, ANF, CF, DHR, CDE, NVDA

Losing stocks < -2.0% included CSTR, SWKS, UAL, ESI, CHL, NTES, TPX

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included GMCR, AMZN, BIDU, NFLX, BMC, MU, AKAM, EBAY, SNDK and ADBE.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include EXPE, VMED, SRCL, SHLD, DTV, NIHD, APOL, CMCSA, CTXS and BBBY.

One NDX stock MU moved above its 30 DMA while EXPE and VMED moved below leaving 86 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA. 

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 82
IBM, ARUN, DECK, FFIV, ICE, INFA, SNDK, CSTR, F, NKE, ANF, COH, ENTR, NVDA, UNP, DHR, DOW, SMH, SWK, TIF, TPX, V, VMW, C, JNPR, NGLS, RCL, ZAGG, CAT, DLR,  HLF, LNKD, SWN, NTES, WLT, RVBD, SLB, UCO, AKS, FAS, GLW, GS, ZION, A, BAC, CIEN, URE, ATI, CF, CMG, DE, ESI, FCX, FWLT, GES, HUM, ANR, HAL, IL, MOS, PCX, STI, CDE, CLF, CRUS, MCP, POT, SLW, SOHU, TBT, TSL, WDC, CREE, CRM, JDSU, KKD, LDK, LVS, NDAQ, SINA, VECO, X
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
CHL, SWKS, UAL
Staying Below 30 DMA
CROX, TLT, FAZ, GMCR

Four Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

BMO – ES -8.00 and NQ -7.50 futures are lower about 5 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a lower…volume is moderate for pre-market with more stocks quoting up than down…Financial stocks, XLF is down 8 cents in pre-market at this time…

TLT is down -1.61 and the Euro is down 22 pips in overnight trading …

NDX leaders AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM are quoting lower

Dave’s Insight for Friday:  low Euro…weaker bonds…Financials down…setting up a lower open …the SPX is in a bounce continuation move to the upside…futures indicate a pause which after the strong day on Thursday is typical profit taking…as long as selling stays above Thursday S1 expect the short term trend to continue up…Chart indicates a move to 1,363 in 8 to 10 weeks…Follow your entry signals and take trades according to your rules…Watch XLF, TNX, and breadth as key factors in any SPX move…move stops on profitable trades…Trade Gaps that meet your rules as earnings season continues this week

SPX
Resistance: 1,300
Support: 1,273, 1,260, 1,249

Quoting DownCSTR, ICE, TLT, VMW, V, CHL, IBM, DE, URE, FFIV, UCO, FCX, SWK, CAT, ANR, WLT, HLF, COH, DOW, JNPR, ATI, ARUN, GS, GMCR, MCP, HAL, C, CRUS, PCLN, GOOG, INFY, KLAC, AAPL, CTXS, EXPE, VMED, INTU, ERTS, NFLX, ORLY, GRMN, VOD, ADBE, SHLD, JOYG , SBUX

Quoting UpDECK, CLF, SOHU, CMG, A, LVS, SINA, LNKD, CRM, TBT, SLW, RCL, PCX, WDC, BIDU, NIHD, WYNN, BIIB, ROST, CELG, FAST

Thursday, October 27, 2011

XLF Leads SPX Higher as EU Leaders Reach Deal to Stem Debt Woes...Euro Rises

All nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. XLF +5.96%, XLB +5.43% and XLE +4.43% were the strongest sectors.

On Thursday the Euro was up 287 pips to 1.4188 at 5 pm EDT.  TNX closed up 1.92 at 23.95.  TLT was down -1.66.  Financials XLF was up 79 cents.

Laggards forming reversal patterns and breakouts led the day with LDK, TSL, X, JDSU, VECO, CREE, AKS and ANR some of the biggest gainers.

The broad indices moved lower with the RUT +5.26%, SPX +3.43%,COMPQ +3.32%, INDU +2.86% and NDX +2.79%.  The SPX moved up +42.59 to close at 1,284.59.  The VIX moved down -4.40 to 25.46. 

The SPX chart indicates a price target of 1,363 in 3 to 10 weeks.  Wednesday’s low bounced in the area of Friday’s S1 and the old horizontal resistance area of the past 11 weeks.

AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM moved higher on Friday.

EU leaders found a way to put together a $1.4 trillion agreement to help alleviate the debt crisis of the past two years.  This helped push the Euro higher which had already been rising for three weeks.  A rising Euro, falling dollar helped interest rise which help financials gain almost 6% as Thursday’s leading sector.
(click image to enlarge)

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 7.41 to 1 on the NYSE and 5.06 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange       NYSE        NASDAQ
Advancers       2,714           2,202
Decliners            366              435          

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday LDK, FAS, TSL, X, JDSU, VECO, CREE, AKS, ANR, GLW, FCX, IL, SOHU, URE, DOW, CLF, CL, ZION, GS, HAL, PCX, GES, JNPR, BAC, INFA, STI, SLB, RVBD, ATI, ENTR, ARUN, GMCR, CIEN, UCO, CDE, NDAQ, KKD, CRUS, A, DE, FWLT, MCP, ESI, CRM, CAT, UNP, SWK, ICE, LVS, FFIV, WLT, NVDA, TPX, ZAGG, MOS, DHR, ANF, TIF, NTES, SNDK, CROX, LNKD, SMH, SINA, HLF, SLW, TBT, COH, CF, POT, VMW, V, SWN, IBM, DLR

Losing stocks < -2.0% included FAZ, CSTR

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included CTXS, AKAM, FSLR, XRAY, ADSK, ORLY, NTAP, CTSH, WYNN and FAST.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include NIHD, BMC, VMED, SYMC, CELG, CMCSA, CERN, VRTX, ATVI and DLTR.

Three NDX stocks EBAY, QCOM and WYNN  moved above their 30 DMA making 87 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA. 

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 75
IBM, ARUN, DECK, FFIV, ICE, INFA, SNDK, CSTR, F, NKE, ANF, COH, ENTR, NVDA, UNP, DHR, DOW, SMH, SWK, TIF, TPX, V, VMW, C, JNPR, NGLS, RCL, ZAGG, CAT, DLR,  HLF, LNKD, SWKS, SWN, NTES, WLT, RVBD, SLB, UCO, AKS, FAS, GLW, GS, ZION, A, BAC, CIEN, URE, ATI, CF, CMG, DE, ESI, FCX, FWLT, GES, HUM, ANR, HAL, IL, MOS, PCX, STI, CDE, CHL, CLF, CRUS, MCP, POT, SLW, SOHU, TBT, TSL, UAL, WDC
Moving Above 30 DMA = 10
CREE, CRM, JDSU, KKD, LDK, LVS, NDAQ, SINA, VECO, X
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA
CROX, TLT, FAZ, GMCR

Four Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Up, Up and Away in My Beautiful Balloon Following EU Deal...

BMO – ES +31.75 and NQ +53.00 futures are higher about 25 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a higher open following a EU debt deal…many know I have been saying that a deal would be done and that the recent rally breakout was suggesting that big money also believed the same…so much for all the doom and gloom naysayers who can only see problems and never see solutions…their lack of vision and real insight costs them once again…volume is heavy for pre-market with more stocks quoting up than down…Financial stocks, XLF is up 63 cents on 1,857,800 shares in pre-market at this time…

TLT is down 1.54 and the Euro is up 194 pips in overnight trading …

NDX leaders AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM are quoting higher

Dave’s Insight for Thursday:  higher Euro…weaker bonds…Financials up…setting up a higher open …the SPX bounced up from the horizontal resistance now support of its 11 week trading range on Wednesday, watch for a continuation move to the upside…Chart indicates a move to 1,363 in 8 to 10 weeks…Follow your entry signals and take trades according to your rules…Watch XLF, TNX, and breadth as key factors in any SPX move…move stops on profitable trades…Trade Gaps that meet your rules as earnings season continues this week

SPX
Resistance: 1,260, 1,273, 1,300
Support: 1,249, 1,230, 1,216

Quoting DownFAZ, TLT, V, ESI, BMC, CELG, SYMC

Quoting UpPCLN, GOOG, CTXS, AAPL, WYNN, BIDU, AMZN, AKAM, CMG, GS, CF, CRM, SINA, LNKD, CAT, WLT, SOHU, URE, CLF, DE, GMCR, IBM, SMH, SLB, FCX, SWK, ATI, NTES, C, VMW, FFIV, DECK, ATI, UNP, MOS, UCO, COH, LVS, FAS, TIF, NKE, ANF, MCP, HAL, ANR, A, CSTR, POT, HLF, SNDK, DOW, X, GLW, STI, ZION, SWN, JNPR, RVBD, FWLT, WDC, SWKS, TBT, SLW, PCX, ZAGG, NVDA, BAC, INFA, RCL, NDAQ, CIEN, CROX, JDSU, CRUX, CDE, F, AKS, CHL, CREE, KKD, NFLX, JOYG, FSLR, FFIV, CTSH, URBN, BIIB, CHKP, WFM, XRAY, QCOM, ALXN, ADSK, INFY and more…

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

SPX Rallies Off Horizontal Support Following Test of Breakout...

Due to a technical glitch Dave could not post his Wednesday morning commentary...

Dave is traveling home from Detroit this evening where he taught 147 traders for two days how to improve their trading using advanced technical analysis.  Dave will teach his Stocks and AT Trading rooms on Thursday.


FFIV, ESRX, BIIB, MYL, FSLR, CTRP STX, WYNN, WCRX and SHLD led the NDX which closed flat -1.08 or -0.05%.

AMZN -28.75, -12.66%, CHRW, RIMM, GMCR, ILMN and ADP were the weakest NDX stocks.

Dave will post again on Thursday.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

SPX Closes Below the Low of the High Day as XLF and TNX Move Lower...

All nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday. XLU -1.12%, XLP -1.18% and XLK -1.58% were the strongest sectors.

On Tuesday the Euro was down 22 pips to 1.3906 at 5 pm EDT. TNX closed down -1.06 at 21.28. TLT was up 2.88. Financials XLF was down 40 cents.

The broad indices moved lower with the RUT -3.04%, COMPQ -2.26%, NDX -2.04%, SPX -2.00% and INDU -1.74%. The SPX moved down -25.14 to close at 1,229.05. The VIX moved up +2.96 to 32.22.

AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG PCLN and QCOM moved lower on Tuesday.

NFLX -41.479, -34.90% was down after earnings and lower guidance for next quarter. Market Maker Move forecast was 16.25.

The ES futures pulled back from its pre-market highs and the SPX opened slightly lower and continued to move lower throughout the day. The SPX pulled back to its horizontal breakout level, while closing below the low of the high day on Monday.  It made almost a 50% retracement measuring from its low last week to its high on Monday.  Monday’s high of 1,256 was just below its potential resistance area at 1,263.  The SPX chart indicates a price target of 1,363 in 8 to 10 weeks.

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 4.74 to 1 on the NYSE and 4.33 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange     NYSE        NASDAQ
Advancers       528               474
Decliners      2,504            2,053

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday FAZ, SLW, CDE, TLT, UCO

Losing stocks < -2.0% included AKS, GMCR, CIEN,X FAS, JDSU, TSL, ZION, ANR, ATI, LNKD, MCP, SOHU, LVS, CLF, VECO, LDK, TBT, UAL, DOW, FFIV, RCL, NDAQ, GES, KKD, STI, A, WLT, CROX, GLW, SWKS, SINA, ARUN, BAC, NVDA, V, INFA, CRUS, POT, GS, FWLT, PCX, FCX, WDC, ICE, CREE, URE, ENTR, SWK, ZAGG, TPX, SLB, DLR, TIF, CMG, MOS, SWN, HLF, CRM, C, SNDK, CAT, VMW

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included ILMN, WCRX, LINTA, CSCO, ALTR, MXIM, SLNX, KLAC and SHLD.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include NFLX, PCLN, FSLR, GOOG, AMZN, GMCR, AAPL, FFIV, WYNN and BIDU.

Seven NDX stocks AMZN, CERN, EBAY, ESRX, FLIR, QGEN and RIMM moved below their 30 DMA leaving 84 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA.

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 65
IBM, ARUN, DECK, FFIV, ICE, INFA, SNDK, CSTR, F, NKE, ANF, COH, ENTR, NVDA, UNP, CRM, DHR, DOW, SMH, SWK, TIF, TPX, V, VMW, C, JNPR, NGLS, RCL, ZAGG, CAT, DLR, HLF, LNKD, SWKS, SWN, NTES, WLT, RVBD, SLB, UCO, AKS, FAS, GLW, GS, ZION, A, BAC, CIEN, URE, ATI, CF, CMG, DE, ESI, FCX, FWLT, GES, HUM, ANR, HAL, IL, MOS, PCX, SINA, STI
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
CDE
Moving Below 30 DMA = 11
CHL, CLF, JDSU, LVS, NDAQ, POT, SOHU, TBT, TSL, UAL, X
Staying Below 30 DMA
CRUS, CROX, CREE, WDC, TLT, FAZ, GMCR, SLW, KKD, MCP, VECO, LDK

Four Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Slightly Higher Open and Breakout Continuation...

BMO – ES +4.00 and NQ +7.50 futures are higher about 100 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a higher open…volume is light for pre-market with more stocks quoting up than down…Financial stocks, XLF is up 3 cents on 2,500 shares in pre-market at this time…

TLT is down 57 cents and the Euro is down 4 pips in overnight trading …

NDX leaders AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM are quoting higher

NFLX is -42.54 in pre-market after earnings and lower guidance…

Dave’s Insight for Tuesday: flat Euro…weaker bonds…Financials up…setting up a slightly higher open …the SPX broke out of its 11 week trading range on Friday, watch for a continuation move to the upside…Chart indicates a move to 1,363 in 8 to 10 weeks…Follow your entry signals and take trades according to your rules…Watch XLF, TNX, and breadth as key factors in any SPX move…move stops on profitable trades…Trade Gaps that meet your rules as earnings season continues this week

SPX
Resistance: 1,260, 1,273, 1,300
Support: 1,249, 1,230, 1,216

Quoting DownNFLX, FAZ, TLT

Quoting UpUCO, COH, CF, SLB, X, RCL, AKS, FCX, SLW, POT, AAPL, GOOG, CHKP, AMZN, BIDU, QCOM, MXIM

Monday, October 24, 2011

SPX Moves to New High as XLF Rises and NDX Gains Strength...NFLX Drops 33...

Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. XLB +2.40%, XLF +2.21% and XLI +1.87% were the strongest sectors.

On Monday the Euro was up 35 pips to 1.3928 at 5 pm EDT. TNX closed up +0.31 at 22.34. TLT was up 19 cents. Financials XLF was up 29 cents.

The broad indices moved higher with the RUT +3.31%, COMPQ +2.35%, NDX +2.08%, SPX +1.29% and INDU +0.89%. The SPX climbed +15.94 to close at 1,254.19. The VIX moved down -2.06 to 29.26.

AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG PCLN and QCOM moved higher on Monday.

NFLX -33.09, -27.84% in after hours following earnings and lower guidance for next quarter. Market Maker Move forecast was 16.25.

The SPX continued to rise following the horizontal breakout on Friday. Both the NDX and COMPQ, which each had a bull flag breakout on Friday, also broke above their short-term resistance to a new high on Monday. The SPX chart indicates a price target of 1,363 in 8 to 10 weeks. Potential resistance areas are at 1,263 and 1.313.

The twenty one bull flag entry signals on Friday continued higher on Monday: AKAM, SIRI, ADSK, NWSA, FLEX, INTU, GOOG, ADBE, CSCO, SBUX, MAT, JOYG, DTV, MXIM, BBBY, INFY, AMAT, LLTC, NTAP, INTC, LRCX

Flag Entries on Monday: AAPL, APOL, DELL, MSFT, NVDA

Flag patterns waiting for entry signal: MU, EBAY

Breadth weakened as advancers led decliners 5.06 to 1 on the NYSE and strengthened to 4.32 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange     NYSE      NASDAQ
Advancers    2,631          2,095
Decliners        519             485

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday SOHU, CROX, LDK, ENTR, TSL, PCX, ANR, SINA, GES, GMCR, CIEN, UCO, FCX, AKS, LVS, ARUN, RVBD, RCL, FAS, CDE, JNPR, JDSU, A, VECO, CRUS, CLF, X, ZION, ATI, NTES, STI, INFA, LNKD, HAL, URE, FFIV, CAT, IL, WDC, SLW, ANF, HUM, SWKS, ZAGG, KKD, FWLT, DLR, C, CREE, BAC, GLW, CF, NVDA, SLB, WLT, DECK, COH, DE, UAL, SMH, MCP, ESI, CSTR, DHR, CMG, TPX, CRM, DOW, SNDK, TIF, SWN, CHL, NDAQ, F

Losing stocks < -2.0% included FAZ

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included GMCR, BIDU, FSLR, CTRP, WYNN, JOYG, ERTS, VRTX, URBN and ILMN.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include COST, SHLD, VRXN and MSFT.

Eleven NDX stocks AAPL, BIDU, BMC, CERN, ESRX, EXPE, PCLN, QGEN and RIMM moved above their 30 DMA making 91 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 62
IBM, ARUN, DECK, FFIV, ICE, INFA, SNDK, CSTR, F, NDAQ, NKE, ANF, COH, ENTR, NVDA, UNP, CRM, DHR, DOW, SMH, SWK, TIF, TPX, UAL, V, VMW, C, JNPR, NGLS, RCL, ZAGG, CAT, DLR, HLF, LNKD, SWKS, SWN, NTES, WLT, RVBD, SLB, UCO, AKS, FAS, GLW, GS, TBT, ZION, A, BAC, CIEN, URE, ATI, CF, CMG, DE, ESI, FCX, FWLT, GES, HUM, POT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 14
ANR, CHL, CLF, HAL, IL, JDSU, LVS, MOS, PCX, SINA, SOHU, STI, TSL, X
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
Staying Below 30 DMA
CRUS, LVS, CROX, CREE, WDC, TLT, FAZ, GMCR, SLW, KKD, CDE, MCP, BAC, VECO, LDK,

Four Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Sligthly Higher Open...CAT, HUM, AAPL, DE, FCX and XLF Up...

BMO – ES +3.00 and NQ +8.25 futures are higher about 25 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a higher open…volume is LIGHT TO moderate for pre-market with more stocks quoting up than down…Financial stocks, XLF is up 8 cents on 176,600 shares in pre-market at this time…

TLT is up 57 cents and the Euro is down 18 pips in overnight trading …

NDX leaders AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG and QCOM are quoting higher… PCLN is lower…

Dave’s Insight for Monday:  slightly lower Euro…slightly stronger bonds…Financials up…setting up a slightly higher open …the SPX broke out of its 11 week trading range between 1,100 to 1,225, watch for a continuation move to the upside…Chart indicates a move to 1,363 in 8 to 10 weeks…Follow your entry signals and take trades according to your rules…Watch XLF, TNX, and breadth as key factors in any SPX move…move stops on profitable trades…Trade Gaps that meet your rules as earnings season continues this week

SPX
Resistance: 1,249, 1,260, 1,273
Support: 1,230, 1,216, 1,205

Quoting DownCRM, GMCR, FAZ, SHLD, PCLN, ALTR, TEVA

Quoting UpCAT, HUM, DE, SINA, CF, FCX, CLF, ATI, SLB, LVS, GS, WLT, TLT, HLF, MCP, HAL, POT, CMG, SLW, X, ANR, IBM, MOS, DOW, UCO, RCL, AAPL, ISRG, JOYG, WYNN, BIDU, NFLX, AMZN, GRMN, GOOG, FSLR, XLNX, MAT, ERTS, YHOO, BRCM

Friday, October 21, 2011

SPX, INDU Close Above Horizontal Resistance as XLF Rises...

Check out Tom and Dave at the 17:00 minute mark, click here:  https://www.tastytrade.com/#/


All nine sectors moved higher on Friday. XLY +2.77%, XLB +2.65% and XLF +2.58% were the strongest sectors.

On Friday the Euro was up 114 pips to 1.3893 at 5 pm EDT. TNX closed up +0.23 at 22.03. TLT was down -1.21. Financials XLF was up 33 cents.

Earnings season continues on Monday.

The broad indices moved higher with the INDU +2.31%, RUT +2.30%, SPX +1.88%, COMPQ +1.49% and NDX +1.29%. The SPX broke out of horizontal resistance up +22.86 to close at 1,238.25. The VIX moved down -3.46 to 31.32.

AMZN, GOOG PCLN and QCOM moved higher on Friday. AAPL and BIDU moved lower.

Friday was a horizontal breakout day for both the SPX and INDU and a bull flag breakout for the NDX and COMPQ.  The SPX charts indicates a 1,363 price target within 8 to 10 weeks.  Potential resistance areas are at 1,260 and 1,313.


(click image to enlarge)

Look at the weekly candles of the past three weeks compared to the past eleven weeks.

(click image to enlarge)



Twenty one of the twenty eight NDX 100 bull flag setups on Thursday gave entry signals on Friday:  AKAM, SIRI, ADSK, NWSA, FLEX, INTU, GOOG, ADBE, CSCO, SBUX, MAT, JOYG, DTV, MXIM, BBBY, INFY, AMAT, LLTC, NTAP, INTC, LRCX

Flag Pattern Setups waiting for entry signal: MU, MSFT, AAPL, APOL, EBAY, NVDA, DELL

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 6.78 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.48 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange       NYSE        NASDAQ
Advancers       2,631           1,953
Decliners           388              561          

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday SNDK, CMG, ENTR, FAS, TPX, URE, MOS, FCX, F, ATI, FWLT, ARUN, A, DE, GLW, CF, ANR, IL, CAT, GES, RCL, DHR, ESI, DOW, SWK, TIF, ICE, UCO, CSTR, SMH, JNPR, HUM, NKE, X, COH, FFIV, UNP, IBM, NTES, SLW, CRUS, ZION, CIEN, DLR, V, HLF, TBT, KKD

Losing stocks < -2.0% included FAZ, INFA, LDK, STI, HAL, TSL, VECO

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included STX, ALTR, SNDK, FLEX, BIIB, URBN, JOYG, LIFE, NFLX and ADBE.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include FLIR, WYNN, MU, BIDU, MRVL, VRTX, ISRG, AAPL, CHKP and ORLY.

Six NDX stocks ALTR, DELL, LIFE, MCHP, NIHD and URBN moved above their 30 DMA making 80 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA. 

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 52
IBM, ARUN, DECK, FFIV, ICE, INFA, SNDK, CSTR, F, NDAQ, NKE, ANF, COH, ENTR, NVDA, UNP, CRM, DHR, DOW, SMH, SWK, TIF, TPX, UAL, V, VMW, C, JNPR, NGLS, RCL, ZAGG, CAT, DLR,  HLF, LNKD, SWKS, SWN, NTES, WLT, RVBD, SLB, UCO, AKS, FAS, GLW, GS, TBT, ZION, A, BAC, CIEN, URE
Moving Above 30 DMA = 10
ATI, CF, CMG, DE, ESI, FCX, FWLT, GES, HUM, POT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
STI
Staying Below 30 DMA
CRUS, LVS, CROX, CREE, HAL, SINA, WDC, TLT, FAZ, GMCR, CHL, IL, JDSU, SLW, KKD, MOS, CDE, CLF,  MCP, PCX, SOHU, TSL, BAC, VECO, LDK, ANR,  X

Eleven Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Higher Open...Options Expiration Friday...

BMO - ES +13.00 and NQ +21.00 are higher about two hours before the open and point to a higher open...TLT is down 53 cents and XLF is up 11 cents on just 400 shares...

The Euro is up 19 pips...

Today is options expiration for October...Follow your rules for entry and exit...Watch for a potential breakout of the 1,200 to 1,225 SPX trading range...Check out those bull flag setups from last night's post...

I'll be back after the close...

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Stocks End Mixed as XLF Leads SPX Higher...

The Tom and Dave show went great this evening. Dave will present on Friday morning on Trading the Trend, Know When to Exit at the Chicago World Money Show.


Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. XLF +1.51%, XLB +0.93% and XLI +0.85% were the strongest sectors.

On Thursday the Euro was up 21 pips to 1.3779 at 5 pm EDT. TNX closed up +0.21 at 21.80. TLT was down 82 cents. Financials XLF was up 19 cents.

Oct 17 – 21 Earnings Highlights of Interest:
Monday – C, HAL, HAS, IBM, SWK, STLD, VMW, WFC
Tuesday – AAPL, BAC, CHKP, CREE, CSX, INTC, ISRG, JNJ, JNPR, LLTC, STT
Wednesday – AXP, AMR, APOL, CRUS, EBAY, FCX, LRCX, RVBD, TRV, UTX, WDC, WYNN, XLNX
Thursday – ALXN, ALTR, T, CY, FLEX, INFA, ESI, KELY, MXIM, MSFT, PCX, SNDK, ST, TPX
Friday – MCD, SLB, STI, VZ

The broad indices were mixed with the SPX +0.46%, INDU +0.32%, RUT +0.30%, COMPQ -0.21% and NDX -0.45%. The SPX moved up +5.51 and closed at 1,215.39. The VIX moved up +0.34 to 34.78, a non-confirmation.

AMZN and GOOG moved higher on Thursday. AAPL, BIDU, PCLN and QCOM moved lower.


There are a large number of bull flag setups in the NDX 100 right now, some have earnings over the next several days. Setups that are past earnings or earnings are more than several days away: AKAM, SIRI, MU, ADSK , NWSA, FLEX, INTU, GOOG, ADBE, CSCO, SBUX, MAT, JOYG, MSFT, DTV, MXIM, BBBY, AAPL, INFY, APOL, AMAT, LLTC, NTAP, INTC, EBAY, NVDA, DELL, LRCX

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 1.53 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led advancers 1.07 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange      NYSE      NASDAQ
Advancers     1,806          1,193
Decliners       1,174          1,288

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday RVBD, PCX, TSL, WDC, CIEN, FAS, AKS, UNP, TPX, CLF, MOS, UAL, RCL, DHR, CF, LDK, VECO, C, A, STI, ANR, X

Losing stocks < -2.0% included CRUS, ENTR, NVDA, FAZ, LVS, ESI, INFA, GMCR, FWLT

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included VRTX, ATVI, ILMN, FSLR, AKAM, NFLX, HSIC, SIRI, FAST and YHOO.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include LRCX, DELL, WYNN, NVDA, EBAY, ESRX, BRCM, MRVL, INTC and GMCR.

Three NDX stocks AAPL, DELL and MCHP moved below their 30 DMA while FAST and XLNX moved above leaving 74 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA.

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 49
IBM, ARUN, DECK, FFIV, ICE, INFA, SNDK, CSTR, F, NDAQ, NKE, ANF, COH, ENTR, NVDA, UNP, CRM, DHR, DOW, SMH, SWK, TIF, TPX, UAL, V, VMW, C, JNPR, NGLS, RCL, ZAGG, CAT, DLR, HLF, LNKD, SWKS, SWN, NTES, WLT, RVBD, SLB, UCO, AKS, FAS, GLW, GS, STI, TBT, ZION
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
A, BAC, CIEN, URE
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
CRUS, ESI, FWLT
Staying Below 30 DMA
CMG, GES, LVS, CROX, CREE, HAL, HUM, POT, SINA, WDC, TLT, FAZ, GMCR, CHL, IL, JDSU, SLW, DE, ATI, CF, KKD, MOS, CDE, CLF, MCP, PCX, SOHU, TSL, BAC, VECO, LDK, FCX, ANR, X

Ten Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Reverse to Mixed Open...ALXN, RVBD Gap Up...CRUS, EBAY, LRCX, WDC, WYNN Gap Down...

BMO – ES -0.50 and NQ -4.50 futures are lower about 7 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a mixed open…volume is moderate for pre-market with more stocks quoting up than down…Financial stocks, XLF is down 1 cent on 83,400 shares in pre-market at this time…

TLT is down 75 cents and the Euro is up 10 pips in overnight trading …

NDX leaders AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM are quoting higherBIDU is lower…

After earnings
Gap Down: CRUS, EBAY, LRCX, WDC and WYNN
Gap Up: ALXN, RVBD

Oct 17 – 21 Earnings Highlights of Interest:
Monday – C, HAL, HAS, IBM, SWK, STLD, VMW, WFC
Tuesday – AAPL, BAC, CHKP, CREE, CSX, INTC, ISRG, JNJ, JNPR, LLTC, STT
Wednesday – AXP, AMR, APOL, CRUS, EBAY, FCX, LRCX, RVBD, TRV, UAL, UTX, WDC, WYNN, XLNX
Thursday – ALXN, ALTR, T, CY, FLEX, INFA, ESI, KELY, MXIM, MSFT, PCX, SNDK, ST, TPX
Friday – MCD, SLB, STI, VZ

Dave’s Insight for Thursday: slightly higher Euro…weaker bonds…Financials flat…setting up a flat open …With the SPX still in the 6 day 1,200 to 1,225 trading range, watch for a signs of a potential breakout of either side of the range … Follow your entry signals and take trades according to your rules…Watch XLF, TNX, volume and breadth as key factors in any SPX move…move stops on profitable trades…Trade Gaps that meet your rules

SPX
Resistance: 1,216, 1,230, 1,249
Support: 1,205, 1,177, 1,160

Quoting DownWYNN, BIDU, CRUS, WDC, FAZ, TLT, SINA, NVDA, LRCX, EBAY, CTSH, KLAC, MRVL

Quoting UpALXN, PCLN, RVBD, ESI, WLT, FFIV, MCP, HLF, CRM, IBM, CLF, CMG, POT, DE, RCL, CAT, MOS, SLB, ARUN, DECK, V, GMCR, PCX, C, HAL, JNPR, TBT, SWN, FAS, GS, FCX, GOOG, AAPL, HSIC, NFLX, AMZN, ISRG, VOD, DLTR, CERN, QCOM, JOYG