Monday, August 31, 2009

SPX Moves Down, Bounces at Support as INTC Rises...

DJIA - 47.92, -0.50% SP500 - 8.31, -0.81% NASDAQ Comp. - 19.71, -0.97% Russell 2000 - 7.79, -1.34% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 802 768 Declining 2,209 1,964 Oil $69.96 -2.78 Gold $951.70 -$5.30 SOX 306.18 -5.00 VIX 26.01 +1.25 The VIX moved UP and did confirm the move DOWN in the SPX on Monday. The SOX confirmed the move down in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLP +0.20%...XLV -0.17%...XLF -0.34% Weakest Sectors: XLE -1.94%...XLY -1.69%...XLB -1.32% One sector moved higher on Monday. Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Financials were stronger than the SPX -0.81%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.34%: BK, CME, SCHW, TRV, JPM, USB, WFC, CB, GS, ALL, ICE, MMC, NTRS, AFL and KEY. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -1.28%: INTC, HPQ, VZ, MSFT, IBM, MA, ADP, T, DELL, GOOG, AMAT, SYMC, ADBE, AAPL and ORCL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart target Key support levels: 1,017 = Friday’s S1 level 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 992 - 996 = recent support low 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance Perhaps the biggest news of the day as the SPX fell to a support low of 1,014, the area of the August 21 S1 level, before bouncing to close at 1,020.62 was INTC. Why INTC? Because INTC gapped higher on Friday as they raised Q3 expectations. INTC gapped 73 cents on Friday and retraced only 29 cents of that gap at Monday’s low before rising and closing 7 cents higher. This shows us that institutions consider Friday’s news important as they continued to buy the stock on Monday, a down market day. INTC is a bell weather company as the largest semiconductor company in the world. When institutions are buying INTC they are expecting the market and the economy to get better. At $20 plus per share they are paying the highest price since early last September. INTC is a component in the DJIA, SP 500 and the NDX 100. The August 21 S1 level at 1,017 and S2 level at 1,009 still remain the important short term support levels and Friday’s 1,039 high as resistance. DJIA volume slipped 4 million shares to 201 million shares on Monday. Realize that 62 million shares traded in the last 2 ½ half hours of trading as the index rose and 32 million shares traded in the final 30 minutes as the DJIA rose 29 points. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up and the six day trend is neutral as the index pulled back to the August 21 S1 level before rebounding. The SPX continues to look like a horizontal bull flag. Today’s selling occurred during the first 30 minutes of trading, moved sideways for most of the day and rose during the last hour indicating there are serious buyers in the 1,017 support area. Today reminded me of August 17 where the SPX fell 30 points during the first 15 minutes of trading and then held support at 980 before rising 1,027 that Friday, August 21. Look for support bounce opportunities. We looked at BDK and WHR in tonight’s Advanced Technical webcast. Stay with trades that continue to move in the direction of the trend. 1,015 to 1,025 is still the key trading level. As always follow your rules. Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: BDK, JEC, WLT, JCG, JCI, WYNN, AGCO, SPG, JOYG, X, DOW Breakout in Progress: WHR, AXP, BAC, HOLX, TXN, MRVL, INTC, XLNX Breakout Setup: GRMN, FWLT, FLS, ZION Breakout Setups that pulled back on Monday: DE, MA, CAT, STT, DD, AGU Key stocks JPM, PG and TRV were strong on Monday. AAPL -1.84 QCOM -0.80 GOOG -3.08 BIDU -9.47 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included GRMN, CEPH, HSIC, RYAAY, BIIB, INTC, GENZ, AMGN, VRTX, HOLX, ILMN, MSFT, FLIR, GILD and NIHD. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, PSYS, MHS, AMED, AMX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, FUQI, JOSB, BAP, CAM, EBAY, FAS, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, UYG, WRC, ESI, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, RBN, FLS, VAR, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, JEC, BIIB, GES, HDB, MON, ESRX, JW.A, BDX, DLTR, NTLS, MCD, MYGN, ICE, NIHD, RCI Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 APEI, GME, K Moving Below 30 DMA = 7 CPLA, GXDX, MUR, ORCL, PWR, STRA, TRLG Staying Below 30 DMA AFAM, DECK, GPRO, JOYG, SLGN, ATW, BIDU, HLF, MOS, NFLX, RIMM, SWN, CAN, VPRT, CHL, DLB, JCOM, SPWRA, AMZN, GMCR, PPD, ALGT, GILD, FSLR, SYNA, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Lower Open...

2:15 pm ET - The SPX continues to hold right at the 1,017 S1 support level...DJIA volume is a light 86 million shares with less than two hours to close...key stocks AAPL, GOOG, MSFT and BIDU are also trading lighter volumes today...the market is sitting at support...the next support level is 1,007 if the S1 breaks...follow your rules 10:55 am ET - SPY opened at 102.37 fell to a low of 101.79 and has bounced to 102.35 near its open at this time...the ES after falling overnight reached a low of 1,013.25 around 9:52 am ET and has bounced to 1,018.25...the SPX slipped below the Aug. 21 S1 level of 1,017 to reach 1,014.62 below last Thursday's low of 1,016.20 and is currently at 1,018.52...the VIX is up 1.77 to 26.53...most stocks are lower but MSFT is +16 cents...IP +19 cents...Financial stocks which opened lower are up from their lows with many stocks showing white candles wth leading stocks JPM +45 cents...WFC +17 cents... also now up for the morning... BMO – ES -6 and NQ -12 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. GOOG -3.75, AAPL -1.68 and BIDU -6.61 are also lower in pre-market trading. Based on the futures pre-market levels it looks like the ES, SPX and SPY will start near the August 21 S1 level which is a key short term support level near the low last Thursday which is the lowest level of the past week. Will this lead to a break of short term support or be the level the market will bounce from as it did last week. Be prepared for either move. Trade with the trend of the stocks you are trading. All sectors are either flat or quoting lower in pre-market. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – WLT – WHR – AXP – JOYG – PCLN – BDK – BAC – FAS - ZION - AGU - AMX - FWLT - AAPL – X – FUQI – PWRD – FCX - DOW – CAM – MHS – DE – TGT – PCP – ARO – ANF – JOSB – GES –

Friday, August 28, 2009

Semiconductor Stocks Lead Nasdaq Higher...

Another range bound day, the fifth this week...Gap up on good news from DELL, MRVL and INTC and fade to the low and then rally to the middle of the range...that was Friday in a nutshell...I'll be back with complete details and a look into next week... DJIA - 36.43, -0.38% SP500 - 2.05, -0.20% NASDAQ Comp. + 1.04, +0.05% Russell 2000 - 3.91, -0.67% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,514 956 Declining 1,494 1,750 Oil $72.74 +$0.25 Gold $957.00 +$11.50 SOX 311.76 +7.42 VIX 24.76 +0.08 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. For the fifth day in a row the SPX and VIX were near unchanged. The SOX confirmed the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLB +0.63%...XLK +0.35%...XLF +0.14% Weakest Sectors: XLV -0.73%...XLI -0.55%...XLP -0.40% Four of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Materials, Technology, Financials and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX -0.20%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +0.14%: ZION, C, CME, ICE, PRU, KEY, PNC, SPG, AOC, IVZ, RF, TRV, AXP, USB, CB, BAC, TROW, ALL, MMC and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.35%: INTC, TXN, DELL, EMC, CSCO and AAPL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart target Key support levels: 1,017 = Friday’s S1 level 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 992 - 996 = recent support low 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance Semiconductors ruled the day on Friday as DELL earnings beat estimates, MRVL earnings beat estimates also on Thursday and INTC raised Q3 expectations. Semiconductor related stocks like MRVL, INTC, BRCM, MXIM, XLNX, ALTR and MCHP were Nasdaq leaders. The SOX gained 2.44% and broke out of horizontal resistance while make a new high close. The only disappointment is the SOX pulled back from 316 to close at 311. This is its highest level since September 29, 2008 meaning the SOX is continuing to make higher highs and higher lows in its 9 month up trend. As you can see in the chart the SOX can make a good pull back while keeping its multi-month trend going higher. (click image to enlarge) You can see the price and volume increase in key semi stocks and etf INTC, MRVL, SMH and XLNX. (click image to enlarge) The SPX was range bound all week long between 1,017 and 1,039 and produced a weekly rang of 23.27 points. This looks very much like the first week of June and the first week of August. Many are expecting trading to be similar next week ahead of the Labor Day weekend. One interesting aspect this past week was the daily closing price on the SPX; they were 1,025, 1,028, 1,028, 1,030 and 1,028. These amazingly tight closing prices raise the question, Is 1,028 support or resistance? As technical traders we must be prepared for either outcome, but this looks very much like a horizontal bull flag. (click image to enlarge) The August 21 S1 level at 1,017 and S2 level at 1,009 still remain the important short term support levels and the 1,035 area as resistance. DJIA volume rose 41 million shares to 205 million shares on Friday. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up and the five day trend is neutral. The SPX is showing five spinning tops in a row all of which are staying above the August 21 S1 level and continues to look like a horizontal bull flag. Even though the SPX moved lower from its highest intra-day high this year on Friday, the NYSE advancing and declining issues were fairly balanced continuing to indicate that this is not yet an aggressive sell off. Stay with trades that continue to move in the direction of the trend. 1,025 is still the key trading level. As always follow your rules. Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: BDK, JEC, WLT, JCI, WYNN, AGCO, SPG, JOYG, X, DOW Breakout in Progress: WHR, AXP, BAC, JCG, HOLX, TXN, MRVL, INTC, XLNX Breakout Setup: GRMN, FWLT, FLS, AGU, DD, ZION Breakout Setups that pulled back on Friday: DE, MA, CAT, STT Key stocks AA, AXP, DD, INTC and TRV were strong on Friday. AAPL +0.60 QCOM -0.03 GOOG -1.31 BIDU -0.57 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included NVDA, MRVL, NIHD,INTC, STLD, STX, BRCM, MXIM, XLNX, ALTR, EXPE, LRCX, DELL VRSN, MCHP, LOGI, NTAP, and FWLT . Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, PSYS, MHS, AMED, AMX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, FUQI, JOSB, BAP, CAM, EBAY, FAS, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, UYG, WRC, ESI, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, RBN, FLS, VAR, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, JEC, BIIB, GES, HDB, ORCL, STRA, MON, MUR, ESRX, GXDX, JW.A, BDX, DLTR, NTLS, MCD, TRLG, MYGN Moving Above 30 DMA = 4 ICE, PWR, NIHD, RCI Moving Below 30 DMA = 6 AFAM, APEI, DECK, GPRO, JOYG, SLGN Staying Below 30 DMA ATW, BIDU, K, HLF, MOS, NFLX, RIMM, SWN, CAN, VPRT, CHL, DLB, GME, JCOM, SPWRA, AMZN, GMCR, PPD, ALGT, GILD, FSLR, SYNA, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

10:02 am ET - Consisten with the horizontal bull flag early gains fade as SPX touches a new high at 1,039.47 and pull back to even for the day...you should note however that during the first 30 minutes of trading the SPX has made a higher low and higher high within the flag...we'll watch a trading progresses to see if buyers step back in at support with another move to the upside...early strong stocks include ZION, FUQI, FCX, PCLN, DELL, INTC, MSFT... BMO – ES +8 and NQ +20 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. GOOG +4, AAPL +2 and BIDU +2 are also higher in pre-market trading. Through Thursday the SPX appears to be forming a horizontal bull flag. On Thursday the SPX bounced off of last Friday’s S1 level of 1,017 and rose to its highest close at 1,030. If the trend of pre-market trading extends into the cash session, the SPX may break the top side of its horizontal flag and move towards October’s horizontal resistance of 1,044. Continue to stay with the trend… Technology XLK, Materials XLB and Financials XLF are the sector leaders in pre-market trading… Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – JOYG – PCLN – BDK – BAC – FAS - ZION - AGU - AMX - BIDU - FWLT - GOOG – ADBE – AAPL – X – FUQI – PWRD – FCX - DOW – CAM – MHS – NFLX – DE – TGT – PCP – ARO – ANF – JOSB – GES – DSW –

Thursday, August 27, 2009

SPX Makes New High Close at 1,030.98...

DJIA + 37.11, +0.39% SP500 + 2.86, +0.28% NASDAQ Comp. + 3.30, +0.16% Russell 2000 - 0.25, -0.04% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,616 1,290 Declining 1,376 1,383 Oil $72.49 +$1.06 Gold $945.50 +$1.20 SOX 303.76 +0.77 VIX 24.68 -0.27 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday. For the fourth day in a row the SPX and VIX were near unchanged. The SOX confirmed the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLF +1.03%...XLI +0.91%...XLB +0.70% Weakest Sectors: XLE -0.31%...XLV -0.03%...XLU +0.00% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Financials, Industrials and Materials were stronger than the SPX +0.28%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +1.03: C, KEY, AXP, IVZ, BK, RF, MS and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.20%: DELL, EMC, AAPL, HPQ, EBAY MSFT, SYMC, TXN and INTC. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart target Key support levels: 1,017 = Friday’s S1 level 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 992 - 996 = recent support low 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX opened and moved lower to trade at Friday’s S1 level at 1,016. The range expanded to 17 points as the SPX rallied to reach 1,033.33 before closing at 1,030.98, its highest daily close this year. Several stocks like BA, PCP and GES had big move days from the open. Continue to watch Friday’s S1 level at 1,017 and S2 level at 1,009 as important short term support levels and the 1,035 area as resistance. DJIA volume rose 10 million shares to 164 million shares on Thursday. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up and the SPX reached a new high close. The SPX is showing four spinning tops in a row all of which are staying above Friday’s S1 level and continues to look like a horizontal bull flag. Advancing and declining issues were fairly balanced today, continuing to indicate that this is not an aggressive sell off yet. Short term traders saw another intra-day break below the low of the high day on Thursday, and again rallied and failed to close below the low. Stay with trades that continue to move in the direction of the trend. 1,025 is still the key trading level. As always follow your rules. Many of our Flag and Breakout Setups formed hammers or spinning top patterns on Thursday. Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: BDK, JEC, WLT, JCI, WYNN, GRMN, AGCO, SPG, JOYG, X, DOW Breakout in Progress: AXP, BAC, JCG, HOLX Breakout Setup: WHR Breakout Setups that pulled back on Wednesday: DE, FWLT, FLS, AGU, MA, DD, CAT, FLS, STT, ZION AAPL +2.04 QCOM -0.28 GOOG -1.94 BIDU -3.62 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included STX, DELL, NTAP, CMCSA, COST, JNPR, GENZ, LOGI, VRTX, MRVL, HOLX, STLD, INFY, APOL, CTSH, GRMN, LLTC, AAPL, FLIR, CTSX and SIAL. Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, PSYS, MHS, AMED, AMX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, FUQI, JOSB, BAP, CAM, EBAY, FAS, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, UYG, WRC, ESI, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, RBN, FLS, VAR, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, JEC, BIIB, GES, HDB, ORCL, STRA, MON, MUR, ESRX, GPRO, GXDX, JW.A, BDX, DLTR, SLGN, NTLS, MCD, TRLG, APEI, MYGN Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 AFAM, DECK Moving Below 30 DMA = 6 ATW, BIDU, ICE, K, PWR, NIHD Staying Below 30 DMA HLF, MOS, NFLX, RIMM SWN, CAN, RCI, VPRT, CHL, DLB, GME, JCOM, SPWRA, AMZN, GMCR, PPD, ALGT, GILD, FSLR, SYNA, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Flat Open...

BMO – ES +0.50 and NQ +1.75 futures are near even in pre-market pointing to a flat. GOOG -0.40, AAPL +0.60 and BIDU -0.22 are also near even in pre-market trading. Through Wednesday the SPX appears to be forming a horizontal bull flag. So far this week the SPX price action is staying above Friday’s S1 level of 1,017. Continue to stay with the trend and watch for your exit signal if a break below support occurs…
Airline stocks did well on Wednesday and Retail stocks which for the most part are in the middle of their earnings season are showing some good gains…JOSB gained nicely yesterday and reports earnings on Monday.
Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – JOYG – PCLN – BDK – BAC – FAS - ZION - AGU - AMX - BIDU - FWLT - GOOG – ADBE – AAPL – X – FUQI – PWRD – FCX - DOW – CAM – MHS – NFLX – DE – TGT – PCP – ARO – ANF – JOSB – GES – DSW –

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

SPX Closes at 1,028...

DJIA + 4.23, +0.04% SP500 + 0.12, +0.01% NASDAQ Comp. + 0.20, +0.01% Russell 2000 + 0.80, +0.14% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,437 1,411 Declining 1,562 1,279 Oil $71.43 -$0.62 Gold $944.30 -$0.20 SOX 302.99 +2.46 VIX 24.95 +0.03 The VIX moved up and did NOT confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. Once again the SPX and VIX were near unchanged. The SOX confirmed the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLY +0.57%...XLE +0.46%...XLK +0.45% Weakest Sectors: XLI -1.18%...XLB -0.37%...XLF -0.27% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Technology, Consumer Staples and Healthcare were stronger than the SPX +0.01%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.37%: CME, SPG, WFC, AXP, USB, TRV, GS, ALL, CB, BAC, RF, PNC and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.45%: EMC, INTC, QCOM, T, DELL, VZ, IBM and AMAT. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart target Key support levels: 1,017 = Friday’s S1 level 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 992 - 996 = recent support low 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX traded in an 11 point range on Wednesday its narrowest range this week. The weekly range through Wednesday is a meager 16 points. The SPX started to the downside found support around 1,022 and then rallied closing almost unchanged at 1,028.12. Stocks seem to be grinding this week much like they did the first two weeks of June and the first two weeks of August. The SPX is trading in a narrow range and lower volume as we move to the end of summer. Continue to watch Friday’s S1 level at 1,017 and S2 level at 1,009 as important short term support levels. DJIA volume fell another 19 million shares to 154 million shares on Wednesday. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up while the short term trend has turned neutral. The SPX is showing three spinning tops in a row all of which are staying above Friday’s S1 level forming what appears to be a horizontal bull flag. Advancing and declining issues are balanced this week further indicating this is not an aggressive sell off yet. Short term traders saw an intra-day break below the low of the high day on Wednesday, but not a close below. Stay with trades that continue to move in the direction of the trend. 1,025 is still the key trading level. As always follow your rules. The majority of our Flag and Breakout Setups paused or pulled back, a few continued to progress. Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: JCI, WYNN, GRMN, AGCO, SPG, CERN Flag Patterns in Progress that pulled back on Wednesday: JOYG, X, DOW Breakout Setup: AGU, MA, DD, CAT, AXP, BAC, FLS, JCG, HOLX, STT, ZION Breakout Setups that pulled back on Wednesday: DE, FWLT, FLS Breakouts that pulled back on Wednesday: BDK, JEC, WHR, WLT Key stocks AXP, CVX, HD, INTC, KO, MCD, MRK, T, TRV and XOM were strong on Wednesday. AAPL -1.99 QCOM +0.71 GOOG -3.37 – We were stopped out at 467.90 today = a gain of 36.60 or +8.5% BIDU -4.10 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included GRMN, INFY, LRCX, LOGI, MRVL, VRSN, BBBY, KLAC, INTC, QCOM, NTAP, AMGN, AKAM, ERTS, CELG, COST, ALTR, CTXS and APOL. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, PSYS, MHS, AMED, AMX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, FUQI, JOSB, BAP, CAM, EBAY, FAS, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, UYG, WRC, ESI, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, RBN, FLS, VAR, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, JEC, BIIB, ATW, GES, HDB, ORCL, STRA, MON, MUR, BIDU, ESRX, GPRO, GXDX, ICE, JW.A, BDX, DLTR, K, PWR, SLGN, NTLS, MCD, TRLG Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 APEI, MYGN Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 AFAM, HLF, MOS, NFLX, RIMM Staying Below 30 DMA SWN, CAN, DECK, RCI, VPRT, CHL, DLB, GME, JCOM, SPWRA, AMZN, GMCR, PPD, ALGT, GILD, FSLR, SYNA, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Flat to Slightly Lower Open...

BMO – ES -1 and NQ +0.50 futures are slightly lower in pre-market pointing to a flat to slightly lower open.
Wednesday may break the low of the high day on some charts…so if this is a signal you use, you’ll want to watch closely today. Also if price action stays above Friday’s S1 level 1,017 on the SPX, realize this is price fluctuation. Stay tuned for another interesting trading day…
Tuesday was a breakout on the XAL, so there might be some interest in airline stocks like ALK, AMR, UAUA and LCC...
Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – JOYG – PCLN – BDK – BAC – FAS - ZION - AGU - AMZN - AKAM - AMX - BIDU - FWLT - CAT - GOOG – ADBE – AAPL – X – FUQI – PWRD – FCX - DOW – CAM – MHS – NFLX – DE – TGT – PCP – ARO –

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

SPX Makes New High Close...

DJIA + 30.01, +0.32% SP500 + 2.43, +0.24% NASDAQ Comp. + 6.25, +0.31% Russell 2000 + 2.98, +0.51% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,830 1,458 Declining 1,185 1,244 Oil $72.05 -$2.32 Gold $944.50 +$2.20 SOX 300.12 +1.58 VIX 24.92 -0.22 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Tuesday. By the close on Tuesday the SPX and VIX were near unchanged. The SOX confirmed the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLF +1.26%...XLY +1.03%...XLI +0.55% Weakest Sectors: XLE -1.53%...XLU -0.64%...XLB -0.50% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Technology were stronger than the SPX +0.24%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +1.26%: PRU, BAC, RF, PNC, IVZ, MS, STT, GS, SPG, NTRS, AFL, JPM, SCHW and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.25%: MA, INTC, GLW, TXN, T, GOOG, YHOO, EMC and EBAY. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart target Key support levels: 1,017 = Friday’s S1 level 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 992 - 996 = recent support low in Progress 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX along with the other broad indices rose to new highs for the third straight day and then pulled back again and finished with a new high close. The SPX hit 1,037.75 before closing at 1,028.00, just above its 1,025 price target. As I stated earlier in my webcast, even though the SPX is above 1,025 it is not far enough above to call the 1,025 level support. In other words, even though the SPX is trading intra-day above resistance it is still closing in the zone or area of resistance. Continue to watch Monday’s S1 level at 1,017 and S2 level at 1,009 as important short term support levels. DJIA volume was a moderate 173 million shares on Tuesday. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up. Tuesday’s trading pattern was very similar to Monday, rising to new highs in the morning and pulling back in the afternoon to close with slight gains for the day. Volume was again moderate indicating profit taking rather than heavy selling exiting the trend. Short term traders are still on Yellow Alert and may have an exit on Wednesday if the chart being traded breaks the low of the high day which was Tuesday for many stocks and the broad indices. Stay with trades that continue to move in the direction of the trend. Intermediate term traders likely will sit tight. As always follow your rules. The majority of our Flag and Breakout Setups continued to progress. A few pulled back modestly and they are listed separately. Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: JCI, WYNN, JOYG, GRMN, AGCO, SPG, CERN Flag Patterns in Progress that pulled back on Tuesday: X, DOW Breakout Setup in Progress: DE, AGU, MA, DD, CAT, BDK, FWLT, AXP, BAC, FLS, JCG, HOLX, STT, ZION Breakouts that pulled back on Tuesday: JEC, WHR, WLT Key stocks BA, BAC, HD, INTC, JPM, MCD, MRK, and TRV were strong on Tuesday. AAPL +0.34 QCOM -0.42 GOOG +2.64 – Moved our stop to 468, the T2 price of the virtual trade entered at 431.30 BIDU +2.82 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included WCRX, WYNN, BBBY, GENZ, ORLY, FSLR, LINTA, COST, URBN, EXPE, SHLD, CTSH, ROST, OLX, GRMN, INTC, APOL, INFY, SBUX, ESRX, FWLT, BIDU, JOYG and GOOG. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, PSYS, MHS, AMED, AMX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, FUQI, JOSB, BAP, CAM, EBAY, FAS, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, RBN, AFAM, FLS, VAR, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, JEC, HLF, BIIB, ATW, GES, HDB, ORCL, STRA, MON, MUR, BIDU, ESRX, GPRO, GXDX, ICE, JW.A, RIMM, BDX, DLTR, K, PWR, SLGN, NTLS
(click image to enlarge)
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 NFLX, MCD, TRLG Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 APEI, SWN, ACN Staying Below 30 DMA DECK, RCI, VPRT, CHL, DLB, GME, JCOM, SPWRA, AMZN, GMCR, PPD, MYGN, ALGT, GILD, FSLR, SYNA, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

10:05 am ET - The SPX has touched a new high in early trading at 1,037.75...we'll see if it can hold higher levels unlike yesterday...BDK, FUQI, JOYG and BAC are strong during the first 35 minutes...XLY and XLF are the leading sectors... BMO – ES +5 and NQ +5 futures are higher in pre-market pointing to a higher open. GOOG +0.76, AAPL +1 and BIDU +2 are also higher in pre-market trading. Industrials XLI and Financials XLF seem to be the early leaders in pre-market trading. If pre-market is any indication of what the cash open will be like, it appears that buyers are using the 1,025 level as support and going to try and move stocks higher towards the 1,044 October resistance level once again. This should be another interesting trading day… Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – JOYG – FCX - DOW – PCLN – FAS - ZION - AGU - DD - AMZN - AKAM - AMX - BIDU - FWLT - CAT - GOOG – ADBE – AAPL – X – FUQI – PWRD – BDK – BAC – BRCM – VPRT – CAM – MHS – NFLX – DE – TGT – PCP –

Monday, August 24, 2009

SPX Hits New High and Pulls Back Near Unchanged...

DJIA + 3.32, +0.03% SP500 - 0.56, -0.05% NASDAQ Comp. - 2.92, -0.14% Russell 2000 - 1.27, -0.22% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,551 1,254 Declining 1,475 1,479 Oil $74.37 +$0.48 Oct. contract Gold $942.30 -$10.90 SOX 298.95 -2.35 VIX 25.14 +0.13 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Monday. Again consider the SPX and VIX unchanged for practical purposes. The SOX confirmed the move down in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLE +1.28%...XLV +0.70%...XLI +0.20% Weakest Sectors: XLB -0.79%...XLF -0.77%...XLY -0.72% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Energy, Healthcare, Industrials, Utilities and Consumer Staples were stronger than the SPX -0.05%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.77%: C, AOC, BK, ALL, MS, MET, STT, TRV, IVZ, AXP, GS, BAC and CB. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.30%: DELL, YHOO, ORCL, MSFT, GOOG, EBAY, T, ADP, QCOM, VZ, HPQ and AAPL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart target Key support levels: 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 992 - 996 = recent support low 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX along with the other broad indices rose to new highs today and then pulled back finishing near unchanged. The SPX hit 1,035.82 before closing at 1,025.57. Watch Monday’s S1 level at 1,017 and S2 level at 1,009 as important short term support levels. After a 55 point move up a 10 point correction is relatively modest and certainly healthy. DJIA volume was a moderate 190 million shares on Monday. Tuesday is a Yellow Alert day for short term traders. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up. Monday rose making a higher high on many charts and then pulled back on moderate August volume indicating profit taking on the run up of the last week rather than wholesale selling giving up on the trend. Short term traders may have an exit on the break of the low of the high day which was Monday for many stocks and the broad indices. Intermediate term traders likely will sit tight. As always follow your rules. Most of the Flag and Breakout Setups paused or pulled back today and are still inside their respective pattern. Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: JCI, WYNN, JOYG, GRMN, AGCO, X, SPG, DOW, CERN Breakout Setup: DE, AGU, MA, DD, CAT, BDK, FWLT, AXP, BAC, FLS, JCG, JEC, HOLX, STT, WHR, WLT, ZION Key stocks BA, CVX, MSFT, UTX and XOM were strong on Monday. AAPL -0.16 QCOM +0.12 GOOG +3.49 BIDU +0.00 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included FSLR, DELL, ESRX, YHOO, TEVA, ORCL, HOLX, MSFT, CTSH, STLD, PDCO, GOOG, EBAY, DTV, HSIC and JOYG. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, AMED, AMX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, FUQI, JOSB, BAP, CAM, EBAY, FAS, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, RBN, AFAM, FLS, VAR, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, JEC, HLF, BIIB, VPRT, ATW, GES, HDB, ORCL, STRA, MON, APEI, MUR, BIDU, ESRX, GPRO, GXDX, ICE, JW.A, RIMM, BDX, DLTR, K, PWR, SLGN, SWN Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 NTLS Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 DECK, NFLX, RCI, VPRT, MCD, TRLG Staying Below 30 DMA CHL, DLB, GME, JCOM, SPWRA, AMZN, GMCR, PPD, MYGN, ALGT, GILD, FSLR, SYNA, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

1:15 pm ET - Profit taking is driving prices back for a test of the breakout...we'll see if it holds...SPX at 1,026... 11:50 am ET - The SPX is pulling back slightly near mid-day after hitting 1,035.82...now at 1,032.80...FUQI, BAC, FCX, CAT, BDK, JOYG, X and PCP enjoying a very positive morning so far... 10:15 am ET - The SPX is holding its breakout of 1,025 for the first 45 minutes of trading, reaching 1,034...just 10 points away from October resistance ...still very early in the day of course...if you held your longs over the weekend you're probably making money this morning...Financials XLB are leading this morning with Energy XLE and Materials XLB following...all nine sectors are actually higher at this moment...the BAC, ZION and BDK positions continue to do well this morning...CAT and FCX are breaking out...JOYG and CAM continuing to rise after breaking out...X, JEC and FLR are continuing with their flag support bounces... BMO – ES +4 and NQ +4 futures are higher in pre-market pointing to a higher open. GOOG +3, AAPL +1 and BIDU +2 are also higher in pre-market trading. Financials XLF and Healthcare XLV seem to be the early leaders in pre-market trading. With futures are pushing above the 1,025 price target we’ll get to see if this is a breakout with a move to the 1,044 October resistance level or if this just a little push before a pull back below 1,025. The fact that financials are strong and leading Nasdaq stocks are up at least gives this early push a fighting chance. It's should make for another exciting trading day either way. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – JOYG – FCX - DOW – PCLN – FAS - ZION - AGU - DD - AMZN - AKAM - AMX - BIDU - FWLT - CAT - GOOG – ADBE – AAPL – X – FUQI – PWRD – BDK – BAC – BRCM – VPRT – CAM – MHS – NFLX – DE – TGT –

Friday, August 21, 2009

SPX Breaks 1,018 High with a New High Close at 1,026...

The SPX makes a new close high at 1,026.13 as it reaches our price target from the July break out of 950 Resistance. The NDX and NDX 100 stocks AAPL, GOOG, ADP, BIIB, CA, CHRW, CTAS, HOLX, LBTYA, LOGI, NVDA, PAYX, PCAR, PDCO, ROST, SBUX, STX and XLNX all made a new high close on Friday. DJIA + 155.91, +1.67% SP500 + 18.76, +1.86% NASDAQ Comp. + 31.68, +1.59% Russell 2000 + 12.83, +2.26% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,467 1,999 Declining 585 715 Oil $73.89 +$0.98 Oct. contract Gold $953.20 +$12.90 SOX 301.30 +4.89 VIX 25.01 -0.08 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Friday. The SOX confirmed the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLE +2.83%...XLB +2.64%...XLI +2.60% Weakest Sectors: XLV +1.02%...XLP +1.10%...XLK +1.46% All nine sectors moved higher for the second day in a row on Friday. Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Utilities were stronger than the SPX +1.86%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +1.96%: RF, C, KEY, AFL, MET, PRU, ZION, ALL, JPM, PNC, TROW, SCHW, IVZ and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.46%: EBAY, MSFT, ADP, ADBE, VZ, MA, AMAT, HPQ, T, TXN and AAPL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart target Key support levels: 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 992 - 996 = recent support low 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance
Let’s Get This Straight… The SPX is in an up trend. The Nasdaq, DJIA and RUT are also in up trends. I prefer the term up trend to bull market in part because of the psychological trap that many traders fall into in defending their opinion of whether a given market is a bull or bear market. I have labeled the Nasdaq market in an intermediate term up trend, or bull market if you wish, since it broke through its October resistance at the 1,950 level. This week the Nasdaq returned to 1,950 and bounced to a new high at 2,020.90 in just three days, confirming its up trend or bull market.
(click image to enlarge)
That is support. When price comes to an old resistance (new support) level and bounces with strength that is strong support. Buyers appear and price moves fast. That is also exactly what takes place in an up trend or bull market. In one sense the SPX, DJIA and RUT have all be in an up trend since March and can be labeled an intermediate term up trend. I have however continued to list their intermediate term trend as Neutral. Why? The SPX, DJIA and RUT have been labeled Neutral because they have continued to trade below their October resistance level. My reasoning is this; if an index cannot overcome the selling level that was the rebound high resistance after the index went tumbling down, then buying may not be any stronger than the buying in October before the index fell to lower lows. Here’s the good news. As an index rises above the October resistance it is showing stronger buying than existed in October and that is a strong indication that the longer intermediate term trend is up. Or if you prefer you can call it a bull market. Just because it is an up trend or bull market doesn’t mean there won’t be corrections or congestion areas and that sellers won’t continue to appear at resistance. Sellers will be there and stocks will pull back and as long as they pull back to higher lows and bounce to higher highs the up trend will continue. The RUT is next closing on Friday just 3 points below its October higher. If it closes above 584.70 and stays above that level it will be in a longer intermediate term up trend or bull market.
(click image to enlarge)
The SPX is 18 points below its October resistance high of 1,044.31. Closing and staying above this level will be a longer intermediate term up trend in the SPX.
(click image to enlarge)
The DJIA is 289 points below its October resistance high of 9,794.37.
(click image to enlarge)
DJIA volume surged 94% from 151 million shares on Thursday to 293 million on Friday and traded at 150% of 20 day average volume. Friday’s breakout was accompanied by higher volume adding validity to the breakout. While volume increases were not across the board on the Nasdaq some larger stocks saw volume increases like MSFT +77%, EBAY +73%, ORCL +38% GOOG which had a volume surge on Thursday was +56% above Wednesday’s volume.
(click image to enlarge)
So let’s get this straight…there is absolutely no need to be confused. What you are looking at in these charts is an up trend with a strong support bounce. Many stocks continued their bull flag support bounces and moved towards T1 and a Breakout Setup. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up. The strong support bounce off of 980 blew right through the 1,007 to 1,018 resistance level on Friday. Since this is the first time this year the SPX is at the 1,026 level we don’t know if institutions will continue buying on Monday or step back to see how much selling is here. On Monday be prepared for a continuation move and for the potential of a flag pull back. Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: JCI, WYNN, JOYG, GRMN, AGCO, AGU, X, SPG, DE, DOW, CERN Breakout Setup: MA, DD, CAT, BDK, FWLT, AXP, BAC, FLS, JCG, JEC, HOLX, STT, WHR, WLT, ZION Key stocks BA, CAT, DD, DIS, GE, HD, JPM, MRK, MSFT, PFE and UTX were strong on Friday. AAPL +2.89 QCOM +0.20 GOOG +4.83 BIDU +5.75 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included PCAR, EXPD, CHRW, FWLT, EBAY, MSFT, JOYG, BBBY, ADP, WYNN, INFY, RIMM, ISRG, ADBE, GENZ, MICC and CERN. Our real time virtual trades since July 23 in GOOG, SPY, XLB, ZION, BAC, XLF, MA and BDK continue to perform very well. GRMN has moved back positive without hitting its stop. We closed the August SPY trades with nice gains. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, AMED, AMX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, FUQI, JOSB, BAP, CAM, EBAY, FAS, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, RBN, AFAM, FLS, VAR, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, JEC, HLF, BIIB, VPRT, ATW, GES, HDB, ORCL, STRA, MON, APEI, MUR, NFLX, BIDU, DECK, ESRX, GPRO, GXDX, ICE, JW.A, RIMM, TRLG Moving Above 30 DMA = 9 BDX, DLTR, K, PWR, RCI, SLGN, SWN, VPRT, MCD Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 CHL, DLB Staying Below 30 DMA GME, JCOM, SPWRA, AMZN, GMCR, PPD, MYGN, ALGT, GILD, FSLR, SYNA, FAZ, NTLS, Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Up...Look for Possible New Highs After the Open...

3:15 pm ET - The SPX is pushing to a new high 1,027.59...the 1,025 price target that we have been talking about since the July breakout of the 950 resistance has been reached today. While we don't expect the SPX to go straight up, the last three weeks being evidence of this bit of wisdom, the next SPX targets are 1,044 and the May 4 breakout price target of 1,075. I hope you had a profitable day trading today... 10:18 am ET - SPX hits 1,025.94...Some of you are aware of the live virtual trades we did in our AT Workshop in Chicago on July 30...XLF Sep 13 call at 57 cents...now 1.75 a gain of 1.18 or 207% and the BAC Sep 15 calls at 66 cents...now 2.75 a gain of 2.09 or 316% 10:00 am ET - SPX HITS 1,020... BMO – ES +8 and NQ +9 futures are higher in pre-market pointing to a higher open. August options expire today. GOOG +2, AAPL +87 cents and BIDU +2 are also higher in pre-market trading. With futures near their highs of the past two weeks, cash markets are likely to open near the SPX 1,018 high of two weeks ago. It looks like we’ll get to see today if sellers are exhausted at this level or not this morning. Be prepared for new highs today. See last night’s post for more on this. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – JOYG – FCX - DOW – PCLN – FAS - ZION - STT - AGU - DD - AMZN - AKAM - AMX - BIDU - FWLT - CAT - GOOG – ADBE – AAPL – ACN – X – FUQI – PWRD – BDK – BAC – BRCM – VPRT – CAM – MHS – NFLX – DE – TGT –

Thursday, August 20, 2009

SPX Rises to 1,007 Again...

DJIA + 70.89, +0.76% SP500 + 10.91, +1.09% NASDAQ Comp. + 19.98, +1.01% Russell 2000 + 7.03, +1.25% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,233 1,766 Declining 814 927 Oil $72.54 +$0.12 Gold $940.30 -$3.00 SOX 296.41 +2.99 VIX 25.09 -1.17 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday. The SOX confirmed the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLF +2.59%...XLI +1.23%...XLK +1.12% Weakest Sectors: XLB +0.20%...XLP +0.49%...XLV +0.71% All nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Financials, Industrials and Technology were stronger than the SPX +1.09%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.59%: C, ICE, STT, ZION, SPG, ;PNC, PRU, IVZ, WFC, MET and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.12%: GOOG, CSCO, QCOM, MA, AMT, EBAY, AMAT and ADBE. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 1,025 = 950 Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal Key support levels: 992 - 996 = recent support low 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX again rose and closed at 1,007.32, after touching 1,008.92. This is the November and early August resistance level from which prices fell in the futures market early Monday morning. Thursday’s rally again occurred on lighter volume typical for the end of August. DJIA volume was an average 151 million shares. Many stocks continued their bull flag support bounces and moved towards T1 and a Breakout Setup. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up. What we don’t know at this time is whether sellers that have been at the 1,007 to 1,018 resistance level are still here or whether institutions are willing to now buy aggressively at this level move the SPX to the 1,025 target. At 1,007 you must be prepared for a breakout or bounce down. Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: JCI, FLS, WYNN, JOYG, GRMN, WHR, AGCO, AGU, X, FWLT, SPG, BDK, DE, CAT, DD, DOW, CERN, MA. Breakout Setup: AXP, BAC, FLS, JCG, JEC, HOLX, STT, WHR, WLT, ZION Key stocks BA, CSCO, GE, JPM and UTX were strong on Thursday. AAPL +1.73 QCOM +1.37 GOOG +16.44 BIDU +8.47 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included PDCO, XRAY, ROST, JNPR, GOOG, EXPE, ESRX, STLD, QCOM, GENZ, RIMM, BRCM, BIDU, HSIC, HANS, MICC, AMZN, EBAY and ISRG. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, AMED, AMX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, FUQI, JOSB, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, RBN, AFAM, CHL, FLS, VAR, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, JEC, HLF, BIIB, VPRT, ATW, GES, HDB, ORCL, STRA, MON, APEI, MUR, NFLX Moving Above 30 DMA = 9 BIDU, DECK, ESRX, GPRO, GXDX, ICE, JW.A, RIMM, TRLG Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 GME Staying Below 30 DMA RCI, VPRT, DLTR, JCOM, SLGN, SPWRA, AMZN, GMCR, PPD, PWR, SWN, MYGN, ALGT, GILD, K, FSLR, SYNA, BDX, MCD, FAZ, NTLS, Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

BMO – ES +4 and NQ +5 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. August options expire tomorrow. GOOG +9 is up strong, AAPL +56 cents and BIDU +2 are also higher in pre-market trading. There were a large number of bullish engulfing patterns in our watch list last night and several are listed in our At the Open on Thursday list. Futures are pointing to a break above SPX 1,000 this morning which is significant because 998 was Monday’s open and R2 level. If this happens when the cash market opens look to 1,007 as resistance. We’ll watch for a potential break above that level. 980 is still support for the week. The trend is still up and the SPX has been trading between 1,000 and 980 so far this week. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – JOYG – bullish engulfing FCX - bullish engulfing DOW - bullish engulfing PCLN - bullish engulfing FAS - bullish engulfing ZION - bullish engulfing AGU - bullish engulfing DD - bullish engulfing AMZN - bullish engulfing AKAM - bullish engulfing AMX - bullish engulfing BIDU - bullish engulfing FWLT - bullish engulfing CAT - bullish engulfing SHLD – hammer GOOG – ADBE – AAPL – ACN – X – FUQI – PWRD – BDK – BAC – BRCM – VPRT – CAM – MHS – NFLX – DE – TGT –

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

SPX Bounces at 980 Support and Rises to Monday's R2...

DJIA + 61.22, +0.66% SP500 + 6.79, +0.69% NASDAQ Comp. + 13.32, +0.68% Russell 2000 + 5.22, +0.94% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,856 1,678 Declining 1,144 955 Oil $72.42 +$3.23 Gold $943.30 +$5.60 SOX 293.42 +1.75 VIX 26.26 +0.31 The VIX moved up and did NOT confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. The SOX confirmed the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLE +1.86%...XLV +1.40%...XLB +1.31% Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.07%...XLK +0.26%...XLI +0.29% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Energy, Healthcare, Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Utilities were stronger than the SPX +0.69%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.07%: MET, ZION, RF, WFC, TRV, MMC, ICE, PRU, SCHW, CB, AFL, USB, MS, AOC, TROW, ALL, AXP, STT, BK and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.26%: QCOM, T, CSCO, EMC, ORCL, SYMC, EBAY, IBM, TXN, VZ, AAPL, MSFT and YHOO. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 992 - 996 = recent support low 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 1,025 = 950 Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal Key support levels: 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The ES futures fell overnight on Tuesday on weakness in China, Japan and Europe and opened near Monday and Tuesday’s low. The futures and SPX began to rise after the open and rose to 999.61 around 1 pm ET before settling back and closing at 996.46 near Monday’s R2 area.
(click image to enlarge)
DJIA volume was an average 176 million shares. Many stocks continued their bull flag support bounces and we mention many of them in tonight’s post. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up, as buyers entered the market for the third day in a row at the 980 support area. The key on Thursday is to watch if buyers drive the SPX through Monday’s S2, the 1,000 area or if they let sellers push the SPX back to support. Stay with stocks that follow through on their bull flag bounces and horizontal breakouts. Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: JCG, JCI, WLT, FLS, WYNN, AXP, STT, JOYG, GRMN, WHR, AGCO, AGU, X, FWLT, SPG, ZION, BAC, BDK, DE, CAT, DD, DOW, CERN, SHLD, MA Breakout Setup: JEC, HOLX Key stocks CVX, DD, KFT, MRK, PFE and XOM were strong on Wednesday. AAPL +60 cents QCOM +57 cents GOOG -1.31 BIDU +3.38 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included VRTX, HOLX, DISH, ROST, CELG, GILD, XRAY, MRVL, EXPE, SIAL, JOYG, BIIB, TEVA, QCOM, AMZN, ISRG and BIDU. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, AMED, AMX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, FUQI, JOSB, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, RBN, AFAM, CHL, FLS, VAR, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, JEC, GME, HLF, BIIB, VPRT, RCI, ATW, GES, HDB, ORCL, RIMM, STRA, MON Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 MUR, NFLX Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 RIMM Staying Below 30 DMA VPRT, BIDU, DECK, DLTR, JCOM, SLGN, SPWRA, AMZN, GMCR, GXDX, PPD, PWR, SWN, TRLG, MYGN, ESRX, ALGT, APEI, GILD, K, FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, BDX, JW.A, MCD, FAZ, NTLS, ICE Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

BMO – ES -10 and NQ -19 futures are lower in pre-market pointing to a lower open. If cash markets open lower follow your rules for short term downside protection as US markets may follow both Asian, the Japanese Nikkei lost 0.8 percent and European stocks were down about 1%. AAPL -1, GOOG -4 and BIDU -5 are also lower in pre-market trading. Stay focused on the key 980 support level expecting a bounce but prepared for a break. Remember, so far this is still a pull back in an up trend, however you should look at Tuesday as a potential short term lower high and look at a break of the Monday/Tuesday low as a break of the low of the high day and evaluate the impact of a move to 965 for 950 on your positions. On the upside TGT (Monday) and DE (Wednesday morning) have had positive reactions to earnings. Some of the stocks in our At the Open list are in short or intermediate term down trends and can be traded to the downside. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – ADBE – AAPL – ACN – PCLN – X – FUQI – PWRD – BDK – FAS – BAC – ZION – AKAM – BRCM – EXPD – SYNA – AMZN – BIDU – ESRX – VPRT – AMX – CAM – MHS – NFLX – FWLT – DE – TGT –

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

SPX Rises...Bounces at 980 Support...

DJIA + 82.60, +0.90% SP500 + 9.94, +1.01% NASDAQ Comp. + 25.08, +1.30% Russell 2000 + 8.25, +1.50% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 339 488 Declining 2,736 2,232 Oil $69.19 +$2.44 Gold $937.70 +$3.40 SOX 291.67 +5.75 VIX 26.18 -1.71 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Tuesday. The SOX confirmed the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLF +2.05%...XLK +1.51%...XLB +1.50% Weakest Sectors: XLV -0.07%...XLP +0.17%...XLU +0.21% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Financials, Technology, Materials, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +1.01%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.05%: AXP, STT, RF, PRU, C, BK, MET, KEY, ZION, ICE, JPM, GS, BAC and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.51%: GLW, DELL, AAPL, AMT, TXN, SYMC, MSFT, HPQ, AMAT, INTC and ADBE. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 992 = last two weeks low 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 1,025 = 950 Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal Key support levels: 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX opened near Monday’s close bounced off of support as we indicated on Monday as the most probable scenario and trended higher all day closing at 989.67 less than two points below its high. The SPX rose to its support low of the past two, Monday’s R1 and its 20 DMA. If it breaks above the 992 to 996 area the next level of resistance is 1,007. Many individual stocks had strong bull flag support bounces and we mention many of them in tonight’s post. DJIA volume was an average 158 million shares. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up, as the SPX bounced up from the 980 support area and moved to Monday’s R1 and its 20 DMA. Look for the support bounce to continue but be prepared if the SPX fails to follow through and returns to the 980 support area, then watch for a break to the 965 support area. Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: JCG, JCI, CTRP, WLT, FLS, WYNN, AXP, STT, JOYG, PCLN, CAT, GRMN, JEC, WHR, AGCO, AGU, X, FWLT, SPG, ZION, BAC, BDK. Key stocks AA, BAC, CAT, HD, JPM, TRV and UTX were strong on Tuesday. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, AMED, AMX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, FUQI, JOSB, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, RBN, AFAM, CHL, FLS, VAR, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, JEC, GME, HLF, BIIB, VPRT, RCI Moving Above 30 DMA = 7 ATW, GES, HDB, ORCL, RIMM, STRA, MON Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 VPRT Staying Below 30 DMA BIDU, DECK, DLTR, JCOM, MUR, NFLX, SLGN, SPWRA, AMZN, GMCR, GXDX, PPD, PWR, SWN, TRLG, MYGN, ESRX, ALGT, APEI, GILD, K, FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, BDX, JW.A, MCD, FAZ, NTLS, ICE Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral