Wednesday, June 30, 2010

SPX Breaks 1,040...Falls to 1,030 Support...

Dave will be traveling Thursday morning and will post again Thursday after the close.


The SPX broke 1,040 support and fell to 1,030.  The VIX rose .41 to 34.54.  The two month trend is down.  Next SPX support is 1,000.  Most stocks are now trending down and stay with the trend until the chart gives an exit signal.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.


AAPL -4.64
QCOM -0.30
GOOG -9.31
BIDU +0.51
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: HOLX, FLEX, BIDU, AMZN, RYAAY, ILMN, FWLT, CEPH, TEVA, INFY, LBTYA, CHKP, XLNX, PAYX and CERN.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: CELG, MRVL, WYNN, ISRG, SBUX, SHLD, AMGN, NVDA, BIIB, STX, LRCX, AMAT, LIFE, MXIM and PCLN.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, CHL, CRUS, HAS, NTRI, GMCR, HANS, ACN, FAZ
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
HLF, USO
Staying Below 30 DMA
AMX, AIV, BA, CAT, CLF, CMG, CRM, DE, DECK, DLR, FFIV, GR, HSY, LVS, MA, NETL, NFLX, NYX, SNDK, SWN, TIE, TSL, UCO, UNG, UNP, V, VECO, VMW, BUCY, FCX, GS, ICE, PCLN, SPG, URE, ZION, UAUA, A, AMD, MCD, LXK, ATI, CAM, DHR, DOW, MHS, PCP, USD, WHR, WLT, CREE, PNC, POT, WFMI, WMT, SWK, CSTR, ESI, BYI, STI, JEC, GME, FAS, FLS, PCP, ATW, BAC, GES, X, AGU, IPI, MOS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

Dave is in Boston teaching a 60+ traders for two day on Advanced Technical Analysis...

BMO – ES +6.75 and NQ +9.50 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. In pre-market trading AAPL is +2.16, GOOG +0.44, BIDU +0.58, NFLX -0.58.  Tuesday's intraday chart revels that almost all of the drop to 1,041 support occured during the first hour.  The last five and half hours buyers were taking from sellers at supportIf support breaks on Wednesday trade to the downside according to your rules.  If support holds wait for a bounce and entry signal according to your rules.

Bonds are lower and TLT is down 16 cents in pre-market trading.

The Euro is up 90 pips in overnight trading and moving above its 30 DMA.  Look for energy stocks to lead the market early.

SPY is up 53 cents and XLF is higher in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Short term resistance is at 1,056 the R1 of Tuesday's large black candle. Short term support is at 1,041with the next horizontal support at 1,030.

Follow your rules for potential enter and exits and trade the charts you are trading following the principles of trend, support and resistance and momentum.

Trading Down: FAZ, NFLX

Trading Up: UCO, AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, FAS, BAC

At the Open on Wednesday
SPY –
QQQQ -
FAS -
TLT – support bounce

AAPL – flag
CRUS – flag
BRCM - flag
BIDU –
AKAM – flag
SNDK – flag
NTAP - flag
ILMN – flag
NFLX – flag
FFIV – flag
DECK - flag
CMG – flag
VMW – flag
ALK – flag
UAUA - flag
CAL – flag
SKX – flag
AZO – flag
LVS –flag
HSY – flag
DLR - flag
CRM – flag
TIE – flag
UNG – flag
UCO - flag
AAP – flag
SWN – flag
ICE – flag
BA – flag
CAT – flag

ORLY –
CSTR -
NETL –
NYX –
GMCR –
VECO –
CREE –

AKS
X –
PCLN –
CLF –
DOW –
BBY –
GOOG
MA -
V –
PCP –
UNP –
FCX

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

SPX Breaks Support Falls to 1,041...

DJIA              9,870.30  -268.22   -2.65%
SP500           1,041.24    -33.33   -3.10%
COMPQ        2,135.18    -85.47   -3.85%
Russell 2000     615.96    -25.58   -3.99%

Exchange    NYSE     NASD
Advancing      260         294
Declining      2,853      2,410

Oil             $75.94   -2.31
Gold     $1,242.00  +3.80
SOX          337.67 -16.44VIX             34.13  +5.13

Index      Direction      Confirmation
VIX         Up                 Yes SPX
SOX        Down            Yes COMPQ


All of our bull flag setups moved lower which is why I teach wait for the break of the high of the low day.  FFIV and BA stopped out while HAS, ABC, CRUS, ILMN, NETL and NYX may have held depending on exactly where stops were placed. 

Flag setups ALK, HSY, SKX, AZO, NTAP, UNP, LCC, UAUA, CAL, VECO, AKAM, UCO, SNDK, CAT, UNG, CRM, ICE, NFLX, TIE, SBUX, AAP, GMCR, SWN, VMW, DLR, CMG, BIDU, DECK all moved lower with many breaking below their 30 DMA.

Remember the entry on a flag is a break above the high of the low day.  While it may seem improbable to have any support bounces on Wednesday, if a bounce does occur trade it according to your rules.  We'll find out if big money is still buying at the 1,040 support on Wednesday.
Guidance:
The SPX broke support at its 61.8% Fib level from its June 8 low and price then fell to its next support level at 1,041 a 100% retracement of its recent rally.  If 1,041 support breaks continue to trade to the downside.

I as wrote last night, "However the failure to make a higher high on Monday puts us on alert for a break of support" and "If support breaks trade the short term down trend."  This continues to be the right view for Wednesday morning.


If you had short term bullish profits you likely were stopped out on Tuesday.  Most up trending stocks in our watchlist have fallen back below their 30 DMA with 27 stocks in our watch list falling below on Tuesday.  Continue to protect profits on your short term trades.

Trade weak stocks down.

The VIX rose +5.13 and closed at 34.13.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The six-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -12.13
QCOM -0.90
GOOG -17.82
BIDU -6.87
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: TEVA, SRCL, ADP, ORLY, FLIR, CHRW, COST, JBHT, RYAAY and HANS.
Stocks weaker than the NDX: FLEX, BIDU, AKAM, AMZN, WYNN, FWLT, NIHD, JOYG, DISH, ADBE, RIMM, MICC, LINTA, KLAC and NVDA.



Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, VMW, CHL, CRUS, HAS, HLF, NTRI, GMCR, USO, HANS, ACN
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
FAZ
Moving Below 30 DMA = 27
AMX, AIV, BA, CAT, CLF, CMG, CRM, DE, DECK, DLR, FFIV, GR, HSY, LVS, MA, NETL, NFLX, NYX, SNDK, SWN, TIE, TSL, UCO, UNG, UNP, V, VECO
Staying Below 30 DMA

BUCY, FCX, GS, ICE, PCLN, SPG, URE, ZION, UAUA, A, AMD, MCD, LXK, ATI, CAM, DHR, DOW, MHS, PCP, USD, WHR, WLT, CREE, PNC, POT, WFMI, WMT, SWK, CSTR, ESI, BYI, STI, JEC, GME, FAS, FLS, PCP, ATW, BAC, GES, X, AGU, IPI, MOS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

BMO – ES -13.75 and NQ -27.50 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. In pre-market trading AAPL is -2.56, GOOG -5.09, BIDU -1.94, NFLX -1.49.  Be protective of bullish positions and trade to the downside according to your rules.


Bonds are higher and TLT is up 50 cents in pre-market trading.

The Euro is down 87 pips in overnight trading and breaking below its 10 and 30 DMA.

SPY is dow n 1.37 and XLF is lower in pre-market trading after a 2.7% move up on Friday. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Short term resistance is at 1,081 to 1,085. Short term support is at 1,071 and looks to be broken this morning and the next horizontal support at 1,060.

It appears that Friday's bullish harami which did not confirm on Monday could be replaced by a bearish candle on Tuesday.trader's

Follow your rules for potential enter and exits and trade the charts you are trading following the principles of trend, support and resistance and momentum.

The SPX pull back, looks probable to break its 61.8% Fib level, which suggest a move to the 78% level at 1,061. The SPX is still in an intermediate term sideways trend, congestion or consolidation with price at support.

Remember the entry on a flag is a break above the high of the low day, some gave entries on Monday but most are still in the setup stage...so watch for a potential entry signal today...Also be mindful if any breaks support and creat a trend reversal for opportunities to the downside...

Watch for potential lower lows in these Bull Flags, pull back day 6 in these up trending stocks NFLX, AKAM, SNDK, SBUX, VMW, UAUA, FFIV, ILMN, CRUS, LVS, BA, CAL, CAT, CRM, HAS, HSY, NYX, SWN, TIE, UNG, UCO, BIDU, NTAP, VECO, SKX, DECK, CMG, ICE, NETL, AAP, ALK, AZO, ABC and DLR, most of which are also listed in our At the Open watch list below.

Watch the VIX level on Tuesday which has been staying above 25 indicating higher volatility and movemet to the downside.

Stocks are down on volume in pre-market trading.

Trading Down: GS, FCX, NFLX, POT, X, WHR, SNDK, VECO, FAS, GR, MOS, UNP, USO, TLS, WMT, UCO, LVS, BAC, AMD

Trading Up: FAZ

The short term 3 day trend is down. The intermediate term trend is neutral and long term trend is up.

Trade those charts that meet your rules in the direction of the trend.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

SPX
Support = 1,071, 1,060, 1,041
Resistance = 1,081 1,094, 1,105

At the Open on Tuesday
SPY –
QQQQ -
FAS -
TLT – support bounce

AAPL – flag
CRUS – flag
BRCM - flag
BIDU – flag after symmetrical triangle breakout
AKAM – flag
SNDK – flag
NTAP - flag
ILMN – flag
NFLX – flag
FFIV – flag
DECK - flag
CMG – flag
VMW – flag
ALK – flag
UAUA - flag
CAL – flag
SKX – flag
AZO – flag
LVS –flag
HSY – flag
DLR - flag
CRM – flag
TIE – flag
UNG – flag
UCO - flag
AAP – flag
SWN – flag
ICE – flag
BA – flag
CAT – flag

ORLY –
CSTR -
NETL –
NYX –
GMCR –
VECO –
CREE –

AKS
X –
PCLN –
CLF –
DOW –
BBY –
GOOG
MA -
V –
PCP –
UNP –
FCX –

Monday, June 28, 2010

SPX Trades in Narrow Range...Holds Support...

DJIA             10,138.52   -5.29 -0.05%
SP500             1,074.57   -2.19 -0.20%
COMPQ          2,220.65   -2.83 -0.13%
Russell 2000      641.54   -3.57 -0.55%

Exchange     NYSE    NASD
Advancing     1,428    1,103
Declining       1,635    1,579


Oil           $78.25   -0.61
Gold   $1,238.60 -17.60
SOX        354.11  +2.20
VIX           29.00  +0.47

Index    Direction   Confirmation
VIX        Up              Yes – SPX
SOX      Up               No – COMPQ

The SPX formed a spinning top for the second straight trading day.  Monday's narrow trading range, 11.15, inside day candle did not confirm Friday's bullish harami.  Support held the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the market remained in balance at support. The VIX moved higher confirming the modest move down in the SPX and the breadth weakened as NYSE advancers fell to 1,428 from 2,228 on Friday.

Bull Flag List
FFIV, ABC, CRUS, ILMN, NETL and NYX gave entry signals on Monday.  HAS and BA held its bounce.

Flag Setups - ALK, HSY, SKX, AZO, NTAP, UNP, LCC, UAUA, CAL, VECO, AKAM, UCO, SNDK, CAT, UNG, CRM, ICE, NFLX, TIE, SBUX, AAP, GMCR, SWN, VMW, DLR, CMG, BIDU, DECK

Remember the entry on a flag is a break above the high of the low day, so watch for a potential entry signal on Tuesday.


Guidance:
The SPX held support at its 61.8% Fib level from its June 8 low. The inside day still gives an edge to the upside as we look for confirmation of Friday's bullish harmi.  However the failure to make a higher high on Monday puts us on alert for a break of support.  The unemployment report comes on Friday, if Monday is any indication, traders may be unwilling to move prices higher until the report is out. 
Tighten up stops to protect profits on your short term trades.

Support held on Monday, look for a potential break above the high of the low day on Tuesday.  If support breaks trade the short term down trend.

Trade strong stocks up.
Trade weak stocks down.

The VIX rose +0.47 and closed at 29.00. Volatility stayed above the important 25 level on Monday.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The six-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +1.60
QCOM -0.53
GOOG -0.60
BIDU -1.66
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: CMCSA, FLIR, HSIC, RYAAY, APOL, HANS, INTC, STX, RIMM, LRCX, CSCO, MCHP, ILMN, LBTYA and MXIM.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: GRMN, WYNN, ADBE, JOYG, LINTA, SHLD, AMZN, FWLT, ADSK, BIDU, PCLN, WCRX, FLEX, TEVA and GILD.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, NFLX, SNDK, CMG, VMW, TIE, DECK, DLR, SWN, UNG, CRM, CHL, LVS, CRUS, AMX, CLF, HAS, HLF, FFIV, NTRI, GMCR, BA, CAT, DE, NETL, USO, V, MA, HANS, UCO, ACN, AIV, NYX, TSL, UNP, VECO
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
GR, HSY
Moving Below 30 DMA = 8
BUCY, FCX, GS, ICE, PCLN, SPG, URE, ZION
Staying Below 30 DMA
FAZ, UAUA, A, AMD, MCD, LXK, ATI, CAM, DHR, DOW, MHS, PCP, USD, WHR, WLT, CREE, PNC, POT, WFMI, WMT, SWK, CSTR, ESI, BYI, STI, JEC, GME, FAS, FLS, PCP, ATW, BAC, GES, X, AGU, IPI, MOS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Flat to Slightly Lower Open...

BMO – ES +0.00 and NQ +1.00 futures are flat in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. In pre-market trading AAPL is -0.30, GOOG +1.70, BIDU -0.12, NFLX -0.27.


Bonds are higher and TLT is up 51 cents in pre-market trading.

The Euro is down 45 pips in overnight trading and at the support of its 10 and 30 DMA.

SPY is up 4 cents and XLF is flat in pre-market trading after a 2.7% move up on Friday. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Short term resistance is at 1,081 to 1,085.  Short term support is at 1,071 and the next horizontal support at 1,060.

After Friday's bullish harami trader's should be prepared for bounce confirmation or support break to the next level as it unfolds. Follow your rules for potential enter and exits and trade the charts you are trading following the principles of trend, support and resistance and momentum.

The SPX pull back, held at the 61.8% Fib retracement. The SPX is still in an intermediate term sideways trend, congestion or consolidation with price at support.

Remember the entry on a flag is a break above the high of the low day, some gave entries on Friday but most are setup very nicely...see Friday's post...so watch for a potential entry signal today...

Here are 33...YES...33 still good looking bull flag setups... Bull Flag pull back day 5 in these up trending stocks NFLX, AKAM, SNDK, SBUX, VMW, UAUA, FFIV, ILMN, CRUS, LVS, BA, CAL, CAT, CRM, HAS, HSY, NYX, SWN, TIE, UNG, UCO, BIDU, NTAP, VECO, SKX, DECK, CMG, ICE, NETL, AAP, ALK, AZO, ABC and DLR, most of which are also listed in our At the Open watch list below.

If the SPX makes a higher low and breaks through 1,105, the new chart target is 1,170 in approximately four weeks.

Watch the VIX level on Monday to see if it pulls back or rises in confirmation of price movement.

Stocks are mixed with even number up and down on light volume in pre-market trading.

Trading Down: VMW, BUCY, BA, POT, USO, ICE, DE, FCX, ACN, UCO, UNG, CAT, GME

Trading Up: CMG, MHS, CRM, AMX, SNDK, TIE, MCD, GS, PCLN, DOW, WMT, TSL

The short term 3 day trend is down. The intermediate term trend is neutral and long term trend is up.

Trade those charts that meet your rules in the direction of the trend.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.



SPX
Support = 1,071, 1,060
Resistance = 1,081 1,094, 1,105

At the Open on Monday
SPY –
QQQQ -
FAS -
TLT – support bounce

AAPL – flag
CRUS – flag
BRCM - flag
BIDU – flag after symmetrical triangle breakout
AKAM – flag
SNDK – flag
NTAP - flag
ILMN – flag
NFLX – flag
FFIV – flag
DECK - flag
CMG – flag
VMW – flag
ALK – flag
UAUA - flag
CAL – flag
SKX – flag
AZO – flag
LVS –flag
HSY – flag
DLR - flag
CRM – flag
TIE – flag
UNG – flag
UCO - flag
AAP – flag
SWN – flag
ICE – flag
BA – flag
CAT – flag

ORLY –
CSTR -
NETL – reversal breakout pull back
NYX – reversal breakout pull back
GMCR – reversal breakout pull back
VECO – reversal breakout pull back
CREE –

AKS
X – counter trend at support
PCLN – reversal
CLF – potential double bottom breakout
DOW –
BBY –
GOOG
MA -
V –
PCP –
UNP –
FCX –

Friday, June 25, 2010

SPX Finds Buyers at 61.8% Fib Level...Forms Bullish Harami...

DJIA                          10,143.81   -8.99  -0.09%
SP500                         1,076.76   +3.07 +0.29%
COMPQ                       2,217.42  +6.06 +0.27%
Russell 2000                  645.11 +11.94 +1.89%

Exchange                  NYSE              NASD
Advancing                 2,228               1,824
Declining                     814                  828

Oil           $78.86       +2.31
Gold   $1,255.80      +10.30
SOX        352.09        -0.13
VIX            28.42       -1.22

Index  Direction      Confirmation
VIX      Down           Yes – SPX
SOX    Down            No – COMPQ

After four consecutive down days, buyers stepped in at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the market came into balance. The RUT led the other broad indexes with a gain of 1.89%. The VIX moved lower confirming the modest move up in the SPX and the breadth was solid as NYSE advancers led decliners 2,228 to 814.
Check out these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

The annual reconstitution of the Russell Indexes will take place after the close of the market on June 25 , 2010 and final listing will be posted for the Russell 2000 and other Russell Indexes on June 28. This will likely create some additional short term buying in the stocks being added to the indexes.

Bull Flag List
ThursdayHAS has entry signal

Friday UCO, GMCR, ICE, CAT, NFLX ABC, AKAM, AZO, BA, BIDU, CMG, ILMN, UNG and TIE have either and intraday or end of day break above the high of the low day.
Check out these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

CRM, DECK, CRUS, NYX, AAP, DLR, FFIV, NTAP, SBUX, SKX, SNDK, SWN, UNP, VECO and VMW form a good flag setup and a bullish candle pattern with a potential break of the high of the low day on Monday.
Check out these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

AAPL, BRCM, ALK, CAL, UAUA and HSY make new low day in a fifth day of pull back.

Remember the entry on a flag is a break above the high of the low day, so watch for a potential entry signal on Monday.

Guidance:
The SPX found support at its 61.8% Fib level from its June 8 low. The SPX tested 1,071, touched 1,067 before rallying to a high of 1,083 which is right in the middle of the 1,081 to1,085 short term resistance area, before pulling back to close up for the day at 1,076. The SPX formed a spinning top which is part of a two day candle bullish harami which suggests the potential for a support bounce on Monday. Look for the formation of a higher low and higher high on Monday and for potential confirmation of Friday's bullish harami.


Tighten up stops to protect profits on your short term bearish trades.

If a support bounce fails to appear on Monday, stay with the short term down trend while looking for a potential break above the high of the low day in up trending stocks on Monday.

Trade strong stocks up.
Trade weak stocks down.

The VIX fell -1.22 and closed at 28.52. Volatility stayed above the important 25 level on Friday.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The six-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -2.30
QCOM -0.22
GOOG -2.42
BIDU +2.30
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: URBN, PCLN, WYNN, BIDU, CERN, CELG, JOYG, ILMN, AMZN, SRCL, FSLR, ORCL, AKAM, FWLT and GILD.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: RIMM, APOL, DISH, MSFT, CSCO, MRVL, INTC, ADBE, PAYX, ROST, NWSA, AAPL, CMCSA, LOGI and VRSN.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, NFLX, SNDK, CMG, VMW, TIE, DECK, DLR, SWN, UNG, CRM, CHL, LVS, CRUS, AMX, CLF, HAS, HLF, FFIV, NTRI, GMCR, BA, CAT, DE, NETL, USO, V, MA, HANS, UCO
Moving Above 30 DMA = 14
ACN, AIV, BUCY, FCX, GS, ICE, NYX, PCLN, SPG, TSL, UNP, URE, VECO, ZION
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
FAZ, UAUA, HSY
Staying Below 30 DMA
A, AMD, GR, MCD, LXK, ATI, CAM, DHR, DOW, MHS, PCP, USD, WHR, WLT, CREE, PNC, POT, WFMI, WMT, SWK, CSTR, ESI, BYI, STI, JEC, GME, FAS, FLS, PCP, ATW, BAC, GES, X, AGU, IPI, MOS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Financials are Higher in Pre-Market...Futures Point to a Flat to Slighly Higher Open...

11:10 am ET - Check out GMCR, ACN, ICE, STI, AKAM, UCO, ILMN, ZION, AAP, ABC, AZO, BIDU, SBUX, NFLX...maybe some setups and entries appearing...


Good Morning...

BMO – ES +1.75 and NQ +0.75 futures are flat in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. In pre-market trading AAPL is +0.86, GOOG +1.95, BIDU +0.33, NFLX +0.35.

Financial stocks are stronger this morning...

Bonds are lower and TLT is down 37 cents in pre-market trading.


The Euro is down 26 pips in overnight trading and at the support of its 10 and 30 DMA.

SPY is is up 26 cents and XLF is up 18 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Short term resistance is at 1,081 to 1,085 Short term support is at 1,071 and the next horizontal support at 1,060.

Trader's should be prepared for bounce or support break to the next level as it unfolds. Follow your rules for potential enter and exits and trade the charts you are trading following the principles of trend, support and resistance and momentum.

This continues to be a pull back, now a 61.8% Fib retracement, in a short term trend; in an intermediate term sideways trend. We also refer to the intermediate term pattern as congestion or consolidation.

Stocks are mixed with a bias to the upside on light volume in pre-market trading.

AAPL and BRCM are also flag patterns and NTRI is a horizontal flag.

Remember the entry on a flag is a break above the high of the low day, so watch for a potential entry signal today...HAS has potential buyout news so be mindful of its gap this morning

Here are 33...YES...33 terrific looking bull flag setups... Bull Flag pull back day 4 in these up trending stocks NFLX, AKAM, SNDK, SBUX, VMW, UAUA, FFIV, ILMN, LVS, BA, CAL, CAT, CRM, HAS, HSY, NYX, SWN, TIE, UNG, UCO, BIDU, NTAP, VECO, SKX, DECK, CMG, ICE, NETL, AAP, ALK, AZO, ABC and DLR. most of which are also listed in our At the Open watch list below.

If the SPX makes a higher low and breaks through 1,105, the new chart target is 1,170 in approximately four weeks.

Watch the VIX level on Friday to see if it pulls back or rises in confirmation of price movement.

Stocks are mostly higher on light volume in pre-market trading.

Trading Down: VMW, BA, FAZ, HAS, BYI

Trading Up: GS, ACN, MA, PNC, FAS, SPG, V, HSY, CRM, USO, CREE, SNDK, ZION, CAT, LVS, NFLX, MOS, TSL, FCX, POT, UCO, AGU, MCD, UAUA

The short term 3 day trend is down. The intermediate term trend is neutral and long term trend is up.

Trade those charts that meet your rules in the direction of the trend.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

SPX
Support = 1,071, 1,060
Resistance = 1,081 1,094, 1,105

At the Open on Friday
SPY –
QQQQ -
FAS -
TLT – support bounce

AAPL – flag
CRUS – flag
BRCM - flag
BIDU – flag after symmetrical triangle breakout
AKAM – flag
SNDK – flag
NTAP - flag
ILMN – flag
NFLX – flag
FFIV – flag
DECK - flag
CMG – flag
VMW – flag
ALK – flag
UAUA - flag
CAL – flag
SKX – flag
AZO – flag
LVS –flag
HSY – flag
DLR - flag
CRM – flag
TIE – flag
UNG – flag
UCO - flag
AAP – flag
SWN – flag
ICE – flag
BA – flag
CAT – flag

ORLY –
CSTR -
NETL – reversal breakout pull back
NYX – reversal breakout pull back
GMCR – reversal breakout pull back
VECO – reversal breakout pull back
CREE –

AKS
X – counter trend at support
PCLN – reversal
CLF – potential double bottom breakout
DOW –
BBY –
GOOG
MA -
V –
PCP –
UNP –
FCX –

Thursday, June 24, 2010

SPX Falls to 61.8% Fib Level...

DJIA                          10,152.80  -145.64  -1.41%
SP500                         1,073.69    -18.35 -1.68%
COMPQ                       2,217.42  -36.81 -1.63%
Russell 2000                  633.17    -11.08 -1.72%

Exchange                  NYSE              NASD
Advancing                    696                  648
Declining                   2,346               2,004

Oil           $76.51       +0.16
Gold   $1,245.50       +11.30
SOX        352.22       -10.66
VIX            29.74       +2.83

Index  Direction      Confirmation
VIX      Up               Yes SPX
SOX    Down           Yes COMPQ

The SPX fell to its 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1,171 before buyers stepped in and rallied to close at 1,073.

Only HAS gave an entry signal from our bull flag list. AAP, ABC, AZO, BA, HSY, ILMN and UCO held at support and are setup for a potential bounce on Friday.

The rest of our 33 up trending flag pattern stocks made their fourth day of pull back...continue to watch for a potential bounce on Friday: NFLX, AKAM, SNDK, VMW, UAUA, FFIV, ILMN, LVS, BA, CAL, CAT, CRM, HAS, HSY, NYX, SWN, TIE, UNG, UCO, BIDU, NTAP, VECO, SKX, DECK, CMG, ICE, NETL, AAP, ALK, AZO, ABC and DLR.

Guidance:
The SPX broke it 50% Fib level, its 1,081 horizontal support and fell to its 1,071 support level and 61.8% Fib level before closing at 1,073.

Stay with the short term down trend while looking for a potential break above the high of the low day in up trending stocks on Friday.

1,081 to1,085 and 1,105 are now short term resistance.

Trade strong stocks up.
Trade weak stocks down.


The VIX rose +2.83 and closed at 29.74. Volatility stayed above the critical 25 level on Thursday.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The six-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -1.97
QCOM -0.63
GOOG -6.95
BIDU -2.39
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: HANS, LBTYA, FLIR, DISH, WYNN, SRCL, TEVA, AMGN, JBHT, MICC, XRAY, ILMN, ADBE, GENZ and RYAAY.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: DELL, LOGI, ADSK, BBBY, NWSA, NVDA, STX, MRVL, FWLT, EXPE, BRCM, KLAC, HOLX, FSLR and BIDU.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, NFLX, SNDK, CMG, VMW, TIE, DECK, HSY, DLR, SWN, UNG, UAUA, CRM, CHL, LVS, CRUS, AMX, CLF, HAS, HLF, FFIV, NTRI, GMCR, BA, CAT, DE, NETL, USO, V, MA, HANS
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
FAZ, UCO
Moving Below 30 DMA = 11
A, AIV, AMD, BUCY, GR, MCD, NYX, SPG, TSL, UNP, VECO
Staying Below 30 DMA
ICE, LXK, ACN, ATI, CAM, DHR, DOW, FCX, MHS, PCP, USD, URE, WHR, WLT, CREE, PNC, POT, WFMI, WMT, SWK, FAZ, CSTR, ESI, BYI, ZION, STI, JEC, GME, FAS, FLS, PCLN, PCP, ATW, BAC, GES, GS, X, AGU, IPI, MOS


Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Lower Open...HAS Up Almost 5 Points...

BMO – ES -8.25 and NQ -16.50 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open in front of the durable goods and jobless claims report due out at 8:30 am ET. In pre-market trading AAPL is -1.15, GOOG -2.53, BIDU -1.07, NFLX +0.23.


HAS is up +4.68 in pre-market trading on buyout report.

Bonds are higher and TLT is up 46 cents in pre-market trading.

The Euro is down 44 pips in overnight trading and at the support of its 10 and 30 DMA.

SPY is is down 85 cents and XLF is down 8 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.


Short term resistance is at 1,103 to 1,105. Short term support is at Wednesday's low and 50% Fib level of 1,085 and horizontal support at 1,081.


Trader's should be prepared for bounce or support break as it unfolds. Follow your rules for potential enter and exits and trade the charts you are trading following the principles of trend, support and resistance and momentum.

This is a pull back in a short term trend in and intermediate term sideways trend. We also refer to the intermediate term pattern as congestion or consolidation.

Stocks are mixed with a bias to the upside on light volume in pre-market trading.

AAPL pulled back while BRCM and NTRI were up and stronger than the market on Wednesday.

Remember the entry on a flag is a break above the high of the low day, so watch for a potential entry signal today...HAS has potential buyout news so be mindful of its gap this morning

Here are 32...YES...32 terrific looking bull flag setups... Bull Flag pull back day 3 in these up trending stocks NFLX, AKAM, SNDK, SBUX, VMW, UAUA, FFIV, ILMN, LVS, BA, CAL, CAT, CRM, HAS, HSY, NYX, SWN, TIE, UNG, UCO, BIDU, NTAP, VECO, SKX, DECK, CMG, ICE, NETL, AAP, ALK, AZO and DLR. most of which are also listed in our At the Open watch list below.

If the SPX makes a higher low and breaks through 1,105, the new chart target is 1,170 in approximately four weeks.

Watch the VIX level on Thursday.

Stocks are mostly lower on light volume in pre-market trading.

Trading Down: BUCY, CLF, GS, CAT, CRM, POT, V, FCX, X, WLT, ATI, FAS, DE, LVS, SNDK, UAUA, URE, TSL, AKS, CRUS, NYX

Trading Up: HAS, FAZ

The short term 3 day trend is down. The intermediate term trend is neutral and long term trend is up.

Trade those charts that meet your rules in the direction of the trend.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

SPX
Support = 1,081, 1,071
Resistance = 1,094, 1,105, 1,119, 1,130, 1,148

At the Open on Thursday
SPY –
QQQQ -
FAS -
TLT – support bounce

AAPL – new high close
CRUS –
BRCM -
BIDU – symmetrical triangle breakout
AKAM – flag
SNDK – flag
NTAP - flag
ILMN – flag
NFLX – flag
FFIV – flag
DECK - flag
CMG – flag
VMW – flag
ALK – flag
UAUA - flag
CAL – flag
SKX – flag
AZO – flag
LVS –flag
HSY – flag
DLR - flag
CRM – flag
TIE – flag
UNG – flag
UCO - flag
AAP – flag
SWN – flag
ICE – flag
BA – flag
CAT – flag

ORLY –
CSTR -
NETL – reversal breakout
NYX – reversal breakout
GMCR – reversal breakout
BA – reversal breakout
CAT – reversal breakout
VECO – reversal breakout
CREE – reversal breakout

AKS
X – counter trend at support
PCLN – reversal
CLF – potential double bottom breakout
DOW –
BBY –
GOOG
MA -
V –
PCP –
UNP –
FCX –

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

SPX...Buyers at 50% Fib Level Create Support Bounce...

DJIA                          10,298.44  +4.92 +0.05%
SP500                         1,092.04    -3.27  -0.30%
COMPQ                       2,254.23   -7.57 -0.33%
Russell 2000                  644.25    -1.66 -0.26%

Exchange                  NYSE              NASD
Advancing                 1,425               1,198
Declining                   1,614               1,415


Oil           $76.35       -1.50
Gold   $1,234.20       -5.90
SOX        362.88       +1.49
VIX            26.91       -0.14

Index  Direction      Confirmation
VIX      Down            No – SPX
SOX    Up                 No – COMPQ

The SPX fell to its 50% Fibonacci level at 1,185 before buyers stepped in and the SPX rallied to close at 1,092. Breadth increased significantly as Advancing issues increased to 1,425 on the NYSE from 625 on Tuesday.

Both the SOX and VIX gave a non-confirmation (did not confirm) of Wednesday's modest move down.

AAPL paused while BRCM and NTRI moved higher on Wednesday.

Bull Flag pull back day 3 in these up trending stocks NFLX, AKAM, SNDK, VMW, UAUA, FFIV, ILMN, LVS, BA, CAL, CAT, CRM, HAS, HSY, NYX, SWN, TIE, UNG, UCO, BIDU, NTAP, VECO, SKX, DECK, CMG, ICE, NETL, AAP, ALK, AZO and DLR.

Three day bull flag pull backs and some hammer patterns...
Check out these Charts
(click image to enlarge)
Check out these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Guidance:
After finding buyers at 1,085 the SPX rallied to 1,098, its 30 DMA, and then settled down to close at 1,092.

Look for a break above the high of the low day in up trending stocks on Thursday.

1,103 to 1,105 is now short term resistance.

Trade strong stocks up.
Trade weak stocks down.

The VIX fell -0.14 and closed at 26.91. Volatility stayed above the critical 25 level on Wednesday.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The six-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -2.88
QCOM -0.15
GOOG -4.20
BIDU +0.51
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: BBBY, AKAM, ALTR, LLTC, STLD, FLEX, ORLY, RIMM, CEPH, WYNN, FLIR, MICC, CELG, RYAAY and JBHT.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: ADBE, LINTA, ADSK, ISRG, MSFT, HOLX, SPLS, CHKP, IACI, PAYX, EXPE, AAPL, EBAY and STX.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, NFLX, SNDK, CMG, VMW, TIE, DECK, HSY, DLR, SWN, UNG, UAUA, CRM, CHL, LVS, CRUS, AMX, CLF, HAS, HLF, MCD, UNP, FFIV, NTRI, GMCR, NYX, AMD, BA, CAT, DE, GR, NETL, TSL, USO, V, MA, HANS, VECO
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
A, AIV, BUCY, SPG
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
ICE, LXK
Staying Below 30 DMA
ACN, ATI, CAM, DHR, DOW, FCX, MHS, PCP, USD, URE, WHR, WLT, CREE, PNC, POT, WFMI, WMT, SWK, FAZ, CSTR, ESI, BYI, ZION, STI, JEC, GME, FAS, FLS, PCLN, PCP, ATW, BAC, GES, GS, X, AGU, IPI, MOS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Slightly Higher Open...

BMO – ES +5.00 and NQ +8.75 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. In pre-market trading AAPL is +1.46, GOOG +2.55, BIDU +1.12, NFLX +1.79.


Bonds are slightly lower and TLT is down 34 cents in pre-market trading.

The Euro is flat in overnight trading and at the support of its 10 and 30 DMA forming a doji and a flag pattern at this moment.

SPY is is up 44 cents and XLF is up 7 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Short term resistance is at 1,103 to 1,105. This same support level was broken on Tuesday in a continuation pull back that started on Monday. Watch for a potential test of Tuesday's break today. If buyers don't take it through this short term resistance, there could be more to this pull back.

Because of the reversal pattern on the chart with the low at 1,040, this current move is most likely a pull back in an overall sideways intermediate term trend. Based on the chart it appears most probable that this pull back will make a higher low. Whether that is Tuesday's low or a low to be made on a different today this week or next, will be determined by when buyers take the SPX back through the 1,103 to 1,105 level.

After nine and a half net up days, this short term trend was due for a correction. Tuesday's low marked a 38.2% Fib retracement on the SPX and could be the low. If this morning's trading stays above Tuesday's low of 1,094 and can break through the 1,105 resistance with a confirmation from the VIX falling below 25, then this may be the pull back low.

If trading can't accomplish that, then we will look for another lower high and lower low today. Next support level is at 1,081.

Trader's should be prepared for either outcome as it unfolds. Follow your rules for potential enter and exits and trade the charts you are trading following the principles of trend, support and resistance and momentum.

This is a pull back in a short term trend in an intermediate term sideways trend. We also refer to the intermediate term pattern as congestion or consolidation.

Stocks are mixed with a bias to the upside on light volume in pre-market trading.

Continue to be alert to the 1,103 resistance level and the potential for a break through resistance or the support of Tuesday's low.

AAPL, BRCM and NTRI were up and stronger than the market on Tuesday as were BIDU and GOOG thought they were down slightly. .

Here are 30...YES...30 terrific looking bull flag setups... NFLX, AKAM, SNDK, CMG, VMW, UAUA, CAL, ALK, DECK, SKX, HSY, FFIV, ILMN, LVS, AZO, AAP, TIE, DLR, UNG, UCO, ICE, NETL, BA, CAT, NYX, BIDU, NTAP, SWN, HAS and CRM, most of which are also listed in our At the Open watch list below.

If any of them work, you can thank me later.

If the SPX makes a higher low and breaks through 1,105, the new chart target is 1,170 in approximately four weeks.

VIX closed at 27 on Tuesday. I view 25 as an important confirmation level for a continuation of the recent support bounce. If this breakout support bounce is going to continue look for the VIX to stay below 25.

Trading Down: FAZ
Trading Up: NFLX, BUCY, PNC, ATI, CHL, MOS, POT, CAT, HSY, BA, FCX,SNDK, CLF, TIE, FAS, V, LVS, X, GS, CRUS, MCD

There are other stocks quoting higher on no volume in the pre-market trading.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral. The intermediate term trend is neutral and long term trend is up.

Trade those charts that meet your rules in the direction of the trend.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

SPX
Support = 1,094, 1,081, 1,071
Resistance = 1,105, 1,119, 1,130, 1,148

At the Open on Wednesday
SPY –
QQQQ -
FAS -
TLT – support bounce

AAPL – new high close
CRUS –
BRCM -
BIDU – symmetrical triangle breakout
AKAM – flag
SNDK – flag
NTAP - flag
ILMN – flag
NFLX – flag
FFIV – flag
DECK - flag
CMG – flag
VMW – flag
ALK – flag
UAUA - flag
CAL – flag
SKX – flag
AZO – flag
LVS –flag
HSY – flag
DLR - flag
CRM – flag
TIE – flag
UNG – flag
UCO - flag
AAP – flag
SWN – flag
ICE – flag
BA – flag
CAT – flag

ORLY –
CSTR -
NETL – reversal breakout
NYX – reversal breakout
GMCR – reversal breakout
BA – reversal breakout
CAT – reversal breakout
VECO – reversal breakout
CREE – reversal breakout

AKS
X – counter trend at support
PCLN – reversal
CLF – potential double bottom breakout
DOW –
BBY –
GOOG
MA -
V –
PCP –
UNP –
FCX –

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Yellow Alert Turns Red as SPX Breaks 1,103 Support...Low of the High Day...

DJIA                          10,293.52  -148.89 -1.43%
SP500                         1,095.31    -17.89 -1.61%
COMPQ                       2,261.80   -27.29 -1.19%
Russell 2000                  645.91    -14.12 -2.14%

Exchange                  NYSE              NASD
Advancing                    625                  587
Declining                   2,458               2,081

Oil           $78.55       -0.06
Gold   $1,240.10       +0.20
SOX        361.39       -6.65
VIX            27.05       +2.17

Index  Direction      Confirmation
VIX      Up                Yes – SPX
SOX    Down            Yes – COMPQ

After a rising slightly higher, the SPX reached 1,118.50, right at the 1,119 resistance area that I alerted you to in this morning's post. The SPX traded between 1,110 and 1,116 until just after 2 pm ET, when selling accelerated and the SPX fell to its 1,095 close.

AAPL, BRCM and CRUS  moved higher on Tuesday. In Friday's Weekly Wrap I said how the market was likely to drift over the next three weeks prior to earnings. We saw some of that drift within its trading range today.

Up trending stocks NFLX, AKAM, SNDK, CMG, VMW, UAUA, CAL, ALK, DECK, SKX, HSY, FFIV, ILMN, LVS, AZO, AAP, TIE, DLR, UNG, UCO, ICE, NETL, BA, CAT, NYX, BIDU, NTAP, SWN and CRM are in bull flag pull backs for the second day today.


Guidance:
Monday's Yellow Alert turned red as a majority of stocks moved lower with the SPX and many stock breaking the low of the high day on Tuesday, giving a potential short term exit on many charts for short term traders. The SPX also closed below its 30 DMA.

I alerted you to also move bullish stops up and be prepared for a potential pull back in Monday's night post.

The Short term support at 1,103 was broken on Tuesday. 1,103 to 1,105 is now short term resistance.

Trade strong stocks up wheen they give entry signals according to your rules.

Trade weak stocks down.

The VIX rose +2.17 and closed at 27.05. Volatility rose above the critical 25 level on Tuesday in confirmation of the SPX move down.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The six-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +3.68
QCOM -0.07
GOOG -2.31
BIDU -0.68
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: AAPL, WCRX, BRCM, BIIB, GENZ, EXPE, PCLN, QCOM, AMZN, GRMN, RIMM, COST, LIFE, SIAL and HSIC.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: FWLT, JBHT, FLEX, VRTX, DISH, NVDA, FAST, EXPD, NIHD, SPLS, PCAR, LRCX, APOL, URBN and ATVI.

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, NFLX, SNDK, CMG, VMW, TIE, DECK, HSY, DLR, SWN, UNG, UAUA, CRM, CHL, LVS, CRUS, AMX, CLF, HAS, HLF, ICE, MCD, UNP, FFIV, LXK, NTRI, GMCR, NYX, AMD, BA, CAT, DE, GR, NETL, TSL, USO, V, MA, HANS, VECO
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 15
A, ACN, AIV, ATI, CAM, DHR, DOW, FCX, MHS, PCP, SPG, USD, URE, WHR, WLT
Staying Below 30 DMA
CREE, PNC, POT, WFMI, WMT, BUCY, WLT, SWK, FAZ, CSTR, ESI, BYI, WMT, ZION, STI, PNC, JEC, GME, HANS, FAS, FLS, PCLN, PCP, ATW, BAC, GES, GS, FCX, X, AGU, IPI, MOS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Future Point to a Flat Open with Nasdaq Leaders Up...

BMO – ES -1.25 and NQ +2.50 futures are flat in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. In pre-market trading AAPL is +1.82, GOOG +0.04, BIDU +1.13, NFLX +2.01.

Bonds are slightly higher and TLT is up 41 cents in pre-market trading.

The Euro is down 35 pips in overnight trading and at its 30 DMA forming a flag pattern.

SPY is is unchanged and XLF is up 1 cent in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Short term support is still 1,103 watch for a potential test after Monday's pull back. Short term resistance on Monday's candle is at 1,119 with intermediate resistance at 1,130.

Stocks are mixed on light volume in pre-market trading. This is suggesting that Monday's low represent at least a temporary level of balance in trading. We'll watch if buyers take control at the open. Remember buyers are in net control over the past 10 trading days and while Monday's pull back can continue, look primarily for a higher lower and support bounce at some point.

Continue to be alert to the 1,103 support level and the potential for a break below the low of the high day.

Look through our watch list below for potential setups. NFLX, BIDU, AAPL may lead the market higher as they have found at temporary support after Monday's pull back.

The breakout continues to hold with the new chart target is 1,170 in approximately four weeks. Monday's pull back is testing last week's the breakout and is setting up a potential entry opportunity.

VIX closed just below 25 on Monday. I view 25 as an important confirmation level for pull back if over 25 and support bounce continuation under 25. If this breakout support bounce is going to continue look for the VIX to stay below 25.

Trading Down: ZION, TSL, SWK, MOS
Trading Up: NFLX, BUCY, CSTR, NETL, SNDK, CAT, MA, CLF, X, CRUS, MHS, V, GS, POT, URE

The short term 3 day trend is neutral. The intermediate term trend is neutral and long term trend is up.

Trade those charts that meet your rules in the direction of the trend.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

SPX
Support = 1,105, 1,081, 1,071
Resistance = 1,119, 1,130, 1,148

At the Open on Tuesday
SPY –
QQQQ -
FAS -
AKAM – new high
CRUS – new high
ALK – new high

AAPL – breakout
SNDK - breakout
DECK - breakout
CMG – breakout
VMW – breakout
UAUA - breakout
CAL – breakout
FFIV – breakout
SKX – breakout
AZO – breakout
LVS – breakout

ILMN – pennant
BIDU – symmetrical triangle
NFLX – flag bounce
HSY – flag bounce
DLR - flag
CRM – flag
TIE – horizontal flag
UNG – horizontal flag

ORLY – flag
AAP -
SWN – flag
ICE –
CSTR -

GMCR – reversal breakout
BA – reversal breakout
CAT – reversal breakout
VECO – reversal breakout
CREE – reversal breakout
NETL – reversal breakout
NYX – reversal breakout

AKS
X – counter trend at support
PCLN – reversal
CLF – potential double bottom breakout
DOW –
BBY –
GOOG
MA -
V –
PCP –
UNP –
FCX –

Monday, June 21, 2010

SPX Pulls Back After Reaching 1,130 Resistance...

DJIA                          10,442.41   -8.23 -0.08%
SP500                         1,113.20    -4.31 -0.39%
COMPQ                       2,289.09  -20.71 -0.90%
Russell 2000                  660.03    -6.89 -1.03%

Exchange                  NYSE              NASD
Advancing                 1,267                  896
Declining                   1,794               1,806

Oil           $78.61       +0.35
Gold   $1,239.90       -17.50
SOX        368.04       -3.17
VIX            24.88      +0.93
Index  Direction      Confirmation
VIX      Up                Yes – SPX
SOX    Down            Yes – COMPQ

Guidance:
After a higher open the SPX reached 1,131 resistance area and reversed closing slightly lower at 1,113. Bearish engulfing patterns were very abundant on Monday putting short term traders on Yellow Alert once again. Look for a potential break of the low of the high day on Tuesday as a potential short term exit on the charts you trade.  As always follow your rules.

Time to move bullish stops up and be prepared for a potential pull back.

Short term support is at 1,103 the S1 level of Tuesday's large white candle.

Trade strong stocks up.
Trade weak stocks down.

The VIX rose +0.93 and closed at 24.88.  Watch to see if volatility rises above 25 on Tuesday.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The six-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -3.90
QCOM -0.05
GOOG -11.47
BIDU +2.27
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: BIDU, KLAC, AMGN, WYNN, PCAR, LINTA, JOYG, HANS, STLD, GENZ, HSIC, ATVI, LOGI, ISRG and BRCM.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: RIMM, STX, BBBY, MRVL, AMZN, EXPE, NVDA, GOOG, YHOO, URBN, PCLN, MICC, MSFT, XLNX, and SPLS.
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday

Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, NFLX, SNDK, CMG, VMW, TIE, DECK, HSY, DLR, SWN, UNG, UAUA, CRM, MHS, CHL, LVS, CRUS, AIV, AMX, ATI, CLF, HAS, HLF, ICE, MCD, SPG, UNP, FFIV, LXK, NTRI, GMCR, NYX, URE, AMD, BA, CAM, CAT, CREE, DE, DHR, DOW, GR, NETL, TSL, USD, USO, V, WHR, A, MA, HANS, ACN, VECO
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
FCX, PCP, WLT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
CREE, PNC, POT, WFMI, WMT
Staying Below 30 DMA
BUCY, WLT, SWK, FAZ, CSTR, ESI, BYI, WMT, ZION, STI, PNC, JEC, GME, HANS, FAS, FLS, PCLN, PCP, ATW, BAC, GES, GS, FCX, X, AGU, IPI, MOS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

BMO – ES +14.00 and NQ +24.50 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. In pre-market trading AAPL is +3.67, GOOG +0.46, BIDU +2.70, NFLX -0.72.


Bonds are flat and TLT is down -1.14 in pre-market trading.

The Euro is down 44 pips in overnight trading and above its 30 DMA.

SPY is is up 1.26 cents and XLF is up 19 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

If the cash SPX opens near where the futures are trading at this time it will be above its 1,130 resistance
Pre-market trading is suggesting a continuation of the support bounce. 
If the breakout holds the new chart target is 1,170 in approximately four weeks.

VIX closed below25 on Friday.  Confirmation of breakout continuation.

Trading Down: NFLX, FAZ, MA

Trading Up: PCLN, FCX, DECK, WLT, CLF, CREE, ICE, CRM, BUCY, X, CAT, GS, POT, SWK, CSTR, SNDK, DE, SKX, WHR, HSY, VMW, BA, AGU, URE, MOS, FAS, CRUS, V, LVS,
USD, ATI, TIE, CHL, USO, ZION, TSL, AKS, DOW, NYX, SWN, UAUA, VECO, ATW, PNC, NETL, IPI, STI, UNG, HAS, MCD, AMD, FFIV, WMT, AMD

The short term 3 day trend is up. The intermediate term trend is neutral and long term trend is up.

Trade those charts that meet your rules in the direction of the trend.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

SPX
Support = 1,105, 1,081, 1,071
Resistance = 1,130, 1,148

At the Open on Monday
SPY –
QQQQ -
FAS -
AKAM – new high
CRUS – new high
ALK – new high

AAPL – breakout
SNDK - breakout
DECK - breakout
CMG – breakout
VMW – breakout
UAUA - breakout
CAL – breakout
FFIV – breakout
SKX – breakout
AZO – breakout
LVS – breakout

ILMN – pennant
BIDU – symmetrical triangle
NFLX – flag bounce
HSY – flag bounce
DLR - flag
CRM – flag
TIE – horizontal flag
UNG – horizontal flag

ORLY – flag
AAP -
SWN – flag
ICE –
CSTR -

GMCR – reversal breakout
BA – reversal breakout
CAT – reversal breakout
VECO – reversal breakout
CREE – reversal breakout
NETL – reversal breakout
NYX – reversal breakout

AKS
X – counter trend at support
PCLN – reversal
CLF – potential double bottom breakout
DOW –
BBY –
GOOG
MA -
V –
PCP –
UNP –
FCX –

Friday, June 18, 2010

SPX Adds a Point in Narrow Range Trading...Closes at 1,117...

DJIA                          10,450.64  +16.47 +0.16%
SP500                         1,117.51   +1.47 +0.13%
COMPQ                       2,309.80   +2.64 +0.11%
Russell 2000                  666.92   +1.07 +0.16%

Exchange                  NYSE              NASD
Advancing                 1,691              1,446
Declining                   1,350              1,230

Oil           $77.18       +0.39
Gold   $1,257.20       +9.70
SOX        3771.21      -1.18
VIX            23.95       -1.10

Index  Direction      Confirmation
VIX      Down            Yes – SPX
SOX    Down             No – COMPQ

After a strong trend day on Tuesday the SPX traded in a narrow trading range Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Friday's SPX range was just 7 points. The SPX did make a higher high and higher low and a new high close on Friday.  The weekly chart clearly shows a breakout of the three week bottom. The VIX closed below 25 which as we have been saying for weeks is the confirmation of the up trend.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Stay with the trend on leading stocks like AKAM, CRUS, ALK, SNDK, DECK, CMG, FFIV, SKX, NFLX, HSY, DLR, CRM, TIE, VMW, ILMN, AAPL , BIDU, UAUA, CAL, AZO, LVS and UNG.

Look at reversal breakout stocks that may be ready to run with the leaders like GMCR, VECO, CREE, NETL, NYX, BA and CAT.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Guidance:
Another successful test of Tuesday's breakout found buyers at the 1,113 area as the SPX made a higher high and a higher low on Friday while making a new high close. We look for the up trend to continue higher with three weeks to go until the July earnings season starts.

1,170 in 4 weeks in the new SPX chart target.

Short term support is at 1,103 the S1 level of Tuesday's large white candle.

Trade strong stocks with the re-emerging up trend.
The VIX fell -1.10 and closed at 23.95.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The six-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +2.20
QCOM -0.02
GOOG -0.05
BIDU +1.61
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: VRTX, WCRX, GENZ, ISRG, ADSK, BIDU, BBBY, BIIB, CEPH, CSCO, KLAC, ADBE, MICC, ATVI and HSIC.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: LINTA, RYAAY, SHLD, NIHD, TEVA, LRCX, RIMM, ESRX, NTAP, PAYX, STX, MXIM, DELL, PCLN and NWSA

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, NFLX, SNDK, CMG, VMW, TIE, AZO, DECK, HSY, SWN, UNG, UAUA, CRM, MHS, CHL, LVS, AIV, AMX, ATI, CLF, HAS, HLF, ICE, MCD, SPG, UNP, LXK, NTRI, GMCR, URE, WFMI, AMD, BA, CAM, CAT, CREE, DE, DHR, DOW, GR, POT, TSL, USD, USO, V, WHR, MA, HANS
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
ACN, WMT, PNC
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA
BUCY, WLT, SWK, FAZ, CSTR, ESI, BYI, ZION, STI, JEC, GME, HANS, FAS, FLS, PCLN, PCP, ATW, BAC, GES, GS, FCX, X, AGU, IPI, MOS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Just Turned Up Higher Open...Light Pre-Market Volume...Triple Witching Expiration Friday...

BMO – ES +1.75 and NQ +5.25futures are near even in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. In pre-market trading AAPL is +0.33, GOOG +1.03, BIDU +0.15, NFLX +0.25.


Bonds are flat and TLT is down 6 cents in pre-market trading.

The Euro is down 10 pips in overnight trading and above its 30 DMA.

SPY is is down 50 cents and XLF is down 2 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Futures are flat just before the of triple witching expiration Friday. Stocks are mixed with some up a little and some down a little on light volume in pre-market trading. Next short term resistance is at 1,124.
Pre-market trading is suggesting a continuation of the narrow range trading of the past two days on options expiration Friday.

If the breakout holds the new chart target is 1,170 in approximately four weeks.

VIX closed just above 25 on Thursday, its lowest closing level since May 5. If this breakout is going to continue look for a drop below 25 in the VIX and a close below that level.

Stocks are lower on light volume in pre-market trading.
If the breakout holds, the pull back testing the breakout is an entry opportunity.

Trading Down: MHS, SWN, WHR, PCP, POT, CMG, DEC, FCX, URE, USO, X, BA, SNDK

Trading Up: FLS, CREE, CRUS, GS, NFLX, V, DHR, PNC, CAT

The short term 3 day trend is up. The intermediate term trend is neutral and long term trend is up.

Trade those charts that meet your rules in the direction of the trend.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

SPX
Support = 1,105, 1,081, 1,071
Resistance = 1,124, 1,145

At the Open on Friday
SPY –
QQQQ -
FAS -
TLT
HSY –
UNG –

BIDU -
SNDK - breakout
DECK - breakout
CMG - breakout
BIDU -
ILMN –
UAUA - breakout
CAL – breakout
GOOG –
CRUS
TIE

NFLX – flag bounce
AKAM -
DTV -
VMW –
CRM – flag
ALK -
AAPL –
ORLY –
AAP -
SWN –
AZO -
LVS –
ICE –
CSTR -
AKS
X – counter trend at support
PCLN – reversal
CLF – potential double bottom breakout
DOW –
BBY –
MA -
V –
CAT –
PCP –
UNP –
FCX –
GMCR – reversal