Friday, February 26, 2010

SPX Closes February Up 30 Points for the Month...

DJIA 10,325.26 +4.23 +0.04%
SP500 1,104.49 +1.55 +0.14%
COMPQ 2,238.26 +4.04 +0.18%
Russell 2000 628.56 -1.90 -0.30%

Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,810 1,253
Declining 1,227 1,440

Oil $79.66 +1.49
Gold $1,118.30 +10.50
SOX 338.86 +0.47
VIX 19.50 -0.60

Index Direction Confirmation
VIX Down Yes – SPX
SOX Up Yes – COMPQ

Strongest Sectors: XLF +0.62%…XLI +0.38%...XLE +0.23%
Weakest Sectors: XLU -0.78%...XLP -0.48%...XLB +0.03%

Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Financials, Industrials, Energy and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +0.14%.

Sector Watch
Up Trending: XLK, XLY, XLV, XLI
Horizontal Breakout:
Sideways: XLF, XLE, XLU, XLP, XLB
Down Trending:

Key Resistance Levels:
1,105 - 1,113 = November High
1,119 = December High
1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low

Key Support Levels
1,101 = October High
1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low
1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level
1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target

The SPX, INDU and COMPQ pulled back this week in a bull flag pattern and formed a hammer on Thursday. The SPX and COMPQ bounced on Friday and closed above the body of Thursday’s hammer for confirmation. The bounce and close above Thursday’s close can be seen in the 5-day line chart.

(click image to enlarge)

Over the past three weeks buyers have entered at higher support levels. On February 5 buyers entered at the 1,044 support level. From February 9 to 12 buyers entered at the 1,060 support area. On Thursday February 25, buyers entered and created support at 1,086. Buyers’ willingness to enter at successively higher support levels and the hammer confirmation on Friday suggest that the rally of the past three weeks is likely to go higher.

The rising support levels of the past three weeks can be seen clearly in the 3-month line chart

(click image to enlarge)

Guidance:
Friday’s spinning top confirmed Thursday’s hammer on the SPX and COMPQ.

The SPX closed just above the 1,100 short term support level at 1,104. The February 19 high of 1,112 is short term resistance and 1,087 is the next level of short term support, which did hold on Thursday forming a higher low.

Thursday may have been the low of this pull back.

The short term 3-week trend is up.
The four-month trend is sideways.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules.

The counter trend pull back of the past week appears to have confirmed on Friday that it is a bull flag pull back.

Adjust your stops according to your rules for up and down trending trades.

AAPL +2.62
QCOM -0.49
GOOG +0.37
BIDU +9.81

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include WCRX, LBTYA, MICC, HANS, FSLR, AKAM, JBHT, STX, BIDU, HOLX, CMCSA, LINTA, RIMM,STLD, AAPL, PCLN, WYNN, FLIR, LOGI, GENZ, JOYG, URBN, VRTX, ISRG, DTV, CEPH, RYAAY, ESRX, KLAC, CERN, SIAL, MRVL, AMGN, FISV, DISH, PAYX, YH00, XRAY, LRCX, CTXS, GILD and CELG.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
ALGT, CBST, DLB, NFLX, AMED, CHL, BA, MCD, UAUA, AGU, CAM, CREE, VPRT, WHR, WLT, BDX, CAT, GR, ICE, PCLN, PCP, SPG, SWK, UNP, USO, V, BAC, DE, DHR, ESI, URE, HANS, JEC, ZION, WMT, FAS, GES, GMCR, SNDK, TDG, USD, UYG, X, DECK, FUQI, MELI, CEDC, POT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 11
FLS, HDB, HLF, MHS, MYGN, VAR, PWRD, CGA, IPI, FCX, ATI
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
BYI
Staying Below 30 DMA
BKC, GS, DOW, MOS, WAB, WFC, SYNA, TSL, AMX, FAZ, K, MA, ACN, UNG, ATW, HEAT, SWN, AMD, MON, WCG, GME

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 4 months, Up = 11 month
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Flat Open...

BMO – ES +1.50 and NQ +0.75 futures are slightly higher in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. AAPL +0.55, AMZN +0.05, GOOG +0.32 and BIDU +0.83 are slightly higher in pre-market trading.

The SP futures are slightly higher over night after Tuesday broke the low of the high day. Watch the 1,100 short term resistance area on the SPX. If price can not get and stay above this area expect price to move lower.


The Euro is UP 32 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting UP 47 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 8 cents in pre-market trading.

SPY is up 11 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is UP 1 cent in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

SPX
Support = 1,087
Resistance = 1,100 - 1,106

Trading Down: V, MCD, WFC

Trading Up: DECK, ICE, AGU, MELI, SWN, BUCY, HANS, K, BA, DE, GMCR, FUQI, MON, FCX, CAT, X, SPG, SNDK

Look at these Charts…
(click image to enlarge)


At the Open on Friday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FAS –
CF –
UAUA –
DOW –
X –
CREE –
ALGT –
ALTR –
NFLX –
RIMM –
BA –
STX –
DE –
WHR –
AMLN –
ZION –
STT –
GMCR –
IPI –
SHLD –
BUCY –
DHR –
V –
NVDA –
AMD –
PCLN –
DECK –
CAT –
PCP –
UNP –
POT –
AGU –
ACN –

Thursday, February 25, 2010

SPX Forms Hammer...

DJIA 10,321.03 -53.13 -0.51%
SP500 1,102.94 -2.30 -0.21%
COMPQ 2,234.22 -1.68 -0.08%
Russell 2000 630.46 +0.03 +0.00%

Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,517 1,143
Declining 1,514 1,511

Oil $78.17 -1.83
Gold $1,107.80 +11.30
SOX 338.39 -0.88
VIX 20.10 -0.17
 Index Direction Confirmation
VIX Down No – SPX
SOX Down Yes – COMPQ

Strongest Sectors: XLY +0.16%…XLP +0.07%...XLV +0.06%
Weakest Sectors: XLK -0.28%...XLF -0.27%...XLI -0.24%

Four of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Energy and Utilities were stronger than the SPX -0.21%.

Sector Watch
Up Trending: XLK, XLY, XLV, XLI
Horizontal Breakout:
Sideways: XLF, XLE, XLU, XLP, XLB
Down Trending:

Key Resistance Levels:
1,105 - 1,113 = November High
1,119 = December High
1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low

Key Support Levels
1,101 = October High
1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low
1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level

Guidance:

After opening lower on Thursday, the SPX formed a hammer that did not confirm Wednesday’s bullish harami. Wait to see if Friday gives confirmation.

The SPX closed just above the 1,100 short term support level at 1,103. Friday’s high of 1,112 is short term
resistance and 1,087 is the next level of short term support.

Thursday may have been the higher low of this pull back.
The short term trend is neutral.
The four-month trend is sideways.
The twelve-month trend is up.
Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules.

Trade the counter trend down if it continues. Stay alert to the potential of this counter trend move being a bull flag pull back.

Adjust your stops according to your rules for up and down trending trades.
AAPL +1.34

QCOM -0.69
GOOG -5.04
BIDU +3.40
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include ESRX, LINTA, HOLX, SRCL, IACI, ROST, LIFE, JBHT, JOYG, TEVA, ALTR, NIHD, SPLS, ILMN, COST, VRSN, SHLD, CTAS, HANS, BIDU, AAPL, NTAP, INTU, INFY, ORLY, FISV, FAST, ORCL, BBBY, URBN, XLNX, APOL, ERTS and ADSK.

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA
ALGT, CBST, DLB, NFLX, AMED, CHL, BA, MCD, UAUA, AGU, CAM, CREE, VPRT, WHR, WLT, BDX, CAT, GR, ICE, PCLN, PCP, SPG, SWK, UNP, USO, V, BAC, DE, DHR, ESI, URE, HANS, JEC, ZION, WMT, BYI, FAS, GES, GMCR, SNDK, TDG, USD, UYG, X
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
DECK, FUQI, MELI, CEDC, POT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
BKC, VAR, GS, DOW
Staying Below 30 DMA
FLS, MHS, MOS, WAB, IPI, FCX, WFC, ATI, SYNA, TSL, AMX, FAZ, K, MYGN, MA, ACN, UNG, HLF, ATW, HDB, HEAT, SWN, PWRD, AMD, CGA, MON, WCG, GME

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 4 months, Up = 11 month
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

BMO – ES -6.00 and NQ -9.00 futures are slightly higher in pre-market trading pointing to a slightly higher open. AAPL -1.13, AMZN -0.97, GOOG -2.47 and BIDU +0.03 are mixed in pre-market trading.


The SP futures are lower overnight. Watch the 1,092 short term support area (Tuesday's low) on the SPX. If price does not stay above this area expect price to move lower.

The Euro is down 50 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting down 52 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 4 cents in pre-market trading.

SPY is down 68 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 5 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.
SPX
Support = 1,087
Resistance = 1,100 - 1,106
Trading Down: FLS, PCLN, FAS, GME, FCX, POT, BAC, X, USO, CAT, TSL, ATI
Trading Up: BUCY, MHS, FAZ, MOS, NFLX

At the Open on Thursday

SPY –
QQQQ –
FAS –
CF –
UAUA –
DOW –
X –
CREE –
ALGT –
ALTR –
NFLX –
RIMM –
BA –
STX –
DE –
WHR –
AMLN –
ZION –
STT –
GMCR –
IPI –
SHLD –
BUCY –
DHR –
V –
NVDA –
AMD –
PCLN –
DECK –
CAT –
PCP –
UNP –
POT –
AGU –
ACN –

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

SPX Regains Most of Tuesday's Losses...

DJIA 10,374.16 +91.75 +0.89%
SP500 1,105.24 +10.64 +0.97%
COMPQ 2,235.90 +22.46 +1.01%
Russell 2000 630.43 +5.36 +0.86%

 
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 2,224 1,665
Declining 827 999

Oil $80.00 +1.14
Gold $1,096.50 -6.10
SOX 332.27 +6.40
VIX 20.27 -1.10

Index Direction Confirmation

VIX Down Yes – SPX
SOX Up Yes – COMPQ

Strongest Sectors: XLF +1.74%…XLY +1.30%...XLI +1.02%
Weakest Sectors: XLB -0.08%...XLU +0.03%...XLE +0.35%

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Technology were stronger than the SPX +0.97%.

Sector Watch
Up Trending: XLK, XLY, XLV, XLI
Horizontal Breakout:
Sideways: XLF, XLE, XLU, XLP, XLB
Down Trending:

Key Resistance Levels:
1,105 - 1,113 = November High
1,119 = December High

Key Support Levels
1,101 = October High
1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low
1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level
1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target

Guidance:

Wednesday formed an inside day and a bullish harami on the SPX and on many other charts. Confirmation is a close above the inside day or body of the bullish harami. Wednesday formed a lower high so confirmation is important here.

The SPX closed just above the 1,100 short term support level at 1,105. Friday’s high of 1,112 is short term resistance and 1,087 is the next level of short term support.

Without confirmation still look for a potential pull back to a higher low.

The short term trend is neutral.
The four-month trend is sideways.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules.

Trade the counter trend down. Stay alert to the potential of this counter trend move being a bull flag pull back.

Adjust your stops according to your rules for up and down trending trades.

AAPL +3.59
QCOM -0.50
GOOG -3.60
BIDU +3.77

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include ADSK, ALTR, ADBE, XLNX, BRCM, MXIM, RIMM, LINTA, HOLX, ADP, BRTX, ROST, NWSA, PCAR, JBHT, LLTC, AMAT, AMZN, NVDA, CERN, CTSH, CA, CTAS, SHLD, AAPL, ORLY, BBBY, SBUX, CMCSA, LRCX, INFY, JOYG, EBAY, PPDI, SRCL, LIFE, INTC, MCHP, ATVI,LBTYA, PDCO, YHOO, DELL, FISV, MICC, GENZ, ERTS, FLEX, APOL and INTU.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
ALGT, CBST, DLB, NFLX, AMED, CHL, BA, MCD, UAUA, AGU, BKC, CAM, CREE, VPRT, WHR, WLT, BDX, CAT, GR, ICE, PCLN, PCP, SPG, SWK, UNP, USO, V, BAC, DE, DHR, ESI, URE, DOW, HANS, JEC, ZION, WMT, BYI
Moving Above 30 DMA = 10
FAS, GES, GMCR, GS, SNDK, TDG, USD, UYG, VAR, X
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA
FLS, MHS, MOS, WAB, MELI, IPI, CEDC, POT, FCX, WFC, ATI, DECK, SYNA, TSL, AMX, FAZ, K, MYGN, MA, ACN, UNG, HLF, ATW, HDB, HEAT, FUQI, SWN, PWRD, AMD, CGA, MON, WCG, GME

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 4 months, Up = 11 month
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Flat Open...

BMO – ES +1.00 and NQ +4.25 futures are slightly higher in pre-market trading pointing to a slightly higher open. AAPL +1.00, AMZN +0.16, GOOG -2.00 and BIDU +0.37 are mixed in pre-market trading.
The SP futures are slightly higher over night after Tuesday broke the low of the high day. Watch the 1,100 short term resistance area on the SPX. If price can not get and stay above this area expect price to move lower.

The Euro is up 32 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting down 25 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 12 cents in pre-market trading.

SPY is up 51 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 8 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.
SPX
Support = 1,087
Resistance = 1,100 - 1,106

Trading Down: POT, MOS, FAZ, USO, FCX
Trading Up: BUCY, TSL, FAS, GS, BA, MCD, X, SNDK, CAT, NFLX, BAC, WFC, UYG, UNG
Look at these Charts…
(click image to enlarge)

















At the Open on Wednesday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FAS –
CF –
UAUA –
DOW –
X –
CREE –
ALGT –
ALTR –
NFLX –
RIMM –
BA –
STX –
DE –
WHR –
AMLN –
ZION –
STT –
GMCR –
IPI –
SHLD –
BUCY –
DHR –
V –
NVDA –
AMD –
PCLN –
DECK –
CAT –
PCP –
UNP –
POT –
AGU –
ACN –

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

SPX Pulls Back from Resistance...

DJIA 10,282.41 -100.41 -0.97%
SP500 1,094.60 -13.41 -1.21%
COMPQ 2,213.44 -28.59 -1.28%
Russell 2000 625.07 -7.18 +1.14%

Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 939 896
Declining 2,128 1,768

Oil $78.86 -1.45
Gold $1,102.60 -10.00
SOX 332.87 -9.68
VIX 21.37 +1.43

Index Direction Confirmation
VIX Up Yes – SPX
SOX Down Yes – COMPQ

Strongest Sectors: XLP -0.55%…XLY -0.60%...XLU -0.68%
Weakest Sectors: XLF -1.84%...XLE -1.66%...XLB -1.59%

All nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday. Financials, Energy, Materials, Industrials and Technology were weaker than the SPX -1.21%.

Sector Watch
Up Trending: XLK, XLY, XLV, XLI
Horizontal Breakout:
Sideways: XLF, XLE, XLU, XLP, XLB
Down Trending:

Key Resistance Levels:
1,101 = October High
1,105 - 1,113 = November High
1,119 = December High
Key Support Levels
1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low
1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level
1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target
1,044 - 1,050 = Oct 08 High

The SPX, INDU, COMPQ and RUT all broke the low of the high day giving the potential exit signal for bullish short term trades and potential entry signal for short term bearish counter trend trades. The SPX broke short term horizontal support and closed 1,094.
Financial, Energy and Material stocks led the market lower on Tuesday with MELI, HEAT, USD, ATI, FAS, BUCY, X, SNDK FUQI, ZION, WLT, MHS, FCX, UYG and CREE falling more than 3% each.

FAZ, WCG, BYI, BKC, BDX, UAUA and MCD moved higher today.

Guidance:
Tuesday was the classic break the low of the high day exit for short term trades and a classic entry for short term counter trend bearish trades.

The 1,100 short term support level was broken today and 1,087 is the next level of short term support.

Support was broken and we hope you did protect your profits. Now look for a pull back to a potential higher low.

The short term trend is down.
The four-month trend is sideways.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules.

If you trade the counter trend down, stay alert to the potential of this counter trend move forming a bull flag pull back.

Adjust your stops according to your rules for up and down trending trades.

AAPL -3.35
QCOM -0.47
GOOG -7.73
BIDU -5.45

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include EXPD, APOL, WYNN, IACI, CEPH, DISH, VRSN, EXPE, JBHT, XRAY, RYAAY, HSIC, HOLX, CTSH, ROST, CMCSA, ORLY, CTXS and COST.

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
ALGT, CBST, DLB, NFLX, AMED, CHL, BA, MCD, UAUA, AGU, BKC, CAM, CREE, VPRT, WHR, WLT, BDX, CAT, GR, ICE, PCLN, PCP, SPG, SWK, UNP, USO, V, BAC, DE, DHR, ESI, URE, DOW, HANS, JEC, ZION, WMT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1BYI
Moving Below 30 DMA = 20
FLS, GES, GMCR, MHS, MOS, TDG, VAR, WAB, FAS, UYG, X, USD, MELI, IPI, CEDC, SNDK, POT, FCX, WFC, ATI
Staying Below 30 DMA
DECK, SYNA, TSL, AMX, FAZ, K, MYGN, MA, ACN, UNG, HLF, ATW, HDB, GS, HEAT, FUQI, SWN, PWRD, AMD, CGA, MON, WCG, GME


Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 4 months, Up = 11 month
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Slightly Lower Open...

BMO – ES -3.50 and NQ -5.75 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. AAPL -0.71, AMZN +0.00, GOOG -1.30 and BIDU -3.15 are mostly lower in pre-market trading.

The SP futures are slightly lower over night watch for a potential break of Monday’s low. Stay with the short term trend as long as it continues. Monday is the new high day.  Short term traders may see an exit on some charts today if the market pulls back into a bull flag pattern.

The Euro is down 38 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting down 1.60 in electronic trading. XLE is up 10 cents in pre-market trading.

SPY is down 33 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 6 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

SPX
Support = 1,100…1,087
Resistance = 1,106 - 1,117

Trading Down: MELI, WLT, FAS, MHS, POT, WHR, X, FCX, USD, NFLX, TSL, SNDK, CREE, WMT, MON, CAT, WFC
Trading Up: AMED, MCD, JEC, FAZ

Look at these Charts…
(click image to enlarge)















 

At the Open on Tuesday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FAS –
CF –
UAUA –
DOW –
X –
CREE –
ALGT –
ALTR –
NFLX –
RIMM –
BA –
STX –
DE –
WHR –
AMLN –
ZION –
STT –
GMCR –
IPI –
SHLD –
BUCY –
DHR –
V –
NVDA –
AMD –
PCLN –
DECK –
CAT –
PCP –
UNP –
POT –
AGU –
ACN –

Monday, February 22, 2010

SPX Pauses at Resistance...

DJIA 10,383.35 -18.97 -0.18%
SP500 1,108.01 -1.16 -0.10%
COMPQ 2,242.03 -1.84 -0.08%
Russell 2000 632.63 +0.63 +0.10%

Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,519 1,429
Declining 1,541 1,268

Oil $80.25 +0.19
Gold $1,112.60 -8.70
SOX 342.55 -0.99
VIX 19.94 -0.08

Index Direction Confirmation
VIX Down No – SPX
SOX Down Yes – COMPQ

Strongest Sectors: XLF +1.31%…XLI +0.07%...XLP +0.00%
Weakest Sectors: XLE -1.38%...XLU -0.54%...XLB -0.43%

Two of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Financials, Industrials, Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX -0.10%.

Sector Watch
Up Trending: XLK, XLY, XLV, XLI
Horizontal Breakout:
Sideways: XLF, XLE, XLU, XLP, XLB
Down Trending:

Key Resistance Levels:
1,105 - 1,113 = November High
1,119 = December High
1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low

Key Support Levels
1,101 = October High
1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low
1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level

The SPX, INDU and COMPQ formed spinning tops above their 30 DMA as the broad indices were near unchanged. The SPX closed at 1,108 in the area of its horizontal resistance area,

Financial stocks led the market today as RF, PNC, KEY, WFC, ZION, BAC, JPM, USB, SPG, C and MS all moved more than 1% for the day.

Energy stocks were weak keeping the SPX just below even for the day.

CREE, X and STX moved slightly higher while BUCY was down slightly on Monday.

Guidance:
Monday is the new high day in the recent support bounce. 1,100 is the short term support level, just below Monday’s low. Short term resistance is 1,115. If resistance is broken look for a move to the next resistance level in the 1,130 area.

If support is broken protect your profits and look for a pull back to a higher low.

The short term trend is up.
The four-month trend is sideways.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules.

Be alert on short term trades to the potential for the formation of a bull flag pull back; raise your stops according to your rules.

AAPL -1.25
QCOM -0.58
GOOG +2.03
BIDU +7.00

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include LBTYA, GRMN, ORCL, TEVA, APOL, MICC, BIDU, JBHT, WYNN, CHRW, CMSCA, STX, VRSN, DISH, PDCO, EXPD, SHLD, RYAAY, SRCL, CERN, HOLX, NIHD, CEPH, FAST, STLD, AMZN, GOOG, ADSK, MXIM, LIFE, INTC, DTV, PAYX, PPDI and NVDA.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
ALGT, CBST, DLB, NFLX, AMED, CHL, BA, GMCR, MCD, UAUA, AGU, BKC, CAM, CEDC, CREE, VPRT, WHR, WLT, POT, BDX, BUCY, CAT, GR, ICE, MOS, PCLN, PCP, SPG, SWK, UNP, USD, USO, V, BAC, DE, DHR, ESI, MHS, SNDK, URE, DOW, FLS, GES, HANS, JEC, MELI, TDG, X, IPI, FCX, ZION
Moving Above 30 DMA = 6
FAS, UYG, VAR, WAB, WFC, WMT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
DECK, SYNA
Staying Below 30 DMA
TSL, AMX, FAZ, K, MYGN, MA, BYI, ACN, UNG, HLF, ATW, HDB, GS, HEAT, FUQI, SWN, PWRD, AMD, CGA, MON, WCG, GME

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 4 months, Up = 11 month
Short Term
Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

1:05 pm ET - Financials, XLF +0.90%, are leading the market this morning while Energy, XLE -1.27% is weighing on the market...SPY -0.01% is near even...for many stocks, Monday is the high day so pay attention to the chart and trade according to your rules... BMO – ES +4.00 and NQ +10.75 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +0.48, AMZN -0.11, GOOG +6.02 and BIDU +1.55 are mostly higher in pre-market trading. As I stated Friday morning I expected short term support to hold on the SPX, it did and the SPX closed at 1,109. The 1,115 area is horizontal resistance and if broken look for the SPX to continue its support bounce. Stay with the short term trend as long as it continues. Friday is the new high day. You may have noticed a large number of Dave’s C Patterns on stock charts and the indices. For those not familiar a C Pattern is an intermediate term up trend that has hit resistance pulled back for four weeks fallen below its 30 DMA and now is breaking out of its 30 DMA to the upside. X in this morning’s charts is a good example. Generally the C Pattern will lead to a continuation of the intermediate term trend, although the follow through is not always immediate. The Euro is up 5 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting up 22 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 11 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is up 37 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 4 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,100…1,087 Resistance = 1,115...1,130 Trading Down: BA, UNG, SPG Trading Up: PCLN, MA, BUCY, X, FLS, FAS, GS, MOS, USD, STT, CAT, CREE, WCG, MELI, POT, FCX Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – CF – UAUA – DOW – X – CREE – ALGT – ALTR – NFLX – RIMM – BA – STX – DE – WHR – AMLN – ZION – STT – GMCR – IPI – SHLD – BUCY – DHR – V – NVDA – AMD – PCLN – DECK – CAT – PCP – UNP – POT – AGU – ACN –

Friday, February 19, 2010

SPX Rallies After Fed Raises Discount Rate...

DJIA 10,402.35 +9.45 +0.09% SP500 1,109.17 +4.42 +0.22% COMPQ 2,243.87 +2.16 +0.10% Russell 2000 631.62 +2.30 +0.37% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,798 1,405 Declining 1,235 1,249 Oil $80.06 +0.68 Gold $1,121.30 +3.30 SOX 343.54 +1.02 VIX 20.02 -0.61 Index Direction Confirmation VIX Down Yes – SPX SOX Up Yes – COMPQ Strongest Sectors: XLU +1.40%…XLB +0.56%...XLF +0.56% Weakest Sectors: XLK -0.27%...XLV +0.00%...XLP +0.22% Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Utilities, Materials, Financials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples were stronger than the SPX +0.22%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLY, XLV, XLI Horizontal Breakout: Sideways: XLF, XLE, XLU, XLP, XLB Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,119 = December High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target SP futures moved lower Thursday after the Fed announced after the close they are raising the discount rate to banks by ¼% from 0.50% to 0.75% effective Friday. By Friday morning futures had moved from being down 12 point to down 3 points. Futures and cash indexes moved higher Friday morning and then pulled back in the afternoon while still finishing up for the day. Tech stocks were the weakest sector Friday after DELL reported earnings with lower profit margins. Material, Financial and Transportation stocks performed well in our watch list including: X, ZION, STT, UAUA, UNP, PCP, VPRT, CREE, BA and DECK moved higher on Friday. NDX stocks INTU, EBAY, MICC and ADBE also had nice chart moves on Friday. The SPX and other broad indexes finished a strong short term trend week following the prior weeks support bounce and bullish divergence we alerted you to in several posts before this past weeks three day weekend. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Friday is the new high day in the recent support bounce. 1,100 is the short term support level, just below Friday’s low. Short term resistance is 1,115. If resistance is broken look for a move to the next resistance level in the 1,130 area. The short term trend is up. The four-month trend is sideways. The twelve-month trend is up. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. Continue to trade the short term trend and raise your stops. AAPL -1.25 QCOM -0.22 GOOG -2.45 BIDU +2.54 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include INTU, TEVA, EBAY, MICC, DTV, ADBE, JBHT, CMCSA, LINTA, SPLS, CTAS, LRCX, SRCL, LBTYA, ORLY, IACI, CHRW, FISV, BIIB, EXPD, VRTX, KLAC, ERTS, ADP, PDCO, HANS, WCRX, NIHD, CHKP, XLNX, GENX, FLIR, FLEX, SHLD, AKAM, VRSN, CERN, BBBY, FAST, NWSA, ISRG, MCHP and BIDU. Stocks to Watch on Monday Holding Above 30 DMA ALGT, CBST, DLB, NFLX, AMED, CHL, BA, GMCR, MCD, UAUA, AGU, BKC, CAM, CEDC, CREE, VPRT, WHR, WLT, POT, BDX, BUCY, CAT, GR, ICE, MOS, PCLN, PCP, SPG, SWK, UNP, USD, USO, V, BAC, DE, DECK, DHR, ESI, MHS, SNDK, URE, DOW, FLS, GES, HANS, JEC, MELI Moving Above 30 DMA = 6 SYNA, TDG, X, IPI, FCX, ZION Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 VAR, TSL Staying Below 30 DMA AMX, FAZ, WMT, K, MYGN, WFC, MA, BYI, ACN, UNG, FAS, HLF, UYG, ATW, HDB, GS, HEAT, FUQI, SWN, WAB, PWRD, AMD, CGA, MON, WCG, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 4 months, Up = 11 month Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Lower Open oon Options Expiration Friday...

10: 33 am ET - SPY is a white candle again as it continnues to fluctuate between 110.40 - 110.95...good old expiration Friday volatility... 10:10 am ET - UAUA is forming a classic bull flag... 10:05 am ET - SPY has pulled back and below its open delivering option expiration Friday intra-day volatility...currently for a bearish harami and still above the high of the low day...STT is having a strong morning... 9:45 am ET - SPY and many stocks are rising above their open and gaining strength... 9:35 am ET - at the open ALGT, X, FAZ, UAUA, TDG, IPI, BUCY, AMED, MOS UNP BUI MCK VPRT, BA, DHR, WAB, SNDK and DECK are trading higher...TSL, ESI, HEAT, UNG, CHL, ACN, ATW, FUQI, AMX, BDX, V, VAR, MELI, CBST are trading lower... BMO – ES -3.50 and NQ -3.50 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. AAPL -0.76, AMZN +0.27, GOOG -0.58 and BIDU -1.10 are mostly lower in pre-market trading. The big news is DELL -0.68, -4.71% reported 0.28 vs. estimates of 0.27 but missed gross margin estimates. Tech stocks which were lower after the close in sympathy are not as low in pre-market trading as in after hours trading yesterday. Maybe bigger news is the Fed raised the discount rates to banks ¼% from 0.50% to 0.75%. SP futures were down more than 12 points after Thursday’s close on the news but have recovered to dow -3.50. The Fed news is actually positive as I stated last night as it indicates that financial stability is improving. I am not surprised that futures have rallied from their initial lows. The SPX closed at 1,106 which is horizontal resistance will open lower on the Fed news…I expect short term support to hold but be prepared in price move lower and follow your exit rules. Thursday was the high day. Short term support is Tuesday’s S1. The Euro is up 20 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting up 5 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 29 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is down 30 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 7 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,087…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,106 - 1,117 Trading Down: ESI, BUCY, CHL,MA, TSL, CAN, SYNA, CREE, FAS, V, ATW, GS, FLS, WLT, SNDK, USD Trading Up: MOS, POT, FAZ, USO Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – CF – UAUA – ALGT – ALTR – NFLX – CREE – RIMM – BA – STX – DE – WHR – AMLN – ZION – STT – GMCR – DOW – X – IPI – SHLD – BUCY – DHR – V – NVDA – AMD – PCLN – DECK – CAT – PCP – UNP – POT – AGU – ACN –

Thursday, February 18, 2010

SPX Moves Higher...

DJIA 10,392.90 +83.66 +0.81% SP500 1,106.75 +7.24 +0.66% COMPQ 2,241.71 +15.42 +0.69% Russell 2000 629.32 +4.49 +0.72% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,112 1,562 Declining 936 1,083 Oil $79.06 +0.82 Gold $1,118.00 -1.50 SOX 342.52 +0.98 VIX 20.63 -1.09 Index Direction Confirmation VIX Down Yes – SPX SOX Up Yes – COMPQ Strongest Sectors: XLB +1.07%…XLI +0.91%...XLK +0.64% Weakest Sectors: XLV +0.48%...XLU +0.55%...XLE +0.56% All nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Materials and Industrials were stronger than the SPX +0.66%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLY, XLV, XLI Horizontal Breakout: Sideways: XLF, XLE, XLU, XLP, XLB Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,101 = October High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,119 = December High Key Support Levels 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,044 - 1,050 = Oct 08 High The SPX, INDU and COMPQ moved above their 30 DMA. The SPX closed at 1,106 just above its 1,105 horizontal resistance area, Many individual stocks like CREE, CTXS, GILD, NFLX and STX also experienced horizontal breakouts. PCLN +9.43% gapped and moved higher after better than forecast earnings report. After the close on Thursday, DELL -0.84, -5.88% reported earnings with lower than expected profit margins. Many tech stocks were trading lower in after-hours trading in sympathy with the report. The Fed announced after the close they are raising the discount rate to banks by ¼% from 0.50% to 0.75% effective Friday. While this is actually positive news as it reflects improvement in the financial stability of banks, the S&P futures market reacted by moving 12 points lower. This could lead to a lower open on Friday, February options expiration day. Here’s a closing look at our Thursday stock charts SNDK, DOW, STX and CGA from this morning
Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Today is the new high day in the recent support bounce. Continue to watch the S1 level of Tuesday’s large white candle as short term support on the SPX.
Watch for a lower open on Friday as an initial reaction to the Fed increasing the discount rate. Follow your rules if the pull back breaks short term support. The short term trend is up. The four-month trend is sideways. The twelve-month trend is up. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. If you have not yet been stopped out of your up trending positions, continue to trade the trend and raise your stops. AAPL +0.37 QCOM +0.38 GOOG +5.01 BIDU +10.08 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include PCLN, EXPE, DTV, STX, CTXS, ADBE, STLD, HANS, FLEX, GRMN, JOYG, DELL, BIDU, LINTA, MXIM, URBN, XLNX, FSLR, GILD, CA, APOL, MICC, NIHD, AMZN, ALTR, ORCL, CELG, INTU, RIMM, FAST, DISH, VRTX, FWLT, CTAS, CERN, ESRX, SYMC, HOLX, ISRG and QCOM. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Holding Above 30 DMA ALGT, CBST, DLB, NFLX, AMED, CHL, BA, GMCR, MCD, UAUA, AGU, BKC, CAM, CEDC, CREE, VPRT, WHR, WLT, POT, BDX, BUCY, CAT, GR, ICE, MOS, PCLN, PCP, SPG, SWK, TSL, UNP, USD, USO, V, BAC, DE, DECK, DHR, ESI, MHS, SNDK, URE, VAR Moving Above 30 DMA = 6 DOW, FLS, GES, HANS, JEC, MELI Moving Below 30 DMA = 4 AMX, FAZ, WMT, ZION Staying Below 30 DMA K, MYGN, TDG, WFC, MA, BYI, ACN, UNG, FAS, HLF, SYNA, UYG, X, ATW, HDB, GS, HEAT, FCX, FUQI, IPI, SWN, WAB, PWRD, AMD, CGA, MON, WCG, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 4 months, Up = 11 month Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Mixed Point to a Flat Open...

BMO – ES -2.00 and NQ +1.50 futures are mixed in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. AAPL -0.17, AMZN +0.04, GOOG -0.40 and BIDU +0.48 are mixed in pre-market trading. The big news this morning is PCLN +13.97, +6.56% reported 1.99 vs. estimates of 1.68. The SPX closed at 1,099 which is horizontal resistance be prepared for a pause or pull back. Wednesday was the high day. Short term support is Tuesday’s S1. The Euro is down 20 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting down 47 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 7 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is down 5 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 4 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,087…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,106 - 1,117 Trading Down: WCG, WMT, GS, FCX, CHL, FAS, USO Trading Up: PCLN, SWN, DE, HDB, POT, GMCR, FAZ, CAM Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – CF – UAUA – ALGT – ALTR – NFLX – CREE – RIMM – BA – STX – DE – WHR – AMLN – ZION – STT – GMCR – DOW – X – IPI – SHLD – BUCY – DHR – V – NVDA – AMD – PCLN – DECK – CAT – PCP – UNP – POT – AGU – ACN –

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

SPX Closes at 1,099...

DJIA 10,309.24 + 40.43 +0.39% SP500 1,099.51 + 4.64 +0.42% COMPQ 2,226.29 + 12.10 +0.55% RUT 2000 624.83 + 3.99 +0.64% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,050 1,577 Declining 988 1,069 Oil $77.33 +0.19 Gold $1,119.50 +0.20 SOX 341.54 +0.58 VIX 21.72 -0.53 Index Direction Confirmation VIX Down Yes - SPX SOX Up Yes - COMPQ Strongest Sectors: XLI +0.85%…XLY +0.81%...XLV +0.77% Weakest Sectors: XLU -0.41%...XLE -0.14%...XLB +0.06% Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare and Consumer Staples were stronger than the SPX +0.42%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLY, XLV, XLI Horizontal Breakout: Sideways: XLF, XLE, XLU, XLP, XLB Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,101 = October High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,119 = December High Key Support Levels 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance The SPX and other broad indexes formed small white candles closing at 1,099 which is the horizontal resistance area of 1,100 to 1,105. As we posted last night, “Don’t be surprised to see a pause as it moves toward this level.” It did exactly that today. CREE is at horizontal resistance and if you didn’t get the support bounce, evaluate if a horizontal breakout occurs. NIHD is in a bull flag pull back. DE gapped higher and closed below its open. DHR, DECK and ESI continued their support bounce. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Today is the new high day in the recent support bounce. If the 1,105 resistance is broken look for price to continue higher to the next resistance level. Continue to watch the S1 level of Tuesday’s large white candle as short term support on the SPX if a pull back occurs. The short term trend is up. The four-month trend is sideways. The twelve-month trend is up. The cautionary bear flag pattern is off if the SPX breaks and holds above 1,105. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. While a short term break of support is looking less likely don’t ignore that possibility. If you have not yet been stopped out of your up trending positions, continue to trade the trend and raise your stops. AAPL -0.85 QCOM +0.41 GOOG -3.09 BIDU -1.95 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include GILD, SHLD, VRTX, ADSK, DTV, ORLY, FSLR, VRSN, ISRG, BIIB, CELG, ERTS, FLEX, DISH, JBHT, ESRX, CEPH, ADBE, ORCL, JOYG, ROST, STX, LBTYA, ATVI, LIFE, LINTA, SBUX, URBN, HANS, SPLS, FLIR, SRCL, QCOM, IACI, RYAAY, LOGI, NVDA, CERN and MSFT. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Holding Above 30 DMA ALGT, CBST, ZION, FAZ, DLB, NFLX, AMED, CHL, BA, GMCR, MCD, UAUA, AGU, BKC, CAM, CEDC, CREE, VPRT, WHR, WLT, POT, AMX, BDX, BUCY, CAT, GR, ICE, MOS, PCLN, PCP, SPG, TSL, UNP, USD, USO, V, WMT Moving Above 30 DMA = 9 BAC, DE, DECK, DHR, ESI, MHS, SNDK, URE, VAR Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA K, MYGN, TDG, WFC, HANS, JEC, MA, BYI, ACN, FLS, UNG, DOW, FAS, HLF, SYNA, UYG, X, ATW, HDB, GS, HEAT, FCX, FUQI, IPI, SWN, WAB, PWRD, AMD, CGA, GES, MON, WCG, GME, MELI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 4 months, Up = 11 month Short Term Market Trend: Up

DE Beats...Futures Point to a Higher Open...

BMO – ES +6.00 and NQ +7.25 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +0.70, AMZN +0.40, GOOG +2.07 and BIDU +0.53 are higher in pre-market trading. The news this morning is DE +4.23, 8.03% in pre-market trading, which reported 57 cents EPS vs. estimates of 19 cents.
The Euro is down 24 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting up 55 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 27 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is up 64 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 11 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,087…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,106 - 1,117 Trading Down: Trading Up: DE, POT, FAS, SNDK, CAT, SWN, GS, BUCY, PCLN, JEC, MOS, AGU, FCX, CHL, MCD, X Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – BA – IPI – CF – DOW – UAUA – X – ALGT – ALTR – GMCR – SHLD – CREE – STX – ZION – STT – RIMM – BUCY – DHR – V – NVDA – WHR – AMD – PCLN – DECK – NFLX – CAT – DE – PCP – UNP – STLD – AMLN – POT – AGU – ACN –

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Monster SPX Rally as Support Bounce Continues...

DJIA + 169.67 +1.68% SP500 + 19.36 +1.80% COMPQ + 30.66 +1.40% Russell 2000 + 10.12 +1.66% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,537 1,945 Declining 517 764 Oil $77.01 +2.88 Gold $1,119.30 +29.80 SOX 340.96 +5.01 VIX 22.25 -0.48 Index Direction Confirmation VIX Down Yes - SPX SOX Up Yes - COMPQ Strongest Sectors: XLB +2.52%…XLI +2.36%...XLE +2.36% Weakest Sectors: XLV +0.87%...XLP +1.02%...XLK +1.50% All nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Materials, Industrials, Energy and Financials were stronger than the SPX +1.80%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLY, XLV, XLI Horizontal Breakout: Sideways: XLF, XLE, XLU, XLP, XLB Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,101 = October High 1,105 = Feb 2 High 1,113 = November High Key Support Levels 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,044 - 1050 = October 2008 Horizontal Resistance The SPX and other broad indexes formed large white candles as last week’s support bounce followed through heading into options expiration this Friday. Price action is confirming the bullish divergence we alerted you to in the SPX and many other stocks last week. NIHD +2.02, +5.60%, the leading NDX 100 stock received an upgrade to Buy from Neutral from B of A Merrill. NIHD gapped above horizontal resistance and closed just below.
CREE our recent virtual trade homework was stopped out if you used a hard price stop but was not stopped if you used an end of day stop.
Dave's Insight: Remember if you get stopped out and the stock gives you another entry signal, get in a new trade. Did you enter a new trade? The ideal re-entry was Tuesday, Wednesday or not later than Thursday morning. (click image to enlarge)
Last night and this morning’s highlighted charts had a strong performance today. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) (click image to enlarge)
Guidance: The SPX closed above its 10 and 20 DMA as it moved toward recent resistance of 1,105. Don’t be surprised to see a pause as it moves toward this level. Watch the S1 level of today’s large white candle as short term support. The short term trend is up. The four-month trend is sideways. The twelve-month trend is up. Last week’s growing bullish technical evidence was confirming today. It would be wise to take advantage of a support bounce continuation. The cautionary bear flag pattern is off if the SPX breaks and holds above 1,105. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. While a short term break of support is looking less likely don’t ignore that possibility. If you have not yet been stopped out of your up trending positions, continue to trade the trend and raise your stops. AAPL +3.02 QCOM +0.18 GOOG +8.18 BIDU +1.47 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include NIHD, STX, FSLR, ADSK, JOYG, EXPE, KLAC, FWLT, AMAT, DISH, MRVL, EBAY, EXPD, BBBY, WYNN, PDCO, LOGI, STLD, FAST, INFY, NTAP, GRMN, SPLX, SHLD, NWSA, ALTR, COST, MXIM, DELL, CMCSA, SRCL, BRCM and MSFT. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Holding Above 30 DMA ALGT, CBST, ZION, FAZ, DLB, NFLX, AMED, CHL, BA, GMCR, MCD, UAUA, AGU, BKC, CAM, CEDC, CREE, VPRT, WHR, WLT, POT Moving Above 30 DMA = 15 AMX, BDX, BUCY, CAT, GR, ICE, MOS, PCLN, PCP, SPG, TSL, UNP, USD, USO, V, Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA VAR, K, MYGN, TDG, WFC, WMT, ESI, SNDK, DECK, HANS, JEC, MA, BYI, ACN, FLS, UNG, DE, DOW, FAS, HLF, SYNA, UYG, X, ATW, HDB, MHS, URE, GS, HEAT, FCX, BAC, DHR, FUQI, IPI, SWN, WAB, PWRD, AMD, CGA, GES, MON, WCG, GME, MELI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 3 months, Up = 11 month Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Higher Open

9:32 am ET - The SPX is making a higher high than any day last week...obviously there is also a higher low than Friday at the open this morning.... BMO – ES +4.25 and NQ +6.25 futures are up before the market open pointing to a higher open. AAPL +1.12, AMZN +1.22, GOOG +2.24 and BIDU +3.80 are higher in pre-market trading. The SPX which until last had been in a short term down trend for four weeks bounced in a bear flag pattern last week. The SPX did not penetrate its bear flag support on Friday in spite of the news. Pre-market trading indicates a continuation of last week’s support bounce. Many individual stocks have formed small double bottoms or other reversal patterns. Look for the SPX to move back above its 10 DMA at the open. The Euro is up 60 pips in overnight trading. Oil is up 1.20 in electronic trading. SPY is up 72 cents. XLF is up 9 cents. Continue to watch XLF as a key to a support bounce rally in the SPX as it is doing this morning. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. Remember our vitural homework on CREE...I'll have more to say on that later today... SPX Support = 1,063, 1,050 – 1,044 Resistance = 1,079, 1,087 Trading Down: Trading Up: POT, AGU, FCX, BUCY, FAS, MOS, SWN, V, GS, X, BA, WLT, USO, CAT, ICE, TSL In addition to the charts RIMM, WLT, TSL, BUCY in last night’s post, Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – BA – CF – DOW – UAUA – ALGT – ALTR – GMCR – SHLD – CREE – STX – ZION – STT – NTRS – DECK – ISRG – BAC – INFY – X – AAPL – AKAM – AMZN – NVDA – SNDK – BUCY – PCLN – ACN – AGU – DE – DHR – MA – PCP – POT –

Friday, February 12, 2010

RUT and NASDQ Rises While SPX Pulls Back...

DJIA 10,099.14 -45.05 -0.44% SP500 1,075.51 -2.96 -0.27% COMPQ 2,183.53 +6.12 +0.28% Russell 2000 610.72 +5.26 +0.87% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,614 1,576 Declining 1,393 1,076 Oil $74.13 -1.15 Gold $1,089.50 -4.70 SOX 332.84 +1.80 VIX 22.73 -1.23 Index Direction Confirmation VIX Down Yes – SPX SOX Up Yes – COMPQ Strongest Sectors: XLK +0.19%…XLF +0.07%...XLE +0.04% Weakest Sectors: XLI -0.79%...XLU -0.38%...XLV -0.23% Three of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Technology, Financials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Materials and Healthcare were stronger than the SPX -0.27%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: Sideways: XLF, XLE Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,101 = October High Key Support Levels 1,044 - 1,050 = Oct 08 High This past saw wide daily trading ranges on the SPX and other indexes while at the same time bouncing off support and heading higher. On the weekly chart the SPX formed a bullish harami after four straight black candles or down weeks. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) We like the look of these charts going into options expiration week. Watch for continued support bounces from these stocks. (click image to enlarge) Guidance: The SPX closed just below its 10 DMA, while both the COMPQ and RUT closed above. The short term trend is up. The four-month trend is sideways. The twelve-month trend is up. Growing bullish technical evidence suggests it would be wise to prepare for a support bounce continuation. A support bounce following a four week down trend is going to look like a bear flag pattern, however keep in mind that many stock charts have been forming reversal patterns including a short term double bottom. Continue to focus on and trade setups in the direction of the trend on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. Stay prepared however for a break of support. If you have not yet been stopped out of your up trending positions, continue to raise your stops. AAPL +1.71 QCOM +0.83 GOOG -3.28 BIDU +0.54 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include RIMM, NIHD, QCOM, INTC, APOL, STLD, MRVL, NWSA, NVDA, FSLR, ILMN, LINTA, TEVA, BRCM, ALRT, AAPL, GENZ, DISH, LRCX, VRTX, MXIM,ORLY, KLAC, ISRG, HSIC, GILD, LIFE, ROST and XLNX. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Holding Above 30 DMA ALGT, CBST, ZION, FAZ, DLB, NFLX, AMED, CHL, BA, GMCR, MCD, UAUA, AGU, BKC, CAM, CEDC, CREE, V, VPRT, WHR, WLT Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 POT Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA VAR, K, MYGN, TDG, WFC, WMT, GR, ESI, SNDK, DECK, HANS, JEC, MA, BYI, ACN, FLS, UNG, BUCY, DE, DOW, FAS, HLF, SYNA, UNP, UYG, X, ATW, HDB, MHS, MOS, PCP, URE, GS, HEAT, CAT, FCX, BAC, DHR, FUQI, ICE, IPI, SWN, USO, WAB, USD, PWRD, AMD, AMX, CGA, GES, MON, TSL, BDX, WCG, SPG, GME, MELI, PCLN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 3 months, Up = 10 month Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Lower Open....

10:30 am ET - X is moving above Thursday's high... 10:15 am ET - after an early sell that has NOT yet created an entry signal on the SPX bear flag, prices are ralliying from this morning's low but still well below Thursday's close...all sectors are lower...advancing issues are growing...the NDX 100 which only had five positive stocks 30 minutes ago now has 16 stocks in positive territory including: RIMM, NIHD, QCOM, MRVL, NVDA, BRCM, GENZ, BIDU and STLD...X has turned positive and many stocks which opened lower and are still negative for the day are above their open and their candles have turned white.... 9:42 am ET - Apparently China hiked it deposit-reserve ratio over night in an effort to slow growth, which caught traders by surprise. Traders are selling stocks and buying dollars. The Euro is down 135 pips. SPY -1.44 is approaching the low of Thursday which is the high day in the recent bear flag and could generate an entry signal if it continues to go down. Watch for a potential bearish entry signal... BMO – ES -11.50 and NQ -19.00 futures down before the market open pointing to a lower open. AAPL -0.90, AMZN -1.19, GOOG -3.38 and BIDU -3.86 are lower in pre-market trading. The SPX which has been in a down trend for the past four weeks has been in a bear flag rally this week. After a strong up day Thursday futures point to a lower open which if pushes lower after the market opens could create and entry signal for a bear flagwe’ll see how cash markets trade. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,050 – 1,044 Resistance = 1,071, 1,079 At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – BA – CF – DOW – UAUA – ALGT – ALTR – GMCR – SHLD – CREE – STX – ZION – STT – NTRS – DECK – ISRG – BAC – INFY – X – AAPL – AKAM – AMZN – NVDA – SNDK – BUCY – PCLN – ACN – AGU – DE – DHR – MA – PCP – POT –

Thursday, February 11, 2010

SPX Rises...

DJIA 10,144.19 +105.81 +1.05% SP500 1,078.47 +10.34 +0.97% COMPQ 2,177.41 +29.45 +1.38% Russell 2000 605.46 +9.64 +1.62% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,343 1,989 Declining 696 686 Oil $75.28 +0.76 Gold $1,094.20 +18.40 SOX 331.04 +7.64 VIX 23.96 -1.44 Index Direction Confirmation VIX Down Yes – SPX SOX Up Yes – COMPQ Strongest Sectors: XLB +1.70%…XLE +1.70%...XLI +1.50% Weakest Sectors: XLF +0.22%...XLU +0.59%...XLV +0.68% All nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Materials, Energy, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Technology were stronger than the SPX +0.97%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: Sideways: XLF, XLE Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,101 = October High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High Key Support Levels 1,044 - 1,050 = Oct 08 High The question I posed on Wednesday was who is expecting a strong rally now? What a difference a day a day can make. Many stocks in our watch list had strong gains bouncing up from support on Thursday. Guidance: The SPX bounced up from support and crossed its 10 DMA on Thursday and had in highest close in more than week. The SPX formed a bullish engulfing pattern on Wednesday’s spinning top. The short term trend is up. The four-month trend is sideways. The twelve-month trend is up. With Thursday’s support bounce more stocks are beginning to cross above their 30 DMA and resume their up trend. Continue to focus on and trade setups in the direction of the trend on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. Stay prepared however for a break of support. Growing bullish technical evidence suggests it would be wise to prepare for a potential support bounce similar to the bounces in July and November of last year. See the above charts. If you have not yet been stopped out of your up trending positions, continue to raise your stops. AAPL +3.55 QCOM +0.58 GOOG +1.95 BIDU +5.33 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: ATVI, WYNN, JOYG, MRVL, NVDA, STLD, FSLR, NIHD, LRCX, RIMM, ILMN, YHOO, ALTR, PPDI, NWSA, NTAP, TEVA, ADSK, CHRW, ISRG, CERN, BIIB, FLEX, AMZN, PCAR, BRCM,KLAC, BBBY, INFY, XLNX, ESRX, LLTC, MICC, VRSN, LINTA, FISV, MCHP, ROST, AMAT, WCRX, INTC, FWLT, AAPL, CTSH, GILD, AKAM, GRMN, SPLS and VRTX. Stocks to Watch on Friday Holding Above 30 DMA ALGT, CBST, ZION, FAZ, DLB, NFLX, AMED, CHL, BA, GMCR, MCD, UAUA, AGU Moving Above 30 DMA = 8 BKC, CAM, CEDC, CREE, V, VPRT, WHR, WLT Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA VAR, K, MYGN, TDG, WFC, WMT, GR, ESI, SNDK, DECK, HANS, JEC, MA, BYI, ACN, FLS, UNG, BUCY, DE, DOW, FAS, HLF, SYNA, UNP, UYG, X, ATW, HDB, MHS, MOS, PCP, URE, GS, HEAT, CAT, FCX, BAC, DHR, FUQI, ICE, IPI, SWN, USO, WAB, USD, PWRD, AMD, AMX, CGA, GES, MON, POT, TSL, BDX, WCG, SPG, GME, MELI, PCLN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 3 months, Up = 10 month Short Term Market Trend: Up