Thursday, December 31, 2009

2009 One Last Surprise in the Last 25 Minutes...

Happy New Year Everyone...Thank you for sharing 2009 with Chart Signals! DJIA - 120.46 -1.14% SP500 - 11.32 -1.00% COMPQ - 22.13 -0.97% Russell 2000 - 8.02 -1.27% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 996 1,049 Declining 2,026 1,736 Oil $79.36 +0.08 Gold $1,095.20 +3.70 SOX 359.91 -1.48 VIX 21.68 +1.72 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Thursday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLF -0.21%…XLE -0.80%...XLK -0.86% Weakest Sectors: XLU -1.43%...XLB -1.38%...XLV -1.33% All nine sectors moved lower on Thursday. Financials, Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples were stronger than the SPX -1.00%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,119 = December High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 2009, one of the most dramatic market years in history, came to a close on Thursday with a final dramatic sell off during the last 25 minutes of trading. 2009 was as dramatic for the end of the bear market during the first two months of 2009, as it was for the 10 months of surprising rebound from the March 6 low. Don’t let the 25 minute sell off on Thursday distract you from the trend. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) 2009 Returns COMPQ +43.8% RUT +25.2% SPX +23.4% INDU +18.8% SOX +69.6% Check out thise chart: (click image to enlarge) Check out this chart: (click image to enlarge) Check out this chart: (click image to enlarge) In 2010 we look for: Economic recovery to continue… The up trend in stocks to continue although at a slower rate of increase (not that this really matters since we’ll just trade the trend whatever its is)… Interest rates to rise later in the year… The dollar to rise… The SPX and Euro to decouple… Bonds to move lower as interest rates rise…
Guidance: Stay with your up trending positions. Raise your stops. Look for the intermediate term trend to continue. XLF continues to be the key to the SPX breakout following through to the upside. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Watch for re-entry on bull flag trend continuation moves. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -0.91 QCOM -0.60 GOOG -2.75 BIDU -5.00 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: TEVA, RIMM, WCRX,NVDA, ILMN, PDCO, SRCL, DTV, CTSH, LBTYA, BIIB, MRVL, LIFE, CTAS, AAPL, ADSK, MICC, GOOG, RYAAY, CA, PPDI and NTAP. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, TSL, AFAM, GR, SYNA, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, GMCR, UNG, HANS, SWN, CAM, MHS, CTSH, WAB, ESI, ICE, JEC, MOS, UYG, VAR, AMZN, AAPL, JOSB, ACN, DECK, EBAY, K, RCI, SLGN, FAS, USO, GS, JCOM Moving Above 30 DMA = 0 Moving Below 30 DMA = 4 CEDC, ESRX, MCD, WMT Staying Below 30 DMA ATW, IPI, AMX, JOYG, CGA, FAZ, HLF, BIDU, GILD, HDB, BYI, PWRD, GME, CHL, FLS, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Down

This Is It...Happy New Year...

The Weekly Wrap is today at 4:30 pm ET...Don't miss Dave Johnson and Tom Sosnoff's final comments of 2009...once in a lifetime...there'll never be another 2009! 3:22 pm ET - well less than 40 minutes to go...I hope 2009 has been a great trading year for you...XLF is up a whopping 6 cents and every other sector is down...so as a result the SPX is down almost 4 points going into the close...it has been one more very tight trading range of just 6.08 points so far...well what did we expect for a holiday shortened week?... I'll have a great New Year's post that will be up Friday/Saturday in addition to tonight's post...so be sure to check back...new changes are coming... 12:40 pm ET - Two breakouts and two C Patterns from Wednesday night's post - 50/50 - Breakouts DECK -0.93 is pausing after a gain of +4.13 on Wednesday and GMCR is up +2.43...CPatterns GS +2.78 and CEDC -0.64...the good news is the gainers are up more than the pausers are down... BMO – ES +2.25 and NQ +3.50 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +1.80, AMZN +0.76, GOOG +1.77 and BIDU +2.32 are higher in pre-market trading. Based on pre-market trading it looks like the SPX has a shot at exceeding its 52-week of 1,130.38 set on Monday and Tuesday. This is the final trading day of 2009 and the NASDAQ four of AAPL, AMZN, GOOG and BIDU are all higher in pre-marketing trading. We’ll see if that translates into a strong up day to finish off a great 2009 that most people were simply stunned by. Don’t let everyone’s bullish mood fool you. Most people who write or talk about the market were citing a down January and that silly January Barometer, 11 months ago as an indication for a down year. If you are still listening and reading to those who cited that, then you deserve any confusion that they create in your thinking. Oh yes, that dreaded Straight Talk from a Pro. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January. The Euro is up 60 pips in overnight trading. Oil is up 5 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 14 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is 25 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 3 cents in pre-market trading. Continue to watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,125 – 1,133 Trading Down: Trading Up: POT, AMZN, FCX, CREE, X, RIMM, BUCY Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AMZN – RIMM – DOW – UAUA – MA – BUCY – NVDA – LRCX – WHR – AAPL – AKAM – AMD – CREE – KLAC – PCLN – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – FLIR – CAT – DE – PCP – UNP – STLD – POT – AGU – ACN – ICE – CME –

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Late Rally Turns SPX Positive...Barely...

DJIA + 3.10 +0.03% SP500 + 0.22 +0.02% COMPQ + 2.88 +0.13% Russell 2000 + 0.23 +0.04% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,378 1,424 Declining 1,627 1,296 Oil $79.28 +0.41 Gold $1,091.50 -5.50 SOX 361.39 +5.21 VIX 19.98 -0.03 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. From a practical view both the VIX and SPX were essentially unchanged. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLK +0.35%…XLF +0.07%...XLU -0.03% Weakest Sectors: XLY -0.69%...XLI -0.50%...XLV -0.28% Of the nine sectors only Technology and Financials moved higher and were stronger than the SPX +0.02%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target Just one trading day left and 2009 is in the record book. Have a wonderful New Years Eve on Thursday. I’ll see you in the Weekly Wrap after the market close. Yes I can't stay, away even when I'm not around. Indexes congested for a third straight day as stocks opened slightly lower from overnight futures trading but rallied almost immediately after the open and then bounced up and down in a very narrow trading range. The SPX and INDU formed hammer like patterns after a one day pull back on Tuesday. Advancers declined slightly on the NYSE and increased slightly on the NASD from Tuesday. XLF spent most of the day lower before finishing up 1 cent. Believe it or not we are still trying to discover, if this is the pause that refreshes or the beginning of a short term pull back? I like the looks of these nice bull flag patterns that we shared on Tuesday night. Sing…Two piercing lines, one spinning top and a doji in a bull flag…to the tune of the Twelve days of Christmas... Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Stay with your up trending positions. Raise your stops. Look for the intermediate term trend to continue. XLF continues to be the key to the SPX breakout following through to the upside. Be prepared if a pause that refreshes or pull back occurs. Remember Thursday is the last day of trading this year…Happy New Year! Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Watch for re-entry on bull flag trend continuation moves. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. DECK really broke out while GMCR held steady. Check out these Breakout and C Pattern Setup Charts: (click image to enlarge) AAPL +2.54 QCOM +0.21 GOOG +3.33 BIDU -3.40 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NVDA, STX, DELL, MRVL, IACI, AMAT, NTAP, BRCM, LRCX, ERTS, MXIM, KLAC, MCHP, XLNX, AAPL, GRMN, LLTC, ALTR, CEPH, FSLR, INTC, ATVI, VRSN, GILD, TEVA, SYMC, SIAL, BIIB, NIHD, GOOG, CELG, WCRX, EBAY, ORLY, VRTX, QCOM, JOYG, YHOO and CHRW. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, TSL, AFAM, GR, SYNA, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, UNG, HANS, SWN, CAM, MHS, CTSH, WAB, ESI, ESRX, ICE, JEC, MOS, MCD, UYG, VAR, AMZN, AAPL, JOSB, RBN, ACN, DECK, EBAY, K, RCI, SLGN, FAS, USO, WMT Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 CEDC, GS, JCOM Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 ATW Staying Below 30 DMA IPI, AMX, JOYG, CGA, FAZ, HLF, BIDU, GILD, HDB, BYI, PWRD, GME, CHL, FLS, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Lower Open...

12:05 pm ET - DECK is breaking out above its 100.88 high, chart target on successfull breakout = 111.95...X is also bouncing in its bull flag pattern... 9:54 - SPX, SPY, QQQQ, AAPL, GOOG and QCOM are also positive while AMZN, BIDU and PCLN are still negative in early trading... 9:47 am ET - semiconductors MRVL, KLAC, NVDA, LRCX and others continue to gain strength as does the SPX and SPY from the open...our Look at These Charts below...BUCY, CREE, PCP and WHR are starting to bounce in their bull flag patterns... 9:33 am ET - stocks open lower and begin to rally...look at SOX turning positive along with NVDA, LRCX, KLAC, MRVL and others... BMO – ES -4.00 and NQ -5.00 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL -0.30, AMZN -1.11, GOOG -0.95 and BIDU -2.38 are lower in pre-market trading. Based on pre-market trading it looks as if the SPX is pulling back. We’ll see if U.S. based traders reverse the small overnight sell off or if they become net sellers at the open. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January. The Euro is down 28 pips in overnight trading. Oil is unchanged in electronic trading. XLE is down 23 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is down 39 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 6 cents in pre-market trading. Continue to watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,125 – 1,133 Trading Down: POT, AMZN, FCX, CREE, X, RIMM, UAUA Trading Up: NFLX Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AMZN – RIMM – DOW – UAUA – MA – BUCY – NVDA – LRCX – WHR – AAPL – AKAM – AMD – CREE – KLAC – PCLN – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – FLIR – CAT – DE – PCP – UNP – STLD – POT – AGU – ACN – ICE – CME –

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Consolidation with Just Two Trading Days Left...

DJIA - 1.67 -0.02% SP500 - 1.58 -0.14% COMPQ - 2.68 -0.12% Russell 2000 - 0.57 -0.09% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,491 1,341 Declining 1,531 1,358 Oil $78.76 -0.01 Gold $1,097.00 -10.20 SOX 356.18 -1.46 VIX 20.01 +0.08 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Tuesday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLY +0.33%…XLI +0.28%...XLP +0.19% Weakest Sectors: XLE -0.66%...XLF -0.41%...XLK -0.13% Four of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Materials, Utilities, Healthcare and Technology were stronger than the SPX -0.14%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target
Upward momentum paused for another day on Tuesday as all four broad indexes were down a fraction of a percent. The SPX reached a high of 1,130.38 for the second straight day but gave back the gains as XLF again turned negative and finished the day down 6 cents. So we’ll watch on Wednesday to see if the recent rally resumes for the last two days of the year or if the congestion of the past two days continues. The question is still: Is this the pause that refreshes or the beginning of a short term pull back? Several strong trending stocks have pulled back more than the broad indexes are forming some nice bull flag patterns. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge)
Guidance: Stay with your up trending positions. Raise your stops. Look for the intermediate term trend to continue. XLF continues to be the key to the SPX breakout following through to the upside. Be prepared if a pause that refreshes continues or pull back occurs. Remember this is a holiday shortened week with just two days of trading left. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance and watch for bull flag pull backs to resume their intermediate term up trend. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules.
AAPL -2.51 QCOM +0.39 GOOG -3.47 BIDU -4.66 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NWSA, FLIR, CEPH, ROST, PDCO, DISH, NVDA, LBTYA, LRCX, LOGI,QCOM, GRMN, CHRW, MSFT, ILMN, CTAS, URBN, FSLR, JBHT, INTC, GILD, GENZ, VRTX, ADSK, PPDI, BIIB, YHOO, FISV, HANS, HSIC, VRSN, ORCL, SIAL, ADP and ERTS. Check out these Breakout and BO Setup Charts: (click image to enlarge) Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA JW.A, DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, TSL, AFAM, GR, SNHY, SYNA, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, PETS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, GPRO, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, CPLA, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, GXDX, HANS, PPD, SWN, CAM, MHS, CTSH, WAB, ESI, ESRX, ICE, JEC, MOS, TRLG, MCD, UYG, VAR, AMZN, AAPL, JOSB, RBN, ACN, BAP, DECK, EBAY, K, RCI, SLGN, FAS, ATW Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 WMT Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 DLTR, IPI, PSYS Staying Below 30 DMA AMX, JOYG, CGA, FAZ, HLF, WMT BIDU, GILD, HDB, BYI, JCOM, PWRD, GME, CHL, FLS, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

1:25 pm ET - NKE is pausing at resistance...AAPL, GOOG, BIDU along with other Nasdaq stocks are pullig back today...AMZN has given back its early gains...semiconductor stocks are also lower for the second straight day, although Tuesday's pull back is less than Monday's so far... 12:55 pm ET - NKE is at a potential breakout point above 66.08 with a measuring distance of 4.54 and a chart target of 68.62...our exit on X yesterday looks to have served us very well and it appears to be in process of forming a bull flag...we will stay focused on a potential higher low on the X chart...SPX continues to consolidate down 1 point and XLF is down 1 cent...DECK is also enjoying a support bounce after coming within 11 cents of its 30 DMA and bouncing, now up 76 cents... 10:30 am ET - Stocks are mostly consolidating this morning with the INDU +29, SPX +2, COMPQ +1 and RUT +0.43...XLF is up 3 cents...XLB is the leading sector up 14 cents...leading stocks include FLIR, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, CHKP, ESRX, DOW, FCX and AA...AAPL, GOOG and BIDU have turned slightly negative from pre-market trading... BMO – ES +4.00 and NQ +5.00 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +0.66, AMZN +1.59, GOOG +0.82 and BIDU +1.26 are higher in pre-market trading. Based on pre-market trading it looks as if the SPX is has to move towards the next resistance level of 1,033. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January. The Euro is up 66 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting up 12 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 25 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is up 37 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 5 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,125 – 1,133 Trading Down: POT Trading Up: AMZN, FCX, CREE, X, RIMM, UAUA, AKAM, NFLX Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AMZN – RIMM – DOW – UAUA – MA – BUCY – NVDA – LRCX – WHR – AAPL – AKAM – AMD – CREE – KLAC – PCLN – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – FLIR – CAT – DE – PCP – UNP – STLD – POT – AGU – ACN – ICE – CME –

Monday, December 28, 2009

NDX and SPX Make New High Close...

DJIA + 26.98 +0.26% SP500 + 1.30 +0.12% COMPQ + 5.39 +0.24% Russell 2000 - 0.32 -0.05% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,560 1,235 Declining 1,488 1,491 Oil $78.77 +0.95 Gold $1,107.20 +3.10 SOX 357.64 -3.42 VIX 19.93 +0.46 The VIX moved up and did not confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. The SOX moved down and did not confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLV +0.51%…XLK +0.30%...XLP +0.19% Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.34%...XLI -0.18%...XLY -0.07% Six of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Healthcare, Technology, Consumer Staples and Energy were stronger than the SPX +0.12%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target Upward momentum slowed on Monday as the COMPQ closed at 2,291.08 its highest close since Sept. 3, 2008 and the SPX closed at 1,127.78. Most notable was the modest pullback in the SOX and Financials XLF which moved higher during the first 30 minutes of trading and then sold off until late afternoon. Both the SOX and XLF rallied from their lows during the final 90 minutes of trading. The SPX again failed to hold its early gains as XLF weakened. The SPX then rallied from its lows when XLF rose in the last 90 minutes. So the SPX did pause on Monday as we mentioned in our last Guidance. Advancers and Decliners were near even and the Sectors had a modest return range on Monday. The question is: Is this the pause that refreshes or the beginning of a short term pull back? Watch on Tuesday to see if the late rally continues or the sell off resumes. AAPL +2.57 was the thirteenth strongest NDX stock on Monday on rising volume. APOL, URBN, GENZ, RIMM, BIDU, BIIB, SHLD, ESRX and HANS were stronger than AAPL. Stop Update: Our stop on our X Jan 46 calls was filled today at 10:42 am MT at 10.90 for a gain of 8.71 or 397%. The original investment on this virtual trade was $11,025 and the net proceeds were $54,425 after commissions on both sides for a net gain of $43,400 on as you might remember an initial risk based on the stop of approximately $4,000. The trade was entered on Dec 9, 19 days ago. Nice breakouts on ICE and CME and potential breakout setups on K and DECK. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Stay with your up trending positions. Raise your stops. Look for the intermediate term trend to continue. XLF continues to be the key to the SPX breakout following through to the upside. Be prepared if a pause that refreshes or pull back occurs. Remember this is a holiday shortened week with just three days of trading left. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance and watch for potential pull backs in stocks that are below recent highs. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +2.57 QCOM +0.16 GOOG +4.39 BIDU +8.30 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: AAPL, DELL, MRVL, SHLD, ADSK, LINTA, BRCM, GRMN, CA, MXIM, LBTYA, KLAC, ERTS, SYMC, FLEX, ILMN,ALTR, APOL, LLTC, MICC, HOLX,ISRG, XLNX, INTC, GOOG, FWLT, NWSA, FLIR, FSLR, NTAP, VRTX and ORCL. Check out these Support Bounce Charts: (click image to enlarge) Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA JW.A, DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, TSL, AFAM, GR, SNHY, SYNA, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, PETS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, GPRO, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, CPLA, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, GXDX, HANS, PPD, SWN, CAM, MHS, CTSH, WAB, ESI, ESRX, ICE, JEC, MOS, TRLG, MCD, UYG, VAR, AMZN, AAPL, JOSB, RBN, ACN, BAP, DECK, DLTR, EBAY, K, RCI, SLGN, PSYS, FAS, IPI Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 ATW Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 AMX, JOYG Staying Below 30 DMA CGA, FAZ, HLF, WMT BIDU, GILD, HDB, BYI, JCOM, FLS, PWRD, GME, CHL, FLS, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Slightly Higher Open...

11:05 am ET - after a modest near 4 point rally the SPX sits at 1,127 just above Friday's close...XLF after being up 6 cents is now down 1 cent...do you see the relationship here? AAPL led the rally this morning...SHLD, AMZN, BIDU, PCLN, GOOG, CERN, HANS, FSLR, NIHD and RIMM are all leaders this morning also... Like the SPX most stocks have pulled back from their early morning highs but are still up for the morning... I moved the stop on the X virtual trade on the Jan 46 calls to 10.90...yes, those 50 calls enteed on Dec 9 at 2.19 are quoting at 11.80 bid this morning...with about $48,000 of gain...most are aware I have been targeting the original risk level of about $4,000 (end of day) for stop movement. Dave's Insight: A stop loss is a loss protection tool, insurance. A trailing stop is a profit protection tool. BMO – ES +2.50 and NQ +4.50 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +3.02, AMZN +0.80, GOOG +2.52 and BIDU +2.74 are higher in pre-market trading. Based on pre-market trading it looks as if the SPX is has to move towards the next resistance level of 1,033. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January. The Euro is up 32 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting up 45 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 39 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is up 31 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 2 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX. Stay with the trend. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,125 – 1,133 Trading Down: Trading Up: AAPL, SNDK, AMZN, FCX, CREE, X, RIMM, POT, AGU Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AMZN – RIMM – DOW – UAUA – V – JOYG – NVDA – LRCX – WHR – AAPL – AKAM – AMD – CREE – KLAC – PCLN – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – FLIR – CAT – DE – PCP – UNP – PNC – STLD – POT – AGU – ACN –

Thursday, December 24, 2009

SPX Reaches 1,125...AAPL Moves Higher on Volume Increase...

DJIA + 53.66 +0.51% SP500 + 5.89 +0.53% COMPQ + 16.05 +0.71% Russell 2000 + 3.09 +0.49% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,181 1,631 Declining 752 980 Oil $77.10 +0.43 - Feb contract Gold $1,104.10 +10.80 SOX 361.06 +5.69 VIX 19.47 -0.24 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLK +0.92%…XLF +0.90%...XLB +0.78% Weakest Sectors: XLV +0.00%...XLY +0.07%...XLP +0.38% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Technology, Financials, Materials and Utilities were stronger than the SPX +0.53%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target
The COMPQ closed at 2,285.69 its highest close since Sept. 3, 2008. The COMPQ broke through its 61.8% Fib retracement from its 2007 high indicating there is more to come in this up trend. AAPL +3.43% was the NDX leader on Thursday with higher volume than it had on Tuesday and Wednesday notwithstanding that Thursday was only a half day of trading. The AAPL breakout on volume is additional technical evidence of the strength of the COMPQ trend. The SPX finally broke out of horizontal resistance and closed at 1,126.48 its next resistance level and a new 52-week closing high. XLF was the second leading sector up 0.90% gave the strength to the SPX on this breakout. This is exactly what we have been saying for the past few weeks that the SPX likely would not breakout without the support of the Financials.
Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge)
While most NDX stocks moved higher on Thursday including leaders MSFT, ORCL and GOOG on lower volume. This is to be fully expected due to the half day of trading and is not a negative. Other NDX leaders on Thursday included MRVL and SHLD which moved higher on volume that was near their Tuesday and Wednesday volume levels making their rise even more impressive.
Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge)
Guidance: Stay with your up trending positions. Raise your stops. Look for the short term trend to continue on the strength of the AAPL breakout and XLF. XLF continues to be the key to the SPX breakout following through to the upside. Be prepared if a pause that refreshes occurs. Advancing issues led declining issues on both the NYSE and NASD. NASDAQ stocks AAPL, GOOG, MRVL, SHLD, BRCM, MSFT, ORCL and DECK moved higher. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance and watch for potential pull backs in stocks that are below recent highs. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +6.94 QCOM +0.15 GOOG +6.80 BIDU +1.79 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: AAPL, DELL, MRVL, SHLD, ADSK, LINTA, BRCM, GRMN, CA, MXIM, LBTYA, KLAC, ERTS, SYMC, FLEX, ILMN,ALTR, APOL, LLTC, MICC, HOLX,ISRG, XLNX, INTC, GOOG, FWLT, NWSA, FLIR, FSLR, NTAP, VRTX and ORCL. Check out these Support Bounce Charts: (click image to enlarge) Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA JW.A, AMZN, SLGN, DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, ACN, TSL, AFAM, GR, SNHY, SYNA, HDB, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, PETS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, GPRO, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, CPLA, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, GXDX, HANS, PPD, SWN, CAM, MHS, CTSH, WAB, ESI, ESRX, ICE, JEC, MOS, TRLG, MCD, UYG, VAR, AAPL, JOSB, RBN, JOYG, BAP, DECK, DLTR, EBAY, K, RCI, SLGN Moving Above 30 DMA = 4 AMX, PSYS, FAS, IPI Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 CGA Staying Below 30 DMA FAZ, HLF, WMT BIDU, GILD, BYI, JCOM, FLS, PWRD, GME, CHL, FLS, ATW, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Up...Markets Close at 1 pm ET...

BMO – ES +2.50 and NQ +3.50 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +0.90, AMZN +0.76, GOOG +0.82 and BIDU +1.80 are higher in pre-market trading. Expect volume to be lighter on half day of trading. Markets close at 1:00 pm ET. Join us in the Weekly Wrap at 1:15 pm ET. Based on pre-market trading it looks as if the SPX is has another chance to touch the next resistance level of 1,125. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January. The Euro is up 75 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting down 30 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 5 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is up 25 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 8 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained breakout in the SPX. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. Merry Christmas to all that celebrate....everyone please enjoy the three day weekend! SPX Support = 1,106 - 1,117…1,087…1,082 Resistance = 1,125 – 1,133 Trading Down: Trading Up: SNDK, AMZN, FCX, UAUA, CREE Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AMZN – RIMM – DOW – UAUA – V – JOYG – NVDA – LRCX – WHR – AAPL – AKAM – AMD – CREE – KLAC – PCLN – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – FLIR – CAT – DE – PCP – UNP – PNC – STLD – AMLN – POT – AGU – ACN –

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

RUT and COMPQ Lead Market Higher...

DJIA + 1.51 +0.01% SP500 + 2.57 +0.23% COMPQ + 16.97 +0.75% Russell 2000 + 7.38 +1.18% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,169 1,850 Declining 855 866 Oil $76.67 +2.27 - Feb contract Gold $1,093.30 +7.30 SOX 355.37 +0.65 VIX 19.71 +0.17 The VIX moved up and did not confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLB +1.53%…XLE +0.79%...XLY +0.63% Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.41%...XLV -0.32%...XLP +0.08% Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Technology were stronger than the SPX +0.23%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,119 = December High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target The COMPQ closed at 2,269.64 its highest close since Sept. 19, 2008. The RUT which broke out of a symmetrical triangle on Dec 4 closed at 630.98 a new 52-week high. The SOX which broke out of its symmetrical triangle on Dec 2 closed at 355.37 a new 52-week high. The SPX closed at 1,120.59 barely making a new 52-week high. XLF was down 6 cents and created a challenge for the SPX to rise even though Material, Energy and Technology stocks had a strong day on Wednesday. Volume rose modestly from Tuesday. Thursday is a half trading day. Light volume can also create extra volatility as the traders that are around are sometimes able to push the market up or down with less resistance. Advancing issues led declining issues on both the NYSE and NASD. Guidance: Stay with your up trending positions. Raise your stops. Enjoy the Christmas Holiday weekend. Watch the Weekly Wrap on Thursday at 1:15 pm ET with Ben Watson, Tom Sosnoff and David Johnson. Continue to watch XLF for the key to whether the SPX can break out of resistance or stay in its horizontal trading range. The SPX again inched higher, closed at but did not break the horizontal resistance of the past six weeks. Tech stocks PCLN, AMZN, GOOG, BIDU, AAPL, CREE, CERN, NVDA, CTXS and EBAY moved higher. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance and watch for potential pull backs in stocks that are below recent highs. Continue to focus on the trend and follow your rules. AAPL +1.74 QCOM +0.11 GOOG +10.56 BIDU +15.39 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: EBAY, ATVI, FWLT, YHOO, PCLN, AMZN, BIDU, ERTS, CTXS, HANS, SHLD, STLD, INFY, EXPE, ILMN, CHKP, GOOG, URBN, CERN, DELL, ISRG, VRSN, LOGI, LINTA, NVDA, NTAP, IACI, ADSK, ORCL, FAST, CTSH, XRAY, APOL, WYNN, AKAM, CELG, CA and AAPL. Check out these Support Bounce Charts: (click image to enlarge) Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA JW.A, AMZN, SLGN, DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, ACN, TSL, AFAM, GR, SNHY, SYNA, HDB, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, PETS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, GPRO, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, CPLA, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, GXDX, HANS, PPD, SWN, CAM, MHS, CTSH, WAB, ESI, ESRX, ICE, JEC, MOS, TRLG, MCD, UYG, VAR, AAPL, JOSB, PSYS, RBN, JOYG, FAS Moving Above 30 DMA = 8 BAP, CGA, DECK, DLTR, EBAY, K, RCI, SLGN Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 PSYS, FAS Staying Below 30 DMA FAZ, HLF, IPI, AMX, WMT BIDU, GILD, BYI, JCOM, FLS, PWRD, GME, CHL, FLS, ATW, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

BMO – ES +5.00 and NQ +6.50 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +0.84, AMZN +0.97, GOOG +1.78 and BIDU +2.74 are higher in pre-market trading. Expect volume to be lighter on this last full day of trading this week. Thursday is a half day of trading. Based on pre-market trading it looks as if the SPX is likely to break Tuesday’s high and touch the next resistance level of 1,125. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January. The Euro is up 23 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting up 25 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 1 cent in pre-market trading. SPY is up 49 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 7 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained breakout in the SPX. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,106 - 1,117…1,087…1,082 Resistance = 1,125 – 1,133 Trading Down: Trading Up: NVDA, AMZN, FCX, UAUA, WHR, CREE, CERN, DE Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AMZN – RIMM – DOW – UAUA – V – JOYG – NVDA – LRCX – WHR – AAPL – AKAM – AMD – CREE – KLAC – PCLN – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – FLIR – CAT – DE – PCP – UNP – PNC – STLD – AMLN – POT – AGU – ACN –

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

SPX New 52-Heek High Close...

DJIA + 50.79 +0.49% SP500 + 3.97 +0.36% COMPQ + 15.01 +0.67% Russell 2000 + 5.00 +0.81% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,897 1,601 Declining 1,131 1,105 Oil $74.60 +0.88 - Feb contract Gold $1,086.00 -9.40 SOX 354.72 +2.07 VIX 19.54 -0.95 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Tuesday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLK +0.80%…XLP +0.68%...XLB +0.59% Weakest Sectors: XLU -0.83%...XLY -0.17%...XLI +0.11% Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Technology, Consumer Staples, Materials, Energy and Healthcare were stronger than the SPX +0.36%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,119 = December High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target The SPX closed at 1,118.02 a new 52-week closing high. The COMPQ closed at 2,252.67 also a new 52-week high close. The SOX closed at a new high and the RUT closed just below its 52-week high. Guidance: XLF, closed 3 cents higher giving support for the broader market by not offsetting gains in other sectors. Continue to watch XLF on Wednesday for the key to whether the SPX can break out of resistance or pull back once again. The SPX is inching higher but not clearly breaking the horizontal resistance of the past six weeks. If the SPX breaks out look for a move to the 1,025 to 1,033 area. Volume drifted lower in many major ETFs and stocks on Tuesday. Expect the trend to continue on Wednesday. Thursday is a half trading day. Light volume can also create extra volatility as the traders that are around are sometimes able to push the market up or down with less resistance. Advancing issues led declining issues on both the NYSE and NASD. Tech stocks AAPL, CREE GOOG, PCLN, AMZN, CERN, NVDA, CTXS and QCOM moved higher. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance and watch for potential pull backs in stocks that are below recent highs. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +2.13 QCOM +0.43 GOOG +2.44 BIDU -8.57 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: HOLX, CERN, FLIR, BBBY, FLEX, RYAAY, ILMN, NVDA, SBUX, BIIB, ISRG, TEVA, LBTYA, WCRX, CTXS, SPLS, VRTX, LLTC, EXPE, SHLD, MICC, JOYG, PDCO, ERTS, CTSH, HSIC, AAPL, XRAY, ALTR, ESRX, MXIM, MSFT, AKAM, PPDI, QCOM, HANS, AMGN and STX. Check out these Support Bounce Charts: (click image to enlarge) Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA JW.A, AMZN, SLGN, DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, ACN, TSL, AFAM, GR, SNHY, SYNA, HDB, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, PETS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, GPRO, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, CPLA, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, GXDX, HANS, PPD, SWN, MHS, CTSH, WAB, ESI, ESRX, JEC, MOS, TRLG, UYG, VAR Moving Above 30 DMA = 6 AAPL, JOSB, PSYS, RBN, JOYG, FAS Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA DLTR, FAZ, CGA, BAP, HLF, ICE, SLGN, MCD, IPI, AMX, K, WMT BIDU, DECK, GILD, RCI, BYI, JCOM, EBAY, NFLX, PWRD, GME, CHL, FLS, ATW, CAM, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
BMO – ES +3.25 and NQ +7.50 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. The Euro is up 33 pips in overnight trading. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,087…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,106 - 1,1171,125 – 1,133 Technical issues are preventing use from see pre-market trading action and charts. Refer to Monday night's post for Support Bounce charts... Look at these Charts…PCLN, POT, CREE, KLAC At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AMZN – RIMM – DOW – UAUA – V – JOYG – NVDA – LRCX – WHR – AAPL – AKAM – AMD – CREE – KLAC – PCLN – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – FLIR – CAT – DE – PCP – UNP – PNC – STLD – AMLN – POT – AGU – ACN –

Monday, December 21, 2009

Nasdaq Hits 52-Week Closing High...SPX Near High

DJIA + 85.25 +0.83% SP500 + 11.58 +1.05% COMPQ + 25.97 +1.17% Russell 2000 + 8.03 +1.32% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,197 1,836 Declining 852 924 Oil $73.36 -0.68 - Feb contract Gold $1,095.40 -15.40 SOX 382.65 +7.82 VIX 20.49 -1.19 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLF +1.48%…XLB +1.47%...XLY +1.28% Weakest Sectors: XLU +0.29%...XLP +0.53%...XLI +0.75% All nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Financials, Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Energy were stronger than the SPX +1.05%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,119 = December High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance Guidance: Watch XLF on Tuesday for the key to whether the SPX can break out of resistance or pull back once again. Remember this next week is a holiday shortened week of just three and a half days. Christmas eve on Thursday, a half day and Friday markets are closed for Christmas. Expect trading to be lighter especially on Thursday. Light volume can also create extra volatility as the traders that are around are sometimes able to push the market up or down with less resistance. X, AMZN, NVDA and POT Monday morning’s Charts all had above market average gains for the day. Advancing issues led declining issues on both the NYSE and NASD. Tech stocks AAPL, CREE GOOG, PCLN, AMZN and QCOM all confirmed Friday’s support and bullish candle patterns. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +2.80 QCOM +0.84 GOOG +2.26 BIDU -7.01 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NVDA, EXPE, FLEX, AMZN, ESRX, JOYG, SHLD, TEVA, HOLX, LRCX, DELL, NWSA, PPDI, INTC, KLAC, DTV, FAST, LBTYA, BIIB, CTXS, URBN, LOGI, QCOM, BBBY, ROST, RYAAY, CTSH, LLTC, STLD, ILMN, AMGN, ADSK, ORLY, AMAT, NIHD, MCHP and MXIM. Check out these Support Bounce Charts: (click image to enlarge) Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA JW.A, AMZN, SLGN, DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, ACN, TSL, AFAM, GR, SNHY, SYNA, HDB, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, PETS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, GPRO, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, CPLA, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, GXDX, HANS, PPD, SWN, MHS, CTSH, WAB Moving Above 30 DMA = 7 ESI, ESRX, JEC, MOS, TRLG, UYG, VAR Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 DLTR, FAZ Staying Below 30 DMA CGA, BAP, HLF, ICE, PSYS, SLGN, MCD, IPI, AMX, K, JOYG, WMT BIDU, DECK, GILD, RCI, BYI, JCOM, EBAY, FAS, NFLX, JOSB, PWRD, AAPL, GME, CHL, FLS, RBN, ATW, CAM, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...XLF is Higher...

1:45 pm ET - SPX +12.05, +1.10%...XLF is higher and giving the SPX the foundation to rise on Monday...XLF is the third leading sector behind XLY +1.32% and XLB +1.41%... this morning's charts X +6.10%, AMZN +3.28%, NVDA +3.57% and POT +3.91% are three times plus stronger than the SPX...you should be having a great trading day today.... 10:30 am ET - last Monday night Dec.14 we placed a virtual trade to buy 20 Jan DECK calls conditioned on DECK rising above 101.08. Tuesday morning DECK fell over $5...the order did not fill...I left the order in until this morning when I canceled it and replaced it with a Buy 60 DECK Jan 95 calls with a conditional stop at 89.31 on the stock. DECK was forming a bullish harami at an area of prior support with an intermediate term up trend. The calls filled at 10:00:20 am ET at 3.00 per contract. BMO – ES +5.50 and NQ +6.00 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +0.67, AMZN +1.37, GOOG +1.58 and BIDU +1.52 are higher in pre-market trading. The Euro is up 55 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting up 32 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 30 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is up 56 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 7 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX. I like the hammer in the flag pattern on AMZN. POT is just below the 50% Fib retracement from its Nov. 2 low. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,087…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,106 - 1,117…1,125 – 1,133 Trading Down: Trading Up: RIMM, NVDA, AMZN, X, FCX, XLE, PCLN, POT, AGU, DOW Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AMZN – RIMM – DOW – UAUA – V – JOYG – NVDA – LRCX – WHR – AAPL – AKAM – AMD – CREE – KLAC – PCLN – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – FLIR – CAT – DE – PCP – UNP – PNC – STLD – AMLN – POT – AGU – ACN –

Friday, December 18, 2009

SPX Rebounds to Close at 1,102.47...

DJIA + 20.63 +0.20% SP500 + 6.39 +0.58% COMPQ + 31.64 +1.45% Russell 2000 + 6.32 +1.05% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,786 1,646 Declining 1,238 1,107 Oil $73.36 +0.71 Gold $1,110.80 +4.00 - Jan contract SOX 344.83 +5.01 VIX 21.68 -0.83 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Friday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLF +1.14…XLK +1.13...XLV +0.00% Weakest Sectors: XLP -1.13%...XLI -0.68%...XLB -0.62% Two of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Financials and Technology were stronger than the SPX +0.58%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,119 = December High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance The SPX formed a bullish harami after falling to a low of 1,093.88 before closing at 1,102.47. 1,102 is the middle of the six week sideways trading range with a high of 1,119 and a low 1,084. Only two sectors out performed the SPX, which is relatively rare on an up day. The positive here is that the leading sectors were XLF and XLK. Any breakout of resistance on the SPX will almost certainly need the XLF to participate. Over the past six weeks the XLF has drifted lower in a consolidation pattern. XLF is at its $14 support level of the past three months. The COMPQ was the strongest broad index, followed by the RUT on Friday. The SOX also had strong move on Friday. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) With the six week trading range in the SPX several stocks have formed my intermediate term C Pattern setup recently. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) Guidance: The SPX formed a bullish harami on Friday. Watch for confirmation on Monday. Remember this next week is a holiday shortened week of just three and a half days. Christmas eve on Thursday, a half day and Friday markets are closed for Christmas. Expect trading to be lighter especially on Thursday. Light volume can also create extra volatility as the traders that are around are sometimes able to push the market up or down with less resistance. RIMM, ORCL and NKE all rose from positive earnings on Thursday. The RUT, COMPQ and SOX also had strong days. XLF formed an outside day bouncing up at support. If the XLF does rise on Monday, look for it to help move the SPX higher. Advancing issues led declining issues on both the NYSE and NASD. Tech stocks AAPL, RIMM, CREE GOOG, PCLN, AMZN and QCOM bounced at support on Friday forming bullish candle patterns, while BIDU moved lower. Look for confirmation in these support bounces on Monday. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +3.57 QCOM +0.26 GOOG +2.48 BIDU -1.44 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: CELG, RIMM, VRSN, SBUX, ORCL, RYAAY, PPDI, MRVL, FWLT, MXIM, VRTX, INTC, IACI, ATVI, CTAS, MSFT, MSFT, HANS, LOGI, ILMN, AMGN, MICC, YHOO, AMAT, NIHD, AAPL, CTSH, APOL, ADSK, PCAR, LINTA and CTXS. Check out these Support Bounce Charts: (click image to enlarge) Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA JW.A, AMZN, SLGN, DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, ACN, TSL, AFAM, GR, SNHY, SYNA, HDB, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, PETS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, GPRO, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, CPLA, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, GXDX, HANS, PPD, SWN, FAZ, MHS Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 CTSH, DLTR, WAB Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 MOS, CGA Staying Below 30 DMA BAP, ESI, HLF, ICE, PSYS, SLGN, MCD, IPI, AMX, ESRX, K, VAR, JOYG, WMT BIDU, DECK, GILD, UYG, RCI, BYI, JCOM, EBAY, FAS, NFLX, JOSB, PWRD, AAPL, GME, CHL, FLS, RBN, ATW, CAM, JEC, TRLG, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Flat to Slightly Higher Open...

BMO – ES +3.75 and NQ +8.50 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. AAPL +1.27, AMZN +0.92, GOOG +2.00 and BIDU +1.96 are higher in pre-market trading. The Euro is down 20 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting up 82 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 30 cents in pre-market trading. Today is triple witching with options and futures expiration. SPY is up 2 cents in pre-market trading. Financials, XLF, is up 4 cents in pre-market trading. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,087…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,106 - 1,117…1,125 – 1,133 Trading Down: Trading Up: RIMM, NKE, NVDA, AMZN, PNC, X, FCX, XLE Look at these Charts…NVDA, PNC, X, RIMM At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – DOW – UAUA – V – JOYG – NVDA – LRCX – WHR – AAPL – AKAM – AMD – CREE – KLAC – PCLN – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – FLIR – CAT – DE – PCP – UNP – PNC – STLD – AMLN – POT – AGU – AMZN – RIMM – ACN –

Thursday, December 17, 2009

SPX Closes Lower as Yellow Alert Turns Red...

Dave is traveling from an AT Workshop with 300 traders in San Francisco tonight. He will post again on Friday. Listen to the Weekly Wrap on Friday. RIMM gapped up $7.75 or +12.21% and NKE was up $1.30 or +2.06% in after-hours trading after releasing earnings. The SPX closed -13.10 -1.18% at 1,096.08

Futures Pointing to a Lower Open...

BMO – ES -8.50 and NQ -11.25 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. AAPL -1.21, AMZN +0.85, GOOG -2.51 and BIDU -4.17 are mostly lower in pre-market trading. The Euro is down 174 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting down 70 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 42 cents in pre-market trading. This Friday is triple witching with options and futures expiration. SPY is down 84 cents in pre-market trading. If cash trading opens lower expect a pullback to support in this five and a half week trading range. Financials, XLF, is down 12 cents in pre-market trading. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. Dave is teaching an Advanced Technical Workshop with more than 300 traders in San Francisco today. SPX Support = 1,087…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,106 - 1,117…1,125 – 1,133 Trading Down: JOYG, UAUA, RIMM, X, FCX, XLE Trading Up: NVDA, AMZN, PNC Look at these Charts…NVDA, PNC, X, ACN At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – DOW – UAUA – V – JOYG – NVDA – LRCX – WHR – AAPL – AKAM – AMD – CREE – KLAC – PCLN – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – FLIR – CAT – DE – PCP – UNP – PNC – STLD – AMLN – POT – AGU – AMZN – RIMM – ACN –

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

SPX Forms Shooting Star at 1,109.18...

DJIA - 10.88 -0.10% SP500 + 1.25 +0.11% COMPQ + 5.86 +0.27% Russell 2000 + 4.90 +0.81% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,969 1,586 Declining 1,068 1,141 Oil $72.66 +2.26 Gold $1,135.70 +13.20 - Jan contract SOX 344.86 +5.89 VIX 20.54 -0.95 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLB +1.01…XLE+0.64...XLF+0.63% Weakest Sectors: XLV -0.51%...XLP -0.48%...XLU -0.44% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Materials, Energy, Financials, and Technology were stronger than the SPX +0.11%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,119 = December High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance Guidance: The SPX reached 1,116.21 before pulling back to 1,109.18 after the FOMC announcement at 2:15 pm ET after they announced that rates were left unchanged. XLF was up modestly helping support the SPX. It did not rise enough to help the SPX break through resistance. The SPX continues to trade near resistance and we must continue to watch for a potential resistance breakout or a pull back to support. The SPX closed is still on Yellow Alert for short term traders. The next level of resistance on the SPX is the 1,125 -1,133 area. The SPX chart still has a 1,234 price target with by the end of January. Advancing issues led declining issues on both the NYSE and NASD. Tech stocks AAPL, RIMM, CREE GOOG, BIDU, PCLN and the SOX index were stronger on Wednesday while AMZN and QCOM moved lower. The SOX reached a new 52-week high. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +0.86 QCOM -0.19 GOOG +4.62 BIDU +2.26 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NVDA, STX, BRCM, MRVL, ADBE, XLNX, MXIM, HANS, NWSA, LLTC, CERN, VRTX, CTXS, INFY, EBAY, ERTS, AKAM, CTSH, BIIB, ALTR, EXPE, PCLN, EXPD, DELL, LBTYA, CHKP, LOGI, IACI, GRMN, VRSN, MCHP, ATVI, FAST, RIMM, KLAC, SPLS, SHLD, HSIC and RIMM. Check out these Charts: CTSH, PCLN, CLB, SWN Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA JW.A, AMZN, SLGN, DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, ACN, TSL, AFAM, GR, SNHY, SYNA, CGA, HDB, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, MOS, TDG, X, IPI, BIIB, NTLS, PETS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, GPRO, USD, BAP, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, CPLA, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, ICE, SLGN, ESI, GXDX, HANS, HLF, PPD, SWN, PSYS, FAZ Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 MCD Moving Below 30 DMA = 7 AMX, ESRX, K, MHS, VAR, JOYG, WMT Staying Below 30 DMA BIDU, DECK, GILD, WAB, UYG, DLTR, CTSH, RCI, BYI, JCOM, EBAY, FAS, NFLX, JOSB, PWRD, AAPL, GME, CHL, FLS, RBN, ATW, CAM, JEC, TRLG, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral