Friday, October 29, 2010

SPX Forms Another Doji...Closes at 1,183...Second Week in a Row...

Friday was a nice trading day in the market if you were in the right stocks...CSTR, MXIM, IPI, BUCY, DE, STX, NIHD, PCLN and JOYG (to mention just a few that we watch) enjoyed solid gains, while the SPX traded in a tight trading range...Selectivity continued to be the theme for the third week of earnings season...absolutely no surprise since we alerted you  to this likelyhood three weeks ago...

The SPX closed down -0.52 or -0.04% on Friday forming a doji for the second day in a row…
(click image to enlarge)

CSTR, MXIM and DECK were among the market leaders after reporting better than expected earnings. Advancers led decliners 1.48 to 1 on the NYSE indicating broader strength than on Thursday …

Exchange      NYSE      NASDAQ
Advancers     1,755         1,469
Decliners       1,180         1,177
(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction    Confirmation
VIX          Up              Yes – SPX
SOX         Down         Yes – COMPQ
          
Leading stocks on Friday included CSTR, DECK, VECO, X, NETL, IPI, MOS, UNG, CLF, CF, AGU, LVS, SINA, PCLN, ATI, V, NTES, AKS, SOHU, BUCY, UNP, BYI, SWK, POT, RVBD, DE, AIV, GME, CAKE, TIE, CAT, LXK, HAS, HLF, NDAQ, CRM, TLT, CHL, FFIV, INFA, NYX, CREE,DHR, MHS, ATW, SWN, WFMI, SKX

Losing stocks included AMD, TSL, TBT, CRUS, ZION, WHR, CAM, UCO, STI, GS, FDX, NFLX, WLT, SNDK, BA, FCX, BAC, PCP, FLS, CAN, SPG, A, JEC, HANS, FAS, VMW, CMG

Interest rates moved lower, bonds rose, the EURO rose, the SOX rose +0.62%. The VIX rose +0.32 to 21.20.

Six of nine sectors moved higher on Friday with Materials XLB +0.81% and Consumer Staples XLP +0.35% leading all sectors.

Charts to Watch - Bull Flag Setups - BIDU, AMZN, BRCM, ILMN, KLAC
(click image to enlarge)

Charts to Watch - Bullish Engulfing Support Bounce - DE, SINA, SOHU, VECO, CAKE, X, BUCY
Other Flag Setups - SYMC, LOGI, LIFE, GRMN, STX, CMG, GS, HLF, MA, NFLX, NTES, RVBD, SWK, UAL, URE, V, CTXS

The eight week trend of the broad market represented by the SPX, INDU and RUT is up while the last two weeks have been neutral. This indicates that upward momentum is slowing. After eight weeks of up trending this consolidation could be the beginning of a short term pull back.

The trend in the NDX and broader COMPQ is up for both the eight and two week time frames.

We said three weeks ago that selectivity would rule with big money putting more money into stocks with good earnings and guidance and selling stocks with disappointing earnings or lower guidance. This has pretty much been the case and we expect that pattern to continue for the next week.

It appears that the real opportunity will continue to be in the stronger stocks that have already reported strong earnings and those that will do so during the up coming week.

Continue to trade with the trend and simultaneously be prepared for any break of support.


SPX
Resistance: 1,182, 1,190, 2,000
Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

A break and/or close below the low of the high day can be a potential exit for short bullish trades. Entry for a bearish signal can be a close below of the low of the high day for a counter trend trade or the same entry on a down trending stock.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -4.26 – falls to support of Thursday’s hammer low
QCOM +0.74 – white candle
GOOG -4.88 – spinning top confirms Thursday’s hanging man but does not break low
BIDU -2.16 – black spinning top breaks below low of high day

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include MXIM, STX, LBTYA, VRSN, NIHD, PCLN, ORLY, XLNX, ADSK, JOYG, QCOM, ALTR, LLTC and FWLT.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: FSLR, HSIC, CTSH, INTC, BIDU, BRCM, BIIB, WCRX, SYMC, CSCO, AAPL, DELL, CMCSA, CTXS and PPDI.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, LVS, CMG, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, CAKE, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, UNP, URE, WLT, A, HAS, IPI, ICE, ATW, SLB, ACN, AMX, NDAQ, UAL, USD, MA, HSY, FDX, NTRI, AMD, V, ATI, BA, DECK, GR, UCO, CF, GS, SPG, HANS, MOS, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NYX, NFLX, NTES, PCP, PNC, BYI, INFA, MHS, NETL, CRM, FFIV, GMCR, ARUN, SNDK, SWN, ESI
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
CAT, CLF, GME, POT, SWK
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
JEC
Staying Below 30 DMA
FAS, FLS, GES, SKX, WHR, ZION, LXK, CHL, STI, CREE, AKS, TIE, FAZ, RMBS, TSL, BAC, CRUS, X, TLT, DLR, VMW, UNG

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
(click image to enlarge)

Futures Point to a Flat Open...

BMO - ES -2.00 and NQ +0.25 are near even pointing to a flat open...

TLT is up 33 cents and the EURO is down 49 pips...

FSLR -11.46 is gapping down on the open after reporting earnings Thursday after the close...

CSTR +8.75 is gapping up on the open after reporting earnings Thursday after the close...

Quoting Down - FSLR, CLF, GS, NFLX, CERN, RIMM, VRSN, AMZN, GOOG, GENZ, BIDU, SWN, FCX, DE, BUCY, BA, CRM, WFMI, SLB, HSY, VOD, LXK, DLR, FDX, TSL

Quoting Up - CSTR, DECK, POT, NDAQ, TLT, IPI, SOHU, AIV, MXIM, CTSH, PCLN, MSFT, NIHD, GRMN, URBN, JOYG, CEPH, STX, FISV, ADBE

Thursday, October 28, 2010

SPX Forms Doji...COMPQ Potential Hanging Man...

The SPX closed up +1.33 or +0.11%, after being down more than 6 points, on Thursday forming a doji candle …
(click image to enlarge)

LVS, ORLY and AEM were among the market leaders after reporting better than expected earnings. Advancers barely led decliners 1.03 to 1 on the NYSE…

Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers    1,499       1,108
Decliners      1,451       1,520
(click image to enlarge)

Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX          Up               No – SPX
SOX         Down          No – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Thursday included LVS, AMD, VOD, UNG, ESI, ATI, IPI, GS, JEC, CSTR, GR, SWK, WLT, DLR, USD, A, HANS, HSY, BUCY, FDX, SLB, SWN, UNP, FAZ, BA, SOHU, X, TSL, SNDK, DHR, PCP

Losing stocks included SKX, FLS, WHR, V, RVBD, POT, MA, GES,LXK, VMW, NTES, UAL, CF, AGU, NFLX, URE, DECK, PCLN, NTRI, DOW, BYI, SINA, ZION, CMG, FAS, CREE, AIV, FFIV, CHL, AKS, MHS, NDAQ, CAT, CLF

Interest rates moved lower, bonds rose, the EURO rose, the SOX fell -0.11%. The VIX rose +0.17 at 20.88.

Five of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday with Healthcare XLV +0.58% and Consumer Discretionary XLY +0.46% leading all sectors.

Charts to Watch - Bear Flag Setups
(click image to enlarge)
SPX
Resistance: 1,182, 1,190, 2,000
Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

On Thursdaythe SPX again barely closed below the low of the high day on Monday so the barely Red Alert on the SPX on Wednesday is still barely on Thursday. We maintain our Yellow Alert on the COMPQ looking for a close below the low of the high day. As I said in Monday night’s webcast a move below the low of the high day does not necessarily signal a major retracement, but it does signal at least a short term pull back.

A break and/or close below the low of the high day can be a potential exit for short bullish trades. Entry for a bearish signal can be a close below of the low of the high day for a counter trend trade or the same entry on a down trending stock.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The three-month trend is neutral
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -2.59 – hammer
QCOM -0.06 – black candle
GOOG +2.11 –potential hanging man
BIDU -0.70 – small bearish engulfing

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include FLEX, ORLY, SYMC, NIHD, CELG, CMCSA, MRVL, PPDI, WYNN, ORCL, BIIB, CTSH, EBAY, DISH and CEPH.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: STX, XRAY, KLAC, SHLD, GRMN, URBN, LRCX, CHRW, HSIC, PCLN, FISV, ESRX, SRCL, FWLT and ERTS.

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, LVS, CMG, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, CAKE, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, UNP, URE, WLT, A, HAS, IPI, ICE, ATW, SLB, ACN, AMX, NDAQ, UAL, USD, MA, HSY, FDX, NTRI, AMD, V, ATI, BA, DECK, GR, UCO, CF, GS, SPG, HANS, MOS, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NYX, NFLX, NTES, PCP, PNC, BYI, INFA, MHS, NETL, CRM, FFIV, GMCR, SNDK, SWN
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
ESI, JEC
Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
CAT, FAS, FLS, POT
Staying Below 30 DMA
GES, JEC, SKX, WHR, ZION, CLF, LXK, CHL, STI, SWK, CREE, AKS, TIE, FAZ, RMBS, TSL, ESI, BAC, GME, CRUS, X, TLT, DLR, VMW, UNG

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

BMO - ES +4.75 and NQ +6.75 are  higher pointing to a higher open...Stay with the trend...

TLT is up 48 cents and the EURO is up 93 pips...

LVS is +11.79% in pre-market trading after reporting 34 cents vs. consensus of 23 cents...Look for a bullish gap this morning on LVS,  WYNN and AKAM...

Quoting Down - FLS, SKX, POT, MA, BYI, V, BA, NFLX, ATI, GS, RVBD, CF, INFA, TBT, WHR, BUCY, UAL TIE, AAPL, KLAC, CTXS, RIMM, ESR, ALTR, APOL

Quoting Up - LVS, CMG, WYNN, AKAM, ORLY, CELG, GOOG, GES, VOD, FCX, CRM, HANS, LXK, CSTR, TLT, IPI, FFIV, DOW, SNDK, SYMC, INFY, FLEX, RYAAY, BIDU, TEVA, CMCSA

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

SPX Rallies From Early Selloff Low...COMPQ Closes Higher Again...

The SPX closed down -3.19 or -0.27%, after being down more than 14 points, on Wednesday forming a hanging man candle that did confirm Monday’s shooting star and Tuesday’s hanging man…just barely …
(click image to enlarge)


Semiconductor stocks BRCM, MRVL and NVLS led the COMPQ higher along with FFIV, ILMN and the resurgence of EQIX. Decliners led advancers 1.87 to 1 on the NYSE…

Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers    1,033       1,016
Decliners      1,935      1,635
(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX          Up               Yes – SPX
SOX         Up               Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Wednesday included FFIV, NETL, USD, UAL, VMW, CRUS, VECO, CRM, ATI, GMCR, RVBD, BAC, AMD, LXK, SNDK, TBT, ICE, POT, ATW, GS, CAM, WLT, MA, NDAQ, BYI, UNG, PCP, NYX, INFA, RMBS, NFLX
 
Losing stocks included GES, WHR, AKS, JEC, FCX, UNP, AIV, NTES, SKX, AMX, DECK, URE, SHOU, FDX, MCD, CAKE, X, CHL, UCO, CLF, MOS, AGU, CSTR, NTRI, VOD, HANS, HSY, DOW, TLT, STI, BUCY, SINA, DE, BA, FLS, A, ZION, CAT, PCLN, IPI

Interest rates moved higher, bonds fell, the EURO was lower, the SOX exploded +3.09%. The VIX rose +0.49 at 20.71.

Just two of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday with Technology +0.29% and Financials XLF +0.07% leading all sectors.

Charts to Watch - Flag Setups
(click image to enlarge)

SPX
Resistance: 1,182, 1,190, 2,000
Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

The SPX Yellow Alert turned Red on Wednesday with a close below the low of the high dayjust barelysome traders may want further confirmation because of the strong close for the day...We maintain our Yellow Alert on the COMPQ looking for a close below the low of the high day. As I said in Monday night’s webcast a move below the low of the high day does not necessarily signal a major retracement, but it does signal at least a short term pull back.

A break and/or close below the low of the high day can be a potential exit for short bullish trades. Entry for a bearish signal can be a close below of the low of the high day for a counter trend trade or the same entry on a down trending stock.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -0.22 – doji
QCOM +0.54 – bullish engulfing
GOOG -2.13 –white spinning top
BIDU +0.25 – hanging man

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include BRCM, MRVL, ILMN, LIFE, LRCX, IACI, BIIB, AKAM, CTXS, CMCSA, XLNX, EXPE, ALTR, MCHP and LLTC.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: SHLD, URBN, FAST, NIHD, DISH, LOGI, RYAAY, EXPD, LINTA, AMZN, TEVA, CTSH, PPDI, JBHT and MICC.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, LVS, CMG, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, CAKE, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, UNP, URE, WLT, A, HAS, IPI, CAT, ICE, FLS, ATW, SLB, ACN, AMX, NDAQ, UAL, USD, MA, HSY, FDX, NTRI, AMD, V, ATI, BA, DECK, GR, UCO, CF, GS, SPG, HANS, MOS, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NYX, FAS, NFLX, NTES, PCP, PNC, BYI, INFA, MHS, NETL, CRM, FFIV, GMCR, POT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
SNDK, SWN
Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
GES, JEC, SKX, WHR, ZION
Staying Below 30 DMA
CLF, LXK, CHL, STI, SWK, CREE, AKS, TIE, FAZ, RMBS, TSL, ESI, BAC, GME, CRUS, X, TLT, DLR, VMW, UNG

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Slightly Lower Open...

BMO - ES -5.25 and NQ -7.75 are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a slightly lower open...ES is trading near Tuesday's low point and the NQ is trading near Tuesday's mid-range so look for the SPX to be weaker than the NDX which has been the pattern of the last two days...

TLT is -65 cents and the EURO is down 59 pips...weak bonds should give a lift to Financials XLF...

FFIV +9.08% in pre-marketing trading looks to gap up at the open, after reporting higher than expected earnings and raising Q4 guidance...

BRCM +10.42% in pre-market looks to gap up this morning after reporting 60 cents vs. consensus of 71 cents and initially trading lower in after-hours on Tuesday, BRCM raised Q4 revenue guidance...

Quoting Down - CMG, FCX, CF, ESI, CLF, CHL, CAKE, TLT, BUCY, MOS, X, GS, DE, SLB, DOW, CHRW, GOOG, ISRG, JOYG, AAPL, MICC, SBUX, LOGI,

Quoting Up - FFIV, BRCM, LIFE, ILMN, PCLN, AKAM, CTXS, CHKP, LRCX, COST, NTAP, IACI, RIMM, KLAC, CRM, NFLX, WHR, VMW, TBT, LXK,NETL, POT, TSL, SNDK

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

SPX Flat and COMPQ Closes Slightly Higher...NFLX Flag Entry...

The SPX closed near unchanged +0.02 or +0.00% on Tuesday forming a potential hanging man candle at resistance that did not confirm Monday’s shooting star…
(click image to enlarge)

Selectivity again ruled stocks as stocks like COH, MOS, NFLX, GRMN and RIMM had large gains and stocks like LXK, VECO, AKS and X moved lower. The COMPQ slowed to a gain of +0.26% but still ahead of the SPX. Decliners led advancers 1.17 to 1 on the NYSE…

Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers     1,377       1,310
Decliners       1,616       1,345
(click image to enlarge)

Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX          Up               No – SPX
SOX        Down           No – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Tuesday included NFLX, MOS, LVS, IPI, CMG, DECK, TBT, CF, UAL, RVBD, ATI, FCX, CAM, GMCR, VOD, FFIV, NTRI, AGU, UNG, POT, BAC, TIE, GME, SLB, SKX, UCO, PCLN, BYI, NTES, INFA, GS, RMBS, NETL

Losing stocks included LXK, VECO, AKS, X, BUCY, VMW, ICE, SWN, CSTR, WLT, SINA, TLT, PCP, SOHU, URE, CLF, CRUS, SWK, GES, DE, CAN, FLS, DLR

Interest rates moved higher, bonds fell, the EURO was lower, the SOX closed lower and the VIX rose +0.37 at 20.22.

Four of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday with Consumer Discretionary +0.43% and Technology XLK +0.25% leading all sectors. Financials XLF +0.14% rose on rising interest rates and weaker bonds.
(click image to enlarge)

In our Monday night webcast we placed three virtual trades. NFLX to buy 10 Dec 185 calls if the stock rose above 170.10, RIMM to buy 20 Nov 50 calls if the stock pulled back to 51.10 and INFY to buy 30 Nov 67.50 puts if the stock moved below 67.11.
 
RIMM did not pull back so the RIMM did not fill. NFLX did rise above the entry level and we bought 10 Dec 185 calls at 5.65. The options closed at 9.675 for a profit of 4,025 or 71% of unrealized gain the first day. INFY Nov 67.50 puts filled at 1.90 and the option closed at 1.875 for an unrealized loss of -75.00 on the first day.

How many of you also placed a virtual trade on NFLX?  It was the only one of 11 up trending stocks that I showed Monday night that had a flag setup. The other 10 stocks were making new highs.

How many people saw me do the paper trade order and thought, “it’s not going to bounce so I’m not going to waste my time practicing this virtual trade?”

Dave’s Insight: Do you want to change the results you get? Then you need to stop failing to practice because of what you think and start practicing because it is a valid setup, not because you know it will bounce.

SPX
Resistance: 1,182, 1,190, 2,000
Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support (like NFLX on Tuesday) and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Tuesday moved below the low of the high day but did not close below. As a result we maintain our Yellow Alert for Wednesday looking for a close below the low of the high day. As I said in Monday night’s webcast a move below the low of the high day does not necessarily signal a major retracement, but it does signal at least a short term pull back.

A break and/or close below the low of the high day can be a potential exit for short bullish trades. Entry for a bearish signal can be a close below of the low of the high day for a counter trend trade or the same entry on a down trending stock.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -0.79 – white spinning top confirms Monday’s shooting star
QCOM -0.39 – hammer
GOOG +2.10 –white spinning top does not confirm potential shooting star
BIDU +2.47 – large white candle does not confirm potential hanging man

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include GRMN, RIMM, STX, FWLT, EBAY, CTXS, MSFT, BIDU, LINTA, URBN, WYNN, MICC, NIHD, APOL, DISH and WCRX.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: KLAC, CTAS, SPLS, LOGI, JOYG, DELL, CERN, AMGN, STLD, CHRW, EXPE, LRCX, CSCO, QCOM and BRCM.

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, LVS, CMG, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, CAKE, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, UNP, URE, WLT, A, HAS, IPI, JEC, CAT, ICE, FLS, ATW, SLB, ACN, AMX, GES, NDAQ, UAL, USD, MA, HSY, FDX, NTRI, AMD, V, ATI, BA, DECK, GR, UCO, WHR, CF, GS, SPG, HANS, MOS, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NYX, ZION, FAS, NFLX, NTES, PCP, PNC, BYI, INFA, MHS, NETL, SKX, CRM, FFIV
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
GMCR, POT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
LXK, CLF, SWN
Staying Below 30 DMA
CHL, STI, SNDK, SWK, CREE, AKS, TIE, FAZ, RMBS, TSL, ESI, BAC, GME, CRUS, X, TLT, DLR, VMW, UNG

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Lower Open...Watch Yellow Alert...

9:50 am - VECO gapped lower and has filled its gap and is currently a white candle...


BMO - ES -6.50 and NQ -10.25 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open...Remember Monday signaled a Yellow Alert...Watch for a break and close below the Low of the High Day of the stocks you trade and follow your rules...

TLT is down 62 cents and the EURO is down 82 pips...

Stocks to Watch for a potential bearish setup - VMW, INFY, CREE, FAST, SWK, TSL, CRM

Potential Bearish Gaps - LXK, X, VECO

Trading Down - LXK, X, VECO, PCLN, FCX, CLF, CAT, URE, CRM, GR, WLT, JEC, AKS, CREE, RVBD, GS, SLB, TLT, GMCR, FDX, FFIV, CMG, ICE, WHR, SOHU, CHL, UNP, DHR, FAS, IPI, DE, LVS, MA, PCP, AGU, V, MOS, CSTR, NTES, BYI, CRUS, SNDK, GOOG, ISRG, PCAR, PCLN, AAPL, APOL, EXPD, VRTX, BIDU, AMZN, AMGN, LOGI AKAM, CTXS

Trading Up - ATI, NFLX, MHS, TBT, STI, FAZ, FSLR, ROST, CEPH, FISV, ESRX, ILMN, SHLD

Monday, October 25, 2010

SPX Forms Potential Shooting Star...Yellow Alert...

The SPX closed up +2.54 or +0.21% on Monday forming a potential shooting star at horizontal resistance…
(click image to enlarge)

Selectivity again ruled stocks as stocks like SOHU, NTES, IPI, SINA, AMD, RIMM and PCLN moved higher as weak stocks moved lower.  The COMPQ gained +0.46% about double the SPX.  Advancers again led decliners 1.5 to 1 on the NYSE...

Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers     1,796       1,616
Decliners       1,201       1,050
(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction   Confirmation
VIX            Up              No – SPX
SOX          Up              Yes – COMPQ 

Leading stocks on Monday included NTES, IPI, SINA, AMD, TSL, DOW, CRM, DECK, MOS, RVBD, INFA, FFIV, CREE, PCLN, VECO, MHS, FCX, ATI, BYI, TIE, FLS, ESI, VMW, LVS, LXK, V, NETL, WLT, POT, AMX, USD, CLF, NDAQ, AIV, SNDK, SLB, MA, UNP, GMCR, CAM, CAT

Losing stocks included CRUS, STI, BAC, ATW, ZION, NTRI, PNC, ICE, CSTR, PCP

RIMM was a breakout entry on Monday and NFLX is a bull flag setup.  Earnings season continues this week.  VECO gapped down in after hours trading.

Charts to Watch - Bearish Setups
(click image to enlarge)
SPX
Resistance: 1,182, 1,190, 2,000
Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Monday is a Yellow Alert. A break below the low of the high day can be a potential exit for short term bullish trades and a potential entry for short term bearish trades.

Entry for a bearish signal can be a close below of the low of the high day for a counter trend trade or the same entry on a down trending stock.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +1.37 – potential shooting star
QCOM +0.15 – doji does not confirm hammer
GOOG +3.97 –potential shooting star
BIDU +2.47 – potential hanging man following positive earnings gap on Friday

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include RIMM, URBN, ALTR, LRCX, VRTX, PCLN, BIDU, KLAC, AKAM, NIHD, FLEX, BIIB, SPLS, STLD and ADSK.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: FWLT, STX, LINTA, NWSA, CTSH, WYNN, FISV, HSIC, SHLD, MSFT, MRVL, INFY, FAST, ORCL and CA.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, LVS, CMG, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, CAKE, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, UNP, URE, WLT, A, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, ATW, SLB, ACN, AMX, GES, NDAQ, UAL, USD, MA, HSY, FDX, NTRI, AMD, V, ATI, BA, DECK, GR, UCO, WHR, CF, GS, SPG, HANS, MOS, SWN, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NYX, ZION, FAS, NFLX, NTES, PCP, PNC, BYI, INFA, MHS, NETL, SKX
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
CLF, CRM, FFIV
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
CHL, STI
Staying Below 30 DMA
SNDK, SWK, CREE, AKS, TIE, FAZ, POT, RMBS, TSL, ESI, BAC, GME, CRUS, X, TLT, DLR, VMW, GMCR, UNG

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

BMO - ES +6.00 and NQ +6.50 are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open...

TLT is up 78 cents and the EURO is up 71 pips...

Trading Down - TBT, GMCR, HAS, HLF, FAZ, FWLT, WYNN, CTXS

Trading Up - GOOG, ISRG, AMZN, BIDU, PCLN, FCX, DECK, SINA, CRM, FFIV, NFLX, WLT, URE, GS, CMG, CLF, AGU, MOS, WHR, TLT, TSL, V, DE, POT, BUCY, FDX, MA, VMW, VECO, SLB, NTES, MHS, FAS, X, LVS, SKX, CREE, TIE, MCD, DOW, BA, UCO, NYX, SNDK, AAPL, FSLR, JOYG, NTAP, PPDI, INFY, BIIB, RIMM, TEVA, COST, QCOM, MCHP, CHKP, AKAM

Friday, October 22, 2010

SPX Inches Higher as COMPQ Leads on Strength of BIDU, PCLN and RVBD...

The SPX rose +2.82 or +0.24% on Friday forming a spinning top at horizontal resistance.  The big move was in the COMPQ which was led by moves in RVBD, FFIV, NVDA, PCLN, LRCX, BIDU, SBUX, CTXS and EBAY.  Advancers led decliners 1.5 to 1 on the NYSE…
(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers    1,777       1,681
Decliners      1,177         956
(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction    Confirmation
VIX           Down          Yes – SPX
SOX         Up               Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Friday included RVBD, CMG, FFIV, PCLN, NETL, ESI, WFMI, UCO, USD, GES, PCP, SINA, CREE, HANS, CRM, PNC, VECO, LVS, USO, SWK, BYI, GR, ATW, LXK, MHS, CLF, UNP, HSY, CAM, AIV, NTRI, NDAQ, SKX, RMBS, FLS, BAC, HAS, TLT, ZION, HLF, AMX, GMCR, VMW, NYX, GME,NTES, TSL

Losing stocks included BUCY, CRUS, NFLX, FCX, IPI, UNG, STI, AKS, SWN, ICE, TBT, DOW, TIE, GS, POT, MOS, CHL, CAT, CF, DHR, JEC, ATI, SNDK, FA, AGU, UAL

Interest rates rose, 10 year notes fell, the EURO rose, the SOX closed higher and the VIX closed lower -0.49 at 18.78.

Five of nine sectors moved higher on Friday with Energy XLE +0.68% and Consumer Discretionary +0.55% leading all sectors.

Two weeks ago in the Weekly Wrap I mentioned that during the upcoming earnings season that selectivity would rule while institutions bought stocks with good earnings and guidance and sell stocks with weak earnings or guidance and as a result the broad indexes would likely trade in a narrow range. That forecast is unfolding on track as institutions have paid up big for stocks starting with GOOG last week. This week buying in AMZN, NFLX, BIDU, RVBD, CTXS, LRCX, CHKP, YHOO, FLIR, CA, BIDU, EBAY, INFA and CAKE help lift the COMPQ and offset weakness from AAPL. Institutions also bought DHR, PCP and SLB while selling ISRG, MICC, INFY, APOL, CRUS and BUCY.

The net result is that the SPX closed just below Monday’s close as did the COMPQ. The RUT rallied with the COMPQ on Friday but closed several points below its closing high on Monday.

The SPX has traded in a narrow range of 25 to 35 points over the past five weeks.  Look for this same pattern of narrow range consolidation to continue next week as institutions continue to be selective and buy stocks with strong earnings and guidance and sell stocks with weak earnings and guidance.

Charts to Watch
(click image to enlarge)

SPX
Resistance: 1,182, 1,190
Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Enter bearish entry signals on a close below of the low of the high day or a bounce down from resistance on stocks that are closing below support.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -2.05 –black spinning top
QCOM +0.20 – white spinning top does not confirm hammer
GOOG +4.01 –spinning top
BIDU +2.47 – white candle gap following positive earnings

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include NVDA, PCLN, LRCX, CA, BIDU, SBUX, CTXS, ISRG, EBAY, URBN, GRMN, HANS, MRVL, CHKP and AMZN.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: JOYG, FLIR, WCRX, APOL, DTV, DISH, AAPL, TEVA, ATVI, JBHT, NWSA, STX, CMCSA, STLD and MSFT.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, LVS, CMG, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, CAKE, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, UNP, URE, WLT, A, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, ATW, SLB, ACN, AMX, GES, NDAQ, UAL, USD, MA, HSY, CHL, FDX, NTRI, AMD, V, ATI, BA, DECK, GR, UCO, WHR, CF, GS, SPG, HANS, MOS, SWN, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NYX, ZION, FAS, NFLX, NTES, PCP, PNC, STI
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
BYI, INFA, MHS, NETL, SKX
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
BUCY
Staying Below 30 DMA
CLF, SNDK, SWK, CREE, AKS, TIE, FAZ, POT, RMBS, TSL, ESI, BAC, GME, CRUS, X, FFIV, TLT, DLR, VMW, CRM, GMCR, UNG

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Thursday, October 21, 2010

SPX Inches Higher Following NFLX, CAT, MCD Earnings...

The SPX rose +2.09 or +0.18% on Thursday forming a doji after Wednesday’s support bounce. The SPX closed above its 1,170 support level.  Advancers barely led decliners 1.04 to 1 on the NYSE…

(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers    1,518       1,016
Decliners      1,459       1,615

(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction    Confirmation
VIX         Down           Yes – SPX
SOX        Down           No – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Thursday included NFLX, STI, DHR, PCP, VMW, TBT, ICE, GR, PNC, MCD, SINA, FCX, MA, DOW, WMT, NTRI, AMD, FFIV, CRM, DE, FLS, BUCY, UAL, RVBD, AMX, WHR, POT, GME, ACN, FAZ, AGU, JEC, A, BA

Losing stocks included CRUS, UCO, TSL, HSY, UNG, BAC, SNDK, AKS, CREE, MHS, SKX, USO, NETL, X, SWK, ATI, CLF, VOD, DECK, LVS, CHL, GES, TIE, CAT, HAS, TLT, HLF, CSTR, PCLN, ZION, BYI, VECO, MOS, CAM, CMG, ESI, WLT, GMCR, NDAQ, UNP, SWN, FAS, IPI, RMBS

Interest rates rose, bonds fell, the EURO pulled back, the SOX closed lower and the VIX closed lower -0.52 at 19.27.

Five of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday with Industrials XLI +0.81% and Consumer Discretionary +0.58% leading all sectors.

The SPY rose +0.26 making a new intraday high and closing 28 cents above the high of the low day which was Tuesday.

HSY’s bull flag bounce failed in reaction to earnings.

Wednesday’s Bull Flag entries AGU, LVS, VOD, AIV, DOW, WLT, IPI, FLS, DE, AMX, FDX, ATI, SPG, HANS, MOS, WFMI, CF, BA, paused on Thursday and provided a second entry opportunity.

Bull Flag Entries on Thursday – DHR, FCX, GR, MCD, TBT, UAL, UPS

Bull Flag Patterns to Watch on Friday – SWK, HLF, SINA, HAS, PCLN, JEC, GES, USD, DECK, UCO, UNP, VECO, SNDK, CMG

SPX
Resistance: 1,182, 1,190
Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Enter bearish entry signals on a close below of the low of the high day or a bounce down from resistance on stocks that are closing below support.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +1.04 –black spinning top
QCOM -0.40 – hammer
GOOG +4.01 –doji
BIDU +2.47 – hammer

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include FLIR, EBAY, AMZN, CTXS, EXPE, BIDU, AKAM, WYNN, GILD, COST, ATVI, SIAL, CTSH, IACI and SPLS.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: XLNX, VRTX, ADBE, NVDA, WCRX, APOL, GRMN, TEVA, NTAP, HOLX, BRCM, PCLN, FWLT, ILMN and ISRG.

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, LVS, CMG, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, DE, DHR, DOW, UNP, URE, WLT, A, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, ATW, ACN, AMX, GES, NDAQ, UAL, USD, MA, HSY, CHL, FDX, NTRI, AMD, V, ATI, BA, DECK, GR, UCO, USO, WHR, CF, GS, SPG, HANS, MOS, SWN, UPS, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NYX, ZION, BUCY, FAS, NFLX, NTES, PCP
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
PNC, STI, WMT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
BYI, CLF, MHS, SKX, SNDK, SWK
Staying Below 30 DMA
CREE, AKS, NETL, TIE, FAZ, POT, RMBS, TSL, ESI, BAC, GME, CRUS, X, FFIV, TLT, DLR, VMW, CRM, GMCR, UNG

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

NFLX +20.85 in Pre-Market...Futures Higher...

BMO - ES +7.25 and NQ +17.50 are higher in pre-market trading about 90 minutes before the open...

TLT is up 9 cents and the EURO is up 68 pips.

NFLX +20.85, +21.60% is higher after reporting better than expected earnings...AMZN, PCLN and EBAY are also higher this morning

Bull Flag Patterns to Watch on ThursdayAMZN, SWK, HLF, SINA, HAS, PCLN, JEC, GES, USD, DECK, UCO, VECO, TBT


Bull Flag Patterns with Pending Earnings –
Oct 21 – CMG, DHR, FCX, GR, HSY, MCD, SNDK, UAL, UNP, UPS

Stay with the support bounce on these Bull Flag Entries on WednesdayAGU, LVS, VOD, AIV, DOW, WLT, IPI, FLS, DE, AMX, HSY, FDX, ATI, SPG, HANS, MOS, WFMI, CF, BA

SPX
Resistance: 1,182, 1,190
Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Quoting Down - ESI, VOD, ATW, POT, MA, SNDK, RVBD, FAZ, ISRG, XLNX, CERN, LRCX, MICC, NIHD, FLIR

Quoting Up - NFLX, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, CMG, EBAY, BIDU, CAT, FCX, VMW, MCD, GS, BUCY, CRUS, FDX, FFIV, CRM, DE, MOS, WHR, FAS, SWK, SINA, CSTR, AGU, USO, UPS, TSL, STI, RYAAY, CELG, FSLR, GIDL, LIFE, ORCLY MRVL, AMGN, CHKP, FISV, YHOO

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

SPX Rebounds...NFLX Rises 9.26% After Reporting Earnings...

The SPX rose +12.27 or +1.05% on Wednesday closing above the low of the high day and at the high of the low day (Tuesday is the low day) in what may turn out to be a one day bull flag pattern.  The SPX closed above its 1,170 support level.  Advancers led decliners 3.15 to 1 on the NYSE...
(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers    2,294       1,882
Decliners        726          788
(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction    Confirmation
VIX            Down          Yes – SPX
SOX          Up                Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Wednesday included UAL, UCO, WLT, MOS, AGU, LVS, URE, VECO, ESI, CSTR, CLF, FAS, BUCY, BA, IPI, TSL, AKS, GME, DOW, STI, FCX, AIV, GMCR, USO, ATI, NFLX, V, AMX, GR, CAM, LXK, CAT, HLF, NDAQ, SPG, VOD, FDX, DE, USD, NTES, WFMI, A, GS, UNP, CRUS, NTRI, JEC, TIE

Losing stocks included CREE, SKX, FAZ, AMD, SWK, MHS, POT, CMG, WHR, PNC, RMBS, BAC, ZION, TBT, CHL

Interest rates closed slightly lower, bonds rose, the EURO rose, the SOX closed higher and the VIX closed lower -0.84 at 19.79.

All nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday with Materials XLB +2.07% and Industrials XLI +1.42% leading all sectors.

SPY rose +1.14% closing at the high of the low day in a bull flag pattern and traded 200million shares.

NFLX rose +14.18 in after-hours trading after reporting adjusted EPS 78 cents vs. 72 cents consensus, revenuses above consensus.

Bull Flag Entries on Wednesday
AGU, LVS, VOD, AIV, DOW, WLT, IPI, FLS, DE, AMX, HSY, FDX, ATI, SPG, HANS, MOS, WFMI, CF


Post Earnings Bull Flag Entry -
BA
(click image to enlarge)
Bull Flag Patterns to Watch on Thursday – SWK, HLF, SINA, HAS, PCLN, JEC, GES, USD, DECK, UCO, VECO, TBT

Bull Flag Patterns with Pending Earnings
Oct 21 – CMG, DHR, FCX, GR, HSY, MCD, SNDK, UAL, UNP, UPS

SPX
Resistance: 1,182, 1,190
Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Enter bearish entry signals on a close below of the low of the high day or a bounce down from resistance on stocks that are closing below support.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +1.04 –white spinning top
QCOM +0.16 – inverted hammer
GOOG +0.15 – potential tombstone doji
BIDU -0.81 – black candle confirms bearish harami

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NIHD, GILD, NWSA, CHKP, ADSK, RIMM, WYNN, JOYG, LINTA, SIAL, WCRX, STLD, PCAR, RYAAY and EXPD.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: ISRG, ALTR, ORCL, VRTX, APOL, XLNX, ERTS, CELG, ATVI, BIDU, TEVA, FSLR, STX and CTXS.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, LVS, CMG, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, DE, DHR, DOW, SWK, UNP, URE, WLT, A, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, MHS, ATW, ACN, AMX, GES, NDAQ, UAL, USD, MA, HSY, CHL, FDX, NTRI, AMD, V, ATI, BA, DECK, GR, UCO, USO, WHR, BYI, CF, GS, SPG, HANS, MOS, SNDK, SWN, UPS, VECO, SKX, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NYX, ZION
Moving Above 30 DMA = 6
BUCY, CLF, FAS, NFLX, NTES, PCP
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
CREE
Staying Below 30 DMA
AKS, NETL, TIE, WMT, FAZ, POT, RMBS, TSL, ESI, STI, BAC, GME, CRUS, X, FFIV, TLT, PNC, DLR, VMW, CRM, GMCR, UNG

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

BMO - ES +5.25 NQ +12.00 futures are higher about 90 minutes before the open and point to a higher open....
Bonds are flat and the Euro is up 111 pips...

We will watch if Wednesday's price action stays below Tuesday's high...

Bull Flag Patterns to Watch on WednesdayHLF, AGU, LVS, SINA, VOD, AIV, DOW, WLT, HAS, IPI, FLS, PCLN, DE, JEC, GES, AMX, USD, HSY, FDX, ATI, DECK, UCO, SPG, HANS, MOS, VECO, TBT, WFMI

Bull Flag Patterns with Pending Earnings
Oct 20 – BA, SWK
Oct 21 – CMG, DHR, FCX, GR, HSY, MCD, SNDK, UAL, UNP, UPS

SPX
Resistance: 1,170, 1,182, 1,190
Support: 1,148, 1,130

Quoting Down - ISRG, APOL, SBUX, NTAP, CREE, POT, VECO, VMW, FFIV, AGU, MCD, WHR, LXK, UNP, UPS, HAS
 
Quoting Up - GOOG, BIDU, NIHD, GILD, LIFE, ALTR, EXPE, FCX, BA, GS, CLF, MOS, URE, CRM, TS, LVS, MA, X, SKX, DECK, AIV, USO, RVBD, VOD, TBT, TIE, FAS

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

SPX Breaks Low of the High Day...

Tuesday was the twenty third aniversary of the 1987 crash.  The SPX fell -18.81 or -1.59% on Tuesday closing below the low of the high day pattern from Monday’s new high close of 1,184,71and beginning a bull flag pattern.  The SPX closed below its 1,170 support level.  Decliners led advancers 4.77 to 1 on the NYSE... 
(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers      524           451
Decliners     2,501        2,234
(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX          Up              Yes – SPX
SOX         Down         Yes – COMPQ
 
Leading stocks on Tuesday included FAZ, SKX, ZION, GS, GME, MA, UNG, TLT, GMCR, STI, POT, PNC, ACN
 
Losing stocks included UCO, VMW, TSL, CLF, BUCY, TIE, GES, SINA, VECO, CREE, USO, LVS, BAC, X, FCX, AKS, MOS, HLF, RVBD, DECK, FAS, AGU, NETL, IPI, ATW, FLS, JEC, FDX, VOD, WLT, URE, SWN, ESI, AMX, MHS, NFLX, UAL, FFIV, PCLN, CAM, ATI, SPG, CRUS, CAT, WFMI, NTRI, SNDK, CRM, SWK, A, DHR, GR, USD, PCP, DOW, BA, DE, NDAQ
 
Interest rates closed slightly lower, bonds rose, the EURO fell, the SOX closed lower and the VIX closed higher +1.54 at 20.63.
 
Eight of nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday with XLU +0.19% as the only positive sector.
 
SPY pulled back -1.53% in a bull flag pattern and traded 280.4 million shares.

(click image to enlarge)
Bull Flag Patterns to Watch on WednesdayHLF, AGU, LVS, SINA, VOD, AIV, DOW, WLT, HAS, IPI, FLS, PCLN, DE, JEC, GES, AMX, USD, HSY, FDX, ATI, DECK, UCO, SPG, HANS, MOS, VECO, TBT, WFMI

Bull Flag Patterns with Pending Earnings
Oct 20 – BA, SWK
Oct 21 – CMG, DHR, FCX, GR, HSY, MCD, SNDK, UAL, UNP, UPS

SPX
Resistance: 1,170, 1,182, 1,190
Support: 1,148, 1,130

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Enter bearish entry signals on a close below of the low of the high day or a bounce down from resistance on stocks that are closing below support.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -8.51 – gap down white spinning top confirms hanging man
QCOM -0.27 – doji at 30 DMA
GOOG -9.88 – doji potential bearish harami
BIDU -2.58 – bearish harami

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NTAP, ILMN, LBTYA, CMCSA, VRTX, DISHK APOL, IACI and INTC.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: URBN, JOYG, STX, WYNN, STLD, PDCO, CTXS, AMZN, SPLS, MSFT, FLIR, YHOO, MICC, LIFE and AAPL.

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, LVS, CMG, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, DE, DHR, DOW, SWK, UNP, URE, WLT, A, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, MHS, ATW, ACN, AMX, GES, NDAQ, UAL, USD, MA, HSY, CHL, FDX, NTRI, AMD, V, ATI, BA, DECK, GR, UCO, USO, WHR, BYI, GS, SPG, HANS, MOS, SNDK, SWN, UPS, VECO, SKX, CSTR, CREE, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NYX, ZION
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
AKS, BUCY, CLF, FAS, NETL, NFLX, NTES, PCP, TIE, WMT
Staying Below 30 DMA
FAZ, POT, RMBS, TSL, ESI, STI, BAC, GME, CRUS, X, FFIV, TLT, PNC, DLR, VMW, CRM, GMCR, UNG

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Gaps to the Downside as Futures Point to a Lower Open After AAPL Reports...

ES -8.50 and NQ -27.00 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open following lower Q1 guidance from AAPL...AAPL is -17.05...

TLT is down 57 cents and the Euro is down 80 pips...

IBM is -5.33 following earnings...

SPX
Resistance: 1,182, 1,190
Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Quoting Down - AAPL, GOOG, VMW, PCLN, AMZN, CELG, ISRG, FSLR, NTAP, MICC, RIMM, BIDU, CTXS, AKAM, FCX, MA, NFLX, FFIV, CRM, CMG, URE, CLF, X, CAT, CSTR, AGU, WHR, GS, WFMI, MHS, USO, BUCY, MOS, VOD, TLT, VECO

Quoting Up - PCP, HANS

Monday, October 18, 2010

AAPL Down in After Hours...SPY Lower in After Hours...

The SPX made a new high close on Monday prior to AAPL earnings...
(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers    2,010       1,745
Decliners      1,027          901
(click image to enlarge)
The VIX failed to confirm the higher close at the same time the SOX failed to confirm the higher close in the COMPQ...
Index    Direction    Confirmation
VIX         Up              No – SPX
SOX        Down         No – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Monday included FAS, UCO, HAS, PNC, ESI, ZION, BAC, NDAQ, URE, USO, SWK, NYX, GS, CRUS, WHR, ICE, AIV, X, DOW, GMCR, STI, ATW, CMG, AMX, VMW, FLS, SWN, TLT, WMT, JEC, SPG, MA

Losing stocks included FAZ, FFIV, VECO, NTRI, CRM, MOS, AMD, CLF, UNG, TBT, FCX, CREE, PCP, NFLX, IPI, WLT, TIE, USD, POT, AGU, RVBD, CSTR, NETL, DECK, SNDK CAM, RMBS

Interest rates fell, bonds rose, the EURO rose slightly, the SOX closed lower and the VIX closed higher +0.06 at 19.09.

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Monday as the SPX formed a new high close at 1,184.71. Financial stocks XLF +2.27% led all sectors after lagging the SPX for the last two days.

Individual stocks like C, ZION and JPM are showing post earnings setups while WFC, RF and BAC may have short term potential between now and their respective earings release...

Advancers led decliners 1.95 to 1 on the NYSE.

SPY traded 141.1 million shares.

After the close AAPL released better than expected earnings and lower Q1 guidance on EPS and margin.  AAPL fell -19.50 in after hours trading, IBM fell -4.73, PCLN -4.43 and AMZN -3.56.  Look for potential bearish gap setups on these stocks...
SPX
Resistance: 1,182, 1,190
Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Wait to take bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a close below of the low of the high day.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +3.26 – potential hanging man
QCOM -0.29 – black spinning top
GOOG +16.26 – large white candle did not confirm potential hanging man
BIDU +4.74 – large white candle

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: BIDU, GOOG, STX, CELG, VRTX, AMGN, ISRG, HOLX, APOL, FSLR, PPDI, ILMN, BIIB, STLD and DELL.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: MICC, NIHD, AKAM, LINTA, YHOO, WCRX, INTU, EXPE, MRVL, ERTS, NWSA, CTXS, ORLY, ATVI and ORLY.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, LVS, NFLX, CMG, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, DE, DHR, DOW, PCP, SWK, UNP, URE, WLT, WMT, A, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, AMX, GES, NDAQ, UAL, USD, MA, NETL, ESI, HSY, CHL, FDX, NTRI, AMD, TIE, V, ATI, BA, DECK, GR, UCO, USO, WHR, BYI, CLF, GS, SPG, HANS, MOS, SNDK, SWN, UPS, VECO, SKX, CSTR, CREE, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NYX, NTES, WMT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
AKS, FAS, ZION
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
FAZ, RMBS
Staying Below 30 DMA
POT, TSL, ESI, STI, BAC, GME, CRUS, X, FFIV, TLT, PNC, DLR, VMW, CRM, GMCR, UNG

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up