Friday, August 26, 2016

SPX Rises following Yellen Comments, Fall after Fischer Speaks...Volatility Jumps Intra-day on Friday...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on FridayXLV, XLF and XLK were the strongest sectors while XLU was the weakest sector.  Oil futures eased down .09 to close at 47.29.  Oil is forming a potential bull flag.

For the week ended August 26,
XLF +0.42%, XLK +0.06%, XLB -0.53%,
SPY -0.57%,
Lagging sectors XLI -0.61%, XLY -0.69%, XLP -1.11%, XLE -1.46%, XLV -1.73%, XLU -2.23%,


Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,820 to 1,205 on the NYSE and led 1,487 to 1,326 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +4
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +3


SPY down .41 at 217.29 on 122.5 million shares, 106% above average volume
VIX up .02 at 13.65
TLT down .81 at 138.36…on 12.9 million shares, 107% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
QQQ +0.15%, SPY -0.19%, IWM -0.20%, DIA -0.30%,



Earnings reactions on Friday
ADSK +5.17 +8.12%
ULTA -16.60, -6.12%,
GME -3.42, -10.63%,









Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: 













______________________










Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed down below 80 at 72, defensive.  SPY is above short-term support, take defensive action if SPY breaks below 217, otherwise trend is short-term trend is neutral and stay positioned accordingly.

56 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and three were unchanged on Friday.

58 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
BMRN, CA, CHKP, VRSK

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
ORLY, SBAC, TMUS, ULTA, VOD


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Thursday, August 25, 2016

SPX Holds Support...Advancers Lead...Oil Bounces...

Four of nine sectors moved higher on ThursdayXLB, XLK and XLF were the strongest sectors while XLV was again the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose .58 to close at 47.38.   Oil is forming a potential bull flag.


Breadth strengthened as advancers led 1,632 to 1,316 on the NYSE and led 1,341 to 1,176 on the NASDAQ.

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +4
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +3
Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3


SPY down .15 at 217.70 on 67.4 million shares, 13% above average volume
VIX up .18 at 13.63
TLT down .53 at 139.17…on 5.5 million shares, 11% below average volume


Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.20%, SPY -0.07%, QQQ -0.16%, DIA -0.16%,

IWM pulled back for a second day formed a piercing line candle and is in a bull flag price pattern.  SPY, QQQ and DIA are at their short-term support of their current 15-day sideways channel

Consumer Discretionary stocks DG -16.18, -17.63%, SIG -12.05, -12.63% and DLTR -9.43, -9.93% gapped down following negative earnings reactions.  Big losers on Wednesday also included ESRX, STJ, MNK, ENDP, CVS, ABC and MCK.

Positive earnings reactions on Thursday included TIF +4.41, +6.40% and BURL +2.45, +3.12%


After the close ADSK +2.10, +3.30% on a positive EPS reaction and ULTA -3.45, -1.27% was down on a negative reaction.


Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: MPC, URBN, EA, BX, PCAR, GS, MU, CHTR, LB, M, KSS, CERN, ROST, TMUS, CTRP, KMX, AAPL, PCLN, KMI, JD, MAR, HRL, INTC, WMB, JCP, TWTR, IWM,

Bull Flag Bounces include: WRK, CBL, AAL, SBAC, ETFC,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: CBL, VLO, CCL, ADBE, TIF, PAYX, ZION, NFLX, MSFT, AAL, MPC, C, PAYX, WFC, HLT, JPM, KHC, ADBE, SPY, FAS, XLF, NVDA, TSN, MAT, HPE, STX, CBG, AVGO, URI, WDC, QQQ, GPRO, JWN, RL, CAT,

Horizontal Breakout include: TIF, WRK, ZION, CHK,


New Highs include: TIF, BURL, SWKS, BAC, AMBA, MS, NTAP, XLNX, SYMC, PCAR, STT, ADSK, AVGO, AMAT,


______________________


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed down below 80 at 79.17, defensive.  SPY is above short-term support, take defensive action if SPY breaks below 217, otherwise the short-term trend is neutral and stay positioned accordingly.

50 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and on Thursday.

60 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
ATVI, SBAC,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
ALXN, BMRN, CA, CSX, DISCA, WBA


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

SPY Pulls Back from High Stays Above Support...Healthcare Leads SPX, NDX Lower...VIX Jumps...Oil Falls...

All nine sectors moved lower on WednesdayXLU, XLF and XLP were the strongest sectors while XLV was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell .77 to close at 46.80.  Oil is forming a potential bull flag.


Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,085 to 884 on the NYSE and led 1,680 to 884 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +3
Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +7


SPY down 1.12 at 217.85 on 71.7 million shares, 19% above average volume
VIX up 1.07 at 13.45
TLT down .33 at 139.70…on 6.0 million shares, 6% below average volume


Technical Commentary:
IWM -0.81%, QQQ -0.65%, SPY -0.51%, DIA -0.35%,


IWM pulled back from Tuesday’s higher high making day one of a potential bull flag pattern.  SPY, QQQ and DIA sold off to their short-term support of their current 14-day sideways channel on Wednesday.  At Wednesday’s close SPY is down just 0.80% from Tuesday’s new intra-day high.  Gold fell $14, its largest one-day drop since Aug 5.

SPX big losers included materials stocks NEM, FCX, AA, CF, MOS, FMC, ALB, OI and NUE, and healthcare stocks ENDP, MYL, MNK, VRTX, AGN, PRGO, ALXN, REGN, PKN, CELG and BIIB on Wednesday.

While Wednesday’s action is correctly viewed as price fluctuation and not trend change, one should prepare to become defensive if today’s pullback continues and breaks support.

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include:  AAL, MPC, CBL, URBN, WRK, PCAR, CHTR, LB, SBAC, M, KSS, CERN, GS, ROST, ETFC, TMUS, CTRP, KMX, AAPL, PCLN, KMI, JD, MAR, MU, HRL, INTC, WMB, JCP, TWTR,

Bull Flag Bounces include:

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: ZION, MSFT, AAL, MPC, C, PAYX, WFC, BX, HLT, JPM, CHK, KHC, ADBE, SPY, IWM, FAS, XLF, NVDA, TSN, MAT, HPE, NFLX, STX, CBG, AVGO, URI, WDC, QQQ, GPRO, JWN, RL, CAT,

Horizontal Breakout include: VLO, CCL, TIF, PAYX, BAC,

New Highs include: AMBA, MS, NTAP, EA, XLNX, SYMC, PCAR, STT, TIF, ADSK, AVGO, SWKS, AMAT, ULTA, BURL,


______________________


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed down in the upper zone at 85, bullish, prepare to become defensive.

16 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Wednesday.

64 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
SBUX,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 8
CELG, CTSH, INTU, ISRG, LBTYA, LMCA, REGN, VRTX,


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Small Cap IWM Leads Bounce as SPY Finishes Just Short of All-time High...Oil Finds Buyers Forms Spinning Top...

Seven of nine sectors moved higher on TuesdayXLB, XLE and XLY were the strongest sectors while XLU was the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose .18 to close at 47.57.  Buyers stepped up on Tuesday after Monday’s sell off in oil.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led 1,996 to 965 on the NYSE and led 1,629 to 915 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +3
Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +6


SPY up .44 at 218.97 on 53.3 million shares, 12% below average volume
VIX up .11 at 12.38
TLT up .15 at 140.03…on 6.8 million shares, 2% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.70%, SPY +0.20%, QQQ +0.18%, DIA +0.10%,


SPY bounced on Tuesday but ran into resistance at the Aug 15 intra-day high before closing at its second highest close at 218.97.  This makes day 13 in its current sideways range of just 2.48Momentum continues to be slow in the broad market as individual stocks continue to dominate since July 11.

IWM closed higher while SPY, QQQ and DIA closed just below recent highs on Tuesday

BBY +6.43, +19.60% exceeded estimates and led the SPX on Tuesday.

Big movers on Tuesday included energy stocks CHK, MRO, RRC, SWN, WMB, APC, ENDP, MUR, DVN and MPC. 

Tuesday’s other movers included CF, DLPH, ENDP, MOS, LEN, DHI, PHM, SIG, AMAT, RCL, SPLS, CSRA, MON, URI, PVH, AMG, EMR, MNK, ULTA, CCL, BBBY, COH, FLR and HAS.


Losers were led by SJM -12.60, -8.07%, after earnings included a 7% revenue decline. Other losers included MYL, KLAC, DLR, KR, LMT NOC, CAG, WFM, CPB, PGR, PCG LNT and LLL.


There are still a large number of bull flags in the broad market, look at your stock list for potential setups for bull flag price patterns.

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include:  XLV, CBL, CHTR, JCP, SBAC, BXP, XLF, TMUS, TWTR, CTRP, M, KSS, ETFC, CERN, KMX, AAPL, PCLN, IBM, URBN, WRK, MPC, AAL, DISCA, KMI, JD,

Bull Flag Bounces include: NVDA, AMBA, WMB, VLO, CHK, QQQ, GPRO, MSFT, GRMN, JWN, RL, CAT, ADBE

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: SPY, FAS, NVDA, ZION, TSN, INTC, PAYX, WDC, MAT, C, WFC, BX, HLT, HPE, NFLX, MRK, JPM, STX, KHC, CELG, BIIB, CBG,

Horizontal Breakout include: IWM, CCL, AVGO, URI, AMBA, ALXN, TIF, PAYX, WDC, BAC,


New Highs include: NTAP, NVDA, XLNX, AVGO, MS, SYMC, SWKS, PCAR, AMAT, JD, ADSK, STT, TIF, EA, ULTA, BURL, MAR, MU, LB, HRL, GS, ROST, 


______________________


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 89, bullish.

67 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Tuesday.

71 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
AKAM, CA, CTSH, INTU,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
MYL,


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Monday, August 22, 2016

Healthcare Stocks Make Gains as Oil Stocks Drop as Oil Falls...VIX Rises...

Three of nine sectors moved higher and two were unchanged on MondayXLU, XLV and XLP were the strongest sectors while XLE was the weakest sector.  Oil futures dropped 1.73 to close at 47.39CL oil futures formed a bearish engulfing pattern suggesting a short-term pullback.


Breadth strengthened as advancers led 1,476 to 1,460 on the NYSE and led 1,386 to 1,156 on the NASDAQ.

Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +3
Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +6
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +1


SPY down .01 at 218.53 on 61.3 million shares, 0% above average volume
VIX up .93 at 12.27
TLT up 1.17 at 139.88…on 5.5 million shares, 16% below average volume


Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.23%, QQQ +0.08%, SPY -0.00%, DIA -0.11%,


Following a 16-day sideways range in July, SPY is finished its 12th day in a new sideways range of just 2.48.  Momentum has slowed down in the broad market as individual stocks continue to dominate since July 11. 

Big movers on Monday included healthcare stocks INCY, BMRN, REGN, ALXN, VRTX, CELG, HUM, ILMN and DVA. 

Monday’s other movers CF, WFM, HRL, MAT, VMC, CMG, CBG, SBUX, CBS, NAVI, HBAN, MLM, ALB, ETR and PSA.

Losers were led by oil stocks MRO, HAL, RIG, OKE, MUR, NFX, HP, DO, RRC, PXD, TSO, MPC, FTI, SWN, HES, BHI, KMI, COP, NOV, SLB and NBL.

IWM and QQQ moved higher while SPY and DIA continued to grind sideways

There are still a large number of bull flags in the broad market, look at your stock list for potential setups for bull flag price patterns.



Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include:  AMBA, C, QQQ, GPRO, XLV, CBL, CHTR, JCP, SBAC, BXP, MSFT, XLF, TMUS, TWTR, CTRP, M, KSS, SBAC, ETFC, CERN, COST, KMX, AAPL, PCLN, IBM, VLO, CHK, URBN, WRK, MPC, WMB, AAL, DISCA, GRMN, KMI, JWN, RL, CAT, JD, ADBE,

Bull Flag Bounces include: NVDA, MAT, CBG, ORLY, ALXN, CELG,


Horizontal Breakout Setups include: ZION, TSN, ALXN, AVGO, INTC, TIF, PAYX, WDC, MAT, SPY, IWM, CCL, BAC, WFC, BX, HLT, HPE, NFLX, MRK, URI, JPM, STX, FAS, KHC, KMI, CELG, BIIB,

Horizontal Breakout include:


New Highs include: NTAP, LB, XLNX, AVGO, HRL, MS, SYMC, GS, SWKS, PCAR, AMAT, ROST, MU, JD, ADSK, STT, TIF, EA, ULTA, BURL, MAR,


______________________


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 89, bullish.

48 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and three were unchanged on Monday.

68 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
BMRN, CSCO, REGN

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral