Futures Point to a Lower Open...

10:00 am EDT - U.S. did not follow the overnight trading direction...after opening lower due to futures trading...markets are rallying...SPY down 4 cents...QQQQ is up 24 cents...DIA is up 4 cents...IWM is up 2 cents...other stocks also higher this morning: BA, ESI, ALGT, PCLN, DEC, USD, SNDK, NFLX, BDX, UAUA, VAR, GME, PCP, HANS, FUQI, SW, V, VPRT, DHR, WMT, K, SYNA, MYGN, GR, FLS, DE, SPG, MHS


BMO – ES -8.00 and NQ -11.75 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. AAPL -1.60, AMZN -0.62, GOOG -3.19 and BIDU +0.18 are mostly lower in pre-market trading.

At the open we want to see if  the U.S. markets also trade to the downside. At times the U.S. markets reverse the direction of overnight trading shortly after the open, so watch for this and trade accordingly.

This may be the beginning of the potential pull back we were talking about last week, so be prepared and protect yourself according to your rules.

Biotech stocks were among the strong NASDAQ stocks on Friday. Following Sunday’s passage of the healthcare bill, watch etf’s like XLV, BBH and XBI for a sense if traders are reacting negatively. It may be that this was already factored into the price. Watch support levels and the trend.

Wednesday through Friday is the high day on many charts.  Watch for a break of the low of the high day or short term support.

The Euro is down 64 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting down 1.37 in electronic trading. XLE is down 66 cents in pre-market trading.

SPY is down 66 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 15 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

Look at these Charts

(click image to enlarge)

SPX

Support = 1,150, 1,139

Resistance = 1,178

Trading Down: FCX, POT, MOS, IPI, AGU, V, X
Trading Up: BA, GME

At the Open on Monday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FAS –
X –
POT –
CREE –
UAUA –
SNDK –
AAPL –
ALGT –
ALTR –
NFLX –
RIMM –
STX –
SHLD –
BUCY –
BA –
DOW –
DE –
FCX –
WHR –
ZION –
STT –
GMCR –
AGU –
IPI –
DHR –
V –
NVDA –
AMD –
PCLN –
DECK –
CAT –
PCP –
UNP –
CF –
ACN –

SPX Narrow Trading Range Pulls Back From Resistance...

DJIA 10,741.98 -37.19 -0.35%
SP500 1,159.90 -5.93 -0.51%
COMPQ 2,374.41 -16.87 -0.71%
Russell 2000 673.89 -7.72 -1.13%

Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 901 1,048
Declining 2,147 1,666

Oil $80.50 -2.04 – May contract
Gold $1,107.60 -20.60 – April contract
SOX 355.67 -5.97
VIX 16.97 +0.35

Index Direction Confirmation
VIX Up Yes – SPX
SOX Down Yes – COMPQ

Strongest Sectors: XLV -0.04%…XLU -0.11%...XLP -0.29%

Weakest Sectors: XLE -1.20%...XLB -1.09%...XLF -0.66%

All nine sectors moved lower on Friday. Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials were stronger than the SPX -0.51%.

Sector Watch
Up Trending: XLY, XLI, XLP
Horizontal Breakout: XLF
Sideways: XLE, XLU, XLB, XLK, XLV
Down Trending:

Key Resistance Levels
1,178 = Fib extension
Key Support Levels
1,155 = 1,119 BO chart target – Dec 23
1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low
1,125 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low

The short term trend turned neutral on Friday as many stocks and broad indices turned lower and finished near or below price lows on Wednesday. We believe this could signal a short term correction. Many short term traders will look to exit bullish trades or take bearish trades on a break of the low of the high day or a break below short term support.


I alerted listeners in the Weekly Wrap on Friday to be prepared for a potential pull back and issue the same alert here. Trade according to your rules going into the new week.

Look at these Charts

(click image to enlarge)

Potential Bearish Entry

(click image to enlarge)

ADBE is scheduled to report earnings on March 23.

Guidance:
The SPX closed at 1,159.90 while forming a bearish engulfing pattern following an inside day on Thursday.

The VIX closed higher and did confirm the lower close on Friday.

The SPX, INDU, COMPQ, RUT, TRAN and SOX all moved lower. Each index formed a high day on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday.

Be aware if the broad indexes do move lower that it is likely that approximately 75% of stocks will move lower also. Be prepared to protect your short term positions if prices move lower.

May options contracts start trading Monday in many underlying stocks.

The short term trend is neutral.
The four-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch trade with the trend and follow your rules.

Adjust your stops according to your rules for up and down trending trades.

AAPL -2.40
QCOM -0.38
GOOG -6.40
BIDU +4.99
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include ROST, GENZ, AMGN, VRTX, CEPH, HANS, TEVA, EXPD, FLIR, CTAS, ESRX, GILD, FLEX, PPDI, BIDU, BIIB, CTXS, MICC, ILMN, PCAR, FWLT, SRCL, ORLY, HSIC, CHRW, SPLS, EXPE, LRCX, MSFT INTU, PDCO and SBUX.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
CBST, DLB, NFLX, BA, UAUA, AGU, CAM, CREE, VPRT, WHR, WLT, BDX, CAT, GR, ICE, PCLN, PCP, SPG, SWK, UNP, USO, V, BAC, DE, DHR, ESI, URE, HANS, JEC, WMT, FAS, GES, GMCR, SNDK, TDG, USD, UYG, X, DECK, MELI, POT, FLS, HDB, HLF, MHS, MYGN, VAR, CGA, IPI, FCX, ATI, MOS, WAB, GS, DOW, AMD, AMX, WFC, ATW, ACN, CEDC, MA, PWRD, ZION, BKC, MCD, ALGT, GME, SYNA, AMED, WCG, STT, K, CHL
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
ATW, CAM SYNA, CGA
Staying Below 30 DMA
MOS, FUQI, HEAT, SWN, TSL, BYI, FAZ, UNG, MON

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Flat Open...

BMO – ES +2.50 and NQ +3.50 futures are slightly higher in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to higher open. AAPL -0.58, AMZN +0.15, GOOG -2.95 and BIDU +12.30 are mixed in pre-market trading.

Thursday’s trading and this morning’s pre-market trading seems to indicate a continuation of trading in a relatively narrow range between 1,160 and 1,170.

March options expire today. Wednesday is the high day.

The Euro is down 60 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting down 52 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 9 cents in pre-market trading.

SPY is down 17 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 4 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

Look at these Charts

(click image to enlarge)

SPX
Support = 1,150
Resistance = 1,178

Trading Down: SYNA, FAS, TSL, ZION, MON, WLT, CL, BUCY
Trading Up: BA, PCP, POT, HANS, MOS, ATI, V,AGU, X, GME, UNP

At the Open on Friday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FAS –
X –
POT –
CREE –
UAUA –
SNDK –
AAPL –
ALGT –
ALTR –
NFLX –
RIMM –
STX –
SHLD –
BUCY –
BA –
DOW –
DE –
FCX –
WHR –
ZION –
STT –
GMCR –
AGU –
IPI –
DHR –
V –
NVDA –
AMD –
PCLN –
DECK –
CAT –
PCP –
UNP –
CF –
ACN –

SPX Pause as INDU Rises...

DJIA 10,779.17 +45.50 +0.42%
SP500 1,165.83 -0.38 -0.03%
COMPQ 2,391.28 +2.19 +0.09%
Russell 2000 681.61 -2.37 -0.35%


Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,283 1,159
Declining 1,746 1,530


Oil $82.10 -0.83
Gold $1,127.40 +3.40
SOX 361.64 -2.42
VIX 16.62 -0.29

Index Direction Confirmation
VIX Down No – SPX
SOX Down No – COMPQ

The VIX made it lowest close since May 16, 2008.

Strongest Sectors: XLV +0.68%…XLI +0.68%...XLK +0.13%
Weakest Sectors: XLE -1.49%...XLB -0.71%...XLF -0.57%

Four of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Healthcare, Industrials, Technology and Consumer Staples were stronger than the SPX -0.03%.

Sector Watch
Up Trending: XLY, XLI, XLP
Horizontal Breakout: XLF
Sideways: XLE, XLU, XLB, XLK, XLV
Down Trending:

Key Resistance Levels
1,178 = Fib extension
Key Support Levels
1,155 = 1,119 BO chart target – Dec 23
1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31Low
1,125 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low

Guidance:

The SPX closed at 1,165.83 while forming an inside day. Breakout continues t hold with an SPX chart target at 1,255 over about 9 weeks.

The VIX closed lower and did not confirm the slightly lower close on Thursday.

The Dow TRAN, INDU and COMPQ moved higher. Wednesday is still the high day in the broad indexes

Friday is quarterly triple witching expiration of options.

The short term 5-week trend is up.
The four-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch trade with the trend and follow your rules.

Adjust your stops according to your rules for up and down trending trades.

AAPL +0.53
QCOM +1.53
GOOG +0.84
BIDU -2.29
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include QCOM, TEVA, HOLX, BBBY, ERTS, SYMC, EBAY, CHRW, AMGN, ATVI, CTXS, EXPD, BRCM, AMZN, INFY, CTAS, APOL, VRSN, JBHT, RYAAY, NTAP, FLIR, PPDI, LINTA, IACI, ADBE, DTV, GENZ, ESRX, FSLR, CMCSA, GILD, CEPH, CELG, CTSH, HSIC, LIFE, YHOO, INTU, CSCO, URBN, AAPL and CHKP.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
CBST, DLB, NFLX, BA, UAUA, AGU, CAM, CREE, VPRT, WHR, WLT, BDX, CAT, GR, ICE, PCLN, PCP, SPG, SWK, UNP, USO, V, BAC, DE, DHR, ESI, URE, HANS, JEC, WMT, FAS, GES, GMCR, SNDK, TDG, USD, UYG, X, DECK, MELI, POT, FLS, HDB, HLF, MHS, MYGN, VAR, CGA, IPI, FCX, ATI, MOS, WAB, GS, DOW, AMD, AMX, WFC, ATW, ACN, CEDC, MA, PWRD, ZION, BKC, MCD, ALGT, GME, SYNA, AMED, WCG, STT, K
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1CHL
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
MOS
Staying Below 30 DMA
FUQI, HEAT, SWN, TSL, BYI, FAZ, UNG, MON

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Flat Open...

BMO – ES -0.50 and NQ +0.00 futures are near unchanged in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. AAPL -0.22, AMZN -0.01, GOOG -0.69 and BIDU -2.95 are slightly lower in pre-market trading.

Tuesday’s breakout held on Wednesday. If this breakout holds 1,255 over about a nine week period is the Chart Signals price target for the SPX.

Options and futures expire on Friday. Index trading closes today. Wednesday is now the high day. Watch to see if Thursday’s trading is able to stay above Friday’s high of 1,153.41.

The Euro is down 60 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting down 62 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 9 cents in pre-market trading.

SPY is up 5 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 2 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX. Remember XLF closed above horizontal resistance on Tuesday after trading in a sideways range since October…its breakout coinciding with the breakout of SPX as we have been saying in Chart Signals.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

Look at these Charts
GES, CREE, DE, X, ZION

SPX
Support = 1,150, 1,139,
Resistance = 1,178

Trading Down: TSL, FAS, USO, CAT, ZION
Trading Up: GME, GES, CHL, BKC, CREE, DE, X

At the Open on Thursday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FAS –
X –
POT –
CREE –
UAUA –
SNDK –
AAPL –
ALGT –
ALTR –
NFLX –
RIMM –
STX –
SHLD –
BUCY –
BA –
DOW –
DE –
FCX –
WHR –
ZION –
STT –
GMCR –
AGU –
IPI –
DHR –
V –
NVDA –
AMD –
PCLN –
DECK –
CAT –
PCP –
UNP –
CF –
ACN –

SPX Rises as Breakout Continues...

DJIA 10,733.67 +47.69 +0.45%
SP500 1,166.21 +6.75 +0.58%
COMPQ 2,389.09 +11.08 +0.47%
Russell 2000 683.98 +4.40 +0.65%


Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 2,169 1,607
Declining 891 1,097


Oil $82.93 +1.13
Gold $1,124.00 +1.80
SOX 364.06 +4.19
VIX 16.91 -0.78

Index Direction Confirmation
VIX Down Yes – SPX
SOX Up Yes – COMPQ

The VIX made it lowest close since May 16, 2008.

Strongest Sectors: XLF +1.21%…XLE +1.10%...XLB +0.56%
Weakest Sectors: XLV +0.03%...XLI +0.16%...XLK +0.31%

All nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday for the second straight day. Financials and Energy were stronger than the SPX +0.58%.

Sector Watch
Up Trending: XLY, XLI, XLP
Horizontal Breakout: XLF
Sideways: XLE, XLU, XLB, XLK, XLV
Down Trending:

Key Resistance Levels
1,178 = Fib extension
Key Support Levels
1,155 = 1,119 BO chart target – Dec 23
1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low
1,125 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low

The SPX rose again on Wednesday on a continuation move following Tuesday's breakout of resistance.

The INDU made a new high close as did the TRAN confirming the primary up trend of the last year under Dow Theory.
 
Guidance:

The SPX made a new high close 1,166.21 while forming another white candle. If this breakout holds the SPX chart target is 1,255 over about 9 weeks.

The VIX closed lower and did confirm the higher close on Wednesday.

The RUT, COMPQ and Dow Transports moved higher above horizontal resistance. INDU closed just above its January resistance. Wednesday is the new high day in the broad indexes

This week is quarterly triple witching expiration.

The short term 5-week trend is up.
The four-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch trade with the trend and follow your rules.

Adjust your stops according to your rules for up and down trending trades.

AAPL -0.33
QCOM -0.11
GOOG +0.36
BIDU -6.21
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include GRMN, CELG, LINTA, LBTYA, FAST, CERN, DELL,NVDA, ORLY, NIHD, MICC, INFY, AMAT, PCAR, CTAS, KLAC, XLNX, AKAM, ADBE, PDCO, ATVI, ERTS, FISV, CA, LLTC, SBUX, INTC, ORCL, ADP, STX, MCHP, FLEX, HANS, MSFT, YHOO, IACI, CHRW, ADSK, EBAY, CTSH, COST, SIAL, LOGI, EXPE, MXIM, ALTR, CMCSA, PCLN, LRCX, PAYX, CSCO, HSIC, SRCL and SPLS.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
CBST, DLB, NFLX, BA, UAUA, AGU, CAM, CREE, VPRT, WHR, WLT, BDX, CAT, GR, ICE, PCLN, PCP, SPG, SWK, UNP, USO, V, BAC, DE, DHR, ESI, URE, HANS, JEC, WMT, FAS, GES, GMCR, SNDK, TDG, USD, UYG, X, DECK, FUQI, MELI, POT, FLS, HDB, HLF, MHS, MYGN, VAR, CGA, IPI, FCX, ATI, MOS, WAB, GS, DOW, AMD, AMX, WFC, ATW, ACN, CEDC, MA, PWRD, ZION, BKC, MCD, ALGT, GME, SYNA, AMED, HEAT, WCG, CHL, STT, K
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
CHL, FUQI, HEAT
Staying Below 30 DMA
SWN, TSL, BYI, FAZ, UNG, MON

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Slightly Higher Open...

BMO – ES +1.50 and NQ +2.00 futures are slightly higher in pre-market trading pointing to a slightly higher open. AAPL +0.30, AMZN +0.90, GOOG +1.25 and BIDU +1.84 are up in pre-market trading.

If Tuesday’s breakout holds, the new Chart Signals price target on the SPX is 1,255 over about a nine week period.

Old resistance becomes new support is the operative for Wednesday. Prices broke through resistance on Tuesday proving that sellers were not yet willing to fully commit at January’s resistance level. Tuesday is now the high day. Watch to see if Wednesday’s trading is able to stay above Friday’s high of 1,153.41.

The Euro is up 5 pips in overnight trading. Oil is quoting up 67 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 20 cents in pre-market trading.

SPY is up 26 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 5 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX. Remember XLF closed above horizontal resistance on Tuesday after trading in a sideways range since October…its breakout coinciding with the breakout of SPX as we have been saying in Chart Signals.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

Look at these Charts

WLT, SPG, SBUX, ZION

SPX
Support = 1,150, 1,139
Resistance = 1,178

Trading Down: FUQI, DECK, SPG, FAZ
Trading Up: POT, MON, FAS, FCX, GS, BUCY, IPI, MOS, X, WLT, V, GMCR, USO, CAT, WFC, MCD, TSL, ALGT

At the Open on Wednesday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FAS –
X –
POT –
CREE –
UAUA –
SNDK –
AAPL –
ALGT –
ALTR –
NFLX –
RIMM –
STX –
SHLD –
BUCY –
BA –
DOW –
DE –
FCX –
WHR –
ZION –
STT –
GMCR –
AGU –
IPI –
DHR –
V –
NVDA –
AMD –
PCLN –
DECK –
CAT –
PCP –
UNP –
CF –
ACN –