Thursday, September 29, 2016

Indices Reverse Wednesday's Gains...Short-term Defensive...

All ten sectors moved lower on ThursdayXLE, XLY and XLK were the strongest sectors while XLV was again the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose .56 to close at 47.72.

Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,421 to 645 on the NYSE and led 2,149 to 688 on the NASDAQ.

Thursday – weakened, decliners led, +0
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led, +8
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +1
Friday – weakened, decliners led, +1


SPY down 1.96 at 214.68 on 128.0 million shares, 38% above average volume
VIX up 1.63 at 14.02
TLT up .35 at 138.75…on 8.3 million shares, 7% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
QQQ -0.72%, SPY -0.90%, DIA -1.03%, IWM -1.46%,


The NDX fell -36.97 lead by weakness in MSFT, AMGN, FB, GOOG, GILD, AAPL, BIDU, CLEG, REGN, YHOO and BIIB.


EPS Positive Reactions
RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions
PAYX, CCL


Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 57, defensive. 

55 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

47 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
AVGO, NXPI

Moving Below 30 DMA = 18
AMAT, BIIB, BMRN, CTXS, ENDP, FOXA, HSIC, JD, KHC, MSFT, NFLX, NTAP, ORLY, PCAR, SBAC, SIRI, SWKS, YHOO

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

OPEC Production Cut Coming in November? Market Acts So...Energy Stocks Lead SPX Rise...

Eight of ten sectors moved higher on WednesdayXLE, XLB and XLI were the strongest sectors while XLV was the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose 2.23 to close at 47.16 as OPEC reaches deal to limit production in November.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led 2,308 to 753 on the NYSE and led 1,652 to 1,156 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led, +8
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +1
Friday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Thursday – weakened slightly, advancers led, +10


SPY up 1.07 at 216.64 on 87.4 million shares, 2% below average volume
VIX down .71 at 12.39
TLT down .30 at 138.40…on 7.9 million shares, 4% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.77%, DIA +0.60%, SPY +0.50%, QQQ +0.17%,


SPY, QQQ and IWM bounced higher as reports of an OPEC production cut deal beginning in November circulated.  IWM gave a bull flag entry signal.  SPY and DIA continued their bounce that began on Tuesday and are rising to short-term horizontal support.

SPX leaders on Wednesday included energy stocks: MUR NOV, CHK, DVN, MRO, HP, DO, COP, APA, HES, NFX, RIG, EOG, CXO, XEC, APC, OKE, OXY, COG, NBL and HAL.

Leading NDX stocks on Tuesday included INCY, VIAB, EXPE, CA, PCAR, LMCA, DSICA, SRCL, AMZN, CTRP, CSX, LBTYA, FAS, SBAC, DIS, ADSK, CHKP and CTXS.

EPS Positive Reactions
RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions
PAYX, CCL


Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: BIDU, TWTR, MA, ATVI, AMAT, NTES, BAC, URBN, DVA, FOSL, GILD, UAL,

Bull Flag Bounces include: IWM, APA, CHK, GT, CAVM, AKS, PCLN, LMCA, CSX, AAPL, SWKS, LVS, ZION, RL, ETFC, SYMC,


Horizontal Breakout Setups include: QQQ, ADSK, BABA, NUE, NUE, STLD, ATI, ISRG, PYPL, MU, QCOM, INTC, FL, JD, FB, NTAP, TXN, ROST, CHTR, REGN, ULTA, BURL, SINA, WRK, SCHW, JPM, WMB, SE, STT, CCL, NCLH, RCL


Horizontal Breakout include: SCHN, X, STLD, CTRP,


New Highs include: AMZN, NVDA, ISRG, STX, LITE, TWLO, CSX, WDC, EA,


______________________

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 64, bullish

55 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

63 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 7
CTXS, FOXA, LRCX, MDLZ, PCAR, SBAC, SIRI,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
ADP, GILD, PAYX,

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Stocks Rise Tuesday...QQQ Bull Flag...SPY Bounce...Cruise Line Sail Higher...

Seven of ten sectors moved higher on TuesdayXLK, XLY and XLF were the strongest sectors while XLU was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell .69 to close at 44.93 as no Saudi Arabia and Iran production deal in sight.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led 1,787 to 1,253 on the NYSE and led 1,859 to 962 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +1
Friday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Thursday – weakened slightly, advancers led, +10
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led, +10

SPY up 1.33 at 215.57 on 78.4 million shares, 11% below average volume
VIX down 1.40 at 13.10
TLT up 1.01 at 138.70…on 9.4 million shares, 24% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
QQQ +0.99%, DIA +0.69%, SPY +0.62%, IWM +0.41%,


SPY, QQQ and IWM bounced higher on Tuesday.  SPY formed a bullish engulfing candle and bounce entry.   QQQ gave a bull flag entry and IWM is still a bull flag pattern.  The intermediate trend is up.

Leading NDX stocks on Tuesday included REGN, TRIP, MU, EXPE, NVDA, STX, WDC, AAL, NFLX, NCLH, YHOO, AVGO and ULTA.

Cruise line stocks RCL +4.76%, CCL +4.05% and NCLH +2.64% reverse Monday’s selloff. 

TWTR +0.35, +1.50% gains for third straight day.

EPS Positive Reactions
RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions
CCL


Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: IWM, CAVM, MA, PCLN, LMCA, ATVI, UAL, CHK, URBN, BAC, CSX, AAPL, GT, AMAT, SWKS, LVS, ZION, RL, ADI, DVA, ETFC, FOSL, SYMC, APA, GILD, UAL, AKS,

Bull Flag Bounces include: QQQ, AMZN, NVDA, MU, ISRG, BIDU, ADSK, INTC, PYPL, BABA, NTES, QCOM,


Horizontal Breakout Setups include: QQQ, ADSK, MU, QCOM, INTC, PYPL, BABA, FL, NTES, BIDU, X, NUE, STLD, ATI, SCHN, EBAY, JD, FB, NTAP, TXN, ROST,  CHTR, REGN, CTRP, ULTA, BURL, FL, SINA, WRK, SCHW, JPM, WMB, SE, STT, CCL, NCLH, RCL


Horizontal Breakout include: AMZN, NVDA, ISRG, EA, ULTA, RCL


New Highs include: AMZN, NVDA, ISRG, STX, LITE, WDC, EA, TWLO, CSX,


______________________


 Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 62, bullish

89 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

59 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 18
ADI, ADP, AMAT, CHKP, CMCSA, CSCO, CTRP, EXPE, HSIC, KHC, LVNTA, MSFT, NFLX, PAYX, QCOM, SWKS, TXN, YHOO

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
AMGN, SIRI,

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

Monday, September 26, 2016

QQQ, IWM Bull Flags...Pullback Day Two 50% Fib Retracement...Oil, Bonds Rise...CCL Lower...

Just one of ten sectors moved higher on MondayXLRE, XLU and XLI were the strongest sectors while XLF was again the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose 1.03 to close at 45.62.

Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,205 to 855 on the NYSE and led 2,155 to 679 on the NASDAQ.

Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +1
Friday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Thursday – weakened slightly, advancers led, +10
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led, +10
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +5

SPY down 1.75 at 214.24 on 89.8 million shares, 1% above average volume
VIX up 2.21 at 14.50
TLT up .87 at 137.69…on 8.6 million shares, 16% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
SPY -0.81%, QQQ -0.84%, DIA -0.92%, IWM -1.27%,


SPY, QQQ and IWM pulled back for the second straight on Monday.  The SPY pullback was a 50% retracement from the low on September 12.  QQQ and IWM are in bull flag patterns.  The intermediate trend is still up.

TWTR +0.75, +3.32% continued higher on Monday.

Leading NDX stocks on Monday included STX, WDC, TSLA, PYPL and TSCO.

CCL -0.79, -1.67% opened higher and reversed lower after reporting earnings before the open Monday.  RCL and NCLH moved lower in reation.


EPS Positive Reactions
RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions
CCL
  

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: QQQ, IWM, AMZN, NVDA, BIDU, MA, ADSK, PCLN, ISRG, LMCA, ATVI, INTC, PYPL, UAL, CHK, URBN, BAC, BABA, NTES, CSX, AAPL, GT, AMAT, SWKS, LVS, ZION, RL, ADI, CAVM, DVA, ETFC, FOSL, SYMC, APA, GILD, QCOM, MU, UAL,

Bull Flag Bounces include:


Horizontal Breakout Setups include: X, NUE, STLD, ATI, SCHN, EBAY, JD, WBA, EA, FB, NTAP, TXN, ROST,  CHTR, REGN, CTRP, ULTA, BURL, FL, SINA, WRK, SCHW, JPM, WMB, SE, STT, RCL,

Horizontal Breakout include: FL, AKS,

New Highs include: STX, CSX, LITE, WDC,


______________________



Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 56, bullish

15 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.

43 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 11
ADI, AMAT, CELG, CMCSA, CSCO, CTRP, HSIC, KHC, QCOM, SWKS, WBA 

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

Friday, September 23, 2016

SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA Close Lower on Friday...Finish Higher for the Week...VIX Sinks for the Week...

Just one of ten sectors moved higher on FridayXLRE, XLU and XLY were the strongest sectors while XLE was again the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell 1.53 to close at 44.59.

For the week ended September 24 all ten sectors moved higher,
XLRE +4.42%, XLU +3.41%, XLI +1.96%, XLY +1.48%, XLV +1.39%,
SPY +1.23%,
Lagging sectors XLB +1.18%, XLF +1.04%, XLP +1.04%, XLK +0.59%, XLE +0.28%,
___________

XLRE Leaders: WY, AIV, VTR, UDR, PLD, DLR, HCP O, AVB, CCI, VNO, IRM.
XLU Leaders:  AES, CNP, AEE
XLI Leaders:  FDX, DAL, PWR, COL
XLY Leaders:  FOSL, RCL, DISCA, KORS, LB 
___________

XLF turned positive YTD this week and XLRE was elevated to sector status making ten of ten sector ETFs positive YTD after two weeks of one negative sector YTD.

YTD 184
Leading Sectors: XLU +17.70%, XLE +12.14%, XLK +10.88%, XLB +8.96%, XLI +8.89%, XLRE +5.98%,
SPY +5.94%,
Lagging Sectors: XLP +5.64%, XLY +1.93%, XLV +1.50%, XLF +0.15%,

Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,055 to 969on the NYSE and led 1,745 to 1,047 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Thursday – weakened slightly, advancers led, +10
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led, +10
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +5
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +5

SPY down 1.19 at 215.99 on 73.6 million shares, 15% below average volume
VIX up .27 at 12.29
TLT down .13 at 136.82…on 5.2 million shares, 19% below average volume


Technical Commentary:
SPY -0.63%, QQQ -0.64%, DIA -0.68%, IWM -0.71%,

The SPX/SPY pulled back on Friday after two strong rally days following the FOMC announcement on WednesdayThe pullback was a 23% retracement from the low on September 12.  Trend is still up.

TWTR +3.99, +21.2% gapped through horizontal resistance as new takeover rumors surfaced once again.

Leading NDX stocks on Friday included ENDP, QVCA, JD, LBTYA, DISCA, EA, EXPE, AAL and TRIP.

CCL reports earnings before the open Monday September 26Watch for potential opportunity in CCL, RCL or NCLH Monday morning.


EPS Positive Reactions

RHT, FDX, ADBE


Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: INTC, PYPL, VLO, UAL, CHK, URBN, BAC, GS, BABA, NTES, CSX, AAPL, GT, AMAT, SWKS,

Bull Flag Bounces include: LVS, ZION, RL,


Horizontal Breakout Setups include: IWM, ETFC, FOSL, SYMC, APA, SWKS, BIDU, EBAY, JD, WBA, ATVI, EA, FB, GILD, NTAP, QCOM, TXN, WDC, NVDA, PCLN, ROST,  CHTR, MU, STX, REGN, CTRP, ULTA, ISRG, YHOO, V, KSS, BURL, FL, MS, SINA, WRK, SCHW, X, NUE, STLD, ATI, SCHN, JPM, WMB, SE, STT, UAL, HRS, MSI,

Horizontal Breakout include:
IWM, RCL, ADI, AMZN, CAVM, FL, DVA, AKS,


New Highs include: CSX, AMZN, NVDA, BABA, QQQ, IWM, LITE, MA, ADSK, CMCSA, LMCA, ATVI, PCLN, ISRG

______________________

Short-term Movers for the week:
SPX gainers:  FOSL, FDX, RCL, WY, AIV, RHT, FCX, NUE, FSLR, VTR, UDR, PLD, JNPR, DLR, AES, HCP, CSRA, KORS, O, OKE, DAL, AVB, CCI, ALB, VNO, PWR, IRM, TMO, COG, CNP, AEE, COL, AMT, LB, FBHS, KIM, OI, FE, XEL, ED, EQT, HCN, PRGO, LNT, SCG, MLM, MAS, PKI, HRL, TSN, NI, A, PNW, KMB, ESS, BA, +4, 61
SPX losers:  CHK, WYNN, CF, KMX, CRM, -4, 5

NDX gainers:  ENDP, ADBE, INCY, QVCA, DISCA, ADSK, LBTYA, CTRP, LMCA, NCLH, +4, 13
NDX losers:  VIAB, NFLX, ALXN -4, 1

YTD: 184
SPX Leaders:  CHD, NEM, OKE, SWN, SE, FCX, URBN, RRC, EW, HPE, (331, +13 > 10p 228, +27)
SPX Losers:  FSLR, CF, PRGO, SIG, RCL, HRB, GCI, DO, FOSL, DAL

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, CHTR, LLTC, NTES, NTAP, ISRG, YHOO, TXN, ULTA, TXN, (57, +5, >10p 40, +4)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, NCLH, SRCL, ALXN, VRTX, TRIP, QVCA, LMCA, REGN, MYL

DJI Leaders:  CAT, UNH, MRK, WMT, MMM, JNJ, CSCO, VZ, IBM, PG, (21, +1, >10p 11, +1)
DJI Losers:  NKE, DIS, BA, GS, AXP, GE, HD, MCD, KO


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 54, bullish

27 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Friday.

54 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
ENDP, TRIP

Moving Below 30 DMA = 11
ADP, ALXN, FISV, LRCX, LVNTA, MSLZ, MSFT, PAYX, TXN, XLNX, YHOO 

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up