Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Stocks Broad Rebound From Brexit Two-day Selloff Led by Energy, Financials and Discretionary...Volatility Sinks...

All nine sectors moved higher on TuesdayXLE, XLF and XLY were the strongest sectors while XLU was the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose 1.46 to close at 48.07.

Breadth strengthened as decliners led 2,608 to 584 on the NYSE and led 2,070 to 551 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Monday – strengthened slightly, decliners led, +1
Friday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +3


SPY up 3.60 at 203.20 on 158.0 million shares, 62% above average volume
VIX down 5.10 at 18.75
TLT up .29 at 139.46…on 13.7 million shares, 85% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
QQQ +2.19%, SPY +1.80%, IWM +1.55%, DIA +1.53%,


Stocks reverse course as futures gain Monday night and continue higher on Tuesday.  SPX and SPY found buyers on Monday near their 200% S&R measuring target from Friday’s break of support and rallied big on Tuesday.

Oil rallied on Tuesday after bouncing from on similar low, from June 16, on Monday gained over 3% today.  Energy rebounded big on Tuesday with eleven stocks among the top 25 SPX gainers:  SWN, MPC, MRO, COG, MUR, DVN, NFX, CHK, XEC, RRC, HES


More to follow…









If Monday’s support lows hold and price bounces, we should look for entries according to our rules.


Earning’s Announcements:
Positive Reactions: IHS
Negative Reactions: NKE


Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include:  NEM, MU, OKE, RIG, ULTA, MNST, SYK, AES, BCR, SYMC


Bull Flag Bounces include:  JNJ, FISV, AVGO, IRM, GPS, UNH, XOM, RRC, CVX, SE, EQT, DLR, NFX, CNP, EQIX, CINF, AMT, SBAC

Divergence Bounce: SWN, TXN, ESRX, EA, INCY, CMCSA, DVN, ATVI, FCX, MLM, MUR, XEC, NRG, AKAM, FB, AMAT, BIDU, BBBY, BMRN, CELG, CERN, CTRP, EXPE FAST, INTU, JD, MNST, MSFT, NFLX, QCOM, TMUS, TRIP

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: SWN, IRM, GPS, DLTR, UNH, ROST, SE, EQT, COG, NFX, NI, CNP, CINF, HCN, UDR, SPG, AMT, TSCO

Horizontal Breakout include: JNJ, COG, DLR, AIV, AVB, EQR, ESS, GGP, KIM, MAC, SPG


New Highs include: JNJ, DLR, AWK, O, EIX, VTR, DG, CMS, WEC, NEE, PNW, FRT, KIM, MAC, CCI

______________________


Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 43, defensive.  Remember MFC is a lagging indicator.


97 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

20 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 10
ADP, CERN, CMCSA, ENDP, KHC, LRCX, NTES, SRCL, TMUS, TSCO,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down
2-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Monday, June 27, 2016

Brexit Selling Day 2...SPX, SPY Finds Buyers Near Friday's Support Break Price Target..Futures Gain After-hours...

Eight of nine sectors moved lower on MondayXLU, XLP and XLV were the strongest sectors while XLB was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell -.96 to close at 46.61.


Breadth strengthened slightly as decliners led 2,495 to 584 on the NYSE and led 2,251 to 379 on the NASDAQ.

Monday – strengthened slightly, decliners led, +1
Friday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Tuesday – weakened, advancers led on the NYSE, +5


SPY down 3.53 at 199.60 on 248.9 million shares, 156% above average volume
VIX down 1.91 at 23.85
TLT up 3.39 at 139.17…on 17.5 million shares, 136% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
DIA -1.47%, SPY -1.74%, QQQ -1.98%, IWM -3.43%,

The winners were bonds TLT +2.50%, utilities XLU +0.83% and gold GLD +0.53%. The losers were stocks and volatility VIX -15.68%.  VIX failed to confirm Monday’s lower move suggesting that the selloff may be near support.

Monday’s SPY dropped 33% from Friday’s level which looked like capitulation selling.  Monday’s volume shows less selling which is a sign that stock is shifting from weak hands to strong hands.

Futures are up in after-hours, another indication that selling may be waning and buyers are returning.


If Monday’s support lows hold and price bounces, we should look for entries according to our rules.

Both SPX and SPY found buyers on Monday near their 200% S&R measuring target from Friday’s break of support.

Bloomberg reports that the world’s wealthiest people lost $196.2 billion over the past two trading following the UK Brexit vote.

Nine NDX stocks including TSLA, WFM, CMCSA, TSCO, MNST, DLTR, ROST, TMUS and ORLY gained on Monday. 


Seventy-eight SPX stocks rose on Monday including KR, DPS, EXR, PSA, NEE, TSN, EIX, ES, AWK, SO, DUK, CPB, O, WEC, VTR, ED, AEP and CLX.  ORLY, ROST and WFM are also in the SPX.


Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.




______________________


Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 50, be defensive.


9 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.

10 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 13
AKAM, AMAT, CERN, ESRX, INTC, ISRG, LRCX, NTAP, NTES, SRCL, STX, WBA, WDC


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

Friday, June 24, 2016

Brexit Reaction Drives SPX from 2,113 Resistance Area to 2,037 Support Area...Equities, Pound and Cameron Brexit Losers...Bonds, Gold and Volatility Brexit Winners...

Eight of nine sectors moved lower on FridayXLU, XLP and XLV were the strongest sectors while XLF was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell -2.56 to close at 47.57.


For the week ended June 24, XLU +0.12%, XLE -0.16%, XLP -0.69%, XLV -1.10%, SPY -1.64%,
Lagging sectors XLK -1.79%, XLY -2.28%, XLF -2.34%, XLI -2.42%, XLB -2.50%,

YTD 121
Leading Sectors: XLU +16.94%, XLE +10.71%, XLB +5.99%, XLP +5.71%, XLI +2.58%,
SPY -0.36%,
Lagging Sectors: XLK -1.28%, XLY -2.57%, XLV -3.80%, XLF -7.34%,Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,579 to 492 on the NYSE and led 2,226 to 418 on the NASDAQ.


Friday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Tuesday – weakened, advancers led on the NYSE, +5
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +8


SPY down 7.68 at 203.13 on 333.1 million shares, 259% above average volume
VIX up 8.51 at 25.76
TLT up 3.55 at 135.78…on 17.1 million shares, 140% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
DIA -3.36%, IWM -3.66%, SPY -3.64%, QQQ -4.12%,

The big losers on Thursday night and Friday were equities with SP futures dropping to a low of 1,199 overnight before closing on Friday at 2,018.25; the British pound which dropped to a 30 year low over Thursday night before closing at 1.3677; and David Cameron, the British prime minister that called for the non-binding referendum to shore up support in his Conservative party, because he thought stay in the EU would win.  A bold political move that totally backfired.

The winners were volatility VIX +49.33%, gold GLD +4.91%, and bonds TLT +2.68%.  Yes, not everything goes down on a big down day. 

Three NDX stocks as three retailers ORLY, ROST and WFM gained on Friday.  Other NDX retailers DLTR, COST, BBBY and ULTA were lower on Friday but much stronger than the NDX -4.07%.

Thirty-nine SPX stocks rose on Friday including NEM, HRL, ED, O, CMS, DTE, ES, XEL, KR, ORLY, VTR, AWK, SCG, MO, AEP, AZO, RAI, HSY, WEC, PCG, PNW, EIX, CME, RTN, AEE, LLY NI, DG, CLX, DUK, WM, CCI, HCP, TSN, D SO and PSA.  ORLY, ROST and WFM are also in the SPX.


Watch if support holds or not next week.  If support holds that tells us that institutions are using lower price level to accumulate stock much like they did in August, October and February.  If support holds and bounces, we should look for entries according to our rules.

If support does not hold, look for price to drop to the next level of support.


Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.                                                                                                                                 


______________________


YTD:
SPX Leaders:  NEM, OKE, SWN, RRC, FCX, EQT, SE, COG, IRM, MLM (299, -8 > 10p 140, -29)
SPX Losers:  MPC, PRGO, SIG, TSO, CF, HRB, LB, ABC, VLO, FSLR

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, ULTA, AMAT, DLTR, CHTR, ISRG, KHC, FISV, CA, TXN, (35, -9, >10p 10, -5)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, LMCA, ALXN, REGN, STX, AAL, JD, VRTX, LBTYA, NCLH

DJI Leaders:  VZ, WMT, UNH, XOM, CVX, JNJ, MMM, CAT, IBM, MRK, (16, -1)

DJI Losers:  GS, NKE, AXP, BA, AAPL, MSFT, JPM, DIS, INTC, HD

Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 61, time to be defensive.


3 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

27 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 49
ADI, ADP, ADSK, AMZN, ATVI, AVGO, BBBY, CA, CHTR, CMCSA, CSCO, CSX, CTSH, CTXS, DISH, EA, EBAY, EXPE, FAST, FISV, FOXA, HSIC, ILMN, INCY, INTU, KHC, LBTYA, LLTC, LVNTA, MAR, MAT, MDLZ, MSFT, MXIM, MYL, NVDA, PCAR, PCLN, QCOM, SBUX, SIRI, SWKS, TMUS, TXN, VIAB, VOD, VRSK, XLNX, YHOO


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

Thursday, June 23, 2016

After the Close...Brexit Vote Sends World Markets Tumbling...Gold, Volatility and Bonds Higher...

After-hours Alert:  What was known about the Brexit vote before it happened was that to stay in the EU was status quo and certainty, to leave the EU was uncertainty and with that uncertainty increased volatility.  Brexit wins 51.89% versus to stay 48.11% and world markets dropped amid the uncertainty of what it really means.

S&P futures dropped more than 100 points, VX volatility futures jumped more than10 points, GC gold futures jumped more than $100 and ZB bonds jumped more than 7 points.

While nothing other than market reactions changes immediately, the UK now moves into the process of negotiating the terms of the exit with the EU which will evolve over the next few months leading to a process that may take up to two years to complete.

Clearly Thursday’s strong positive market action suggests that the net institutional conclusion was the vote would be to stay in the EU.  The conclusion was wrong.  Market action discounts everything and as it became clear that Brexit was winning markets discounted the surprise vote results by sending stock and futures prices lower and volatility, gold and bonds higher.

Markets generally sell off until prices get to a level that investors and traders are attracted to buy by what they consider bargain prices as they did on Monday, August 24, 2015.  Now we will wait to see at what levels buyers take advantage of lower prices.



All nine sectors moved higher on ThursdayXLF, XLE and XLB were the strongest sectors while was the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose 1.13 to close at 50.13.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led 2,502 to 511 on the NYSE and led 2,038 to 576 to on the NASDAQ.

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Tuesday – weakened, advancers led on the NYSE, +5
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +8
Friday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +4


SPY up 2.71 at 210.81 on 102.7 million shares, 21% above average volume
VIX down 3.92 at 17.25
TLT down 1.53 at 132.23…on 9.0 million shares, 33% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
IWM +1.91%, QQQ +1.43%, SPY +1.30%, DIA +1.26%,


Earning’s Announcements:
Positive Reactions: BBBY
Negative Reactions: RHT


Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

                                                                                                                                    
Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 68, bullish.


95 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

76 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 17
ADSK, AMZN, ATVI, BBBY, CHTR, EA, EXPE, FAST, FISV, FOXA, ILMN, INCY, LVNTA, MDLZ, MSFT, PCAR, VOD

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

VIX Spikes on Brexit Eve as SPY, QQQ, IWM Drift Slightly Lower...ADBE Gaps Down After Earnings...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on WednesdayXLV, XLB and XLP were the strongest sectors while XLE was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell 1.20 to close at 49.00.

Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,753 to 1,234 on the NYSE and led 1,507 to 1,022 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Tuesday – weakened, advancers led on the NYSE, +5
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +8
Friday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +4
Thursday – weakened, decliners led, +8


SPY down .34 at 208.10 on 95.5 million shares, 13% above average volume
VIX up 2.69 at 21.17
TLT up .22 at 133.76…on 5.7 million shares, 14% below average volume


Technical Commentary:
SPY -0.16%, QQQ -0.24%, DIA -0.28%, IWM -0.39%,

Oil rose as did SPY, DIA and QQQ.  Volatility VIX jumped as SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM drifted lower.  Bonds TLT were slightly higher.


Britons vote tomorrow Thursday, June 23, whether to stay or leave the 28-nation economic European Union.  Many expect volatility to continue until the results are known.

NDX -8.27 with point gains in GILD, CELG, PCLN, ESRX, REGN, GOOG, COST, AMGN, BIIB and AMAT.

In addition to NDX leaders additional Top 25 SPX leaders included healthcare stocks ABT, DGX, UHS, BMY IPG MRK, ILMN, MCK, LH and STJ.

ADBE -5.71, -5.73% gapped lower on a negative earnings reaction.  Another reminder why technical based trades, especially options, should be exited before earnings.


Earning’s Announcements:
Positive Reactions: 
Negative Reactions: ADBE


Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________


Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include:  JNJ, CSCO, XRX, FISV, AVGO, AMZN, CMCSA, INCY, IRM, X, SCHW, DISH, WYNN, GPS, VIAB, MDLZ, IWM, EA, ADP, DLTR

Bull Flag Bounces include: ESRX, WBA, SPY, UNH, SWN, AMAT

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: PCLN, MU, WDC, INTC, PAYX, OKE, MAT, ROST, HPE, XOM, CSX, RIG, CHK, RRC, CVX, CAT, IBM, DVN, NOV, STX, LB, NVDA, ULTA, CA, MNST, ATVI, TXN

Horizontal Breakout include: LRCX, WRK, SE, EQT

New Highs include: LRCX

______________________

                                                                                                                                    
Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 61, bullish.


43 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and three were unchanged on Wednesday.

59 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
CERN, LBTYA, NTES,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 8
ADBE, ADSK, AMZN, ATVI, EA, FISV, MDLZ, TSLA,


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up