Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Up, Down, Up, Down Volatility...SPY Closes 16 Cents Lower...AKAM Higher After EPS...TSLA, EXPE, CSCO Gain After-hours...

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Two of nine sectors moved higher on WednesdayXLV, XLK and XLU were the strongest sectors while XLB was the weakest sector.  Oil fell $1.02 to close at 27.33.
                         
Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 1.13 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led 1.02 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE
Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led
Monday – mixed, decliners led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday- strengthened, advancers led


SPY down .16 at 185.27 on 148.2 million shares, 10% below average volume
VIX down .25 at 26.29…
TNX down .24 at 17.05…
TLT up 1.16 at 132.79…on 12.7 million shares, 26% above average volume
XLF down .11 at 20.28…on 65.6 million shares, 4% below average volume

AAPL down .72 at 94.27 on 42.3 million shares, 24% below average volume
FB up 1.46 at 101.00 on 45.1 million shares, 6% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
QQQ +0.38%, IWM +0.05%, SPY -0.09%, DIA -0.53%.

Another volatile trading day with futures up overnight and SPY gapping higher on the open and rising to a weekly high up more than two dollars, followed by a pullback to opening levels, another rally to near highs and a final pullback to finish down 16 cents for the day.

Janet Yellen spoke before Congress today and continues her comments on Thursday.

SPY, QQQ and DIA each made a higher high and higher low on Wednesday.   QQQ closed 37 higher while DIA finished down 85 cents from weakness in DIS, IBM and CAT.

The NDX +18.48 on Wednesday was led by point gains in AMZN, MSFT, FB, PCLN, GOOG, MDLZ, AKAM, AMGN, CELG, ATVI, BIDU, ADBE, GILD and HSIC.


Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

Ten Dow stocks NKE, V, UNH, PFE, MSFT, MRK, MCD, HD, CVX and GE rose on Wednesday. 

Positive Earning Reactions included: AKAM, SEE, HSIC, GT, CVS, TSLA, EXPE, CSCO


YTD:
SPX Leaders:  NEM, KORS, SWN, SE, TSN, ED, EQT, EXC, COG, MAT (91)
SPX Losers: CHK, WMB, ESV, MRO, MPC URI, TRIP, VRTX, ADS, LM

NDX Leaders:  MAT, FAST, PCAR, FISV, ROST (5)
NDX Losers: TSLA, TRIP, BMRN, VRTX, NCLH, INCY, WDC, REGN, DISH, MU

DJI Leaders:  VZ, WMT, PG, XOM, MMM
DJI Losers: AXP, BA, GS, INTC, CSCO, JPM, DIS, HD, V, DD


Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPX MFC green line is pointed down at 26. 


67 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

9 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
AKAM, HSIC

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
ROST

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Volatility Rules as SPY Gyrates to Slight Gain Above Support...

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Five of nine sectors moved higher on TuesdayXLB, XLV and XLP were the strongest sectors while XLE was the weakest sector.  Oil fell $1.77 to close at 28.35.
                         
Breadth strengthened as decliners led advancers 2.26 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.87 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led
Monday – mixed, decliners led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday- strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE


SPY up .01 at 185.43 on 184.3 million shares, 16% above average volume
VIX up .54 at 26.54…
TNX down .06 at 17.29…
TLT up .14 at 131.49…on 15.2 million shares, 59% above average volume
XLF down .03 at 20.39…on 137.2 million shares, 105% above average volume

AAPL down .02 at 94.99 on 44.3 million shares, 20% below average volume
FB down .21 at 99.54 on 62.7 million shares, 52% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
SPY +0.01%, DIA -0.07%, QQQ -0.31%, IWM -0.67%.

SPY, DIA and QQQ each formed an inverted hammer-like candle with a higher high and higher low on Tuesday than Monday.  Each held above August support indicating that institutions may be continuing to accumulate stock at this horizontal support level for the fourth time since last August.

The NDX leading stocks on Tuesday:  EA, NFLX, ENDP, ILMN, WBA, VRSK, NCLH, NXPI, GILD, ROST, MAR, MDLZ, INCY, AAL, PCLN   

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

Sixteen Dow stocks PFE, HD, DD, KO, NKE, UNH, MCD, V, MRK, MMM, UTX, AXP, GE, TRV, DIS and PG rose on Tuesday. 

XLB Materials was led by gains in MLM, OI, ECL, SEE, AVY, SHW, IP, VMC, PX, BLL, DD, PPG, CF, WRK and MOS.


Positive Earning Reactions included: OI, MLM and MAS


YTD:
SPX Leaders:  NEM, KORS, SE, SWN, EXC, MAT, ED, TSN, RRC, CMI (98)
SPX Losers: CHK, WMB, ESV, MRO, MPC URI, TRIP, VRTX, ADS, LM

NDX Leaders:  MAT, FAST, PCAR, CMCSA, ROST, FISV, XLNX (7)
NDX Losers: TSLA, BMRN, TRIP, VRTX, INCY, NCLH, WDC, REGN, ADSK, MU

DJI Leaders:  VZ, WMT, PG, XOM, MMM, KO

DJI Losers: AXP, BA, GS, CSCO, INTC, JPM, HD, DIS, V, DD, MSFT

Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPX MFC green line is pointed down at 26.  



42 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

8 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
CA, ROST

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down


Futures Down Overnight Find Support Above Monday's Low...

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Futures fell overnight and found support near Monday's low after this morning's trading session began...the SPX remains volatile with the VIX at 26.75 above Monday's close...however support is holding and in early trading SPX advancers are more than double Monday's level...

Positive earning reactions include: OI, MLM, MAS, GT, WYN

Moving Up:  NFLX +4.18%, EA +4.08%, FB +1.44%, NVDA +2.58%, NXPI +2.44%, NCHLH +2.38%, ROST +1.99%, PCLN +1.92%

Long Tail Hammer on SPX, SPY, DIA, QQQ Near August Support Indicate Possible Bottom...Protect Bearish Profits...

All nine sectors moved lower on MondayXLP, XLU and XLE were the strongest sectors while XLB was the weakest sector.  Oil fell 88 cents to close at 30.12.
                         
Breadth was mixed as decliners led advancers 3.96 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.45 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Monday – mixed, decliners led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday- strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led


SPY down 2.53 at 185.42 on 180.7 million shares, 20% above average volume
VIX up 2.62 at 26.00…
TNX down 1.13 at 17.35…
TLT up 2.77 at 131.49…on 14.4 million shares, 50% above average volume
XLF down .53 at 20.42…on 107.4 million shares, 70% above average volume

AAPL up .99 at 95.01 on 54 million shares, 1% below average volume
FB down 4.32 at 99.75 on 71.2 million shares, 80% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
DIA -0.98%, SPY -1.35%, QQQ -1.53%, IWM -1.64%.

SPX, SPY, DIA and QQQ all formed a hammer candle near August support indicating that institutions may be accumulating stock at support for the fourth time since last August.  SPY broke the 187.06 support on the open putting traders in a defensive posture.

With the formation of a bullish hammer or other bullish candles, stops should be moved above today's bullish candles to protect profits on bearish trades in the event that a follow through bounce occurs on Tuesday.

The NDX -63.80 formed a long tail hammer below last week’s support low, led by point losers FB, AMZN, MSFT, BIIB, CTSH, MDLZ, PCLN, ADBE, TSLA, NXPI, AVGO, AMGN, ATVI, INTC and ISRG. 

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.  

DIA fell to last week’s support low and formed a hammer candle.  Nine Dow stocks CVX, PG, JNJ, XOM, AAPL, MCD, KO, MMM and CSCO rose on Monday. 

XLP Staples was led by gains in TSN, HRL, HSY, MKC, CLX, COST, PG, CPB and MO.

XLI Industrials was led by gains in CHRW, KSU, UPS, UNP and GWW.


YTD:
SPX Leaders:  NEM, SWN, KORS, RRC, SE, COG, MAT, EXC, EQT, ED, ()
SPX Losers: WMB, CHK, MPC, ESV, MRO, URI, VRTX, RCL, TRIP, ADS

NDX Leaders:  MAT, FAST, CMCSA, PCAR, VIAB, XLNX, DISCK, FISV (8)
NDX Losers: TSLA, BMRN, VRTX, NCLH, INCY, TRIP, WDC, ILMN, ADSK, MU

DJI Leaders:  VZ, WMT, XOM, PG, MMM,
DJI Losers: AXP, BA, GS, INTC, CSCO, HD, JPM, DD, V, DIS


Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPX MFC green line is pointed down at 29. 

  
______________________

13 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.

6 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
CA, DISCA, FB, PYPL, VIAB


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

Monday, February 8, 2016

Oil Lower...Futures Lower...SPY, QQQ Lower

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Oil -0.90 at 29.99...news sources reporting that lower oil indicate fresh concerns over slowing global growth and that is driving markets lower this morning...regardless of the reason selling is stronger than buying and the SPY broke its 187.06 support and has fallen to its 184.64 support level...the MFC green line turned down on Friday and traders should be defensive...


All sectors are lower this morning with XLE, XLF and XLY the weakest and XLU, XLP and XLB the strongest...

XLE's weakest include:  CHK, WMB, OKE, KMI, DVN, APC, MRO, MPC, ESV, TSO, RIG, VLO, MUR, CPGX

Friday, February 5, 2016

Stocks Fall After Jobs Report of 151K New Jobs Below Expectations...Be Defensive...

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One of nine sectors moved higher on FridayXLU, XLP and XLI were the strongest sectors while XLY was the weakest sector.  Oil fell 69 cents to close at 31.00.
                         
Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 3.23 to 1 on the NYSE and 4.50 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday- strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led


SPY down 3.65 at 187.95 on 180.7 million shares, 15% above average volume
VIX up 1.54 at 23.38…
TNX down 0.16 at 18.48…
TLT up .15 at 128.72…on 9.2 million shares, 1% below average volume
XLF down .28 at 20.95…on 66.2 million shares, 9% above average volume

AAPL up 1.87 at 96.38 on 45.9 million shares, 14% below average volume
FB down 1.92 at 112.69 on 56.9 million shares, 63% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
DIA -1.34%, SPY -1.91%, IWM -2.74% QQQ -3.47%.

The NDX -143.30 fell below last week’s support low led by AMZN, MSFT, FB, GOOG, INTC, AMGN and ADBE which combined for -53 points on Friday.  AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, INTC and ADBE also closed below last week’s support low.

In 2015 QQQ led SPY and DIA with Friday’s selloff QQQ is down -10.5% year-to-date, significantly underperforming SPY and DIA.  On Friday twenty-seven NDX lost 5% or more including: TRIP, ADBE, TMUS, NFLX, NXPI, TSLA, NCLH, ADSK, WDC, SBUX, EXPE, AMZ, NVDA, SWKS,FB, AVGO, LVNTA, PYPL,VRTX, EA, LBTYA, CERN, ULTA, JD, INTU, ILMN and PCLN. 

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

Nine Dow stocks MRK, VZ, WMT, IBM, PG, XOM, CAT, PGE, and MMM rose on Friday.  This was in contrast to only seven NDX 100 stocks that rose on Friday. 

DIA closed well above last week’s support low while SPY closed at last week’s support low.  Be defensive if SPY breaks support at 187.06Next SPY support levels are 184.64 and 181.02.

Three sectors XLB, XLU and XLI rose for the week. 

XLB Materials was led by weekly gains in DOW, DD, MON, APD, PX, LYB and IP.


XLI Industrials was led by weekly gains in MMM, UNP and UPS.



YTD:
SPX Leaders:  NEM, SWN, KORS, RRC, SE, EXC, MAT, COG, CNX, M, ()
SPX Losers: MPC, ESV, URI, WMB, MRO, ADS, CHK, BWA, TRIP, RCL

NDX Leaders:  MAT, FAST, PCAR, DISCK, CMCSA, VIAB, FISV, XLNX, KHC, FB  ()
NDX Losers: BMRN, INCY, NCLH, TSLA, TRIP, VRTX, ILMN, NFLX, REGN, JD

DJI Leaders:  VZ, WMT, XOM, PG, MMM,
DJI Losers: AXP, CSCO, INTC, BA, GS, JPM, HD, DD, AAPL, DIS


Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPX MFC green line is pointed down at 37. 


______________________

7 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

11 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 14
ADP, AMAT, AVGO, CERN, CHKP, INTU, ISRG, KHC, KLAC, LLTC, MYL, ORLY, ROST, STX


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down