Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Oil, Energy Sector Stocks Jump as OPEC Agrees to Production Cuts...Financial, Steel Stocks Rise as Broad Market Pulls Back...


Sector Trend Strength:
Up Trend: XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE
Sideways: XLK, XLV
Down Trend: XLP, XLU, XLRE

Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,838 to 1,192 on the NYSE and led 1,783 to 984 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +4
Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led, +9
Monday – weakened, decliners led, +4
Friday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Thursday – Thanksgiving Holiday

Oil futures were up 3.75 to close at 48.98.

SPY down .53 at 220.38 on 113.2 million shares, 22% above average volume
VIX up .43 at 13.33
TLT down 1.98 at 120.24…on 21.1 million shares, 112% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
DIA +0.11%, SPY -0.24%, IWM -0.49%, QQQ -1.21%,

DIA finished higher on Tuesday as oil soared on news of an OPEC production agreement.  Energy, material, financial and industrial sectors gained on Wednesday and XLK, XLP, XLU, XLRE, XLV and XLY fell.  

IWM, DIA and SPY continue to remain above their horizontal resistance breakout level
SPX down 5.8 points at 2,198.

Energy stocks were 21 of the top 22 SPX on Wednesday.

SPX Leaders: MRO, RIG, NFX, MUR, APC, DVN, HES, CXO, HP, XEC, HAL, EOG, NBL, PXD, CHK, COP, APA, NOV, LYB, BHI, WMB, OXY

QQQ is in sideways trend and bounced down from intermediate-term resistance today.    

NDX point losers: MSFT, AMZN, FB, AAPL, GOOGL, INTC, CELG, MDLZ, KHC, BIIB, AVGO, AMGN, CMCSA, GILD, CHTR and ATVI


Follow your rules and look for potential re-entry if you were stopped out of any profitable trades.

Continue to move up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.  If you moved stops you may have been stopped out today.



Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


2016 Q3 EPS, > Nov 11
EPS Positive Reactions
THO, CTRP, DE, VEEV, GME, BURL, SINA, DLTR, WB, ADI, CPB, HRL, JEC, SIG, MRVL, ROST, INTU, BBY, NTAP, TGT, AAP, JD, NVDA, KSS, M, JWN, RL, DDS, QVCA, JCI,
EPS Negative Reactions
ADSK, URBN, PDCO, MDT, TSN, GPS, CSCO, LOW, HD, TJX,


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: FCX, MGM, HBAN, BBY, NTAP, DLTR, WFM, RCL, MXIM, DISCA, ADP, JWN, TGT, HAS, NCLH, AXP, TCK, MU, STLD, NUE, AKS,
SCHN, BURL, FISV, SWN, FOSL, RRC, CCL, MCD, TXN, KLAC, TRV, DAL, LUV, AAP, FOXA, UAL, WB, ULTA, SINA,

Bull Flag Bounces include: HAL, MUR, CHK, BHI, HES, APA, LNG, CE, FTI, SQ, PCAR, X, C, BAC,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: LNG, STX, JPM, JD, XLNX, ICE, ADI, AKAM, LMT, AAPL, TSLA, MMM, UTX, ESRX, BBBY, STI, HIG, ATI, CHTR, INCY, CTXS, COST, EXPE, PCLN, NFLX, FB, GOOGL, SQ, PCAR, C,

Horizontal Breakouts include: CHK, BHI, HES, APA, CSX, PWR, SAVE, BAC,

New Highs include: HAL, MUR, CE, ZION, CC, GS, CMA, CFG, MS, ETFC, USB, RF, SCHW, CSX, WDC, UNH, MCHP, FDX, PAYX, MAR, TMUS, CMCSA, SBUX, AAL, ADP, ALK, LRCX, UPS, SKYW, BA,

______________________


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 94, bullish

19 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

54 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
CHKP, QCOM, VIAB

Moving Below 30 DMA = 15
ADSK, ALXN, AVGO, BIBB, BMRN, EA, GILD, INTC, LBTYA, MXIM, REGN, SRCL, VRTX, XRAY, YHOO

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral


Tuesday, November 29, 2016

QQQ at Resistance...Poised to Breakout...Join DIA, IWM and SPY at New Highs...


Sector Trend Strength:
Up Trend: XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE
Sideways: XLK, XLV
Down Trend: XLP, XLU, XLRE

Breadth strengthened as decliners led 1,551 to 1,465 on the NYSE and led 1,405 to 1,341 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led, +9
Monday – weakened, decliners led, +4
Friday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Thursday – Thanksgiving Holiday
Wednesday – weakened, advancers led, +6

Oil futures were were down 1.67 to close at 45.23.

SPY up .43 at 220.91 on 69.8 million shares, 23% below average volume
VIX down .25 at 12.90
TLT up .51 at 122.22…on 8.3 million shares, 12% below average volume

Technical Commentary:
QQQ +0.35%, DIA +0.21%, SPY +0.20%, IWM -0.05%,

QQQ, DIA and SPY started to bounce on Tuesday after a one-day pullback on Monday.

Follow your rules and look for potential re-entry if you were stopped out of any profitable trades.

Continue to move up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.


IWM, DIA and SPY continue to trend above their horizontal resistance breakout level
SPX up 2.9 points at 2,204.

SPX Leaders: ALXN, CNC, UNH, ABBV, CHTR, EA, TIF, PX, AET, CMCSA, HRB, PAYX, ALB, BCR, CCL, SYK, DLR, RHT, A, CSRA, HST, CFG, RCL, HPE, AKAM, PLC, CA, LH, ATIV, HCA, GM, CELG, JNPR, SNI

QQQ in sideways trend is at intermediate-term resistance and is a horizontal resistance breakout setup


NDX point gainers: CMCSA, MSFT, CHTR, ALXN, CELG, GOOGL, FB, JD, KHC, EA and SBUX


Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


2016 Q3 EPS, > Nov 11
EPS Positive Reactions
THO, CTRP, DE, VEEV, GME, BURL, SINA, DLTR, WB, ADI, CPB, HRL, JEC, SIG, MRVL, ROST, INTU, BBY, NTAP, TGT, AAP, JD, NVDA, KSS, M, JWN, RL, DDS, QVCA, JCI,
EPS Negative Reactions
URBN, PDCO, MDT, TSN, GPS, CSCO, LOW, HD, TJX,


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: FCX, MGM, NTAP, DLTR, AMZN, WFM, HAL, MUR, RCL, CE, MXIM, DISCA, ADP, JWN, FTI, ADSK, REGN, VRTX, SQ, TGT, HAS, NCLH, AXP, TCK, MU, PCAR, X, STLD, NUE, AKS, C, BAC, SCHN, BURL, BBY, FISV, HBAN, SWN, CHK, FOSL, RRC, BHI, HES, APA, LNG,

Bull Flag Bounces include: JD, XLNX, ICE, CCL, ADI, NCLH, AKAM,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: STX, LMT, AAPL, CSX, DAL, LUV, TSLA, MMM, JPM, UTX, PWR, ESRX, SAVE, BBBY, STI, HIG, ATI, CHTR,
INCY, CTXS, COST, EXPE, ULTA, PCLN, NFLX, FB, GOOGL, SINA,

Horizontal Breakouts include: UNH, WDC, BA, WB,

New Highs include: UNH, PAYX, MAR, CCL, TMUS, CMCSA,  MCD, SBUX, TXN, KLAC, TRV, LUV, AAL, NVDA,  AAP, FOXA, ADP, ALK, MCHP, LRCX, FDX, UPS, ZION, MS, ETFC, USB, RF, UAL, SKYW, CFG, CC, GS, SCHW, CMA,

Horizontal Break of Support Setups include: CSCO, NEM, NTES, CERN, TRIP

Break of Support: ATVI,

______________________


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 96, bullish

61 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

66 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
ALXN, DISH, EA, GILD

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
CHKP, EXPE, QCOM, TSLA

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

Monday, November 28, 2016

DIA, IWM, SPY Pause After New Highs Last Week...


Sector Trend Strength:
Up Trend: XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE
Sideways: XLK, XLV
Down Trend: XLP, XLU, XLRE

Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,893 to 1,032 on the NYSE and led 1,693 to 1,693 on the NASDAQ.

Monday – weakened, decliners led, +4
Friday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Thursday – Thanksgiving Holiday
Wednesday – weakened, advancers led, +6
Tuesday – steady, advancers led, +8

Oil futures were were up .94 to close at 46.90.

SPY down -1.04 at 220.48 on 76.5 million shares, 15% below average volume
VIX up .81 at 13.15
TLT up .89 at 121.71…on 8.5 million shares, 10% below average volume

Technical Commentary:
QQQ -0.23%, DIA -0.27%, SPY -0.47%, IWM -1.30%,

RUT, DJIA and SPX along with their respective ETFs IWM, DIA and SPY pulled back on Monday.

Follow your rules and continue to move up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.


IWM, DIA and SPY continue to trend above their horizontal resistance breakout level
SPX down 11 points at 2,201.

SPX Leaders: CTSH, NRG, NEM, PEG, ED, AES, WEC, PPL, EXC, PCG, ES, DUK, CMS, AEE, EIX, SCG, LNT, XEL

QQQ in sideways trend is nearing intermediate-term resistance and is a horizontal resistance breakout setup


NDX point gainers: GOOG, CTSH, WBA, BIDU, MSFT and YHOO


Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


2016 Q3 EPS, > Nov 11
EPS Positive Reactions
CTRP, DE, VEEV, GME, BURL, SINA, DLTR, WB, ADI, CPB, HRL, JEC, SIG, MRVL, ROST, INTU, BBY, NTAP, TGT, AAP, JD, NVDA, KSS, M, JWN, RL, DDS, QVCA, JCI,
EPS Negative Reactions
URBN, PDCO, MDT, TSN, GPS, CSCO, LOW, HD, TJX,


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: MGM, JD, NTAP, DLTR, AMZN, WFM, XLNX, HAL, MUR, ICE, RCL, CE, MXIM, DISCA, ADI, JWN, FTI, SLB, ADSK, REGN, VRTX, SQ, TGT, HAS, NCLH,

Bull Flag Bounces include: STX, WDC, LMT,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: AAPL, CSX, DAL, LUV, TSLA, AXP, MMM, BA, JPM, UNH, UTX, PWR, ESRX, SAVE, BBBY, STI, HIG, ATI, FOSL, RRC, CHTR, BHI, HES, APA, INCY, CTXS, COST, EXPE, AKAM, LNG, CHK, ULTA, PCLN, NFLX, CHKP, FB, GOOGL,

Horizontal Breakouts include: WB, SINA,


New Highs include: MCD, TXN, TMUS, KLAC, TRV, SBUX, LUV, TCK, PAYX, MAR, AAL, CCL, NVDA,  MU, AAP, FCX, FOXA, ADP, ALK, MCHP, PCAR, X, STLD, NUE, AKS, LRCX, FDX, UPS, ZION, MS, ETFC, USB, C, BAC, RF, UAL, SKYW, CMCSA, CFG, SCHN, BURL, BBY, FISV, CC, ALK, GS, SCHW, CMA, HBAN, SWN,



______________________


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 97, bullish

33 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Monday.

66 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
JD, YHOO

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
GILD, LVNTA, MDLZ, NXPI, SYMC, VIAB

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

Friday, November 25, 2016

DJIA, RUT and SPX All-time New High Close Again in Record Week...CTRP Gaps Up on EPS Reaction...


Flags Flying This Week:

                      (click image to enlarge)

Flag Setups for Next Week:

                    (click image to enlarge)


Nine of ten sectors moved higher on FridayXLU, XLP and XLI were the strongest sectors while XLE was the weakest sector.  Oil futures were down 1.98 to close at 45.96.

For the week ended November 25, nine of ten sectors moved higher.
XLB +2.57%, XLI +2.30%, XLE +2.24%, XLY +2.19%, XLU +1.88%, XLP +1.43%,
SPY +1.38%,
Lagging sectors XLK +1.35%, XLRE +1.18%, XLF +1.13%, XLV -0.32%,

YTD 228
Leading Sectors: XLE +20.56%, XLI +18.30%, XLF +15.81%, XLB +14.14%, XLK +12.07%, XLU +8.96%,
SPY +8.66%,
Lagging Sectors: XLY +6.17%, XLP +1.45%, XLV -3.54%, XLRE -4.39%


Breadth strengthened as advancers led 1,893 to 1,037 on the NYSE and led 1,693 to 937 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Thursday – Thanksgiving Holiday
Wednesday – weakened, advancers led, +6
Tuesday – steady, advancers led, +8
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +9


SPY up .82 at 221.52 on 37.8 million shares, 59% below average volume
VIX down .09 at 12.34
TLT up .18 at 120.82…on 3.1 million shares, 68% below average volume

Technical Commentary:
DIA +0.37%, SPY +0.37%, IWM +0.33%, QQQ +0.32%,

Friday’s half trading day saw light trading as expected with SPY at 37.8 million, QQQ with 6.8 million, DIA with 1.5 million and IWM with 13.4 million shares, each with less than 50% of their average volume.

RUT, DJIA and SPX along with their respective ETFs IWM, DIA and SPY made new all-time highs on Friday.

Follow your rules and continue to move up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.


IWM, DIA and SPY continue to trend above their horizontal resistance breakout level
SPX up 8 points at 2,213, its third consecutive close above 2,200.
DJIA closes 19,152, its third straight close above 19,000.

SPX Leaders: FSLR, CTSH, AWK, AES, NI, COL, CMS, HPQ, ETR, FE, XEL, FTR

QQQ in sideways trend is nearing intermediate-term resistance and is a horizontal resistance breakout setup

CTRP +4.02, +9.81% gapped up on a positive earnings reaction.

NDX point gainers: AAPL, CSCO, CTRP, MDLZ, INTC, MSFT, CHTR and CTSH

Steel stocks with modest gains on Friday were led by CLF, AKS, MT, NUE and X.

Airline and retail stocks cooled off and were mixed on Friday after a strong week heading into the Thanksgiving Day weekend.   


Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


2016 Q3 EPS, Oct - Nov
EPS Positive Reactions
CTRP, DE, VEEV, GME, BURL, SINA, DLTR, WB, ADI, CPB, HRL, JEC, SIG, MRVL, ROST, INTU, BBY, NTAP, TGT, AAP, JD, NVDA, KSS, M, JWN, RL, DDS, QVCA, JCI, MAR, SYY, FDC, RACE, CTSH, PCLN, MGM, LVS, UBNT, SLCA, SBUX, MCHP, FOSL, MHK, CAR, RIG, DDD, YELP, SHOP, ABC, SQ, HSIC, ZTS, DVN, NBL, ANTM, ADP, EA, VRSK, ADM, HRS, MOS, CHKP, COH, TSO, RCL, HBI, SRCL, HSY, EMN, VRSN, UBS, BIDU, CRUS, EXPE, MO, CVX, FFIV, WDC, COP, DOW, AKAM, JNPR, BA, NCR, OI, FLIR, ROL, TSS, LMT, KEY, FCX, VLO, BHI, SAVE, AKS, TMUS, MCD, PYPL, MSFT, MXIM, AXP, SNA, MAT, BK, STLD, WBA, ALK, URI, HAL, MS, USB, NFLX, HOG, UNH, GS, CE, DPZ, CMA, UAL, HAS, DAL, DRI, CSX, COST, RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions
URBN, PDCO, MDT, TSN, CSCO, LOW, HD, TJX,


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: STX, NTAP, WDC, AMZN, WFM, XLNX, HAL, MUR, ICE, RCL, CE, MXIM, MGM, DISCA, JD, ADI, DLTR, JWN, FTI, SLB, ADSK, REGN, VRTX

Bull Flag Bounces include: AAPL, NCLH, LMT, WFC, MLM,


Horizontal Breakout Setups include: CSX, DAL, LUV, TSLA, AXP, MMM, BA, JPM, UNH, UTX, PWR, ESRX, SAVE, BBBY, STI, HIG, ATI, FOSL, SWN, DVN, RRC, CHTR, BHI, HES, APA, INCY, CTXS, WB, SINA, COST, EXPE, AKAM, LNG, CHK, ULTA, PCLN, NFLX, CHKP, FB, GOOGL,

Horizontal Breakouts include: SQ, TGT, HAS, TRV,


New Highs include: PCAR, X, STLD, NUE, AKS, MAR, AAL, CCL, LRCX, NVDA, MU, MCD, FDX, UPS, TXN, ZION, MS, ETFC, USB, C, BAC, RF, ADP, LUV, UAL, SKYW, TMUS, KLAC, CMCSA, CFG, SCHN, FCX, BURL, BBY, AAP, TCK, FOXA, SBUX, FISV, CC, ALK, GS, SCHW, CMA, PAYX, MCHP, HBAN,

Horizontal Break of Support Setups include: CSCO, NEM, NTES, CERN, TRIP

Break of Support: ATVI,

______________________

Short-term Movers for the week:
SPX gainers:  FCX, DE, MPC, CHK, WYNN, SWN, ADI, FTR, URI, ADS, ANTM, JEC, NUE, FLR, IRM, RRC, OKE, CPB, COTY, COL, KMX, AMG, AZO, SHW, DPS, VZ, AAP VFC, WU, MNK, FSLR, FOSL, CMI, SIG, EQT, VAR, T, HAS, BAC, CTAS, LYB, OMC, MRO, AA, LOW, COG, DG, ETN, IPG, ALK, SCHW RIG, BBY, TDG, +10, 4,  +4, 62
SPX losers:  PDCO, TSN, URBN, LLY, MDT, CRM, HPQ, -4, 8

NDX gainers:  DLTR, ADI, MNST, CTRP, TSLA, MAT, ULTA, AVGO, QVCA, CHTR, MU, SYMC, ORLY, +4, 13
NDX losers:  CTSH, -4, 1,

YTD: 224
SPX Leaders:  FCX, OKE, NEM, SE, MLM, PWR, SWN, CMI, NUE, NAVI, (371, +9, > 10p 257, +27)
SPX Losers:  FSLR, GCI, PRGO, AGN, PBI, HRB, MCK, EQR, UA, LB

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, CHTR, ULTA, MU, TMUS, NTAP, QCOM, TXN, CSX, (64, +0, >10p 43, +4)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, TRIP, ALXN, SRCL, MYL, NCLH, VRTX, ILMN, REGN, GILD

DJI Leaders:  CAT, UNH, CVX, JPM, IBM, MRK, GS, WMT, MMM, UTX, (25, +2, >10p 13, +1)
DJI Losers:  NKE, DIS, KO, PFE, HD


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 97.99, bullish

75 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Friday.

70 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 7
CTRP, CTSH, LVNTA, MDLZ, NXPI, TSLA, VIAB,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up