Monday, November 30, 2009

SPX Bounces off Support Again...

DJIA + 34.92 +0.34% SP500 + 4.14 +0.38% COMPQ + 6.16 +0.29% Russell 2000 + 2.52 +0.44% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,752 1,390 Declining 1,285 1,333 Oil $75.80 -0.25 Gold $1,180.80 +6.60 SOX 310.05 +0.23 VIX 24.74 -0.23 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLF +2.66%...XLU +0.85%...XLB +0.46% Weakest Sectors: XLP -0.93%...XLV -0.36%...XLE -0.35% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Financials, Utilities and Materials were stronger than the SPX +0.38%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,105 - 1,110 = October High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance Once again buyers appeared atthe SPX 1,086 the support level of the three week old horizontal price channel. The Dubai news is factored into the market and in retrospect you can once again see the news that seemed so dire Friday morning and likely to kill an intermediate term trend (at least in everyone’s imagination) has once again evaporated after the typical one impact. Guidance: The SPX and INDU bounced off support on Monday and moved towards the middle of their recent horizontal price channels. The intermediate term is up and the short term trend is still net neutral. Traders that were reluctant to short this market before Thanksgiving were still not motivated to short and so the horizontal price channel begins what could be a fourth week. As we observed last week, buyers are stepping in at 1,086 area support and sellers take over at the 1,110 area resistance in this horizontal channel. Many stocks like AMZN, PCLN, EBAY, AMLN, DE and X started to move higher on Monday. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -0.68 QCOM +0.02 GOOG +3.24 BIDU -5.98 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: EBAY, AMZN, LINTA, WYNN, APOL, SBUX, NVDA, JNPR, STLD, RYAAY, SRCL, EXPE, ILMN, CTSH, BBBY, CELG, CTXS, BRCM, INFY, MCHP, MSFT, VRSN, ALTR, AHNS, GOOG, SIAL and INTC. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, JW.A, AMZN, SLGN, NFLX, MCD, DLB, RCI, ESRX, MHS, WCG, ALGT, BDX, VAR, ACN, CTSH, HLF, AFAM, AMX, GR, SNHY, SYNA, WMT, AAPL, DLTR, GILD, HDB, ORCL, WAB, BIDU, EZPW, PCLN, GXDX, PCP, MON, MOS, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, AMX, PETS, NIHD, VPRT Moving Above 30 DMA = 4 ICE, PSYS, EBAY, URE Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 BLUD, GME, FAZ Staying Below 30 DMA BAP, BKC, BYI, CHL, CPLA, DECK, FLS, GPRO, JOYG, USD, DV, RBN, UYG, SLGN, WAB, ATW, CAM, CLB, SNA, FAS, PWRD, PPD, GES, JEC, JOSB, WRC, GMCR, JCOM, MUR, RIMM, SWN, HANS, STRA, TRLG, AMED, FSLR, APEI, PWR, SPWRA, ESI, FUQI, CBST, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Slightly Lower Opening...

BMO – ES -2.25 and NQ -3.50 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a slightly lower open. The Euro is up 18 pips in overnight trading and oil is quoting up 10 cents in electronic trading. Friday was anything but dull thanks to the news from Dubai. For the first time the volume in the SPY was greater on the Friday after than the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. Friday volume was 125.8 million compared with 109.5 million on Wednesday. Trader reaction to Thanksgiving Day weekend will likely be a key factor today. Keep your eye on key retailing stocks and $RLX and XRT. Buyers stepped in at the 1,082 level on the SPX on Friday. 1,082 to 1,087 is the key short term support level to be watch. Follow your rules in any trading actions today and continue to be logical. SPX Support = 1,087…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,100…1,113 Trading Down: Trading Up: Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – XLE – FAS – AMLN – ILMN – CREE – DE – STLD – FLIR – FCX – PCP – EXPE – X – NIHD – CSX – UNP – WLT – POT – STX – AAPL – AMZN – PCLN – BUCY – JOYG – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – AKAM – V – NKE – CAT – SWK – ACN – PNC – DD – DIS – UTX –

Friday, November 27, 2009

VIX Soars as SPX Slumps...

Please email me at chartsignals@yahoo.com and tell me what you like, find of interest and value on Chart Signals blog. Thank you to those who have already let me know what you like. DJIA - 154.48 -1.48% SP500 - 19.14 -1.72% COMPQ - 37.61 -1.73% Russell 2000 - 14.98 -2.53% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 427 475 Declining 2,533 2,155 Oil $76.05 -1.91 Gold $1,174.20 -12.80 SOX 309.82 -5.27 VIX 24.74 +4.26 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Last Friday the SPX closed at 1,091.38 in the support zone of it horizontal channel of the prior two weeks. On Monday the SPX bounced off of support and closed at 1,106.24. As the holiday shortened week progressed trading moved sideways between 1,097 and 1,110. On Thanksgiving Day news about Dubai asking for 6 months extension on its debt sent Asian and European markets lower. In the process S&P futures dropped 40 points from Wednesday’s close to 3 a.m. Friday morning. From that low to the U.S. open at 9:30 a.m. ET, futures rose 12 points. From the 9:30 a.m. open, the S&P futures rallied another 20 points during the first 90 of trading indicating that U.S. traders saw the Asian and European sell off as a buying opportunity, not a reason to jump on their bandwagon. On the close on Friday the SPX closed at 1,091.49, almost exactly where it closed one week earlier. We had expected a modest week, it just came by bouncing from support to resistance and then back to support to close 0.11 point higher. (click image to enlarge) There is no question that the Dubai news rocked the Asian and European markets and that they sold the ES futures off 40 points before bouncing. However, when a trader comes in Friday and a bounce began about 6 hours before the cash open, the logical action is to see if U.S. traders are going to join in the selling or treat the sell off as a buying opportunity. This is why I wrote in Friday morning’s post; “Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.” If you are uncertain, go back and check the August 12 and September 1 overnight futures action and the subsequent two trading days. Heavy European sell offs to equate to an additional U.S. sell off. Remember U.S. traders are competing with Asian and European traders, they are not one happy club where everyone does the same thing. Also a consideration is that the Dubai debt situation is $60 billion, a huge amount to you and me, but in light of the dollar figures for AIG alone or U.S. banks, an amount that is not unbelievable nor one for which a solution can’t be found. I am not predicting the outcome here just helping to put the situation in perspective. Initial retail sales results on Black Friday are indicating an increase of 0.5% above last year which is positive. Obviously more is always better, but this increase is a step in the direction of recovery. Watch retail stocks next week for traders’ reactions. Also don’t buy into those myopic comments that say something like the S&P Retail Index is up 70% and can’t go higher or it’s gone too high. They cite the March low as if it is the mean of the price action and not the extreme outlier. Did you know that the S&P Retail Index is down 25% from its high in 2007 and retail sales are not down that far in the same time frame? I guess these types of leading myopic statements are what inspired Mark Twain to observe; “There are lies, damn lies and statistics.” Stay focused on the trend and support and resistance levels to know if institutions are continuing to buy or if they become net sellers. AAPL -3.60 QCOM -0.45 GOOG -5.98 BIDU -2.64 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: WCRX, APOL, ATVI, GRMN, ILMN, TEVA, FSLR, BIDU, VRSN, HANS, SHLD, EXPD, ALTR, SPLS, XRAY, MXIM, GENZ, GILD, ISRG, DTV, HSIC, VRTX, QCOM, AMGN, GOOG, CHRW and ADP. NDX 100 stocks weaker than the NDX include: INFY, NWSA, WYNN, FLEX, JOYG, EXPE, FWLT, CTSH, ERTS, RIMM, PCAR, URBN, STLD, LOGI, ORCL, CERN, DISH, STX, ADBE, NIHD and SIAL. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, JW.A, AMZN, SLGN, NFLX, MCD, DLB, RCI, ESRX, MHS, WCG, ALGT, BDX, VAR, ACN, CTSH, HLF, AFAM, AMX, GR, SNHY, SYNA, WMT, AAPL, BLUD, DLTR, GILD, HDB, ORCL, WAB, BIDU, EZPW, PCLN, GXDX, PCP, MON, MOS, TDG, X, BIIB, GME, NTLS, AMX, PETS, NIHD, VPRT Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 FAZ Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 BAP, BKC, BYI, CHL, CPLA, DECK, EBAY, FLS, GPRO, ICE, JOYG, URE, USD Staying Below 30 DMA DV, RBN, UYG, SLGN, WAB, ATW, CAM, CLB, SNA, FAS, PWRD, PPD, GES, JEC, JOSB, WRC, GMCR, JCOM, MUR, RIMM, SWN, HANS, STRA, TRLG, AMED, FSLR, APEI, PWR, SPWRA, ESI, PSYS, FUQI, CBST, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Dubai Debt Catalyst for Dollar Rise and Futures Drop...

Please email me at chartsignals@yahoo.com and tell me what you like and find of interest and value on Chart Signals blog. I'll be back later and give you my insights on the Dubai news and Friday's market action...be sure to check back. 11:30 am ET - A review of the last 10 years indicates that the highest Friday to Wednesday trading percentage over Thanksgiving was 2006 when Wednesday volume was 45.5 million and Friday volume was 30.9 million or 67.9% of Wednesday's volume. Today's percentage is already at 75.5%. SPY has pulled back to 109.80 from a high of 110.32. 11:05 am ET - Last year the SPY traded 370 million shares on Wednesday, November 26 the day before Thanksgiving and 119.9 million shares on Friday, November 28. Friday's volume in 2008 was 32.4% of Wednesday's volume. We expected today to be a relatively light volume day, however, with the Dubai news and the the Asian and European sell off it has apparently motivated traders to buy today near support. SPY volume on Wednesday was 109.5 million shares. Niney five minutes into today's half trading session, SPY volume is 73.4 million shares or 67% of Wednesday's volume. It is possible that today's volume may well be near Wednesday's level. I will have to do some research over past years and see if there is a time during the past 10 years where this has occurred. Today's comparatively high volume for Thanksgiving Friday has been net buying. How can we tell? The SPY opened at 108.40 and is currently 110.23 up $1.83...I hope you did not overreact to the gap down and that you were logical in your trading action.... 9:45 am ET - In the first 15 minutes of trading U.S. traders ahve been net buyers...we'll see if this holds up...SPY opened at 108.40 and is now 109.06 up 66 cents from the open...while decliners 2,608 lead advancers 162, 16 to 1, yes that is 16 to 1, on the NYSE, many individual stocks are up from their opening lows...forming white candles following a gap down... SPX Support = 1,0871,0821,075 Resistance = 1,1001,113 BMO – ES -30 and NQ -45 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. AAPL -5.20, AMZN -3.69, GOOG -11.79 and BIDU -16.11 are lower in pre-market trading. The Euro is down 123 pips in overnight trading and oil is quoting down $3.92 in electronic trading. XLE is down $1.63 in pre-market trading. Dubai is asking creditors for a delay it paying back $60 billion in debt. This surprise shock gave sellers in Asia and Europe a reason to sell during the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Friday which is only a half day of trading promises to be other than the dull quiet day we had expected. It will be interesting to see how U.S. traders will react to the Dubai news and also early reports from the Christmas season shopping which kicks off today in what is referred to by many as Black Friday for retailers. Black Friday refers to the idea that profits move from the red to the black or positive for many retailers at this time of year. A close look at the charts reveals that the Euro, oil, ES and NQ futures while down big are up from overnight lows, so it will be interesting to see what traders do once cash markets open. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge)

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

SPX New High Close...Barely...

Happy Thanksgiving! May each of you and your loved ones have a safe and terrific Thanksgiving Day tomorrow! Good Evening…Thank you for the emails you sent...If you have not yet responded I would love to receive an email from you at chartsignals@yahoo.com on: What features in Chart Signals do you find of greatest interest or value? I am evaluating additional changes and would like to know what you find worthwhile. If you would email me today that would be greatly appreciated. DJIA + 30.69 +0.29% SP500 + 4.98 +0.45% COMPQ + 6.87 +0.32% Russell 2000 - 0.39 -0.07% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,047 1,233 Declining 960 1,456 Oil $77.96 +1.88 Gold $1,187.00 +21.20 SOX 315.09 +2.59 VIX 20.48 +0.01 The VIX moved up and did not confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLB +1.62%...XLU +1.15%...XLY +0.97% Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.20%...XLP -0.18%...XLK +0.18% Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Materials, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy and Healthcare were stronger than the SPX +0.45%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,110 = October High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance Guidance: The SPX and INDU inched their way to new closing highs on Wednesday. The SPX is still in its horizontal price channel. Trading volume was lighter on Wednesday exactly as expected. Friday is a half trading day, so look for very light volume or do something else for fun. The intermediate term is up and the short term trend is still neutral. We expected traders to be reluctant to short this markets and buyers decided to buy the 1,098 area again. As we said buyers are stepping in at support and sellers take over at resistance in this horizontal channel. Don't be surprised if sellers at the 1,110 area again. Many stocks continued to stay in their recent consolidation as fewer traders were around before Thanksgiving Day. When traders return in full force on Monday, be prepared for a move in either direction. Last year a sell off occurred the Monday after Thanksgiving. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -0.25 QCOM -0.12 GOOG +2.65 BIDU +6.64 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include JOYG, WYNN, URBN, ERS, ILMN, STLD, SBUX, GENZ, EXPE, ORCL, SHLD, LINTA, WCRX, NTAP, INFY, CEPH, ORLY, MRVL, BIDU, CTXS, ROST, FSLR, LIFE, ATVI, STX, FLEX, ISRG, CA, XLNX, MICC, SPLS, NVDA, DISH, HOLX, KLAC, BRCM, FAST, LRCX, ISAL, AMZN, VRTX, FISV NWSA, VRSN and CTAS. Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, JW.A, DECK, AMZN, SLGN, NFLX, MCD, ICE, DLB, FAZ, RCI, ESRX, MHS, WCG, ALGT, BDX, VAR, ACN, JOYG, CTSH, HLF, AFAM, AMX, GR, SNHY, SYNA, WMT, AAPL, BLUD, DLTR, GILD, HDB, ORCL, WAB, BIDU, EZPW, PCLN, GXDX, PCP, URE, MON, CPLA, MOS, TDG, X, BAP, CHL, BIIB, GME, NTLS, AMX, GPRO, PETS, NIHD, BKC, DV, USD Moving Above 30 DMA = 6 BAP, BYI, FLS, VPRT, EBAY, JOYG Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 DV, RBN Staying Below 30 DMA UYG, SLGN, WAB, ATW, CAM, CLB, SNA, FAS, PWRD, PPD, GES, JEC, JOSB, WRC, GMCR, JCOM, MUR, RIMM, SWN, FAZ, HANS, STRA, TRLG, AMED, FSLR, APEI, PWR, SPWRA, ESI, PSYS, FUQI, CBST, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to Higher Open...

Good Morning...If you have not yet responded I would love to receive an email from you at chartsignals@yahoo.com on: What features in Chart Signals do you find of greatest interest or value? I am evaluating additional changes and would like to know what you find worthwhile. If you would email me today that would be greatly appreciated. BMO – ES +4.50 and NQ +7.00 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +0.86, AMZN +0.12, GOOG +2.91 and BIDU +1.96 are higher in pre-market trading. The Euro is up 118 pips in overnight trading and oil is quoting up 25 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 14 cents in pre-market trading. The SPX is poised to open above Tuesday’s close and many stocks are up pointing to a stronger open. SPY is up 27 cents at 111.25 pre- market trading. Monday’s high is 111.74. Other sectors are mixed in pre-market trading on little volume. On Tuesday buyers did step in at the 1,098 support and moving the SPX back above 1,100 with a close at 1,105.65. Stay focused on the current support and resistance levels for the next short term trend move. Expect Wednesday to trade light volume especially in the afternoon and perhaps move easily between support and resistance as many traders will leave early today. SPX Support = 1,098…1,087…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,113 …1,025 to1,133 Trading Down: DE Trading Up: SPY, IWM, XLE, AMZN, POT, FCX, X, JOYG, AKAM Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – XLE – FAS – AMLN – ILMN – CREE – DE – STLD – FLIR – FCX – PCP – EXPE – X – NIHD – CSX – UNP – WLT – POT – STX – AAPL – AMZN – PCLN – BUCY – JOYG – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – AKAM – V – NKE – CAT – SWK – ACN – PNC – DD – DIS – UTX –

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

SPX Pauses on Tuesday...

Good Evening...If you have not yet responded I would love to receive an email from you at chartsignals@yahoo.com on: What features in Chart Signals do you find of greatest interest or value? I am evaluating additional changes and would like to know what you find worthwhile. If you would email me today, it would be greatly appreciated. Thank you! DJIA - 17.24 -0.16% SP500 - 0.59 -0.05% COMPQ - 6.83 -0.31% Russell 2000 - 2.23 -0.37% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,633 1,392 Declining 1,606 1,105 Oil $76.02 -1.11 Gold $1,165.80 +1.90 SOX 312.50 +0.98 VIX 20.47 -0.69 The VIX moved down and did not confirm the move down in the SPX on Tuesday. The VIX made a 52-week new close low with its lowest close since August 29, 2008. The SOX moved up and did not confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLV +0.78%...XLE +0.58%...XLP +0.22% Weakest Sectors: XLI -0.82%...XLF -0.74%...XLK -0.18% Four of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Healthcare, Energy, Consumer Staples and Utilities were stronger than the SPX -0.05%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,110 = October High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance Last Friday I suggested that the Thanksgiving Day holiday shortened trading week would likely be a dull week. Well Tuesday got dull. The SPX traded in a 9.93 point trading range closing at 1,105.65 down -0.59 points (YES, that’s less than one point) or -0.05%. In other words dull. AAPL volume dropped -33%, CAT volume fell -29%, GOOG volume was off -36% and PCLN volume tanked -60%. Not every stock had lower volume, but in general trading volume was lower. A few stocks WHR, DISH, AMLN and DIA among others actually saw an increase in volume. Expect even lower volume on Wednesday and of course the lowest trading volume of the year so far on Friday. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) AMLN flag bounce/horizontal breakout on analysts upgrade on above average volume CREE bull flag bounce DE earnings released before market open Wednesday morning ILMN counter trend reversal divergence signal – click here for details on this strategy: http://chartsignals.blogspot.com/2008/10/reversal-trading-strategy-overview.html Guidance: Stocks sloshed around on Tuesday going almost nowhere. Trading volume was lower on many stocks. We expect volume to drop off further on Wednesday especially in the afternoon. Friday is a half trading day, so look for very light volume or do something else for fun. The intermediate term is up and the short term trend is still neutral. We expected traders to be reluctant to short this markets and buyers decided to buy the 1,098 area again. As we said buyers are stepping in at support and sellers take over at resistance in this horizontal channel. Many of the bull flags stalled in their support bounce as traders get ready for Thanksgiving Day. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -1.44 QCOM +0.01 GOOG +0.74 BIDU -3.46 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include ILMN, GOOG, MCHP, BIIB, CEPH, AMGN, DISH, WCRX, LLTC, XRAY, MXIM,LIFE, ROST, DTV, HOLX, VRSN, APOL, ESRX, PPDI, ALTR, XLNX, URBN, EBAY, GENZ, NIHD, KLAC, BRCM, MRVL, CTSH, NTAP, CMCSA, SPLS, STLD and QCOM. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, JW.A, DECK, AMZN, SLGN, NFLX, MCD, ICE, DLB, FAZ, RCI, ESRX, MHS, WCG, ALGT, BDX, VAR, ACN, JOYG, CTSH, HLF, AFAM, AMX, GR, SNHY, SYNA, WMT, AAPL, BLUD, DLTR, DV, GILD, HDB, ORCL, RBN, WAB, BIDU, EZPW, PCLN, GXDX, PCP, URE, MON, CPLA, MOS, TDG, X, BAP, CHL, BIIB, GME, NTLS, AMX, GPRO, PETS, NIHD Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 BKC, DV, USD Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 BYI, UYG Staying Below 30 DMA BAP, JOYG, SLGN, WAB, ATW, CAM, CLB, FLS, SNA, FAS, PWRD, PPD, VPRT, GES, JEC, JOSB, WRC, EBAY, GMCR, JCOM, MUR, RIMM, SWN, FAZ, HANS, STRA, TRLG, AMED, FSLR, APEI, PWR, SPWRA, ESI, PSYS, FUQI, CBST, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futurues Point to a Flat Open...

Good Morning...I would like to receive an email from you at chartsignals@yahoo.com on: What features in Chart Signals do you find of greatest interest or value? I am evaluating additional changes and would like to know what you find worthwhile.
If you would email me today that would be greatly appreciated.
Dave will be in VC Options beginning at 9:30 am ET until 1:00 pm ET. See you at the market open. BMO – ES +1.50 and NQ -1.00 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a slightly higher to flat open. AAPL -0.78, AMZN +0.86, GOOG +0.39 and BIDU -2.75 are mixed in pre-market trading. The Euro is up 13 pips in overnight trading and oil is quoting down 5 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 12 cents in pre-market trading. The SPX is poised to open near Monday’s close and many stocks are up or down slightly pointing to a mixed open. Remember this is a holiday shortened week and look for volume to begin to get lighter and stocks may begin to drift and get a little choppy. SPY is up 23 cents at 111.05 pre- market trading. Monday’s high is 111.74. Other sectors are mixed in pre-market trading on little volume. On Monday sellers did step in at the 1,112 resistance area. Stay focused on the current support and resistance levels for the next short term trend move. SPX Support = 1,105…1,087…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,113 …1,025 to1,133 Trading Down: IWM, CAT, POT, BIDU, AAPL Trading Up: SPY, XLE, AMZN, DE Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – XLE – FAS – STLD – FLIR – FCX – PCP – EXPE – X – DE – NIHD – CSX – UNP – WLT – POT – STX – AAPL – AMZN – PCLN – BUCY – JOYG – CREE – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – AKAM – SYMC – V – NKE – CAT – SWK – ACN – PNC – DD – DIS – UTX –

Monday, November 23, 2009

SPX Rises to Resistance Again...Dow 52-week High...

I would appreciate receiving an email from you at chartsignals@yahoo.com on: What features in Chart Signals do you find of greatest interest or value? I am evaluating additional changes and would like to know what you find worthwhile. If you would email me today that would be greatly appreciated. DJIA + 132.79 +1.29% SP500 + 14.86 +1.36% COMPQ + 29.97 +1.40% Russell 2000 + 10.13 +1.73% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,347 1,934 Declining 666 790 Oil $77.56 +0.98 Gold $1,164.70 +18.00 SOX 311.52 +3.55 VIX 21.16 -1.03 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLI +1.82%...XLK +1.75%...XLF +1.44% Weakest Sectors: XLP +0.76%...XLY +0.87%...XLV +0.92% All nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Industrials, Technology and Financials were stronger than the SPX +1.36%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,110 = October High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance The SPX bounced this morning with futures rising over night and broke through the 1,100 resistance area rising all the way to the horizontal channel resistance reaching 1,112.38 before pulling back and closing 1,106.24. The INDU confirmed Friday’s hammer in its bull flag and closed at a new 52 week high. Many individual stocks continue stronger than the broad indices. Check out these Charts: (click image to enlarge) NIHD C pattern breakout MICC potential horizontal breakout AAPL potential ascending triangle breakout X post C pattern breakout support bounce Guidance: Stocks rallied on Monday in this holiday shortened Thanksgiving Day week. Trading volume was average or better in many stocks. We expect volume to drop off on Wednesday especially in the afternoon. Friday is a half trading day. The intermediate term is up and the short term trend is still net neutral. We expected traders to be reluctant to short this market, but profit takers clearly decided to sell at the 1,112 level. As we said last week buyers are stepping in at 1,088 area and seller take over at the 1,112 area. That certainly was the case again on Monday. The INDU closed at another 52-week high. Many of the bull flags and hammers and other bullish candles from last week confirmed on Monday and did deliver the strong probability of the market bouncing this week as we indicated in Friday’s post. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +5.96 QCOM +0.62 GOOG +12.38 BIDU +11.41 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include NIHD, FLEX, MICC, DELL, JNPR, ESRX, EXPE, CA, AAPL, EBAY, IACI, GRMN, STLD, AKAM, BIDU, AMZN, CERN, ADSK, CTAS, CHKP, GOOG, MRVL, HSIC, LRCX, VRSN, CTSH, VRTX, STX, SPLS, CTXS, PAYX, DISH, CSCO, RYAAY, ADP, FAST and ADBE. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, JW.A, DECK, AMZN, SLGN, NFLX, MCD, ICE, DLB, FAZ, RCI, ESRX, MHS, WCG, ALGT, BDX, BYI, VAR, ACN, JOYG, CTSH, HLF, AFAM, AMX, GR, SNHY, SYNA, WMT, AAPL, BLUD, DLTR, DV, GILD, HDB, ORCL, RBN, WAB, BIDU, EZPW, PCLN, GXDX, PCP, URE, MON, CPLA, MOS, TDG, X, BAP, CHL, BIIB, GME, NTLS Moving Above 30 DMA = 5 AMX, GPRO, PETS, NIHD, UYG Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA BAP, JOYG, SLGN, WAB, ATW, CAM, CLB, FLS, SNA, FAS, USD, PWRD, PPD, VPRT, GES, JEC, JOSB, WRC, EBAY, GMCR, JCOM, MUR, RIMM, SWN, DV, FAZ, BKC, HANS, STRA, TRLG, AMED, FSLR, APEI, PWR, SPWRA, ESI, PSYS, FUQI, CBST, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

Good Morning Bloggers...I would love to receive an email from you at chartsignals@yahoo.com on: What features in Chart Signals do you find of greatest interest or value? I am evaluating additional changes and would like to know what you find worthwhile. If you would email me today that would be greatly appreciated. 1:40 pm ET - after a strong open upward momentum has paused and pulled back less than a 38.2% Fib retracement from Friday's close and is currently at 1,106.24...if the current level holds as the markets move into the last two hours of trading look for a second move towards the hight of this morning...strong stocks include: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, BIDU, NIHD, MICC, CVX, WHR, AKAM, HANS each up more than 2% at this time... 10:15 am ET - in a strong support bounce the SPX has risen to 1,111.46 nearing its recent high of 1,113.69...all those bull flags and hammers we mentioned last week are also bouncing and confirming with strong momentum to the upside...most stocks are higher with advancers 2,549 leading decliners 296 on the NYSE... BMO – ES +13.50 and NQ +20.00 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +2.84, AMZN +1.60, GOOG +6.18 and BIDU+5.20 are higher in pre-market trading. The Euro is up 141 pips in overnight trading and oil is quoting up $1.50 in electronic trading. XLE is up 95 cents in pre-market trading. The SPX is poised to open as many as 13 points or higher. SPY is up 1.40 to 110.82 in pre- market trading. Its previous high is 111.69. Other sectors are lower in pre-market trading on little volume. SPX Support = 1,087…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,1051,113 …1,025 to1,133 Trading Down: Trading Up: SPY, IWM, JOYG, FCX, XLE, CAT, POT, FSLR, CREE, CAT, DE Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – XLE – FAS – STLD – FLIR – FCX – PCP – EXPE – X – DE – NIHD – CSX – UNP – WLT – POT – STX – AAPL – AMZN – PCLN – BUCY – JOYG – CREE – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – AKAM – SYMC – V – NKE – CAT – SWK – ACN – PNC – DD – DIS – UTX –

Friday, November 20, 2009

SPX Closes Near Support...

Good afternoon Bloggers...I would love to receive an email from you at chartsignals@yahoo.com on; What features in Chart Signals do you find of greatest interest or value? I am evaluating additional changes and would like to know what you find worthwhile. If you would email me today or over the weekend that would be greatly appreciated. DJIA - 14.28 -0.14% SP500 - 3.52 -0.32% COMPQ - 10.78 -0.50% Russell 2000 - 1.00 -0.17% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,274 1,245 Declining 1,716 1,449 Oil $76.72 -0.74 Gold $1,146.80 +6.60 SOX 307.97 -2.53 VIX 22.19 -0.44 The VIX moved down and did NOT confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLV +0.70%...XLU +0.45%...XLP +0.15% Weakest Sectors: XLE -0.93%...XLF -0.61%...XLB -0.52% Three of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Staples and Industrials were stronger than the SPX -0.32%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,100 = October High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance The SPX broke through the 1,100 resistance area with a strong trend day on Monday and looked poised to rise to the 1,125 area. Tuesday and Wednesday sellers took over at the 1,110 area while buyers controlled the 1,100 area. Futures fell overnight on Wednesday leading the SPX through its 1,100 support and down to 1,088, the Nov 10 support level of it current horizontal channel. Buyers appeared and the SPX rallied to 1,096 after the first 90 minutes of trading on Thursday. In what looked like an instant replay, the SPX fell to the 1,088 area and buyers again appeared after about two hours of trading and the SPX rallied to 1,093 and closed at 1,091.38. The SPX and COMPQ could not sustain a breakout above their October highs. The RUT actually made a lower high. In contrast the INDU broke through its October highs and has maintained the higher trading level. Even on Friday you can see the stronger chart pattern on the INDU compared with the other three indices. (click image to enlarge) Check out these Dow stocks: (click image to enlarge) DD is forming a bull flag after an ascending triangle breakout. DIS is forming a bull flag after a horizontal breakout. MRK hit a 52-week high after a horizontal breakout. UTX is forming a bull flag in an uptrend series of higher highs and higher lows. With the pull back Thursday and Friday a number of bull flags have begun to appear on individual charts. There were a good number of hammer formations on Thursday many of which did not confirm on Friday. A support bounce in currently forming flags could give an entry signal next week. Check out these bull flags: (click image to enlarge) ESRX formed a piercing line pattern. AMZN formed a piercing line like spinning top. NTAP formed a hammer following an earnings gap. CREE formed two hammers in its bull flag. Guidance: Next week is a holiday shortened Thanksgiving Day week. Trading volume should be typical on Monday and Tuesday, with volume dropping off on Wednesday especially in the afternoon. Friday which is a half trading day will be one of the two lightest trading days of the year. The intermediate term is up and the short term trend has been net neutral over the past two weeks. There is an old trading adage that states don’t short a dull market. Next week will be a dull market and traders may be less likely to want to get short which could wind up giving buyers and easier time of moving the market from Friday’s support back to the recent highs around SPX 1,110. Also keep in mind that the INDU has been stronger and is already above October resistance and is in a bull flag. The fact that there are a lot of stock charts similar to the ones in this post that are in bull flags and have formed hammers or other bullish candles on Thursday and Friday, seems to indicate a strong probability of the market bouncing next week. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -0.59 QCOM +0.01 GOOG -3.03 BIDU -0.42 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include MICC, RIMM, EXPE, ESRX, NIHD, BIIB, RYAAY, HANS, GENZ, CELG, DISH, INFY, AMZN, BBBY, PAYX, SPLS, DTV, SIAL, MRVL, FSLR, ADP, QCOM, CERN, APOL, SRCL, BIDU, CEPH, FLIR, ORLY and CMCSA. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, JW.A, DECK, AMZN, SLGN, NFLX, MCD, ICE, DLB, FAZ, RCI, ESRX, MHS, WCG, ALGT, BDX, BYI, VAR, ACN, JOYG, CTSH, HLF, AFAM, AMX, GR, SNHY, SYNA, WMT, AAPL, BLUD, DLTR, DV, GILD, HDB, ORCL, RBN, WAB, BIDU, EZPW, PCLN, GXDX, PCP, URE, MON, CPLA, MOS, TDG, X, BAP, CHL Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 BIIB, GME, NTLS Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 AMX, BAP, JOYG, SLGN, WAB Staying Below 30 DMA ATW, CAM, CLB, FLS, SNA, FAS, UYG, USD, PWRD, PPD, VPRT, GES, JEC, JOSB, WRC, EBAY, GMCR, JCOM, MUR, RIMM, SWN, DV, FAZ, BKC, HANS, GPRO, STRA, TRLG, AMED, FSLR, APEI, PWR, NIHD, SPWRA, ESI, PETS, PSYS, FUQI, CBST, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

2:45 pm ET - stocks rally from intra-day lows...buyers step in at SPX 1,087 area again on Friday...NKE turns positive...FCX above opening price...support is still holding here on expiration Friday... 11:00 am ET - selling pressure continues to push prices down...SPY, DIA and IWM are currently trading just above Thursday's low...the hammer on Thursday on CAT, AKAM, CREE, NKE and FCX are NOT confirming at this time, indicating a pull back continuation in each of those stocks... BMO – ES -6.25 and NQ -5.75 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. AAPL -1.36, AMZN -1.24, GOOG -2.99 and BIDU -2.26 are lower in pre-market trading. The Euro is down 77 pips in overnight trading and oil is down 77 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 50 cents in pre-market trading. The SPX fell to 1,088 on Thursday before closing at 1,094. The dollar is stronger overnight and ES futures are down. Energy XLE is lower. Other sectors are lower in pre-market trading on little volume. On Thursday buyers did not step in at the 1,100 support area once the cash market opened, so being prepared for a move to the next support level was exactly the correct strategy. On Friday watch the support levels below…if broken look for price to move to the next lower leve. SPX Support = 1,0871,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,100…1,025 to1,133 Trading Down: SPY, IWM, JOYG, FCX, XLE, CAT, POT, FSLR Trading Up: Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – XLE – FAS – STLD – FLIR – FCX – PCP – EXPE – X – DE – LRCX – NIHD – CSX – UNP – WLT – POT – STX – AAPL – AMZN – PCLN – BUCY – JOYG – CREE – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – AKAM – SYMC – V – NKE – CAT – SWK – BDK – ACN – PNC –

Thursday, November 19, 2009

SPX Pulls Back to Horizontal Channel Support and Rallies...

DJIA - 93.87 -0.90% SP500 - 14.90 -1.34% COMPQ - 36.32 -1.66% Russell 2000 - 14.47 -2.41% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 576 565 Declining 2,484 2,142 Oil $77.46 -2.12 Gold $1,141.90 +0.70 SOX 310.50 -11.03 VIX 22.63 +1.00 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Thursday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLP -0.48%...XLV -0.49%...XLY -1.13% Weakest Sectors: XLE -2.24%...XLF -1.94%...XLB -1.51% All nine sectors moved lower on Thursday. Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary and Uilities were stronger than the SPX -1.34%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,100 = October High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,082 = Monday S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance The SPX fell during the first 90 minutes of trading and then slowly higher for the balance of the day. The SPX pulled back to 1,088 and then rose 6 points to close at 1,094.90. The intermediate term trend is still up and buyers stepped in near the Nov 10 support in its horizontal channel. Decliners led advancers 4 to 1 on the NYSE and all nine sectors were lower. While the pull back did not break below the support of the recent horizontal channel, momentum clearly moved down during the first 90 minutes trading. There were many hammers and bull flags formed on Thursday including: GOOG, ISRG, AMZN, ESRX, DOST, URBN, SBUX, STX, CREE. Guidance: The intermediate term is up while the short term trends has turned neutral. Friday is Options Expiration and next week is a holiday shortened week. Expect lighter volume next week. We said last night that trading won’t stay in this range for too long. Today it fell below 1,100 level again before finding support at 1,088. Today is exactly why we stay prepared for a break of support. Look for trading to stay above the 1,082 on Friday as traders unwind positions. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -5.45 QCOM -0.40 GOOG -3.66 BIDU -7.11 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include NTAP, DTV, HANS, PPDI, EBAY, TEVA, AMGN, INTU, DISH, GENZ, ISRG, PDCO, COST, GILD, SMC, CMCSA, ADSK, GOOG, BIIB, BBBY ADP, IACI, CEPH and SBUX. Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, JW.A, DECK, AMZN, SLGN, NFLX, MCD, ICE, DLB, FAZ, RCI, ESRX, MHS, WCG, ALGT, BDX, BYI, VAR, ACN, JOYG, CTSH, HLF, AFAM, AMX, GR, SNHY, SYNA, WMT, AAPL, BLUD, DLTR, DV, GILD, HDB, ORCL, RBN, WAB, BIDU, EZPW, PCLN, GXDX, PCP, URE, MON, CPLA, MOS, TDG, X, BAP, CHL Moving Above 30 DMA = 0 Moving Below 30 DMA = 10 ATW, BIIB, CAM, CLB, FLS, SNA, FAS, UYG, USD, PWRD Staying Below 30 DMA PPD, VPRT, GES, JEC, JOSB, WRC, EBAY, GMCR, JCOM, MUR, RIMM, SWN, DV, FAZ, BKC, HANS, GPRO, STRA, TRLG, AMED, FSLR, APEI, PWR, NIHD, SPWRA, ESI, GME, PETS, PSYS, NTLS, FUQI, CBST, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

BMO – ES -8.25 and NQ -12.25 futures are mixed in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly higher open. AAPL -1.90, AMZN -0.79, GOOG -2.91 and BIDU -4.85 are lower in pre-market trading. The Euro is down 100 pips in overnight trading and oil is quoting down 72 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 14 cents in pre-market trading. Other sectors are mostly lower in pre-market trading on little volume. The SPX rallied from 1,102 on Wednesday to close at 1,109. The dollar is stronger overnight and ES futures are down. The key question for trading on Thursday is will buyers step in at the 1,100 support once the cash market opens? If not, be prepared for a move to the next support level. SPX Support = 1,100…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,025 to1,133 Trading Down: JOYG, FCX, CAT, POT, MOS, FSLR Trading Up: Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – XLE – FAS – STLD – FLIR – FCX – PCP – EXPE – X – DE – LRCX – NIHD – CSX – UNP – WLT – POT – STX – AAPL – AMZN – PCLN – BUCY – JOYG – CREE – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – AKAM – SYMC – V – NKE – CAT – SWK – BDK – ACN – PNC –

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

SPX Near Unchanged as NASDAQ Moves Lower...

DJIA - 11.11 -0.11% SP500 - 0.52 -0.05% COMPQ - 10.64 -0.48% Russell 2000 - 2.19 -0.36% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,409 1,057 Declining 1,621 1,647 Oil $79.58 -0.04 Gold $1,141.20 +1.90 SOX 321.53 -2.77 VIX 21.63 -0.78 The VIX moved down and did not confirm the move down in the SPX on Wednesday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLF +0.81%...XLV +0.56%...XLB +0.00% Weakest Sectors: XLK -0.54%...XLI -0.53%...XLU -0.44% Two of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Financials, Healthcare and Materials were stronger than the SPX -0.05%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +0.81%: SPG, RF, BAC, KEY, STT, WFC, PNC, C and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.54%: SYMC, EMC, DELL, MSFT, T, VZ, ORCL, GOOG, IBM, CSCO, YHOO, ADP, TXN, AMT and AAPL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,100 = October High 1,082 = Monday S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance The SPX paused again on Wednesday while making a slightly higher high and higher low. The SPX pulled back to 1,102.70, one point above Monday’s S1 level before rising 8 points to close at 1,109.80. The intermediate term trend is still up and buyers stepped in near Monday’s S1 again. Bottom line…sellers at 1,110 and buyers at 1,102. The Euro rose over 100 pips but the correlation for an up day in the SPX just did not happen on Wednesday. STLD and X moved higher while FCX and FLIR paused. PCP formed a bearish engulfing pattern. Continue to take advantage of setup opportunities that meet your rules. Check out these intermediate term C Pattern breakouts: (click image to enlarge) X rose…NIHD paused…LRCX pulled back. Guidance: The intermediate term and short term trends are up as the SPX closed down 0.52. It is clear the current battle for control is between 1,101 and 1,111. Trading won’t stay in this range for too long. We continue to view the 1,025 to 1,033 area as the next price target for the SPX, however we will stay prepared for a break of support. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -1.04 QCOM -0.50 GOOG -0.84 BIDU -6.38 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: PDCO, EXPE, HOLX, ATVI, STLD, CHKP, ROST, MICC, CEPH, SYMC, TEVA, SPLS, DELL, FAST, FSLR, GRMN, FLEX, MSFT, DTV, COST, BIIB, WCRX, PCAR, ESRX, CELG, AMZN, INTU and ORCL. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, JW.A, DECK, AMZN, SLGN, NFLX, MCD, ICE, DLB, FAZ, RCI, ESRX, MHS, WCG, ALGT, BDX, BYI, VAR, ACN, JOYG, ATW, CTSH, HLF, SNA, AFAM, AMX, GR, SNHY, SYNA, WMT, AAPL, BLUD, CAM, DLTR, DV, GILD, HDB, ORCL, RBN, WAB, PWRD, BIDU, EZPW, PCLN, FLS, GXDX, PCP, URE, MON, USD, CPLA, CLB, MOS, TDG, UYG, X, BAP Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 BIIB, CHL, FAS Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 PPD, VPRT Staying Below 30 DMA GES, JEC, JOSB, WRC, EBAY, GMCR, JCOM, MUR, RIMM, SWN, DV, FAZ, BKC, HANS, GPRO, STRA, TRLG, AMED, FSLR, APEI, PWR, NIHD, SPWRA, ESI, GME, PETS, PSYS, NTLS, FUQI, CBST, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Dollar Down, Energy Higher, Futures Point to a Flat to Slightly Higher Open...

BMO – ES +2.50 and NQ -0.75 futures are mixed in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly higher open. AAPL +0.25, AMZN -0.15, GOOG +0.56 and BIDU -0.50 are mixed in pre-market trading. The Euro is up 104 pips in overnight trading and oil is quoting up 80 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 38 cents in pre-market trading. Look at the non-correlation between the Euro and the SPX this morning...just an interesting observation...correlations are not 100%. The SPX did pause, pull back, held above Monday’s S1 and rallied to a new high close on Tuesday. The dollar is weak overnight and ES futures are up only slightly. Energy XLE however is higher and looks to lead the market in early trading. Other sectors are mixed in pre-market trading on little volume. We will watch for the trend to move stocks higher today. We continue to see the next resistance level as the likely price target for the SPX. This continues to be a strong intermediate term up trend. Continue to trade with the trend according to your rules. SPX Support = 1,101...1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,025 to 1,133 Trading Down: STX Trading Up: BUCY, JOYG, FCX, XLE, CAT, POT, MOS, FSLR, DE Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge)
Breakouts: CSX, UNP, WLT, POT, BIDU At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – XLE – FAS – STLD – FLIR – FCX – PCP – EXPE – X –
DE -
LRCX – NIHD – CSX – UNP – WLT – POT – STX – AAPL – AMZN – PCLN – BUCY – JOYG – CREE – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – AKAM – SYMC – V – NKE – CAT – SWK – BDK – ACN – PNC –

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

SPX Pulls Back Then Makes New High Close...

DJIA + 30.46 +0.29% SP500 + 1.02 +0.09% COMPQ + 5.93 +0.27% Russell 2000 - 0.53 -0.09% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,351 1,253 Declining 1,656 1,439 Oil $79.14 +0.30 Gold $1,139.40 +0.20 SOX 324.30 +0.47 VIX 22.41 -0.48 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Tuesday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLB +1.16%...XLP +0.48%...XLK +0.45% Weakest Sectors: XLY -0.81%...XLU -0.54%...XLI -0.18% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Materials, Consumer Staples, Technology, Financials and Healthcare were stronger than the SPX +0.09%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +0.27%: RF, STT, KEY, PRU, C, NTRS, CME, USB, MET, ZION, SCHW, WFC, TRV, JPM, PNC and ETF UYG. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.45%: MSFT, AMT, VZ, QCOM, HPQ, CSCO and GLW. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,025 - 1,133 = Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,100 = October High 1,082 = Monday S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance The SPX had a pause day on Tuesday following the strong up trend day on Monday. The SPX pulled back to 1,102, one point above Monday’s S1 level before rising 8 points to close at 1,110.32. Think about itThe intermediate term trend is up. The SPX broke out of horizontal resistance on Monday. Theoretically when price breaks through resistance the most likely place for price to rise to, is the next resistance level. S1, SPX 1,101.71, is a support level. What happened at S1 on Tuesday? Buyers stepped in and drove the SPX to its highest close in 13 months. Five of nine sectors moved higher. Many stocks that closed down for the day rallied from their intra-day lows. Continue to take advantage of setup opportunities that meet your rules. Check out these intermediate term C Pattern breakouts: (click image to enlarge) Also not shown: AA, BA, FAST, CTAS, CTXS Guidance: The intermediate term and short term trends are up as the SPX made a new high close on Tuesday. We continue to view the 1,025 to 1,033 area as the next price target for the SPX. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +0.37 QCOM +0.48 GOOG +1.21 BIDU +3.18 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: STLD, EXPE, WYNN, FLIR, CELG, DTV, DISH, MSFT, GENZ, GRMN, LINTA, MXIM, LRCX, INFY, MRVL, QCOM, STX, CTXS, CSCO, NIHD, EXPD, MCHP, BIDU, IACI, FAST, ALTR, CA, ISRG, BRCM, FSLR, INTC, SIAL, XLNX, CTSH and FISV. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, JW.A, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, SLGN, NFLX, MCD, ICE, DLB, FAZ, RCI, ESRX, MHS, WCG, ALGT, BDX, BYI, VAR, ACN, JOYG, ATW, CTSH, HLF, SNA, AFAM, AMX, GR, SNHY, SYNA, WMT, AAPL, BLUD, CAM, DLTR, DV, GILD, HDB, ORCL, RBN, WAB, PWRD, BIDU, EZPW, PCLN, FLS, GXDX, PCP, URE, MON, USD, CPLA, CLB, MOS, PPD, TDG, UYG, X Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 BAP Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 BIIB, GES, JEC, JOSB, WRC Staying Below 30 DMA EBAY, GMCR, JCOM, MUR, RIMM, FAS, SWN, DV, FAZ, BKC, HANS, GPRO, STRA, TRLG, AMED, FSLR, APEI, PWR, NIHD, SPWRA, ESI, CHL, GME, PETS, PSYS, NTLS, FUQI, CBST, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Slightly Lower Open...

BMO – ES -2.50 and NQ -4.00 futures are slightly lower in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly lower open. AAPL -0.18, AMZN -0.20, GOOG -1.49 and BIDU -1.32 are lower in pre-market trading. The Euro is down 85 pips in overnight trading and oil is quoting down 25 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 13 cents in pre-market trading. The SPX broke through its horizontal channel resistance at 1,105 on Monday and looks to open slightly lower this morning. Consumer Staples XLP and Healthcare XLV are the only sectors quoting higher but on no volume before the open. We will watch for a pause after Monday’s strong trend day to see if trading holds above Monday’s S1 level at 1,101.71. When price breaks resistance it tends to rise to the next resistance level, it certainly can pause and pull back before doing so. Also remember rising to the next level is the most likely scenario, not the only one. This continues to be a strong intermediate term up trend. Stay prepared to protect profits on any long positions that could break support, according to your rules. ADSK reports earnings after the close. SPX Support = 1,101...1,082 Resistance = 1,025 to1,133 Trading Down: BUCY, JOYG, FCX, XLE, CAT, POT Trading Up: ADSK, AKAM, APOL, FSLR Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – XLE – ATW – STX – AAPL – AMZN – PCLN – BUCY – JOYG – SNDK – CREE – ADSK – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – AKAM – ORLY – SYMC – V – NKE – FCX – CAT – POT – SWK – BDK – WLT – ACN – FAS – PNC – CSX – UNP –

Monday, November 16, 2009

Broad Rally in Stocks, Oil and Gold...

DJIA + 136.49 +1.33% SP500 + 15.82 +1.45% COMPQ + 29.97 +1.38% Russell 2000 + 16.59 +2.83% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,489 2,102 Declining 577 657 Oil $79.34 +2.99 Gold $1,139.40 +22.70 SOX 323.83 +6.33 VIX 22.89 -0.47 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLE +2.62%...XLI +2.29%...XLB +2.06% Weakest Sectors: XLP +0.56%...XLV +1.01%...XLF +1.09% All nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Energy, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +1.45%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +1.09%: MS, C, MET, AXP, PNC, PRU, SCHW, AFL, RF, ZION, WFC, SPG, AOC, ALL, CME, ICE and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.10%: DELL, AMAT, ORCL, EMC, INTC, SYMC, TXN, AMT, HPQ and GLW. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,125 - 1,133 = Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,100 = October High 1,082 = Monday S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance Stocks, gold and oil all had a strong trend day on Monday in a broad based rally and horizontal resistance breakout for the SPX and COMPQ. The INDU and NDX had previously closed above resistance. The SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX and DJT all closed at new 52-week highs. The RUT and SOX also had strong moves up bouncing back from a lower price level. The SPX broke through resistance of its four day price channel, breaking the pattern of the last five horizontal channels at resistance since June, by not breaking support and moving lower before going to new highs. This is why I emphasis mental flexibility and trading with the trend of the charts in the Guidance each day. The dollar fell as the Euro rose. BA an intermediate term C pattern entry on Friday and AA a C pattern entry today along with CAT led the INDU higher. Strong stocks ADP, AKAM, CREE, CTSH, DISH, DTV and SBUX moved higher on Monday and did benefit as the SPX broke out of horizontal resistance. ADBE, ACN, CHKP, ESRX, LIFE and NKE also moved higher on Monday. FCX, JOYG, CAT and WLT our morning charts all outperformed the SPX today. (click image to enlarge) Guidance: The intermediate term trend is up and the short term trend turned up on Monday from neutral. The SPX continued the rally that began Friday and broke through its 1,100 to 1,105 resistance area closing at 1,109.30 after reaching 1,113.69. The SPX formed a large white candle and the S1 level is 1,101.71, which is in the zone of old resistance. When price breaks out of resistance it is most likely to rise to the next resistance level which is the 1,025 to 1,033 area. The SPX Yellow Alert for the break of the support of the horizontal channel or last Monday’s S1 did not turn red as the SPX broke out of resistance. Continue to focus on and trade the chart of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +2.18 QCOM -0.26 GOOG +4.23 BIDU +5.82 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: APOL, WCRX, GRMN, STLD, FLSR, JOYG, SHLD, DELL, FWLT, LOGI, JBHT, DISH, BRCM, FLEX, AKAM, PPDI, SPLS, LBYTA,CHRW, KLAC, MRVL, CMCSA, BIDU, SYMC, FLIR, MICC, ALTR, LINTA, MCHP, INTC, RYAAY, AMAT, ISRG, LRCX, EXPD, INFY, ORCL, XLNX, LLTC, NWSA, IACI and CHKP. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, JW.A, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, SLGN, NFLX, MCD, ICE, DLB, FAZ, RCI, ESRX, MHS, WCG, ALGT, BDX, BYI, VAR, ACN, JOYG, ATW, CTSH, HLF, SNA, AFAM, AMX, GR, SNHY, SYNA, WMT, AAPL, BLUD, CAM, DLTR, DV, GILD, HDB, ORCL, RBN, WAB, PWRD, BIDU, EZPW, GES, PCLN, FLS, GXDX, PCP, URE, MON, USD, BIIB, CPLA Moving Above 30 DMA = 9 CLB, JEC, JOSB, MOS, PPD, TDG, WRC, UYG, X Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA EBAY, GMCR, JCOM, MUR, RIMM, FAS, SWN, DV, FAZ, BKC, HANS, GPRO, STRA, TRLG, AMED, FSLR, APEI, PWR, NIHD, SPWRA, ESI, BAP, CHL, GME, PETS, PSYS, NTLS, FUQI, CBST, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up