Higher Open Fills Gap as SPY, DIA, QQQ Close at Resistance BO Area...

© 2019

  

ULTA -99.72, -29.55% collapses after missing EPS by 4 cents ($2.34 million) at $2.76 and missing sales by $10 million at $1.67 billion.  Net result is a not so logical loss of $5.8 billion in market cap on Friday.  With 58.46 million shares, a relatively small outstanding, volume jumped to 16.1 million on Friday, from an average of 791K over the previous 30 days.  This is a classic liquidity squeeze as sellers overwhelmed buyers on volume of more than 20 times average.  At least 9 firms, including WFC, PJC, MS, CS, UBS, cut their price on ULTA.

The DJIA, closed up 41 points at 26,403, led by strength in UNH, MMM, BA and CAT.  Closing below 27,000 for the twentieth-second straight day.

Six of eleven sectors were higher on Friday, led by materials XLB +0.67% and industrial XLI +0.41%.

SPY down .13 at 292.45 on 63 million shares, 23% below average volume.  Down slightly on slightly higher volume.

VIX up 1.10 at 18.98

Oil down .05 at 55.11

TLT up .04 at 147.28 on 13.5 million shares. 

GLD down .37 at 143.75

WBA +1.57%, UNH +1.47%, led the DJIA, 19 advancers, -7

CPB +3.90%, DD +3.28% and LYB +2.72% led the SPX.

WDC +3.98%, DLTR +3.95%, WYNN +3.60% and MNST +1.84% led the NDX.

Long term up trend intact.  3-day short term trend is up.

Up: DIA,

Down: SPY, IWM, QQQ,

Breadth weakened on Friday, as advancers led 1,661 to 1,237 on the NYSE and led 1,578 to 1,478 on the NASDAQ

The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 39 and is short-term bullish. 

Uptrend sectors: XLRE, XLU, XLP, XLY, XLK,

Neutral sectors:  XLC, XLV, XLI, XLF, XLB,

Down trend sectors: XLE,

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is sideways.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

59 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

49 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  SBUX, FISV, AMGN, CELG, KLAC, TTWO, VRSK, VRTX, NTES, SYMC, PEP, EA, SNPS, INTU, ADP, ATVI, BKNG, CHTR, COST, JBHT, MDLZ, CMCSA, CTAS, IDXX, JD, QCOM, AAPL, MYL, ORLY, SIRI, TXN, ASML, EBAY, FAST, GOOGL, LRCX, LULU, MSFT, MU, NVDA, NXPI, ROST, WDC, WLTW, AMAT, CSX, DLTR, ISRG, LBTYA,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 5

AMAT, CSX, DLTR, ISRG, LBTYA,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

AVGO, INCY,

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SPX/SPY Gaps & Runs to Channel Resistance & 30 DMA...

© 2019

The DJIA, closed up 326 points at 26,362, led by strength in HD, GS, AAPL, UNH and CAT.  Closing below 27,000 for the twentieth-first straight day.

All eleven sectors were higher on Thursday, led by technology XLK +1.74% and industrial XLI +1.71%.

TGT, HD, JWN and KEYS continued to trend up on Thursday.

SPY up 3.69 at 292.58 on 57.9 million shares, 29% below average volume.  Up on lower volume.

VIX down 1.47 at 17.88

Oil down 1.45 at 55.16

TLT down .56 at 147.24 on 8.8 million shares. 

GLD down 1.04 at 144.12

CAT +2.53%, HD +2.42%, led the DJIA, 26 advancers, +0

DG +10.68%, PVH +6.25% and NOV +4.85% led the SPX.
MYL +3.92%, AAL +3.91%, NVDA +3.59% and MU +3.52% led the NDX.

Long term up trend intact.  3-day short term trend is up.

Up: IWM, QQQ, DIA, SPY,

Down:

Breadth strengthened slightly on Thursday, as advancers led 2,297 to 662 on the NYSE and led 2,206 to 873 on the NASDAQ

The SPY MFC green line turned up at 31.77 and is short-term bullish. 

Uptrend sectors: XLRE, XLU, XLP, XLY, XLK,

Neutral sectors:  XLC, XLV, XLI, XLF, XLB,

Down trend sectors: XLE,

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up a little.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

76 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

46 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  SBUX, FISV, AMGN, CELG, KLAC, TTWO, VRSK, VRTX, NTES, SYMC, PEP, EA, SNPS, INTU, ADP, ATVI, BKNG, CHTR, COST,  JBHT, MDLZ, CMCSA, CTAS, IDXX, JD, QCOM, AAPL, MYL, ORLY, SIRI, TXN, ASML, AVGO, EBAY, FAST, GOOGL, INCY, LRCX, LULU, MSFT, MU, NVDA, NXPI, ROST, WDC, WLTW,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 15
ASML, AVGO, EBAY, FAST, GOOGL, INCY, LRCX, LULU, MSFT, MU, NVDA, NXPI, ROST, WDC, WLTW,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

DLTR,

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SPX, SPY Close Above Monday's Bullish Harami as Buyers are Back in Town...

© 2019

The DJIA, closed up 258 points at 26,036, led by strength in BA, UNH, HD, GS and UTX.  Closing below 27,000 for the twentieth-first straight day.

Ten of eleven sectors were higher on Wednesday, led by energy XLE +1.43% and discretionary XLY +1.25%.

HSY, TGT, HD, JWN and KEYS continued to trend up on Wednesday.

SPY up 2.02 at 288.89 on 59.8 million shares, 27% below average volume.  Up on lower volume.

VIX down .96 at 19.35

Oil up .21 at 55.90

TLT up .19 at 147.80 on 10.0 million shares. 

GLD down .41 at 145.16

DOW +3.28%, PFE +2.15%, led the DJIA, 26 advancers, +15

XEC +10.55%, COTY +6.02% and FANG +4.61% led the SPX.

AAL +3.60%, JBHT +3.29%, DLTR +2.95% and EBAY +2.79% led the NDX.

Long term up trend intact.  3-day short term trend is sideways.

Up: IWM, DIA, SPY, QQQ,

Down:

Breadth strengthened on Wednesday, as advancers led 2,099 to 842 on the NYSE and led 2,101 to 936 on the NASDAQ

The SPY MFC green line pointed down at 31 and is short-term bearish. 

Uptrend sectors: XLRE, XLU, XLP, XLY, XLK,

Neutral sectors:  XLC, XLV, XLI, XLF, XLB,

Down trend sectors: XLE,

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up a little.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Sideways

76 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

32 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  SBUX, FISV, AMGN, CELG, KLAC, TTWO, VRSK, VRTX, NTES, SYMC, PEP, EA, SNPS, INTU, AAPL, ADP, ATVI, BKNG, CHTR, COST, INCY, JBHT, MDLZ, NVDA, CMCSA, CTAS, IDXX, JD, QCOM, AAPL, DLTR, MYL, ORLY, SIRI, TXN,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 6

AAPL, DLTR, MYL, ORLY, SIRI, TXN,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

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Chop, Chop, Chop, Grind, Grind, Grind, Down, Up, Down and Support is Holding, A Real Trading Channel...

© 2019

The DJIA, closed down 120 points at 25,777, led by weakness in UNH, BA, AAPL, GS and JPM.  Closing below 27,000 for the twentieth straight day.

Three of eleven sectors were higher on Tuesday, led by communication services XLC +0.19% and utilities XLU +0.18%.

ROKU, SHOP and HSY continued their uptrend on Tuesday.

SPY down 1.13 at 286.87 on 68.2 million shares, 10% below average volume.  Down on heavy selling volume.

VIX up .99 at 20.31

Oil up 1.89 at 55.69

TLT up 2.24 at 147.61 on 11.3 million shares. 

GLD up 1.38 at 145.57

JNJ +1.84%, PG +1.03%, led the DJIA, 11 advancers, -19

FOSL +4.44%, NEM +3.30% and FTI +2.96% led the SPX.

COST +5.00%, ATVI +4.93%, NTES +3.06% and IDXX +2.76% led the NDX.

Long term up trend intact.  3-day short term trend is down.

Up:  

Down: QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM,

Breadth weakened on Tuesday, as decliners led 1,950 to 1,013 on the NYSE and led 2,199 to 859 on the NASDAQ

The SPY MFC green line pointed down at 35 and is short-term bearish. 

Uptrend sectors: XLRE, XLU, XLP, XLY, XLK,

Neutral sectors:  XLC, XLV, XLI, XLF, XLB,

Down trend sectors: XLE,

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is down a little.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

40 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

26 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  SBUX, FISV, AMGN, CELG, KLAC, TTWO, VRSK, VRTX, NTES, SYMC, PEP, EA, SNPS, INTU, AAPL, ADP, ATVI, BKNG, CHTR, COST, INCY, JBHT, MDLZ, NVDA, CMCSA, CTAS, IDXX, JD, QCOM,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 5

CMCSA, CTAS, IDXX, JD, QCOM,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 3

AAPL, INCY, NVDA,

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SPX/SPY Bounce at Support Regain 40% of Friday's Selloff, After News of Trade Talks...

© 2019

SPY, DIA, QQQ and IWM regained on Monday approximately 40% of Friday’s selloff after news that trade talks could resume.

After a pullback on Friday, TGT, HD, JWN, KEYS, SNPS, INTU and CRM continued their post EPS rise.  ROKU, SHOP, SHAK and HSY continued their uptrend after a pullback on Friday.

The DJIA, closed up 269 points at 25,898, led by strength in AAPL, GS, BA, DIS and TRV.  Closing below 27,000 for the nineteenth straight day.  

All eleven sectors were higher on Monday, led by communication services XLC +1.50% and technology XLK +1.39%.

SPY up 3.15 at 288.00 on 72.6 million shares, 10% below average volume.  Up on lower volume.

VIX down .55 at 19.32

TLT down .59 at 145.37 on 12.1 million shares. 

Long term up trend intact.  3-day short term trend is down.

Up:  QQQ, SPY, IWM, DIA,

Down:

Breadth gained on Monday, as advancers led 1,973 to 974 on the NYSE and led 2,013 to 1,055 on the NASDAQ

The SPY MFC green line pointed down at 38 and is short-term bearish. 

Uptrend sectors: XLRE, XLU, XLP, XLY, XLK,

Neutral sectors:  XLC, XLV, XLI, XLF, XLB,

Down trend sectors: XLE,

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

91 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.

24 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  SBUX, FISV, AMGN, CELG, KLAC, TTWO, VRSK, VRTX, NTES, SYMC, PEP, EA, SNPS, INTU, AAPL, ADP, ATVI, BKNG, CHTR, COST, INCY, JBHT, MDLZ, NVDA,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 10

AAPL, ADP, ATVI, BKNG, CHTR, COST, INCY, JBHT, MDLZ, NVDA,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

ALXN, QCOM,

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Drama in Threes on Friday as SPX Drops over 2% after China, Fed and POUTUS Speak Out...

© 2019

Too much trade and political drama overwhelmed equities on Friday as market breadth collapsed and the SPX dropped 2.59% to close at 2,847.11.  Friday’s breadth was so weak that even super strong trending stocks HSY, ROKU, SHAK and SHOP fell on Friday.

What worked on Friday was UVXY, VXX, GLD, TLT, INTU, inverse ETFs, gold stocks, gold ETFs and just about any bearish short stock or put trade.

INTU had a positive EPS reaction and at least 10 major analysts including KEY, MS, RBC, Barclays, SF, C, DB, CS, UBS and BAC, raised their price target on Friday.  

CRM gapped up on a positive EPS reaction, but finished unchanged in the wake of negative breadth on Friday.  TGT, HD, JWN, KEYS, SNPS, LOW all pulled back on Friday after strong EPS gains during the week.

Is minus $550 million in seven years a good deal or how low is America’s business IQ?

On Friday, Hu Xijin, the Editor of Global Times, a state controlled newspaper in China, tweeted ”…the US can’t find alternative market with China’s potential.  Without the US, China will meet short-term difficulties; w/o China, the US will lose driving force of long-term growth.”

A “driving force of long-term growth” for the US?  Hmm, maybe that’s the problem?  A misunderstanding of the term “driving force of long-term growth.”

In the seven years from 2012 to 2018 US exports to China have grown $9.8 billion from $110.5 billion to $120.3 billion per year.  In contrast from 2012 to 2018 China imports to the US have grown $113.9 billion from $425.6 billion to $539.5 billion.  Total US growth of $9.8 billion versus China’s growth of $113.9 billion over the past seven years.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI indicates that prices were 9.37% higher in 2018 than 2012.  This means that $110.5 billion in 2012 is equivalent to $120.85 billion in 2018.  In other words, US exports to China shrunk by $550 million when adjusted for inflation.  Some would call this disparity, apparently others describe it as “driving force of long-term growth.”

The seven-year export growth of $113.9 billion for China is 94.6% of the 2018 total US exports to China.  Disparity or real growth for the US?

Any freshman business student should understand why an entity would go to great lengths, even resorting to antithetical statements, to protect a so-called cooperative growth process that allows them to grow their market penetration into their trading partner’s market by $113.9 billion in seven years while only ceding $9.8 billion penetration growth into their own market at the same time.

If US companies can’t find an alternate market that can provide an inflation adjusted minus $550 million potential growth over seven years, the China trade war may not America’s biggest problem, it just may be its own business IQ.

The DJIA, closed down 623 points at 25,628, led by weakness in AAPL, GS, MMM, V and MCD.  Closing below 27,000 for the eighteenth straight day.  

All eleven sectors were lower on Friday.

SPY down 7.51 at 284.85 on 149.3 million shares, 88% above average volume.  Down on heavy selling volume.

VIX up 3.19 at 19.87

TLT up 2.36 at 145.96 on 16.1 million shares. 

GLD up 2.77 at 144.17

Long term up trend intact.  3-day short term trend is down.

Up:  

Down: DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQ,

Breadth collapsed on Friday, as decliners led 2,534 to 425 on the NYSE and led 2,610 to 477 on the NASDAQ

The SPY MFC green line turned down at 42 and is short-term bearish. 

Uptrend sectors: XLRE, XLU, XLP, XLY, XLK,

Neutral sectors:  XLC, XLV, XLI, XLF, XLB,

Down trend sectors: XLE,

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up a little

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

2 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

16 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  SBUX, FISV, AMGN, CELG, KLAC, TTWO, VRSK, VRTX, NTES, SYMC, PEP, EA, QCOM, ALXN, SNPS, INTU,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

INTU,  

Moving Below 30 DMA = 24

AAPL, ADP, ATVI, AVGO, BKNG, CMCSA, COST, CTAS, FAST, GOOGL, IDXX, INCY, JBHT, LRCX, MDLZ, MSFT, MU, MYL, NVDA, NXPI, ROST, SIRI, TXN, WDC,

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