Friday, January 31, 2014

SPX Finishes January Down...CMG, GOOG, FB, NFLX New All-time High Close...

Two of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLU, XLK and XLP were the strongest sectors…while XLY was the weakest sector. 

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 1.68 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.37 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – Strengthened, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, decliners led


SPY down 1.88 at 178.18 volume 194.6 million shares, above average volume
VIX up 1.12 at 18.41…
TNX down .25 at 26.68…
TLT up .72 at 108.28...
XLF down .25 at 21.06 volume 53.6 million shares, above average volume

AAPL up .81 at 500.60 volume 16.6 million shares, above average volume
FB up 1.49 at 62.57…volume 87.8 million shares, above average volume

Technical Commentary: 
QQQ -0.27%, SPY -0.59%, IWM -0.74%, DIA -0.90%.

January Performance
SPX    -3.56%
NDX   -1.95%
RUT   -2.82%

XLU    +2.98%
XLV    +0.94%
XLK    -2.57%
XLF    -3.66%
XLI      -4.27%
XLB    -4.72%
XLP    -5.17%
XLE    -5.80%
XLY    -6.00%

FB         +14.49%
NFLX   +11.18%
GILD       +7.39%
MU          +5.93%
GOOG    +5.38%
PCLN     -1.51%
BIDU    -12.02%
AMZN   -10.06%

The SPX finished lower in January for just the third month in the past year.  The other two lower months were June and August.  The short-term market trend was neutral this week as the SPX held the 1,770 area of support five times this week suggesting that institutions are buyers at this support area, as they were back in November and December at this same horizontal level.  If support holds next week look for a bounce back to the 1,800 resistance area and then the 1,820 – 1,830 resistance area if the buyers can break 1,800 resistance.

Be prepared to trade to the downside if the SPX does break short-term support.

Monday kicks off another week for earnings with GILD, AKAM, GMCR, P, SWI, TWTR, YELP, LNKD and CBOE among other reporting this week.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 181.34, 183.40, 184.69
QQQ = 88.18, 89.00
IWM = 114.48, 116.70

Support Levels
SPY = 179.12, 177.74, 176.36
QQQ = 86.38, 85.67, 84.93
IWM = 112.14, 111.02, 110.71, 109.31


Q4 earnings season continues into the fourth full week…

Monday – AEIS, AGNC
Tuesday – ADM, BWLD, CHRW, CME, GILD, HCA, IP, KORS, KEYW
Wednesday – AKAM, ADP, BIDU, CTSH, FISV, GMCR, HUM, MDC, MRK, NXPI, ORLY, P, SCSS, SWI, TSO, NDAQ, TWX, TWTR, DIS, YELP
Thursday – ATVI, LNKD, SIAL, TPX, VRSN
Friday – CBOE, CI, MCO

Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – NOV, SPG, TSN, ZNGA, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CMG, GOOG, JDSU, MTW, PHM, RYL, VIAB, V, BA, DOW, FB, LVS, QCOM, VLO, AKS, AAL, CHKP, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL


Negative Reactions – CVX, MA, MAT, PCAR, AMZN, MMM, CELG, CL, XOM, ESI, HOG, OSTK, POT, SHW, WHR, BA, CTXS, EMC, TSCO, CRUS, GLW, DD, F, VMW, YHOO, AAPL, STX, ZION, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN

Reversal of Initial Reaction – HON, FAST, FDO, AA


The Market Forecast Green Line is at 20.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: BX, CIEN, CRM, TWTR, CMCSA, ESRX, FFIV, GMCR, TSLA,
Diagonal Breakout: MU, BAC, BBRY, CSIQ, LVS, MFRM, SCTY, SPLK, SPWR, UAL, DAL, ADSK, XLNX,
Bull Flag: JNPR, RCL, UNG, NTAP,
Potential Bullish Divergence: COST,      
Gap Up:  
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: FSLR, GLW, GOGO, NKE, SFUN, SOHU, TSL, X, Z, SNDK, STX, WFM,
At Support: CREE, DRYS, GLD, IBM, IWM, KKD, MCP, MS, RAX, SPY, STI, V, VRSN, WLT, XONE, YNDX, YOKU, ZION, ADBE, BIDU, DTV, EBAY, GRMN, INTC, MNST, PCLN, TXN,
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: FB, ANGI, QIHU, TLT, GOOG, NFLX, WYNN,
Gap Up: TSN, ZNGA       
Gap Down: MAT, MA, CVX, AMZN,
H Breakout: GOOG, MSFT, WYNN,
Diagonal Breakout:
Breakout Test: 
Bounce: LNKD, QCOM,
MACD Divergence Bounce: SSYS, TPX,
Bear Flag: DDD, FAS, GRPN, NTES,  
Support Break: SINA,

______________________


25 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: WYNN, GOOG, MSFT, FB, GMCR, YHOO, BRCM, CTXS, QCOM, NFLX

Lagging NDX stocks included: MAT, AMZN, SYMC, VRTX, BIDU, FFIV, PCAR, CHKP, VIAB, ISRG

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: QIHU

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: JNPR, GOGO, FAS, CREE, BBRY, XONE, ANR, YOKU, SINA, V, RCL, TSL, A, DDD, SCTY, STI, ZION, MCP

Stocks to Watch on Monday

Holding Above 30 DMA= 40
ILMN, ESRX, CMCSA, AVGO, EQIX, AKAM, FFIV, VRTX, XLNX, SBAC, AMGN, ISRG, MU, MYL, BIIB, GILD, MXIM, NXPI, TSLA, NTAP, GOLD, NFLX, CHTR, ALTR, ALXN, CHKP, REGN, CHRW, MSFT, ADSK, BRCM, CERN, FB, GMCR, GOOG, HSIC, SIAL, SRCL, WDC, WYNN

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
QCOM

Moving Below 30 DMA = 7
AMZN, CTRX, DISH, DTV, MNST, ORLY, VRSK

Staying Below 30 DMA
SYMC, SIRI, CSCO, STX, EBAY, PCLN, QCOM, AAPL, ADBE, AMAT, CA, CELG, CTSH, EXPD, FAST, FISV, KLAC, LLTC, NVDA, PCAR, SNDK, TXN, VIP, VOD, ADI, ADP, BIDU, CTXS, GRMN, KRFT, EXPE, INTC, INTU, LBTYA, MDLZ, TRIP, VIAB, YHOO, LINTA, TSCO, ATVI, PAYX, ROST, DLTR, BBBY, FOXA, SPLS, DISCA, MAT, WFM, COST, LMCA,SBUX


Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Stocks Teaching Us Good Yoyo Moves...Futures Look To Open Down...AMZN Down 8.31% After Earnings...GOOG Reports Positive Earnings Up 4.10%

BMO – ES – 16.50…and NQ – 14.50…stock futures point to a lower open

SPY is down 2.49…

XLF is down .35…
Euro is down 40 pips…
TLT is up .68…

Follow your rules for entry and exit…and always remember to adjust stops to protect profits also according to your rules...

Quoting Up: GOOG, GLD, TRIP


Quoting Down: SFUN, FAS, TSL, CSIQ, AMZN, TXN, GMCR, FFIV, PCLN

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Stocks Bounce On US Economy Growth of 3.2% For Last Qtr Of 2013...FB Helps With Gain Of 14.10% After Positive Earnings Report...ALXN Reports Positive Earnings...ALXN Up 21.14%...

All nine sectors moved higher on Thursday…XLV, XLY and XLU were the strongest sectors…while XLP was the weakest sector. 

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 3.27 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.07 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – Strengthened, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, decliners led


SPY up 1.88 at 179.23 volume 116.1 million shares
VIX down .06 at 17.29…
TNX up .18 at 26.93…
TLT down .31 at 107.5...
XLF up .30 at 21.31 volume 45.9 million shares

AAPL down .97 at 499.78 volume 24.2 million shares
FB up 7.55 at 61.08…volume 150.1 million shares, above average volume


Technical Commentary: 
QQQ + 1.85%, IWM + 1.49%, SPY + 1.06%, DIA + 0.68%.

With the news that the US Economy expanded in the last three months of 2013…experiencing a growth of 3.2% and a total of 1.9% for all of 2013…the pump was primed for stocks to jump…and jump they did…with the S&P 500 gaining 19.99…the NASDAQ gaining 71.69…best gain since October 10, 2013…and the DJIA adding 109.82.  Of course, FB added to the pump priming with their ‘better than expected’ earnings report…surprising Wall Street analysts and investors alike.  FB finished the day up 7.55…that’s a gain of 14.10% after earnings.  FB traded 150.3 million shares in today’s session.

ALXN reported their positive earnings and much to the smiles and nods of investors…soared to finished the day up 28.27 or 21.14% on volume of 5.8 million shares.  That’s touching near rocket science guys!

CMG also reported earnings…posting 30% higher profits…in after-hours trading…CMG is up 63.24 or 12.80%.  Serve me up another Pork Burrito folks!

In after-hours trading and after negative earnings report…AMZN is trading down 20.01 or 4.97%. 


Monday kicks off a huge week for earnings AAPL, CAT, RCL, STX, X, and ZION just on Monday.  On Tuesday CMCSA, DD, F, ILMN, VMW and YHOO.  On Wednesday FB, BA and QCOM report and Thursday releases MMM, AMZN, CELG, CMG, GOOG and V.  The week wraps with BIDU, CVX and MA on Friday.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 181.34, 183.40, 184.69
QQQ = 88.18, 89.00
IWM = 114.48, 116.70

Support Levels
SPY = 179.12, 177.74, 176.36
QQQ = 86.38, 85.67
IWM = 113.26, 112.14, 110.71


Q4 earnings season continues into the third full week…

Monday – AAPL, CAT, RMBS, RCL, STX, X, ZION
Tuesday – AKS, AAL, AMGN, CHKP, CRUS, CMCSA, GLW, DD, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, NUE, OI, VMW, YHOO
Wednesday – BIIB, BA, CTXS, DOW, EMC, FB, LRCX, LVS, PSX, QCOM, TSCO, VLO
Thursday – MMM, ALXN, AMZN, BZH, BRCM, CELG, CMG, CL, LLY, XOM, GOOG, HOG, JDSU, MTW, OSTK, BTU, POT, PHM, RVBD, RYL, SHW, BX, TWC, UPS, VIAB, V, WHR, 
Friday – BIDU, CVX, CNX, MA, MAT, NOV, PCAR, SPG, TSN


Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – V, GOOG, CMG, CELG, QCOM, BA, FB, DD, F, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL


Negative Reactions – AMZN, ILMN, VMW, YHOO, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN,  

Reversal of Initial Reaction – FAST, FDO, AA


The Market Forecast Green Line is below 80.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: JNPR, SCTY, ESRX, MSFT,    
Diagonal Breakout: BAC, DDD, FSLR, MCP, SOHU, SPWR, SSYS, SWI, TSL, Z, MU,
Bull Flag: NTAP,   
Potential Bullish Divergence: SCSS,     
Gap Up:  
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:  
At Support:  
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs:  
Gap Up: GRPN, P, TWTR, FB, GOOG, ALXN        
Gap Down:    
H Breakout: QIHU, RCL, TSLA,   
Diagonal Breakout: CIEN,  
Breakout Test: 
Bounce: A, CRM, FAS, GOGO, IBM, IWM, LNKD, LVS, NKE, SPLK, SPY, TPX, VRSN, YNDX, ADSK, AKAM, AMZN, CMCSA, CTSH, DTV, EBAY, GILD, GMCR, GRMN, PCLN, QCOM, TRIP, TXN, WDC, WYNN,
MACD Divergence Bounce:   
Bear Flag: 
Support Break: ESI, CELG,  

______________________


89 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: ALXN, FB, AMZN, TSLA, VRTX, BIIB, FOXA, CERN, REGN, WYNN, ADSK, VIAB

Lagging NDX stocks included: CTXS, SYMC, GOLD, CELG

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: P, QIHU, TWTR, SPLK, GOGO, LVS, CRM, SCTY, YELP

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: ESI, UNG, KKD

Stocks to Watch on Friday

Holding Above 30 DMA= 31
ILMN, ESRX, MNST, CMCSA, AVGO, EQIX, AKAM, FFIV, VRTX, XLNX, CTRX, SBAC, AMGN, ISRG, MU, MYL, BIIB, GILD, MXIM, NXPI, TSLA, NTAP, GOLD, NFLX, CHTR, ALTR, ALXN, CHKP, REGN, CHRW, MSFT

Moving Above 30 DMA = 16
ADSK, AMZN, BRCM, CERN, DISH, DTV, FB, GMCR, GOOG, HSIC, ORLY, SIAL, SRCL, VRSK, WDC, WYNN

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
SYMC

Staying Below 30 DMA
SIRI, CSCO, STX, EBAY, PCLN, QCOM, AAPL, ADBE, AMAT, CA, CELG, CTSH, EXPD, FAST, FISV, KLAC, LLTC, NVDA, PCAR, SNDK, TXN, VIP, VOD, ADI, ADP, BIDU, CTXS, GRMN, KRFT, EXPE, INTC, INTU, LBTYA, MDLZ, TRIP, VIAB, YHOO, LINTA, TSCO, ATVI, PAYX, ROST, DLTR, BBBY, FOXA, SPLS, DISCA, MAT, WFM, COST, LMCA,SBUX


Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral




Economy Data Boosts Stock Futures...US Economy Grows by 3.2% in QTR...1.9% For 2013...FB Sky Rockets After Earnings Up 19.02%...TWTR Up 7.86%...

BMO – ES + 5.25…and NQ + 19.25…stock futures point to a higher open

SPY is up .52…

XLF is up .08…
Euro is down 82 pips…
TLT is down .22…

Follow your rules for entry and exit…and always remember to adjust stops to protect profits also according to your rules...

Quoting Up: FB, ADSK, GOOG, QCOM, TWTR, BX, P, YELP, GRPN, LNKD

Quoting Down: UNG, GLD, LVS, DTV


Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Stocks Slide After Yesterday's Bounce...FB Posts Earnings And Exceeds Analysts Expectations...Soars In After Hours Trading...Up 12%...

Only one of the nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday…XLB, XLU and XLE were the strongest sectors…while XLP was the weakest sector. 

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 3.30 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.29 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – Strengthened, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led


SPY down 1.72 at 177.35 volume 215.4 million shares, about double normal volume
VIX up 1.55 at 17.35…
TNX down .71 at 26.75…
TLT up .88 at 107.87...
XLF down .25 at 21.01 volume 64.4 million shares, above average volume

AAPL down 5.75 at 500.75 volume 17.9 million shares
FB down 1.61 at 53.53…volume 95.8 million shares, above average volume


Technical Commentary: 
IWM – 1.44%, DIA – 1.16%, QQQ – 1.07%, SPY – 0.96%.

Stocks slip after yesterday’s bounce sending the index’s lower in today’s trading session…DJIA closed down 189.77 with the NASDAQ off 46.53 and the S&P 500 shedding 18.30.

FB reported earnings after today’s trading session and exceeded analysts expectations…in after hours trading FB has soared 6.47 up 12.09%.
Total revenues increased by 63% to 2.59 billion.  Over the past 12 months FB stock is up over 74%.

QCOM also reported earnings and has laid to rest any fears investors may have had…QCOM is trading up 2.57% in after-hours trading.

UNG couldn’t be stopped today in spite of stocks retreating.  On volume of 39.3 million shares…UNG gained 2.55 or 10.55% and closed the trading session with a record all- time high.
YHOO gapped down after yesterday’s earning report ending the session down 3.33 or 8.71%.  Volume was high at 67.2 million shares.  Today’s close is at support of October 4th, 2013.

Monday kicks off a huge week for earnings AAPL, CAT, RCL, STX, X, and ZION just on Monday.  On Tuesday CMCSA, DD, F, ILMN, VMW and YHOO.  On Wednesday FB, BA and QCOM report and Thursday releases MMM, AMZN, CELG, CMG, GOOG and V.  The week wraps with BIDU, CVX and MA on Friday.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 181.34, 183.40, 184.69
QQQ = 88.18, 89.00
IWM = 114.48, 116.70

Support Levels
SPY = 179.12, 177.74, 176.36
QQQ = 86.38, 85.67
IWM = 113.26, 112.14, 110.71


Q4 earnings season continues into the third full week…

Monday – AAPL, CAT, RMBS, RCL, STX, X, ZION
Tuesday – AKS, AAL, AMGN, CHKP, CRUS, CMCSA, GLW, DD, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, NUE, OI, VMW, YHOO
Wednesday – BIIB, BA, CTXS, DOW, EMC, FB, LRCX, LVS, PSX, QCOM, TSCO, VLO
Thursday – MMM, ALXN, AMZN, BZH, BRCM, CELG, CMG, CL, LLY, XOM, GOOG, HOG, JDSU, MTW, OSTK, BTU, POT, PHM, RVBD, RYL, SHW, BX, TWC, UPS, VIAB, V, WHR, 
Friday – BIDU, CVX, CNX, MA, MAT, NOV, PCAR, SPG, TSN


Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – QCOM, BA, FB, DD, F, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL


Negative Reactions – ILMN, VMW, YHOO, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN,  

Reversal of Initial Reaction – FAST, FDO, AA


The Market Forecast Green Line is below 80 and is pointed down.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: GLD, QIHU, RCL, TSLA,     
Diagonal Breakout: CIEN, SSYS, TWTR,  
Bull Flag: ESI, STI, V, VRSN, AKAM, CTSH, DTV, EBAY, NTAP, XLNX,  
Potential Bullish Divergence: SCSS,    
Gap Up:  
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: DDD, GRPN, CELG, GOOG,  
At Support: C, SPY, YOKU, COST, GRMN, PCLN, TXN,
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs:  
Gap Up:           
Gap Down: YHOO,    
H Breakout: TLT,   
Diagonal Breakout:  
Breakout Test: 
Bounce: SWKS, UNG, MSFT, WDC,
MACD Divergence Bounce:   
Bear Flag: 
Support Break: GME, SINA, TBT, YNDX, SBUX,

______________________


22 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: STX, GOLD, SYMC, ALTR, ILMN

Lagging NDX stocks included: YHOO, VIP, BIDU, SBUX, ADSK, FB, AMZN, LBTYA, PCLN, TSCO, NTAP

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: UNG, CIEN,

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: SINA, YNDX, ESI, YELP, YOKU, Z, LNKD, RAX, GOGO, MFRM

Stocks to Watch on Thursday

Holding Above 30 DMA= 30
ILMN, ESRX, MNST, CMCSA, AVGO, EQIX, AKAM, FFIV, VRTX, XLNX, CTRX, SBAC,  AMGN, ISRG, MU, MYL, BIIB, GILD, MXIM, TSLA, NXPI, NTAP, GOLD, NFLX, CHTR, ALTR, ALXN, CHKP, SYMC, REGN

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
CHRW, MSFT

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
ADSK, GOOG, ORLY, SIRI, WYNN

Staying Below 30 DMA
CSCO, DTV, STX, WDC, GMCR, EBAY, HSIC, PCLN, QCOM, SRCL, AAPL, ADBE, AMAT, AMZN, CA, CELG, CERN, CTSH, EXPD, FAST, FISV, KLAC, LLTC, NVDA, PCAR, SIAL, SNDK, VOD, TXN, FB, VIP, ADP, BIDU, CTXS, GRMN, ADI, KRFT, DISH, EXPE, INTC, INTU, LBTYA, MDLZ, TRIP, YHOO, VIABM LINTA, TSCO, ATVI, PAYX, ROST, DLTR, BBBY, SPLS, FOXA, MAT, DISCA, WFM, VRSK, COST, SBUX, LMCA


Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down