Wednesday, February 1, 2012

No Balderdash...All Bull Flag Bounce Continuation as SPX Up Trend Continues...

All nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday.  XLF, XLI and XLK were the strongest sectors.

The SPY continued its bull flag support bounce rising to within 26 cents of T1, its Jan 26 high.   Tuesday and Wednesday is a great example of why I teach to enter on the break above the high of the low day and place your stop below the low of the low day.  It works!  The intermediate term trend is still up.

Money Flow
Euro     +78 pips    1.3160
TNX      +0.47           18.46
TLT       -1.67          119.18
XLF      +0.23            14.28
SPX    +11.68       1,324.09
VIX        -0.89            18.55

RUT +2.12%
COMPQ +1.22%
SPX +0.89%
NDX +0.82%
INDU +0.66%

Money Flow was typical as the Euro rose and TNX moved higher and bonds closed lower.   XLF and the SPX moved strongly higher.  The most recent SPX breakout has a chart target of 1,428 within 12 weeks of the breakout.

The VIX moved down and did confirm the higher SPX on Wednesday.

(click image to enlarge)

SPY moved up $1.15 on volume of 165.8 million shares.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 4.80 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.20 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange        NYSE        NASDAQ
Advancers       2,504          1,939
Decliners            521             605

Bull flags with entry signals on Tuesday followed with bounce continuation on Wednesday included SPY, X, A, CF, PCLN, CRM and LVS.

ESI, VMW, INFA, CHKP, LRCX, CTXS, CREE, VECO gave bull flag entry signals on Wednesday.  Those who placed conditional orders last night as suggested had some fun today when the market bounced.

(click image to enlarge)

NFLX, CAT, SOHU and CTRP are in a bull flag today…look for entry on Thursday.   

AMZN -14.98, -7.70% closed higher than Wednesday’s open after reporting lower sales and guidance after the close on Tuesday. 

Wednesday Earnings of Interest
BMC beat
CMG miss EPS, beat revenues
EA beat, lowers guidance
ENTR beat
GMCR beat
JDSU beat
LVS meet, beat revenues
QCOM beat
NDAQ beat

Earnings season continues
Thursday – CME, DOW, MA, MCHP, PCX, RCL


 Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday GES, IL, GRPN, SINA, FAS, WDC, KKD, ZAGG, INFA, CREE, VECO, A, CROX, RCL, RVBD, CF, ENTR, JNPR, LDK, ESI, JDSU, DECK, X, BAC, NTES, HUM, WLT, C, ATI, STI, ARUN, FFIV, TBT, CIEN, LVS, CRM, VMW

Losing stocks < -2.0% included FAZ, MCP, TSL, SWN, UCO

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included STX, BRCM, MYL, NTAP, LRCX, FLEX, NUAN, SIRI, BIIB and AMGN.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include AMZN, CHRW, ATVI, EXPD, BMC, EA, AKAM, ALTR, SHLD and PCAR.

Four NDX stocks ADP, CERN, MYL and YHOO closed above the 30 DMA and three AMZN, ATVI and CHRW closed below the 30 DMA making 91 NDX stocks above their 30 DMA

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 69
WDC, DLR, IL, URE, CMG, DE, DOW, ENTR, FAS, SWK, UNP, F, NKE, CIEN, CRUS, SMH, SWKS, JDSU, NGLS, AKS, BAC, CF, CHL, DHR, STI, X, A, C, CAT, CLF, FCX, MOS, POT, TPX, ESI, KKD, CREE, GS, CROX, HLF, LNKD, LVS, RCL, SLW, SOHU, TSL, CSTR, SINA, VECO, COH, MCP, ARUN, CDE, CRM, FFIV, HAL, SLB, INFA, NTES, NVDA, VMW, WLT, IBM, ZAGG, UAL, TSLA, UCO, LDK, TLT, GES, TIF
Moving Above 30 DMA = 6
ANF, DECK, GRPN, HUM, JNPR, V  
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA
ANR, NDAQ, SWN, TBT, ICE, RVBD, UCO, ATI, SNDK, ZION, GLW, PCX, FAZ

Seventeen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

4 comments:

Scott Avery said...

Great. thanks Dave for posting this early today. It makes it possible for us to do our market prep for the next day and then later on check it with "the master".

Paula said...

Dave,
PDG class today. More BGOs
Thanks

Steven Rotstein said...

Dear Dave,

As I look at the end of day charts for Wednesday's SPX chart and SPY chart, there is a difference in the apprearance of the candles. As you have discussed, the SPX chart fills in gaps from one day's close to the next day's open, SPY does NOT. As a result, Wednesday's SPX shows a bullish engulfing candle while Wednesday's SPY chart (due to the gap) shows a star pattern? or something I'm not familiar with. Question: if I mentally extend the SPY chart open price of Wednesday to meet the close price of Tuesday, will that make the SPX and SPY virtually identical? Question 2: As I recall, you taught us to give ourselves an additional edge by visually filling in a gap. Therefore, even on the SPY chart, filling in Wednesday's gap would effectively result in the same bullish engulfing pattern as seen on SPX? (Of course, this technique would give us that same candle visualization edge on any other chart (unlike SPY which has SPX to do that for us). Please comment.

Scott Avery said...

Steven, I know for myself I look at the 3 daily candles at the close of every day. The SPX, SPY and Futures. Usually they look the same but not always, as you mentioned. If there is much difference in them, I give first priority to the spx candle as to what it looks like, candle pattern etc., but I trade of the spy. If there is a huge candle on the spx I'll translate it to the spy in the case of S1 etc.