Friday, September 4, 2009

Unemployment Hits 9.7%...Futures Near Even...

After the close - with 1 minute to go the SPX made a lunge for the resistance line and hit 1,016.48, but just could not cross 1,017 and closed at 1,016.40...it was a valiant effort but it just wasn't to be today...it creates excitement for next week to see if the buyers can break 1,017 early Tuesday or if it will be a pull back first...I'll be back later on with the complete Friday post... 3:53 pm ET - their stride is starting to falter...do they have it...do they have it...gasp...gasp... 3:51 pm ET - new intra-day high 1,016.34...but gasping for air... 3:39 pm ET - they're beginning to weeze at 1,016.10...gasp...gasp...hold on...hold on... 3:45 pm ET - the runners are rounding the final curve to head into the stretch run...buyers not yet been able to kick it through but they are picking up their pace now at 1,015.61...will they be able to lunge through the resistance line and win...we'll know in 15 minutes.... 3:06 pm ET - the runners have just entered the final lap of the race and buyers have stepped it up as the SPX at 1,015 is rising towards its high of the day...we'll see if the buyers have anything left as they speed towards the resistance line... 2:18 pm ET - Hey my TOS platform just flashed a message that "Today's 3:30pm CDT Weekly Market Wrap features Tom Sosnoff and Dave Johnson. Access details are available on the thinkorswim website." And it was in red just like that...I think I'll show and see what these guys have to say. :) DOW has been in our At the Open list for many days and is finally delivering the Brother of All Support Bounces today... (click image to enlarge) 2:15 pm ET - well if you didn't believe in old support being new resistance and in those S1 levels before today you should now...the SPX moved to 1,016.31 before pausing and pulling back...gee S1 at 1,017...rally reaches 1,106.31 and then pauses...naaahhh gotta be just an accident...nobody really watches these alleged support and resistance areas...gotta be an accident... 1:32 pm ET - I am just sitting around making money today...and I was wondering is there anybody out there that listened to me over the last few weeks on this BDK chart? You are allowed to let me know in the Comments section...That's it? Nobody else heard us mention BDK? (click image to enlarge) 1:26 pm ET - 1,017 the SPX is gunning for you...watch out it just might break you.... 12:20 pm ET - SPX pushes through 1,007 -1,009 resistance moves to 1,013...next level 1,017 August 21 S1 level...hope you're on board the support bounce... 10:45 am ET - this morning is another example among thousands through the years how economic news is not an intermediate term trend changer...it always amazes me how many individual investors overweight a pending news release in their thinking...I may discuss this again more later in the end of day post...after an early push and pull back the SPX is touching its high point of the morning just above 1,008...this is area of Tuesday's R1and the first key area of short term resistance...other sectors have started to gain strength with Consumer Discretionary XLY +0.93%, XLI +0.85% and XLK +0.71% moving ahead of XLK and XLV...so the rally is a little more broad an hour and fifteen minutes into Friday morning...Semiconductors $SOX +1.32% are relatively strong this morning with MRVL +2.13%... 9:42 am ET - FUQI +4.33% is continuing its support bounce this morning... 9:40 am ET - all sectors are higher with Healthcare XLV and Financials XLF taking the early lead...so it appears the cash markets are absorbing the Unemployment report is context of the support bounce that started on Thursday... 9:35 am ET - Financials XLF is the leading sector minutes after the open...BAC +2.08%...C, RF, ZION, KEY, USB and STT showing initial gains...so this is a bank led financial rally we are seeing this morning... BMO – ES +2.25 and NQ +5.25 futures are slightly higher in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly higher open. GOOG -0.58, AAPL +0.85 and BIDU -1.98 are mixed in pre-market trading. The Unemployment Report out this morning was 9.7%, a 26 year high, above expectations of 9.5% while non-farm payrolls fell by 216,000 slightly less that the 233,000 estimated. ES futures had been up about 7 points prior to the report being released, pulled back after the report was released and are now holding near even minutes before the open. We'll watch for the reaction in the cash markets once they are open. Watch the SPX 1,007 to 1,009 area as the first level of short term resistance and 995 as support. Expect volume to taper off during the second half of the trading day before the three day Labor Day weekend. Market will be closed Monday. Trade with the trend of the stocks you are trading. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – WLT – JOYG – AMX - DOW – AGU – X – DE – FWLT – WHR – AXP – PCLN – BDK – BAC – FAS – ZION – AAPL – PCP – FUQI – PWRD – FCX – CAM – MHS – TGT – ARO – ANF – GES –

37 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dave,
your step by step commentary on the indices, sectors, stocks, latest pertinent news -And- the pshchology aspect of trading, is INVALUABLE!!!!

All a b o a r r r r d - - on the night train! (Support bounce)- Yes, we are . .

Thank you.
Laney

I was thinking.... Recently our investment group emailed me a 5 minute interview with Tony Robbins. It was partly about visualation.

Will email you more; would love to know what you think..

Wishing you a most wonderful Labor Day Holiday!

Dave Johnson said...

Laney,

Tony didn't originate nor was he the first to popularize visualization...but I'm sure he has some good comments...

Maxwell Maltz wasn't even the very first but he sure did a lot to get the word out in his Psycho-Cybernetics almost 50 years ago...

I'll watch for it at chartsignals@yahoo.com

Thank you
Dave

John Kevan said...

Aloha Dave
Yes I listened to you on the BDK chart. Been great trade so far although this last pull back was tempting to exit and take profits at but it is a intermediate term trade so I left it alone.

Where I notice it gets a little difficult sometimes is on an intermediate term trade, if you do not enter at the intermediate term support area, let's say you entered on a small bull flag bounce after the price went up from it's intermediate support area, it's tougher to handle the pullbacks since they can easily pull back to the intermediate support area and not just the the low of the bull flag bounce day. I'm finding judging those areas for stops and price fluctuations is more mentally difficult. John

Anonymous said...

Hi Dave,

Not only did I listen to you on BDK but Zion, X, WLT and WHR! There has been a little pull back but I am aslo making money, thanks to you!

Kim

Anonymous said...

Dave,

I didn't do the BDK trade but I've held to my rules and didn't fall to the emotion of a few down days. Trades are recovering nicely. Thanks for the constant reminder to follow my rules.

Scott

Brian McAllister said...

Dave--I have been listening, learning and profiting. I have been with Investools 2+ years, and (shame on me it took so long) really just started to hone in to your message the past 6 months. Started adding positions in to the bounce yesterday and this morning. Great way to end the week. Have a great Labor Day weekend!

Thanks,

Brian

Dave Johnson said...

John, Kim and Scott,

Well I'm glad somebody else did...I hate to think I went to all that effort to find a great trade and no one got to benefit...

John...consider selling calls against your long calls on the pull back and then buying the short calls back in the area of support and it will take some of the disappointment out of the pull backs...who knows maybe entirely eliminate it. :)

Dave

Anonymous said...

Hi Dave,
I did listen regarding the BDK trade and it has been a pleasure to watch it bounce!! This has been a great week for me, thanks to you. I truly enjoyed listening to you Wednesday from market open to after the close. You are instilling many BGO concepts in me that are positively changing the way I view the market, strengthening my discipline to stay focused on what is real and evident in the chart and enhancing my ability to push out the "distractions and noise." Thank you for your ongoing support and encouragement!! I love the updates in your post! Very helpful intraday! Thanks again so much!

Mishel

Dave Johnson said...

Brian,

Way to GO!

Dave

Dave Johnson said...

Mishel,

Wednesday that was fun...Focus...avoid distractions and noise...discipline...YES...YES...YES...you're definitely getting it. :)

Dave

Gary said...

Okay Dave you got me (to comment)! For the past year I've been trying to learn swing trading until I was introduced to you through a follower of yours.Trying to juggle running a business and swing trading I found it difficult if not impossible for me to make money. So, I took a friends advice and listened to a few VC's and was immediately impressed with your coaching techniques and
personality. I've been trading along side you for about 3 weeks and I must admit I'm liking this trend trading thing. Funny how the basic elements of support,resistance, trend were the first thing I learned in trading and you utilize them in simple way to make trading easier. I was on VC and sweating it out with the rest of the group for a 22pt drop in the S/P as you
calmly explained the "pull back". With your experience as a professional money manager, you seem to "know" what the big money is thinking and that in itself is reassuring to me (us).

I was (hard)stopped out of our WYNN the other day (wrong stop?)and rolled some X 47 calls out to Oct. but your other trades PCLN, FWLT, GRMN, FCX, FLS, WHR and UAUA I'm very comfortable with. I hope to make it to one of your live classes Dave shake your hand and thank you for helping me come so far so fast. I'm sure you students new and old alike feel the same. I look forward to learning all I can from you and trading with you as much as I can.

Thnaks for all your help!

Gary
AKA K.S.

Anonymous said...

Dave,

I watch your classes everyday Mon-Thurs. and just wish you had one on Friday too! You have been so helpful to all of us and we really can't get enough of you! Thank you for all you do and helping me become a better trader! BDK has been a great trade for me but you have also had some other great ones lately!

Katy said...

Dave-thanks for all the BGO's you've given us. I did stick with the BDK trade-when a few months ago I would have bailed. It is really awesome to sit back, relax while the market is bouncing off of support and finally understanding this process. Thanks for your dedication to your students. Persistance pays off!

Dave Johnson said...

Gary,

It's good to see that your trading is making progress. It is important to design the trade and then trade the way it was designed...whether short term or intermediate term. It really is amazing but the trend seems to win out over a series of trade as long as we designed enough time into our trade positions.

Thanks for taking the time to comment.

Dave

Dave Johnson said...

Anonymous,

Who is that masked person? The Lone Trader...Hi Ho Silver...I'm glad you're becoming a better trader. :)

Dave

Anonymous said...

Yes Dave I have done well with the BDK trade. I only wish I had more contracts than I have. But as Master Yoda once said : 'Size matters not' ...only follow your position size rules. If I stay in tune with the force (trend) and learn from the Master Yoda (Dave) perhaps the council (market) will someday knight me a Jedi (Trading) warrior.

May the Force (Trend) be with You
Ron :-)

Dave Johnson said...

Katy,

Sit back, relax and persistance...
I couldn't have said it better myself. You go girl!

Dave

Barbara Rubin said...

BDK has real nice follow through, and it keeps on giving. Thank you. Can't wait til next week in Philly. Am bringing my 21 yr old son, Jeff, who is getting into business and finance. He has listened to some of your trading rooms and can't wait to meet you. Currently, he is at Northeastern Univ, and doing a 6 month co-op internship at the Dept of the Treasury here in DC, while he also studies for the CFA level 1 exam. Busy boy. He wants to retire by age 40. I say "go for it". While he has much to learn, he has the discipline and focus to follow through, much like BDK. See you in Philly.

Dave Johnson said...

Ron,

We always said in when managing portfolios "we never had a large enough position in the winners, and the positions was always too large in the losers."

Well the way to fix that is to trade the Force (trend) and let the trend turn pull backs into winners.

Use the right position size is the right principle.

Dave

Dave Johnson said...

Barbara,

Alright, go BDK...See you in Philly.

Jeff retire at 40?...He means retire from working for others and then do something really good?

Dave

Anonymous said...

Wow Dave,
WHERE do you get all of this information at..?

Wow'ed
Laney

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dave Johnson said...

Laney,

Information? You mean off the Charts?

Congratulations on BDK.

Dave

Anonymous said...

No Dave,
In this instance I am talking the information you gave me here on Maxwell Maltz and visulation...

Trent said...

Dave,

Mucho kudos to you and this site. I didn't take the original BDK trade, but thanks to you, it did go into my watchlist. Yesterday was the trigger for me to go long - a close above the high of the higher low. Doing nicely today. Great call on BDK - oh, and everything else.

Have a wonderful holiday weekend and THANK YOU TONS FOR ALL YOU DO FOR US!!!

Beth Matthews said...

Good Afternoon Dave,
I most certainly listened to you about the BDK chart! You are such a great mentor and I value your consistency, discipline and enthusiasm. I am honored and feel very fortunate to have found you as a teacher. All of your efforts are very much appreciated. Looking forward to learning so much more from you! See you at the workshop.
Thank-you for EVERYTHING you do!
Beth Matthews

Dave Johnson said...

Laney,

Maxwell Maltz, I got my first copy some 30+ years ago...I might have been 8 or so at the time... :)

Dave

Dave Johnson said...

Trent,

You can't keep a good trader down. If at first you don't get the trade...trade, trade again. Better the second signal than never. If the trend continues, it should be a great entry.

Dave

Gary said...

Dave, Looking for advice if possible. Thinking of closing Sept $4 calls C. Don't want to lose theta overlong weekend but I know you're bullish on the XLF. Thoughts if you could look at the chart.

Thanks (spelled correctly)

Gary

Jim Ogle said...

Dave,

I'm in on BDK, FWLT, WLT, UAUA, X, and PCP. Just wanted you to know that your work is not fallening on deaf ears.

Thanks for all you do. Have a good LD and trip next week.

Can you let us know what you trade in the class on your post?

Jim

Dave Johnson said...

Gary,

No advice, but a look at the chart revels C is in an uptrend with a support bounce the last two days. C is up, but below its open the same as yesterday. You might want to check if theta for the weekend has already been squeezed out. It often it this late on Friday.

Dave

Gary said...

Dave,

I understand. Checked and I'm okay with the theta.

John Kevan said...

Gary
Your $4 Sept calls are almost all intrinsic value (.91 delta). Your only going to be affected by the price movement of the stock at this point.

John H said...

Dave,

I am also in a trade on BDK. Thanks to your tutoring and mentoring! But not advice, never advice. :)

Anonymous said...

Boy..you sure did start reading at an early age....that must be the reason you are so danged smart! ```wink```

The reason I deleted my comment on BDk is because i wanted to elaborate more-

I actually high lighted on the chart where the inverse H&S (Big step for me) is, and also traded it according to my portfolio size-Another big step for me...

Thanks Dave-ster!

Signed,
One of your Dudettes

Anonymous said...

Oh,
I just HAVE to comment again... I am laughing on how you posted your blow by blow movement of the market towards the last part of trading today..

Ending with @ 3:53 PM ET: "Their stride is starting to falter...do they have it.... gasp"

How cool! Laughing Very much!!!!
......Still laughing......
Still......
And still........

Unknown said...

Dave - I am in on BDK. Thank you! I appreciate all you do to reinforce the discipline it takes to be a GREAT TRADER! Following your rules and letting the trend make you money are BGOs for me!

Sheila