Tuesday, September 1, 2009

SPX Breaks Two Support Levels and Rests at 998...

Oh Wow! What a reversal this morning...were your prepared for the break of support like we alerted you this morning? I hope so...especially short term traders...Intermediate term traders in stocks and longer term options...the intermediate term trend is still up as the SPX pulled back from a higher high to a higher low... DJIA - 185.68, -1.96% SP500 - 22.58, -2.21% NASDAQ Comp. - 40.17, -2.00% Russell 2000 - 14.01, -2.45% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 519 580 Declining 2,546 2,162 Oil $68.05 -1.91 Gold $954.70 +$3.00 SOX 298.64 -7.54 VIX 29.15 +3.14 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Tuesday. The SOX confirmed the move down in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLU -0.79%...XLP -0.93%...XLV -1.61% Weakest Sectors: XLF -5.37%...XLB -2.95%...XLK -2.05% All nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday. Seven sectors were stronger than the SPX -2.21%. Financials and Material sectors were weaker. Financial stocks that were down but stronger than XLF -5.37%: AOC, CB, MMC, TRV, ICE, SCHW, GS, NTRS, CME, ALL, JPM, STT, WFC, TROW, IVZ, PNC, BK and MS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -2.05%: ORCL, MA, ADBE, TNX, IBM, GOO, SYMC, ADP, GLW, AAPL, AMT, AMAT and CSCO. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 1,017 = August 21 S1 level 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart target Key support levels: 992 - 996 = Early August Support Low 980 = July 23 Resistance - August 17 Support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance (click image to enlarge) After an early support bounce rally that last about 40 minutes, the SPX peaked around 1,028 and reversed dropping 30 points over the next three hours, finally closing at 998.04. This was the largest single day pull back since August 17 when the SPX reached 980. The SPX closed below its 30 DMA. On it way down the SPX broke the August 21 S1 level at 1,017 and the November high resistance now support at 1,007 before falling to the early August support low in the 996 area. This sell off occurred on rising volume as the DJIA volume jumped 66 million shares to 267 million shares on Tuesday. Volume was above average in AAPL, GOOG, BIDU, QCOM, MSFT and INTC. So I guess that means all those professionals that were alleged on vacation until after the Labor Day weekend showed back up to sell. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up and short term trend is down after Tuesday’s break of support. The SPX horizontal bull flag is gone and replaced by the traditional diagonal bull flag. Tuesday’s mid-section of its large black candle or R1 level of 1,009 is now the key short term resistance. When the market bounces this will be the level to watch for a break or failure. Failure to break this level would form a lower high. Short term traders likely exited positions this morning while itermediate term traders are likely continuing with the trend. As you look for support bounce opportunities or take advantage of moves to the downside continue to follow your rules. Our two virtual trade orders on BDK and WHR from Monday’s night Advanced Technical webcast did NOT trigger their buy stops. Potential Down Trend Setups: ADBE, ADSK, AKAM, AMAT, AMZN, APOL, BIDU, FAST, FSLR, HANS, NWSA Potential Lower Highs: AGCO, DOW, JCI, JOYG, WLT, WYNN Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: AXP, BAC, BDK, HOLX, INTC, JEC, JCG, MA, MRVL, SPG, TXN, X, XLNX, ZION, DE, CAT, STT, DD, AGU Breakout in Progress: WHR Breakout Setup: GRMN, FWLT, FLS DJIA stocks moved lower on Tuesday. AAPL -2.91 QCOM -1.07 GOOG -5.90 BIDU -11.30 NDX 100 stocks moved lower on Tuesday Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PSYS, MHS, AMED, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, FAS, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, UYG, ESI, SNA, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, PCP, WMT, EZPW, RBN, VAR, BKC, GR, CLB, JEC, BIIB, GES, HDB, ESRX, BDX, DLTR, NTLS, MCD, MYGN, ICE, NIHD, K Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 ORCL Moving Below 30 DMA = 20 AMX, APEI, BAP, DV, FLS, GME, HANS, HDB, ICE, JW.A PSYS, RCI, WCG, WRC, MON, EBAY, X, URE, PWRD, FUQI Staying Below 30 DMA CPLA, GXDX, MUR, PWR, STRA, TRLG, AFAM, DECK, GPRO, JOYG, SLGN, ATW, BIDU, HLF, MOS, NFLX, RIMM, SWN, CAN, VPRT, CHL, DLB, JCOM, SPWRA, AMZN, GMCR, PPD, ALGT, GILD, FSLR, SYNA, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Down

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