Friday, September 11, 2009

SPX Pauses After Five Straight Up Days...

DJIA - 22.07, -0.23% SP500 - 1.41, -0.14% NASDAQ Comp. - 3.12, -0.15% Russell 2000 - 1.31, -0.22% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,689 1,115 Declining 1,342 1,596 Oil $69.29 -2.65 Gold $1,005.20 +$9.50 - October contract SOX 321.24 -4.58 VIX 24.15 +0.60 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. The SOX confirmed the move down in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLI +0.65%...XLP +0.44%...XLE +0.39% Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.62%...XLY -0.33%...XLU -0.03% Six of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Industrials, Consumer Staples, Energy, Materials, Technology and Healthcare were stronger than the SPX -0.14%. Financial stocks that were down but stronger than XLF -0.62%:PNC, AFL, MET, USB, MS, CB, GS, SPG, TRV, CME, ZION, MMC and NTRS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.10%: ADBE, AMT, YHOO, ORCL, T, CSCO, IBM, GOOG, SYMC, DELL, ADP and EBAY. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,044 = October horizontal 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart target Key support levels: 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,017 = August 21 S1 level & August 27 support low 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 992 - 996 = Early August Support Low 980 = July 23 Resistance - August 17 Support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX closed at 1,042 at the October horizontal resistance area. In early June, early August and the last week of August as the SPX hit a significant prior horizontal resistance level the SPX paused and then pulled back. Since this is the way big money has been trading at horizontal resistance levels for the past three months we would expect a similar pattern at the 1,044 resistance area. Pauses and pull backs at the 950, 1,000 and 1,025 areas did not reverse the intermediate term trend but acted as a consolidation area. We would expect that pattern to be the most probable outcome at this time. The SPX, Nasdaq, DJIA and RUT all formed a bearish harami on Friday. Watch for a potential break of the low of the high day on Monday. Short term traders be mindful that Friday is the new high day. Guidance: After a strong support bounce over the last week and a half the SPX is at a significant resistance level. Be prepared for a potential pull back. Be on Yellow Alert. Stay with the trend you are trading and short term traders be prepared for a counter trend pull back. Stocks at resistance and that broke out of horizontal resistance will likely pull back if the SPX pulls back. Potential Breakout Setups: AXP, BDK, CAT, WHR, MA, TXN, SPG, JCI, WLT, JEC, FAST Breakout: FLS, FWLT, MRVL, XLNX, AGU, HOLX, BIDU, NWSA, ADBE Potential C Patterns: DE, AGCO, ADSK, APOL C Pattern Breakout: WYNN, AMAT, X, DOW, JOYG Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: BAC, INTC, JCG, ZION, DD, STT, HANS Bear Flag Setups: AKAM, AMZN, FSLR AAPL -0.40 QCOM -0.04 GOOG +1.20 BIDU -2.50 Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PSYS, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, PCP, RBN, VAR, GR, CLB, BIIB, GES, HDB, ESRX, BDX, DLTR, NTLS, MYGN, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, WCG, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, JEC, PWR, PWRD, RCI, RIMM, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ORCL, AMX, ATW, EZPW, GILD, HANS, MUR, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, HLF, MHS, PPD, PSYS, SWN, SYNA, ALGT, DECK, FSLR, VPRT, AMZN Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 GMCR, ACN, SPWRA Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 APEI, SLGN, WMT Staying Below 30 DMA BKC, CPLA, DV, MON, SNA MCD, MOS, ESI, AMED, ICE, STRA, AFAM, NFLX, CHL, DLB, JCOM, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

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