Friday, September 18, 2009

SPX Forms Inside Day Spinning Top...

DJIA +36.28 +0.37% SPX +2.81 +0.26% Nasdaq +6.11 +0.29% RUT +2.41 +0.39% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,760 1,430 Declining 1,254 1,315 Oil 72.04 -0.43 Gold 1,009.40 -3.20 SOX 326.48 +5.15 VIX 23.92 +0.27 The VIX moved up and did NOT confirm the move up in the SPX on Friday. This is the third day in a row that the VIX did not confirm the SPX. Candidly, these have been small non-confirmations and may mean absolutely nothing, but it is worth noting. The SOX moved up and confirmed the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLP +0.59%...XLK +0.24%...XLY +0.04% Weakest Sectors: XLI -1.10%...XLV -0.86%...XLE -0.79% Three of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Only Consumer Staples was stronger than the SPX +0.26%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.46%: CME, SPG, USB, ICE, KEY, STT, MS, ALL, GS, TROW, PNC, ZION, CB, MMC, AFL, BAC, JPM, NTRS, AOC and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.24%: T, AMT, TXN, MA, HPQ, INTC, ORCL, ADBE, ADP, VZ and AAPL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Key Resistance Levels: 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Support Key Support Levels 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level
1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = Aug 27 Support Low The SPX regained Thursday’s modest move down and did not confirm the bearish harami. It did form an inside day spinning top which can signal a potential short term correction or pull back. After nine of the last eleven moving up with only two mini down days, it is prudent to recognize the potential for a move down. (click image to enlarge) Yes, the trend is still up and an intermediate term trader wants to stay with the trend, but those who take profits when the short term trend hits resistance wants to pay attention here just in case a pull back occurs, especially if the SPX breaks 1,061. The SPX is pausing at the 1,075 chart target which is a horizontal resistance area. If the SPX breaks out, look for it to rise to the next resistance area of 1,100. (click image to enlarge) As mentioned on Wednesday, here are the results on the real time virtual trades on September options that were closed on Wednesday September 16 and Friday September 18. These trades were placed live in Dave’s AT Trading Rooms and Chicago AT Workshop at the end of July. (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Stay with the trend you are trading. The SPX, Nasdaq, RUT and DJIA did NOT confirm the bearish harami formed on Thursday. Thursday is still the high day. 1,061 Wednesday's S1 level is a key short term support level. Short term traders continue to be on Yellow Alert. Remember that stocks at resistance or that broke out of horizontal resistance will likely pull back if the SPX pulls back. Potential Breakout Setups: DE, STT, JCG, JCI Breakout: RIMM, APOL, FSLR, JEC, MA, CAT, JOYG, BUCY, FWLT, AGU, DOW, FAST, AXP, DD, X, WHR, SPG, BDK, FLS, BIDU, NWSA, V, FLIR, AKAM, AMZN Pulling Back: WLT, TXN, WYNN, AMAT, ZION Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: XLNX, ADBE, MRVL, HOLX, BAC, INTC, HANS Potential Down Trend Setups: AGCO AAPL +0.47 QCOM -0.56 GOOG -0.26 BIDU +0.79 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX SBUX, CERN, FSLR, SHLD, LRCX, XLNX, NIHD, ILMN, TEVA, FWLT, KLAC, MXIM, STX, EXPD, URBN, BRCM, LIFE, ISRG, ALTR, BBBY, RIMM, HANS, CTAS and DTV. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PSYS, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, CBST, WAB, CLB, PCP, RBN, VAR, CLB, BIIB, GES, HDB, ESRX, BDX, DLTR, NTLS, MYGN, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, WCG, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, JEC, PWR, PWRD, RCI, RIMM, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, MUR, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, HLF, MHS, PPD, PSYS, SWN, SYNA, ALGT, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SPWRA, SLGN, AFAM, FSLR, JCOM, MOS, NFLX, HANS, ICE, MCD, APEI, DLB, DV Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 AMED, BKC Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 AMX, GILD, GR Staying Below 30 DMA BLUD, BYI, ORCL, WMT, CPLA, MON, SNA, ESI, STRA, CHL, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks Dave-
Nice end to a fantastic week!
Enjoy your posts more and more- -
Laney

Mark Crockett said...

Dave
I went back to look at each of the entries on these trades and they all fit the simple rules you helped us establish. Thanks for helping us grow in confidence.
Mark

Mike F said...

Dave, are the sell dates on the Sept positions supposed to be Sept 17/18 vs August?