1:30 pm ET - After last night's weather delayed flight I managed to make it home a little after 4 am MT. Although I woke up for about one minute shortly before the open and saw the ES futures up about 5 points, I decided the long positions would take care of themselves just fine and went back to sleep.
Finally arising it appears that even in my sleep my judgement was accurate about Friday's price action. I know, I know you're asking yourself, how does he do that? It really is quited simple...it's because I know what I have taught many of you repeatedly for five years...
Dave's Insight: The trend is the most important factor in every trade.
What was the trend this morning? Up
After some range bound trading on Thursday the market was moved higher by big money late in the day. Over night and leading into this morning that upward bias was still in the price action. Also Thursday upward bias survived the all NOT as important as some people make it out to be, at least as it relates to trend, Jobless Claims report which came in slightly worse than expected 640,000 versus 636,000 forecasted. The Existing Home Sales report was also below forecast.
After the large one day pullback on Monday, support holding on Tuesday, price action staying above the 20 DMA (support for the short term trend) on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and Thursday rallying even after those economic reports, it seemed a high probability conclusion that big money was interested in moving the market higher it again today.
Did you watch the four charts this morning that I posted for you last night. Here they are after this morning's trading...It almost appears as if this Trend and Support and Resistance stuff has some merit to it, eh?
(click image to enlarge)
6 comments:
Hi Dave,
Sounds like you've been put through the ringer and still manage to find the time to blog and help us all out.. Thank you!
I really like the chart addition to the site.. helps to really "see" whats happening along with commentary.
In last Friday's market wrap I know the general consensus was that you didn't want to be long going into the end of this week.. however we're up pretty good today after yesterdays end of day rally. Guessing we'll have to be ready for a sell off/pull back at end of day today or possibly early next week and will continue to watch price movement.
Have a nice weekend and hopefully you'll be on Market Wrap again today.. if you're not too tired.
Thanks again.
Toni
Dave,
Thanks for the addition of the charts, they are awesome and yes I did check them out this morning. I even executed a nice entry already on SHLD.
Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on the Friday Wrap.
Bob Almasi
Dave , the master (trader) chess man, can i share it this way. Plan your trades NOT from what the market is doing today but what your forcast is confirmed by probablities. An reap the rewards by following your rules.
inspired by the viewing many times of someone who was driven and believed , but I am not ready for a make over but working on it. I will be a better trader this year ,because i see my faults and making changes.
Face it Dave....You were probably manipulating the trend in your sleep! I guess all those positive, spiritual books that your quote for us from time to time (really love those by the way) have really helped you to be a great trader even in sleeping. Last nights circumstances brought out this ability so there is no hiding it now!
Hi Dave,
Glad you're in one piece!
I must tell you I had a little giggle reading your blog, noticing a couple of "eh?"s! Sounds Canadian & I love it!!
You never cease to amaze me. My trading has certainly improved due to you & I'm able to enter/exit with greater confidence. Love the charts....MANY THANKS FOR ALL YOU DO!!!!!
Lois (a Canadian, of course!)
Dave,
The Atlanta Workshop was fantastic, and I really enjoyed the two days. The most important BGO was the Bull Flags and Bear Flags. I left at 5:00 PM Thursday Night for Orange County, CA. to finally arrived home 10:00 AM Friday Morning, what an adventure.
Thank you for all help you provide to the New Traders.
Jim Ehorn
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