Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Stocks Bounce on Light Volume...

DJIA + 47.55, +0.61% SP500 + 9.61, +1.18% NASDAQ Comp. + 29.05, +1.86% Russell 2000 + 10.42, +2.41% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,696 1,966 Declining 989 761 Oil $49.38 +$0.23 Gold $884.80 +$2.60 SOX 242.71 +6.81 VIX 38.85 -1.54 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. Today marks the lowest close on the VIX since Jan. 6, which indicates that fear is continuing to drift lower. Strongest Sectors: XLY +2.83%...XLK +1.49%...XLE +1.28% Weakest Sectors: XLF +0.55%...XLV +0.67%...XLP +0.84% All sectors moved higher on Wednesday with the Financial Sector XLF, +0.55%, was the weakest. Stocks strong that +0.55% include: PRU, IVZ, ALL, AXP, AFL, ICE, SPG, CB, MET, NTRS, TROW, TRV, CME, BK, SCHW, MMC, PNC, JPM and ETF’S UYG and FAS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK, +1.49%: EMC, ADBE, DELL, SYMC, GLW, EBAY, TXN, IBM, MSFT, QCOM, AMAT and CSCO. Sector Watch Up Trending: Sideways: XLE, XLY, XLV, XLK, XLB Down Trending: XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU In this morning’s post we alerted you to be mentally flexible because of the pattern of two day consolidations since March 9. Once again this was the case as buyers moved prices higher again setting up support opportunities today and likely heading into Thursday. Volume was again light with the DJIA trading just 255 million shares. Expect volume to light on Thursday which is the last trading day before Good Friday and the Easter weekend. Only 16 NDX 100 stocks traded above average volume. More than half, 53, of NDX 100 stocks traded volume 30% to 63% below average. Index Commentary The DJIA formed a white spinning top in a bullish harami type pattern…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA…volume was a below average 255 million less than Tuesday’s 276 million. The SPX formed a bullish harami pattern…closed near Tuesday’s R1 level (see chart below)…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA The Nasdaq white candle broke the Tuesday’s high which is the low day…made a higher low and higher high…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA The RUT formed a bullish harami…closed above Tuesday’s R1 level…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA (click image to enlarge) SHLD Entry Gains 24% Last night and this morning we included SHLD in our At the Open list. This morning before the open we included the SHLD chart on the Bull Flag. During our live webcast this morning we entered a real time virtual trade, a buy at support for 12 May 55 calls at 1.75. The stop was at 46.50 on the stock. Target 1 is 55 and Target 2 is 59 to 61. The trade was entered at 8:42 am. The stock moved higher for the day and the options closed at 2.17. This was a 24.2% return on the first day. (click image to enlarge) SNDA Options Gain 176% Last week (see Wednesday April 1 and Thursday April 2) we shared another real time virtual trade on SNDA entered Tuesday morning March 31. 10 May 40 calls at 2.15. 5 contracts were closed on Thursday at 5.30, a gain of 146%. We held the last 5 contracts until today when the stock reached a price target of 45 established when the order was entered Monday night March 30. The last 5 contracts were sold at 6.60, a gain of 206%. The average gain on the 10 contracts was 176%...Let the trend make you money! (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – white spinning top at high of low day WYNN – hammer on second day pullback X –hammer on third day of pullback URE – hammer/bullish harami NOC – two day bull flag COV – break high of the low day CELG – hammer low day after bear flag break SNDA – break out of pennant hits 45 price target DECK – new high close on horizontal breakout BIIB – new high close horizontal breakout after bullish engulfing CTSH – hammer close…above 200 DMA…inside day EBAY – hammer like candle in bull flag SCHN – hammer break high of the low day BRCM – break high of the low day LEAP – black candle at 200 DMA…slightly higher high and higher low SHLD – bullish harami in bull flag (see chart) Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, BKC, NFLX, DLTR, HANS, ICE, ALGT, DLB, JEC, PWR, VPRT, AMZN, USD, AAPL, CTSH, FLS, JOYG, APEI, AXYS, BAP, CAM, GMCR, GPRO, JCOM, JOSB, MUR, PETS, WMT, ATW, GR, BIIB, SLGN, SWN, SYNA, SNHY, EBAY, GES, SNA, ORCL, WRC, DECK, HDB, PCP, UYG, FSLR, GME, WCG, RIMM, X, BDX, BYI, CBST, EZPW, HLF, MYGN, MCD, AMX, MHS, WAB, FAS, AFAM, CHL, JW.A, K, MOS, NTLS, RBN, RCI, ESRX, PCLN, URE, GILD, AMED, VAR Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 MON, PCR, PPD Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA BLUD, DV, ESI, GXDX, STRA, TDG, CPLA, NIHD, SPWRA, ACN, PSYS Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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