Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Futures Point to a Lower Open

5:32 pm ET - Thank you for all the Comments...they are certainly worth taking the time to read. A couple of clarifications: ET stands for Eastern Time, this is for clarity because readers are in different time zones. A bullish harami, an inverted hammer, a hammer, a dragonfly doji, a piercing line and a bullish engulfing pattern are all BULLISH candle patterns. However, not all bullish candle patterns will follow through with a bullish move, some will fail. In technical analysis nothing is 100% not even bullish candle patterns. Dave's Insight: Technical analysis is based on probability, not certainty. The fact that a pattern will fail a percentage of the time does not negate the fact that it is a bullish or for that matter a bearish pattern. My point today is this...if the technical analysis on the chart is showing you that big money is net on balance buying and you're thinking bearish because of the futures OR you think you can guess the economic news or big money's reaction to it OR you're listening/reading to some Talking Head on tv or in some blog, etc whom you think can guess consistently, you and maybe even the person you are listening/reading to are in a state of denial or worse, ignorance. A denial or ignorance of the actual buying and selling actions of the money that moves the market. Talk is cheap. Actions speak louder than words. The technicals are all about the actions and nothing about the words. 11:30 am ET - Is the daily SPX chart (see chart just below) bullish or bearish before the open this morning? Post your answer in the Comments section... Is a Bullish Harami, bullish or bearish? Is an Inverted Hammer, bullish or bearish? Is a Hammer bullish or bearish? Straight Talk from a Pro You should be asking yourself a very important question about this morning... Were you paying attention to the news, noise (somebody's comments about the market) or the technicals on the chart this morning? If you are paying attention to somebody's comments instead of the technicals, you are going to keep living the trader's nightmare! Talk is cheap. Actions speak louder than words. The technicals are all about the action and nothing about the words. You want different results, stop listening to the Talking Heads on TV or in the blogs that keep giving you their opinions, speculations and guesses that are inconsistent with the techncals and start paying very close attention to the technicals! Post in Comments how you feel about some very straight talk... (click on image to enlarge) 10:45 am ET - ES hits 799.50... Dave's Insight: Trade the market, not your thoughts...this morning is just one more example of what I have been teaching for years...you have to be mentally flexible and stay focused on what the market is doing...the market opened lower but has been trading higher ever since...I keep saying that the futures being down before the open does not tell you if the day will be down or up...it does not even tell what the trading will be after the cash market opens...it ONLY tells you what the open will be. You then must trade the market...NOT what you think the market will do. Please listen to the correct principles I am teaching you, stop paying attention to the noise in the market and letting yourself be distracted...Post some comments today if you understand what I am saying or if don't get it yet... 10:11 am ET - the ES has risen to the 790 resistance and is consolidating...if it breaks through next key resistance is 800... 9:58 am ET - the ES is seeing a bit of a support bounce at this moment if it follows through watch the 790 resistance... 9:43 am ET - WYNN +0.94, SNDA -0.53 in early trading...ES has found some support around 780... we'll watch this area to see if it holds...790 is short term resistance this morning... 9:34 am ET - SPY opens lower...there is early heavy selling in CELG, APOL adn URBN as these stocks are down significantly... BMO - ES -11 and NQ -17 futures are lower this moring pointing to a lower open. We'll watch key short term support levels as we posted on Tuesday after the close. At the Open on Wednesday SPY – doji SNDA – confirmed hammer rose to horizontal resistance DECK – confirmed hammer CTSH – confirmed hammer CRM – bullish harami NFLX – rose to horizontal resistance GME – rose to horizontal resistance WYNN – bullish harami ILMN – confirmed dragon fly doji SCHN – bullish harami MHS – closed above 30 DMA GILD – closed above 30 DMA

32 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yes, really get it. Was long spy from yesterday. Didn't get shaken out this morning and that helps me very much. Was long Amazon, same story. Am getting a good education by looking at each stock in your "Before market opens" section. First I look at it and make my analysis, then check it with the blogs words. Today using the market matrix to do some searches on V.Volume for my watchlists. All this education and trading room info is having the desired affect with me in a real way. Thanks.

Unknown said...

Yes I get it and I appreciate you reminding me in the process. Trade with the Trend! I have burned it into my brain. Turn the TV off, look at the analysis and make a logical unemotional trades. Stick with your rules and don't deviate. I am a Great Trader!!!!!

Thank You, DAVE!!!!!

Ready to learn more,
Michael V.

wayne said...

Dave,

Yes I get it and need to be reminded that bad news is sometimes bad news and that good news is sometimes bad news. This could be the 8th wonder of the world!

Thank You and God Bless,
Wayne

Luis Guerra said...

Dave,
Slowly but surely I am learning to trade the market and not my emotions or thoughts. I have positions in NFLX, TRA and DECK. All three went down at the open but the entry signals and the stop orders were still valid. After a while all three positions are moving up, just like the charts had indicated they may.
Thank you for your continuous education. Regards,
Luis

Gary S said...

Yes... get it. Still suffer from initial emotions (keep 'em in check) and your post serves as an excellent reminder. Thank you for your daily commitment to teach this material.

Gary

Robert said...

i would say it is yellow alert you would want to see it break above the 2 candle pull back to be bullish on that chart , looks like the 810 level

DeaconBlues said...

Dave... I'm in the "starting to get it" category. The more I see, read and comprehend, "Trade the market, not your thoughts..." the more I begin to understand. Staying mentally flexible and focused on what the market actually does kept me from panicking this morning. Despite the futures indicating a lower open I do remember your saying in the AI talk last Thursday night that the futures being down (or up, for that matter) before the open does not tell you if the day will be down or up... it "ONLY" tells you what the open will be. From there, we have to TRADE THE MARKET and NOT what I THINK the market will do. And the more I listen and read, the more I'm "getting it". In the past, I've been too focused on paying attention to the noise in the market and becoming distracted... I've actually turned the TV OFF and am trying to rely on my own interpretations (with your lead, of course). So, keep reminding us - I think I'm getting it!

Anonymous said...

I get it as well. Now it is a matter of focus on my rules and discipline. The Qs opened today 1 penny above the 62% retracement Fibo (the Leonardo Level, if you like alliteration)of the Mar 20 to 26 part of this uptrend then traded 15 cents lower before trading up again. As I write, the
Qs continue up past my price filtered entry yesterday, as the Qs broke above Monday's high. Trend, focus, rules, discipline and great education. That's the key, thanks Dave, Michael Miller

Anonymous said...

I love the straight talk Dave. That is one of many reasons I have an enormous respect for you and the education you provide to whomever is listening. I'm listening and learning.
Thanks again, Michael Miller

Bruce said...

Yes, I am becoming a better trader. I do check the futures before the open to see what is going on. Just have to trade the market and on panic. Trade your rules, use your mind.

John Kevan said...

Is a Bullish Harami, bullish or bearish?
Is an Inverted Hammer, bullish or bearish?
Is a Hammer bullish or bearish?

Neither but if at support, a good indication of a possible bullish move with confirmation if you are a confirmation trader. Also a good lower risk entry if you trade in a more anticipatory style as you can set your stop tigher.

CR said...

SPX chart was bullish for the open. Straight talk is an extremly useful commentary. Your insight and teaching really helps me keep focased on what the chart is showing and not what i want it to do skewing my conclusions. You help me keep things clear and simple. Thank-you

Anonymous said...

Sad to say, I am one of the people living in trader hell. I try not to listen to the talking heads, but somehow I get a preconceived notion of what the market will do (which of course is wrong). Intellectually I understand technical analysis, but putting it into practice has been problematic for me; my patterns fail, or I make the mistake of jumping out too soon. I'm like the poster child for doing it wrong.

Having said that; I am determined to get it right. I sense the truth in it.

Thanks for teaching Dave! You really are the best. I hope to start living up to it soon.


d. gorman

Unknown said...

Dave, I get it and rarely listen to news and when I do I don't take it to heart. I think the SPX chart showed us that it would go up today. Hammers are bullish signals. Am watching NFLX and waiting for another buy signal
Gary Smith

Rodger & Jackie said...

Just found you. We were at your workshop in Dallas last month and like what we heard. We have been watching your Capstones and find them very helpful. It may take us awhile but we think we understand what you are doing. Not sure what “ET” means and are just are starting on Learn the Discipline. Thanks for your help

C. E. Webster said...

We understand and thank you for your insights. Today we were not faked out and are happy to still have our bullish positions. Love the new format for the blog. Thanks for all you do.

Anonymous said...

Right on Dave...your da man....learning more with each capstone and active investors talk...keep in info coming....thanks

Ron V.

Anonymous said...

Dave,

The first hour of trading can wash away overnight losses, like today. The market can move in either direction based on the overnight market. I have found that not trading the first hour, which takes the emotion out. I want to thank you for the New Charts added to the post, they really help.

Jim

Doyle V said...

Straight talk is a rarity nowdays - I say we need more of it. Thanks, Dave and keep the Straight Talk coming - it is very much appreciated. Also much thanks for the many insightful comments, the technical talks on Thur and help you give all of us.

Dick said...

My Daily Review last evening, I determined $spx closed above both FIBI 23 and Support level at 780 going back to Jan. Also FIBO 23 is same as S-1 (3/23 C?S). We moved above R @ 804 but pulled back slightly. Inverted Hammer for Tues. We did not close above Hi of Low day, but I used the 3/23 S-1 as controlling S, so I entered some trades late Tues afternoon. Still above 50 DMA all day = Strong.$VIX was down larger %age than Index = Good. I was looking at S-1 @ 795, S-2 @ 780 and S-3 @ 770. Not trading in the first 1/2 hour, everything was following potential uptrend move.

Dick

Anonymous said...

Dave, I've been listening to your caps for quite a while now, and still had quite a drawdown in my account. Guess I wasn't "hearing". Of late, I listen to the news reports (CNBC, you name it), then I go look at my charts and "look for what Dave would see". Since I can watch the day unfold, I am more flexible and when I read the charts correctly, well you know. I'm making up ground with my acct, and my psychological attitude, (my TRADER mentality) has improved. Can't say Thanks enough.

Danny

Eric said...

Dave,

Higher low and a higher high today. confirmation also on the bullish harami, looks like we should be headed upwards. Volume still looks really light across the board. Seems like people are waiting for the move to happen. Maybe waiting for tomorrow to happen.

Eric

Anonymous said...

Dave I really enjoy the changes you've made. I now read your posts first thing I do in the morning.

I'm really starting to get it. Thanks to your insights. Had winners and losers today - but I'm learning.

John H said...

Dave, just one word for the chart: Priceless.

John H said...

Rodger & Jackie, getting a handle on the trading vocabulary and abbreviations can be tough. I've been learning to trade for two years and am still learning everyday. One thing I've learned is that I tend to overthink things. Sometimes things really are simpler than we try to make them. ET after the time just refers to the Eastern Time zone. Hope this helps.

Anonymous said...

Dave - I am getting it (actually I'm Diggin' it). I was surprised at the sell off and lower futures initially but I was watching the charts. My expectation was for a support hold given the current conditions. I entered multiple positions yesterday and they kept above their stop loss exit points. Thanks for ALL you do...

Anonymous said...

I too appreciate only the straight talk. We get enough of the other from the Talking Heads. Even if I'm not happy with the message, I always appreciate knowing I will only hear the truth from you Dave.

All the best ... Jim Blande

Barbara Rubin said...

Dave,
What's not to like? I love it all!
I appreciate your straight talk, your insightful commentary, your new format using the charts, and your adaptability to meeting our needs with changes to your blog. Your enthusiasm, commitment, and dedication in having us learn, and really learn to do it the right way, is very apparent in all that you do. Putting that all together is, WOW, absolutely an impressive package as a teaching tool. Thank you for sharing the precious gift of your knowledge and time to make it happen.
You I trust; not the market or the talking heads. So having me learn from you how to read the charts and the market action is so very vital to any success I will get in being a great trader. In the end, I must learn to trust myself in what I see on the charts, having the probabilities on my side.
I can't thank you enough. I really appreciate your efforts. Your blog keeps me focused and supports my addiction for a Daily Dose of Dave Day. I am always ready to learn more.

Thanks,
Barbara

TDanna said...

Love the Charts. Can really See what you're talking about. Also really appreciate the very straight forward talk. Thank you! Love this site!
Toni

Bruce G said...

Dave,

Love the straight talk, feel like you are speaking directly to me. After attending the AT in Orlando this past december and tuning in on Thursday nights for Active Investor Talks, I feel like I am finally getting it! Keep up the honest feedback and drill the discipline into us

Am deleting CNBC and other commentaries from my daily readng ASAP! Like your new setup, unfortunately work prevents me from taking advantage of your ongoing posts as much as I would like.

reallly like the new chart additions, helps hammer home the points. If you could address the short term trend changes as they occur, that would help me tremendously. That is much harder for me than trading a more clearly defined trend with a bull flag or such.

Thanks for all you do, here, on Thursday nights, and in the various capstones. You have a great deal of influence on us, much more than you realize.

Keep it coming,

Bruce Gerlander

SC Dave said...

a bullish harami is bullish With confirmation

A hammer is bullish with confirmation in a downward move)

an inverted hammer is bullish at the bottom of a down move (could be the making of a bear flag)

Rodger - Jackie said...

Thanks for your input John. We are not quite as dense as it may seem, just a bad typist. Really meant to type “ES”.