Friday, January 9, 2009
Failure to Confirm Thursday's Candle Patterns
DJIA - 143.28, -1.64%
SP500 - 19.38, -2.13%
NASDAQ Comp. - 45.42, -2.81%
Russell 2000 - 20.71, -4.13%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,157 720
Declining 2,645 2,080
Oil $40.83 -$0.87
Gold $854.30 +$0.40
SOX 215.28 -7.26
VIX 42.82 +0.61
The VIX moved up slightly confirming the move down in the SPX on Friday. There was, however, a disparity with the small rise in the VIX and the larger drop in the SPX, suggesting that the pull back was not accompanied by an similar increase in fear. We will see if this equates into a short-term bottom Friday or early next week.
Strongest Sectors: XLU -0.78%...XLV -1.06%...XLP -1.71%
Weakest Sectors: XLE -3.36%...XLF -3.18%...XLY -3.07%
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLU, XLY, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLK, XLF
Down Trending:
The indices closed below Thursday's low on Friday. The indices are well above their late December lows so continue to watch for a potential support bounce and a higher low on Monday.
Index Commentary
The DJIA did not confirm Thursday’s hammer…closed just below its 20, 30 and 50 DMA.
The SPX did not confirm Thursday’s hammer… closed below its 20 DMA and above its 30 and 50 DMA.
The Nasdaq did not confirm Thursday’s piercing line pattern…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA.
The RUT fell below Thursday’s low…closed below its 20 DMA and above its 30 and 50 DMA.
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Leading Stocks:
Holding Above 30 DMA
AYE…PCLN…BAP…FLR…JEC…PCR…ATK…RTN…SNA…WMS…JOSB…AMZN…BIIB…BYI…HDB…FWLT…QSII…VMI…OI…FLS…BCO…MOS…ROST…AET…POT…UTX…APH…CAM…CCC…CIR…CL…DECK…ESI…GES…GILD…JW.A…MYGN…ACL…DNA…HLF…OSIP…AGN…KEX…LAYN…RIO…SHW…AMED…PETS…BCR…CAM…FLIR…NGS…NOV…SPN…CTSH…IIVI…K…NIHD…PCP…SWN…AMX…HP…ADBE…ATW…GME…MBT…MON…RIMM…LNN…RIG… ICLR…SYNA…CBST…BLUD
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
DV…STRA…TEVA
Moving Below 30 DMA = 15
AAPL…AFAM…AME…DLTR…EPR…FSTR…HAS…LFC…MMM…MTW…NE…NEU…RCI…SOHU…VIP
Staying Below 30 DMA
GIS…PTNR…AXYS…URBN…MTD…SINA…PRGO…PPD…ESRX…CHTT…IRIS…ISRG…SPTN…CELG…ENDP…TECH…ANSS…CHU…EZPW…NILE…PSSI…PSYS…VIVO…WAB… CERN…JCOM…MCRS…NDAQ
Friday’s Action
Moving Up: STRA, FSLR, DRYS,
Moving Down: AFAM, COH, ESRX, MA, SCHN, X, GS, ANR, ONXX, MON, PCLN, CLF, KRE, NUE, CNX, SINA, SOHU, MOS, KBE, NIHD, CF, PNRA
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral – DJIA, SPX, Nasdaq, RUT
Short Term Market Trend: Down
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7 comments:
I noticed that too Dave...that the VIX was much smaller confirmation than usual even though it was a confirmation.
Even though I noticed that in my market review, it didn't really register until I read your blog. Thank you.
Is there some general number correlation as to how the two usually relate? Today for example the SPX was down 20 points and the VIX was up about (ballpark ) .20 that is a ratio of 100 to 1.
That's similar to the relationship between the DOW and the Diamonds.
Scott,
There is no fixed relationship as with the Dow and DIA. The percentage comparison might be the easiest way to grasp the concept. When one of the percentages is small while the other is much larger it could be considered a clue that a turn may occur. It, of course, is not as strong as an actual non-confirmation.
DJ
Dave, can you give us your opinions on the acquisition of ThinkorSwim and INVESTools? Are you still going to be around after the merger?
I don't think INVESTools would be the same without you around. Keep up the good work Dave! You are a great educator!
Dave
I have your global green arrow search in my IT searches. Is this how you find the one green arrow on the charts you have listed on this blog that are moving above the 30 dma
Anonymous,
Thank you for the vote of confidence. I have no information or opinions beyond what both companies have publically stated. They both like the deal. Like all employees I will have to wait to find out what my status will be. I am like Sgt. Schultz from Hogan's Heros..."I know nothzing." :)
DJ
DJ
John,
The watchlist for Stocks to Watch are from a search I ran in early November. I did delete some of the stocks form that search that I did not want to follow.
DJ
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