SPY Falls to Short-term Support and Buyers Create Bounce...

All ten sectors moved lower and on Friday …XLF, XLV and XLU were the strongest sectors while XLV was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell -1.01 to close at 49.55.

For the week ended October 7 just one of ten sectors moved higher,

XLF +1.66%, XLE +0.00%, XLK -0.33%, XLV -0.33%, XLY -0.45%,

SPY -0.58%,

Lagging sectors XLI -1.29%, XLP -1.65%, XLB -1.86%, XLU -3.82%, XLRE -5.28%,

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XLF Leaders This Week: MET, NTRS, GS, RF, C, STI, KEY, STT, LNC, PRU, CMA, HBAN, BBT and BAC.

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XLF turned positive YTD this week while XLV and XLRE turned negative YTD.  There are now two negative sectors YTD.

YTD 194

Leading Sectors: XLE +17.06%, XLK +11.08%, XLU +8.87%, XLI +8.58%, XLB +7.92%,

SPY +5.48%,

Lagging Sectors: XLP +3.64%, XLRE +4.23%, XLY +2.02%, XLF +1.39%, XLV-0.22%, XLRE -1.27%

Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,071 to 912 on the NYSE and led 1,825 to 967 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +0

Thursday – weakened, decliners led, +7

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +1

Monday – weakened, decliners led, +1

SPY down .74 at 215.04 on 89.7 million shares, 7% below average volume

VIX up .64 at 13.48

TLT up .09 at 133.92…on 9.9 million shares, 16% above average volume

Technical Commentary:

SPY -0.34%, QQQ -0.22%, DIA -0.16%, IWM -0.80%,

SPY moved lower on Friday and fell -0.58% for the week.  The SPY had its narrowest weekly trading range, 2.31, in eight weeks.  Most notable was on both Tuesday and Friday short-term support held in the 214 area just as it had last week.

Financials had a strong week returning to YTD profitability.

QQQ horizontal breakout setup

IWM bull flag setup

SPY, DIA symmetrical triangle setup

AA kicks of the Q3 earnings season on Tuesday, October 11 before the market opens.  This is the last earnings report before the company spinoff it raw aluminum operation under the name Alcoa and change the parent company name to Arconic on Nov. 1   AA completed a 1 for 3 reverse stock split on Thursday.

EPS Positive Reactions

COST, RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions

MU, PAYX, CCL

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include: IWM, TWLO, GPRO, TRIP, AKAM, UAL, SINA, SYMC, NUE, X, STLD, AKS, ISRG, SCHN, BIDU, ADBE, CHTR, AMBA, WDC, APA, STX, LVS, WB, EA, NVDA, PYPL, ATVI, HA,

Bull Flag Bounces include: QCOM,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: QQQ, NCLH, JD, EXPE, NTES, ULTA, BAC, CHK, INTC, AMAT, RCL, AAL, MU, NTAP, TXN, PCAR, RL, ATI, GT, CAVM, WMB, SE, FB, LMCA, AAPL, URBN, FOSL, BABA, ADSK, FL,

Horizontal Breakout include: RL, FL,

New Highs include: LRCX, JPM, C, SWKS, CSX, NTES, LITE, NXPI, NFLX, AMZN, PCLN, ILMN, ADSK, SCHW, STT, ZION, ETFC, BAC, MA, INTC,

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Short-term Movers for the week:

SPX gainers:  GPS, SIG, MET, URBN, NTRS, AMG, JWN, FTI, SS, GS, BHI, RF, C, STI, KEY, +4, 20

SPX losers:  NEM, IRM, APD, AES, PPG, TSN, AYI, AIV, HON, O, CNC, UDR, HCN, PLD, AVB, FCX, PL, VMC, LKQ, CCI, KMI, PNR, NI, SPLS GGP,MAC, CNP FRT, DLR, AWK, EQR, HCP, BXP, FE, VTR, RIG, CAN, MLM, , -4, 71

NDX gainers:  NFLX, LRCX, CTSH, NTES, SWKS, +4, 5

NDX losers:  SRCL, MYL, LBTYA, GILD VIAB, -4, 5,

YTD: 194

SPX Leaders:  OKE, SWN, NEM, SE, URBN, RRC, XEC, PVH, EW, CXO, (313, -26 > 10p 218, -12)

SPX Losers:  FSLR, CF, PRGO, SIG, HRB, KR, GCI, RCL, LB, EQR

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, CHTR, LLTC, NTES, QCOM, ISRG, NTAP, YHOO, TXN (63, +0, >10p 39, 0)

NDX Losers:  ENDP, ALXN, NCLH, SRCL, VRTX, MYL, LMCA, QVCA, REGN, TRIP

DJI Leaders:  CAT, MRK, UNH, JNJ, CSCO, MMM, CSCO, CVX, PG, IBM, (21, +0, >10p 11, -1)

DJI Losers:  NKE, DIS, AXP, BA, GE, GS, MCD, HD, KO, TRV

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 58, defensive.  

28 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

51 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

 

Moving Below 30 DMA = 8

AMAT, CA, CHTR, EBAY, HSIC, LBTYA, WFM, YHOO

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral