Thursday, October 13, 2016

Futures Sink After China Export Data, SPX Finds Support...ULTA Crashes to the Upside on Raised Guidance...Airline Stocks Soar Following DAL...

Four of ten sectors moved higher on ThursdayXLU, XLRE and XLV were the strongest sectors while XLF was the weakest sector.  Oil futures rise 0.54 to close at 50.55.

Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,025 to 1,027 on the NYSE and led 2,033 to 791 on the NASDAQ.

Thursday – weakened, decliners led, +4
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +6
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +0
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Friday – weakened, decliners led, +0


SPY down .70 at 213.01 on 100.9 million shares, 1% above average volume
VIX up .78 at 16.69
TLT up .50 at 133.46…on 7.0 million shares, 17% below average volume


Technical Commentary:
DIA -0.29%, SPY -0.30%, QQQ -0.36%, IWM -0.80%,

SPX futures fell overnight after China reported that exports dropped 5.6%, measured in yuan, in September which converts to a 10.0% drop in U.S. dollars.  In dollars imports fell 1.9%.

SPY opened lower and fell to its recent Sep 12 support hitting 211.21 where buyers took control and prices rose above the open and formed a hammer like white candle.

SPX Leaders: ULTA, AAL, HCA, RRC, ALK, LUV, CSX, PGR, CTSH, UHS, CHK, MYL, SWN, PLD

A positive reaction to DAL’s earnings as airline stocks AAL, SAVE, LUV, ALK, HA, JBLU and UAL take off.

ULTA +27.17, +11.37% led the SPX and NDX on Thursday after raising their Q3 outlook.

CSX +0. 94, +3.11% on better than expected net income.

JPM, C and WFC report earnings before the open on Friday.


EPS Positive Reactions
DAL, CSX, COST, RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions
AA, FAST, ILMN, MU, PAYX, CCL


Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: NVDA, LVS, WB, AAPL, ADBE, ADSK, AKAM, AMZN, CTRP, GOOG, LRCX, NCLH, NFLX, NXPI, QCOM, SWKS, WDC, JPM, BAC, C, STI, ZION, GS, MS, ETFC, SCHW, UAL, APA, RCL, CCL, CAVM, URBN, LITE,

Bull Flag Bounces include: AAL, CSX, DISH, ISRG, DAL, HA, SAVE,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: EXPE, JBLU, FL, SCHN, SE, CHK,

Horizontal Breakout include: ULTA, LUV, ALK,

New Highs include: NTES,


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Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 44, defensive. 

34 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and two were unchanged on Thursday.

27 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
ORLY, ULTA,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
ADSK, AVGO, CHKP, DISCA, FB, INTC, JD, PCLN, SYMC, TRIP,


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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