Tuesday, October 18, 2016

NFLX, HOG, UNH Soar...Broad Market Jumps After Earnings Reactions...

All ten sectors moved higher on TuesdayXLV, XLB and XLU were the strongest sectors while XLI was the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose 1.03 to close at 51.10.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led 2,320 to 725 on the NYSE and led 1,786 to 992 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +10
Monday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Friday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +5
Thursday – weakened, decliners led, +4
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +6


SPY up 1.33 at 213.71 on 76.8 million shares, 23% below average volume
VIX down .93 at 15.28
TLT up .43 at 132.86…on 7.1 million shares, 17% below average volume

Technical Commentary:
QQQ +0.89%, SPY +0.63%, IWM +0.57%, DIA +0.36%,

SPX/SPY opened higher after a NFLX earnings beat after the close on Monday.  VIX closed lower and did confirm Tuesday’s bounce.  Volume gained but was still slightly below average. 

The MFC green line turned up on Tuesday.  

Institutional activity suggests that last quarter’s trend on stock selectivity based on quarterly results as opposed to industry or sector rotation continues to be a primary driver of price action.

So far the real determinate to market movement this week is the institutional reaction to this week’s earnings announcements


Up trending NFLX +18.99, +19.03% beat eps 12 cents to 6 cents estimate, beat on revenue and raised Q4 guidance.

Sideways trending HOG +4.49, +9.03% rallies to resistance after a positive earnings reaction.

Sideways trending UNH +9.26, +6.90% rallies to resistance after a positive earnings reaction.

Up trending GS +3.63, +2.15% beat eps $4.88 to $3.79 estimate, beat on revenue.

Down trending JNJ -3.08, -2.60%, was down even though it beat on eps and revenue.


SPX Leaders: NFLX, HOG, UNH, NRG, FTR, CI, CMA, ANTM, CF, NEM, VRTX, ENDP, EMN, FE, ILMN, TRIP, CNC, TSS, AET, CHK, MYL, CTXS, MU, MOS, VLO, RF, ABBV, EW, STJ, EY, ADS, GS and LVLT.


After the close:
INTC -1.97, -5.22%, beat on adj. eps of .80 vs. .72 estimate, and revenue but issued flat guidance on revenue.
ISRG -17.73, -2.46%, beat on eps of 6.19 vs. 5.13 estimate and revenue, price falls after initial after-hours jump.

Earnings Announcements
Monday - BAC, HAS, NFLX, IBM, UAL
Tuesday – GS, HOG, JNJ, ISRG, INTC, LLTC,
Wednesday – HAL, MS, STI, STX, UNH, USB, AXP, URI, CTXS, EBAY, LRCX, MAT, TSCO, XLNX
Thursday – ALK, NUE, TRV, AAL, WBA, MSFT, MXIM, PYPL,
Friday – GE, HON, MCD, MCO, STI, SWN


EPS Positive Reactions

NFLX, HOG, UNH, GS, CE, DPZ, CMA, UAL, HAS, DAL, CSX, COST, RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions
JNJ, IBM, AA, FAST, ILMN, MU, PAYX, CCL

EPS Neutral Reactions
BAC, C, JPM, PNC

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: LVS, WB, AAPL, AMZN, NXPI, SWKS, ULTA, WDC, LITE, JPM, STI, ZION, MS, UAL, RCL, CCL, ETFC, FL,

Bull Flag Bounces include:  GOOG, NVDA, ADBE, ADSK, CTRP, LRCX, NCLH, QCOM, APA, CAVM, BAC, C, HA, SCHW, SOXL,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: SCHN, BAC, C, UAL, ADBE, CTRP, NCLH, SCHW, HAS, MLM, WRK, DO, AKAM, AAL, CSX, DISH, DAL, SAVE, JBLU, SE, CHK, SOXL

Horizontal Breakout include: NFLX, GS, GOOG, ILMN, CMA, CE, DPZ


New Highs include: NTES, LUV, ALK, EXPE, NFLX, DPZ, CMA


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Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 28, bullish. 

81 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

41 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 14
ADSK, ATVI, AVGO, CHKP, CTXS, EA, INCY, LVNTA, MNST, MSFT, MU, SBAC, TRIP, TXN

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0



6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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