Friday, October 21, 2016

FB, MSFT, PYPL Hit New All-time Closing High...SPY Slightly Higher on Expiration Friday...VIX Falls...

Three of ten sectors moved higher on FridayXLY, XLP and XLK were the strongest sectors while XLV was the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose .39 to close at 51.00.

For the week ended October 21 eight of ten sectors moved higher,
XLB +1.60%, XLF +1.18%, XLY +0.89%, XLRE +0.57%, XLE +0.56%, XLU +0.52%,
SPY +0.40%,
Lagging sectors XLK +0.34%, XLV +0.13%, XLP -0.27%, XLI -0.42%,

YTD 204
Leading Sectors: XLE +16.36%, XLK +10.97%, XLU +10.91%, XLB +8.38%, XLI +7.51%,
SPY +4.96%,
Lagging Sectors: XLP +3.45%, XLY +1.83%, XLF +1.55%, XLRE +0.51%, XLV -3.22%


Breadth strengthened as advancers led 1,539 to 1,469 on the NYSE and decliners led 1,498 to 1,239 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +3
Thursday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Wednesday – weakened slightly, advancers led, +7
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +10
Monday – weakened, decliners led, +3


SPY up .10 at 213.98 on 89.0 million shares, 8% below average volume
VIX down .41 at 13.34
TLT up .20 at 133.31…on 9.2 million shares, 11% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
QQQ +0.37%, SPY +0.05%, DIA -0.18%, IWM -0.05%,

SPX futures moved lower Thursday night and SPY opened lower and moved slowly higher for the rest of Friday finishing up 10 cents.   VIX closed lower and did confirm Friday’s slightly higher close.   SPY had a $1.32 moderate daily range on monthly expiration Friday.

The SPX/SPY three-month sideways trend continues with Friday’s close at the 38% level of its current range.

SPX Leaders: RAI, PYPL, TWX, VRSN, SNI, ETFC, ROK, MSFT, SYF, CCI, DISA, NFLX, MCD, MO, VIAB, MPC, EXPE, KSS, KLAC, FOXA, CBS PRGO, R and CRM

FB +2.07, +1.59 hits a new all-time closing high.

PYPL +4.06, +10.13% gaps up on positive earnings reaction and hits a new all-time closing high.
MSFT +2.41, +4.21% gaps up on positive earnings reaction and hits a new all-time closing high.


Institutional activity continues to indicate that last quarter’s trend on stock selectivity based on quarterly results as opposed to industry or sector rotation is a primary driver of price action.

So far the real determinate to market movement this week is the institutional reaction to earnings announcements

Earnings Announcements
Monday – PCAR, SONC, TMUS, V, ZION
Tuesday – MMM, AKS, AKAM, AAPL, T, BHI, CMG, EW, ESRX, FCX, GM, JBLU, JNPR, KEY, LMT, P, PNRA, SKYW, SAVE, UA, VLO, VRTX, WHR,  
Wednesday – BA, KO, CMCSA, FFIV, GD, NEM, NXPI, ORLY, LUV, STT, TSLA, WDC,
Thursday – AET, GOOGL, MO, AMZN, AMGN, BIDU, BX, CA, CRUS, CLF, COP, DOW, EXPE, LNKD, POT, TWTR, UPS, VRSN,
Friday – XOM, PSX, RCL, UBS


EPS Positive Reactions
MCD, PYPL, MSFT, MXIM, AXP, SNA, MAT, BK, STLD, WBA, ALK, URI, HAL, MS, USB, NFLX, HOG, UNH, GS, CE, DPZ, CMA, UAL, HAS, DAL, CSX, COST, RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions
MCO, EBAY, TRV, LRCX, TSCO, INTC, ISRG, ST, JNJ, IBM, AA, FAST, ILMN, MU, PAYX, CCL

EPS Neutral Reactions

AAL, NUE, XLNX, CTXS, LLTC, BAC, C, JPM, PNC


Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: HAL, NTES, ULTA, WB, AAPL, SWKS, WDC, FL, CSX, LVS, HA, DISH, STI, NXPI, LITE, DVN, RCL, APA, NFX, SE,

Bull Flag Bounces include: ETFC, AMZN, CCL,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: ETFC, QCOM, SLCA, X, AKS, ZION, C, JPM, USB, CHK, DAL, DO, RIG, ADBE, CTRP, NCLH, SCHW, ADSK, HAS, JBLU, SOXL, NVDA, CAVM, WRK

Horizontal Breakouts include: MS, MLM, WHR, UAL, STLD,

New Highs include: FB, NFLX, DPZ, SCHN, AKAM, BAC, GS, LUV, SAVE, EXPE, FSLR, ALK, DISH, CE, CMA, GOOG, AAL,


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Short-term Movers for the week:
SPX gainers:  RAI, HOG, TWX, AXP, BK, HAS, UNH, RIG, VRSN, SNI, SNA, FITB, FSLR, CMA, NEM, RF, MPC, SYF, PNC, FE, ROK, DHR, URI, MOS, CBG, EMN, KORS, FTI, ZION, CFG, COF, CBS, PRGO, UAL, MTB, MS, BAC, KEY, WHR, +4, 50
SPX losers:  SWN, AIZ, GPC, UNP, NAVI, TRV, CINF, MNK, URBN, COG, GWW, HPQ, ADS, PG, EQT, MCO, KSU, T, VZ, -4, 23

NDX gainers:  NFLX, PYPL, MAT, EXE, AKAM, DISCA, ENDP, FOXA, MXIM, VIAB, WBA, MSFT, +4, 11
NDX losers:  EBAY, INTC, ISRG, CERN, ULTA, -4, 4,

YTD: 204
SPX Leaders:  OKE, NEM, SE, SWN, XEC, RRC, PXD, EW, CXO, PVH, (321, +3 > 10p 200, +0)
SPX Losers:  PRGO, FSLR, GCI, SIG, RCL, HRB, ADS, BMY, KR, AGN,

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, NTES, LLTC, CHTR, ULTA, QCOM, NTAP, TXN, YHOO, (59, +3, >10p 38, +0)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, SRCL, ALXN, VRTX, NCLH, REGN, MYL, QVCA, LMCA, GILD

DJI Leaders:  CAT, UNH, MRK, CVX, MMM, WMT, XOM, CSCO, AAPL, JNJ, (19, -2, >10p 10, -2)
DJI Losers:  NKE, DIS, GE, BA, HD, TRV, MCD, AXP, GS, KO


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 36, bullish. 

44 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Friday.

48 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 7
DISCA, ENDP, MSFT, SBUX, SIRI, TRIP, VRSK

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
ESRX


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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