Friday, March 18, 2016

Stocks Finish Five Up Trend...VIX 2016 Low...XLV Bounces...

Seven of nine sectors moved higher on FridayXLV, XLF and XLIE were the strongest sectors while XLU was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell -0.54 to close at 41.13
                         
Breadth weakened as advancers led decliners 1.58 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.80 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, advancers led
Thursday - strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led


SPY down.25 at 204.38 after a 1.049604 dividend on 138.3 million shares, 13% above average volume
VIX down.42 at 14.02…
TNX down .32 at 18.71…
TLT up .27 at 129.06…on 8.1 million shares, 9% below average volume
XLF up .10 at 22.73…on 52.8 million shares, 24% below average volume

AAPL up .12 at 105.92 on 44.2 million shares, 18% above average volume
FB up .43 at 111.45 on 36.2 million shares, 8% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.90%, DIA +0.43%, SPY -0.12%*, QQQ -0.14%. * after a 1.049604 dividend



The broad indexes completed their fifth straight weekly higher close.

Eight sectors closed higher for the week including XLI, XLB, XLE, XL, XLF, XLY, XLU, and XLP.  Only XLV the leading sector on Friday was down for the week.

For the week 26 of 30 DJIA stocks were higher led by BA, NKE, CAT, AAPL, IBM and CVX.  JNJ, WMT, MRK and PFE were down for the week.

NDX weekly leaders included TSLA, ADBE, CTRP, NCLH, CHTR, NXPI, MAR, SWKS, VIAB, ADI, LBTYA and SRCL.  Healthcare stocks ENDP, BMRN, INCY, ALXN, MYL, ILMN and VRTX were the biggest weekly losers.


SPX weekly gainers included HOT, WMB, FDX, FCX, DVN, MJN, OI, WYNN, RRC and HAR.

The SPX made its highest close since Dec 30, and is over 5 points positive since Dec 31, 2015 for the first time this year.  The VIX made its lowest close since Aug  18, 2015 when it closed at 13.79.

NDX +10.57 on Friday was led by point leaders INTC, ADBE, ESRX, BIDU, GILD AMBGN and BIIB.  MSFT, AMZN and CMCSA were the NDX point losers.

NDX percentage gainers: WDC, BMRN, VRTX, LVNTA, ADBE, ISRG, INCY, ALL, NVDA, CTRP, TSLA, SWKS, ESRX, NXPI, YHOO and MU.

The DJIA was led by gains in GS, JPM, BA, INTC, AXP, UNH, MRK and MMM as 21 of 30 stocks moved higher.

Trade what you see, not…


Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include:  TRIP, DG, CAVM,

Bull Flag Bounces include: SCHW, TASR


Horizontal Breakout Setups include: SCHW, DVN, RRC, WMB, DO, FSLR, QRVO, GME, ATVI, PYPL, ROST, ETFC, FTI, NFLX, XOM, CAT, CNX, DIS, CLF, DD, PG

Horizontal Breakouts include: RCL, SWKS,


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Short-term Movers:
SPX gainers:  HOT, WMB, FDX, FCX, DVN, MJN, OI, WYNN, RRC, HAR, LUK, OKE, CGPX, WHR, BA, EQT, FLR, MUR, PNR, TXT, WRK, EMR, RCL, AES, ORCL, ROK, NSC, NFX, MAR, COP, HPE  6
SPX losers:  MNK, CMG, AGN, FOSL, RGO, AN, LLY, MCK, BBY, XRAY, RIG, HP  4

NDX gainers:  ULTA, TSLA, NTES, NCLH, VIAB, CHTR, CTRP, SBAC, LBTYA, SWKS, TRIP, SRCL, PCAR, ADBE, CTSH, SYM, MAR, CSX, LRCX, DISCA, NXPI, MSFT, ADI, AVGO, AAPL, PAYX, VOD, YHOO, MXIM, FISV, ATVI, ADP, BIDU, FAST, PCLN, CMCSA  4
NDX losers:  ENDP, BMRN, INCY, ALXN, MYL, ILMN, VRTX, EXPE, MDLZ, BIIB, REGN, AMZN, CELG 3



YTD:
SPX Leaders:  FCX, NEM, URBN, KORS, RRC, WYNN, SE, COG, M, EQT (300, +6, > 10p 115)
SPX Losers: WMB, MNK, ESV, MPC, ADS, RCL, MCK, AN, CSRA, BAC

NDX Leaders:  MAT, FAST, PCAR, FISV, DISCK, ROST, CHTR, AMAT, MAR, PYPL (48, +3)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, INCY, VRTX, REGN, ALXN, TRIP, BMRN, ILMN, MU, ESRX

DJI Leaders:  VZ, CAT, MMM, WMT, CVX, XOM, UNH, IBM, KO, MCD (17, +0)
DJI Losers: GS, AXP, PFE, JPM, BA, DIS, INTC, V, MSFT, DD


Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPX MFC green line is pointed up at 97. 


69 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

90 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
AMGN, BMRN, CERN, ESRX, MU,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up




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