Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Futures Open Lower, Stocks Sell off Following Chinese Export Data...Oil Falls, Bull Flags Galore...

Just two of nine sectors moved higher on TuesdayXLU, XLP and XLK were the strongest sectors while XLE was the weakest sector.  Oil futures reversed Monday’s gain and fell -1.65 to close at 36.33
                         
Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 3.09 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.47 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday – weakened, advancers led
Thursday - strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, advancers led


SPY down 2.19 at 198.40 on 123.9 million shares, 7% below average volume
VIX up 1.32 at 18.67…
TNX down .70 at 18.32…
TLT up 1.42 at 129.98…on 7.1 million shares, 24% below average volume
XLF down .36 at 21.91…on 76.9 million shares, 4% above average volume

AAPL down .84 at 101.03 on 31.5 million shares, 30% below average volume
FB up .20 at 105.93 on 25.6 million shares, 38% below average volume

Technical Commentary:
DIA -0.59%, QQQ -0.83%, SPY -1.09%, IWM -2.41%.

Futures fell overnight after Chinese economic report indicated that exports fell 25% in February.  SPY opened 1.27 lower and sold off to 198.39 where buyers stepped in around 11 am ET.  The selloff was on approximately 50% below average volume.  Buyers were in control until about 2 pm ET when sellers took over and pushed SPY back to new lows for the day.

SPY, DIA, QQQ and IWM are forming bull flag patterns.

DIA was the strongest of the broad market ETFs on the strength of buying in MSFT, NKE, MCD, HD, TRV and AXP.

MSFT bullish engulfing bounce at support in SW trend
NKE piercing line in bull flag pattern
MCD bullish engulfing bounce from support in narrow trading range, watch for breakout
HD white candle bounce inside pennant pattern, watch for breakout
TRV bullish engulfing bounce in horizontal flag, watch for breakout
AXP white candle horizontal breakout of gap resistance, trend continuaton


Small cap IWM which has been a leader over the past week and oil stocks have some of the biggest losses on Tuesday



Trade what you see, not…


Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.



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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include:  SPY, QQQ, IWM, FOSL, FCX, WMB, ESV, LNC, WRK, AAPL, AVGO, ADBE, AMZN, ATVI, BIDU, CMCSA, EA, INTC, JD, LRCX, NFLX, PCLN, PYPL, ROST, SBUX, CF, CTB GME, GPRO, GT, TASR, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLY, CAT, DD, DIS, GE, GS, JNJ, JPM, NKE, WDC, C, WFC, ETFC, MS, SCHW, CYBR, RIG, MU, NXPI, CAVM, QRVO

Bull Flag Bounces include: MNST

Horizontal Breakout Setups include:  WMT, CSCO, GLD, HD, KO, MCD, PG, PANW, UNH, XOM, XLP, XLV, CTXS, GILD, CELG, TRIP, EBAY,

Horizontal Breakouts include: XLU,


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Short-term Movers:
SPX gainers:  CHK, MUR, SWN, MRO, RIG, ESV, URBN, APA, RRC, CNX, HPE, COP, DVN, FCX, NRG, HP, EOG, OKE, URI, NUE, EXC, MOS, FLR, NOV, CNP, HOG, FE, LM, ZION  6
SPX losers:  HRB, KR, RCL, TXT, OXY, AN, MNK, DAL, V, CCL, WYNN, GRMN, GD, NKE, ZTS, UA, FTI, MS 4

NDX gainers:  TSLA, ADSK, VIAB, BBBY, WFM, SIRI, STX 3
NDX losers:  SYMC, DLTR, CTRP, ALXN, NCLH, ILMN, LBTYA, TRIP, INCY, ESRX, XLNX, ADBE, ATVI, BIDU, SBUX 4

YTD:
SPX Leaders:  NEM, URBN, KORS, FOSL, CNX, FCX, M, CTL, SE, EXC (230, -20)
SPX Losers: DVN, WMB, MPC, RCL, ESV, LNC, ADS, CBF, TXT, WRK

NDX Leaders:  MAT, FAST, PCAR, ROST, BBBY, HSIC, PYPL, QCOM, KHC, FISV   (31, -5)
NDX Losers:  INCY, VRTX, ENDP, REGN, TRIP, ALXN, MU, WDC, ESRX, ILMN

DJI Leaders:  VZ, WMT, MMM, XOM, CAT, PG, UNH, JNJ, KO, IBM (12, +0)

DJI Losers: GS, BA, AXP, INTC, JPM, PFE, V, DIS, MSFT, DD  


Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPX MFC green line is the upper zone at 95. 


13 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

75 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
COST, MNST, MSFT

Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
ALXN, BIIB, ESRX, ILMN, INCY, MU, REGN, SBUX, TRIP, VRTX

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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