Wednesday, March 16, 2016

FOMC Announcement...No Surprises...Trend Continues...

Seven of nine sectors moved higher on WednesdayXLE, XLU and XLK were the strongest sectors while XLV was the weakest sector for a second straight day.  Oil futures rose +1.88 to close at 38.60
                         
Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 4.28 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.50 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday - weakened, decliners led


SPY up 1.17 at 203.34 on 129.3 million shares, 4% above average volume
VIX down 1.85 at 14.99…
TNX down .21 at 19.38…
TLT up .38 at 128.26…on 9.7 million shares, 4% above average volume
XLF down .05 at 22.36…on 58.7 million shares, 18% below average volume

AAPL up 1.39 at 105.97 on 38.3 million shares, 1% above average volume
FB up 1.51 at 112.18 on 24.7 million shares, 28% below average volume

Technical Commentary:
QQQ +0.89%, IWM +0.71%, SPY +0.58%, DIA +0.48%.

The SPX has been trending up for over four weeks.  Big money knew the FOMC announcement would be today and still they were buyers over the past four weeks.  VIX was falling during that same time indicating fear was falling.

FOMC leaves rates unchanged, indicated they would raise only twice in 2016 rather than four times.  After a whipsaw in volatility at 2 pm ET, the prior trend continued. 


The SPX made its highest close in 2016 and highest since Dec 31, 2015.  The VIX for its part made its lowest close in 2016 and its lowest close since Dec 4, 2015.

The DJIA was led by gains in CAT, MSFT, AAPL, IBM, UTX, CVX, VZ and BA as 22 of 30 stocks moved higher.

NDX point leaders MSFT, FB, GOOG, AAPL, GILD, CHTR, CSCO, CMCSA and PCLN.

NDX percentage gainers: CHTR, CTR, ENDP, VIAB, LBTYA, DISCA, MNST, NTES, NVDA, NCLH, JD, YHOO, AKAM, SWKS, NTAP and TSLA.


Trade what you see, not…


Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include:  DG, ESV, CNX, CLF, DIS, DD, GE, JPM, RIG, PG, GME, GPRO, TASR, CAVM, MYL, ETFC,

Bull Flag Bounces include: FTI, IVZ, PXD, DHI, WMB, NFLX, XOM, CAT, TSO, BIDU


Horizontal Breakout Setups include: XLB, XLF, XLI, RRC, NRG, FCX, HES, MRO, DO, COP, FTI, IVZ, WRK, APA, RCL, FSLR, QRVO, SBUX, CMCSA, INTC, GME, EA, SWKS, ATVI, WMT, LNC, COST, AMZN, TRIP, UDR, GILD, PYPL, ROST, STX, C, WFC, SCHW, NKE, GT, BIDU,


Horizontal Breakouts include: XLE, DVN, EQT, OKE, NFX, CXO, NWSA, HAR, COG, NSC, CCL, FB, ADI


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Short-term Movers:
SPX gainers:  CPGX, APC, DVN, RRC, DG, NRG, EQT, FCX, OKE, HPE, SWN, MJN, HES, MRO, WHR, NFX, CXO, HOT, NWSA, AES, HAR, COG, DO, VTR, ESV, PSA, COP, FTI, NSC, IVZ, BXP, PXD, WY, WRK, ANTM, APA, DHI, RCL, MUR, OI, NKE, URI, EXR, WYNN, NWL, LNC, CMA, BWA, AMT, CNX, NBL, NEM, NOV, FSLR, ZION, EQIX, CCL, LM, SIG, KMI,  5
SPX losers:  MNK, FOSL, PM, BBY, AGN, CHK, BMY, AN, MCK, CF, KORS, MOS,  3

NDX gainers:  ULTA, TRIP, CTRP, EXPE, NTES, TSLA, ATVI CHTR, DLTR, JD, SYMC, SWKS, LRCX, CTSH, AAPL, AVGO, MNST, LBTYA, AMAT, PCLN, SBUX, NCLH, GOOGL, CSX, GV, NVDA, SRCL, SBAC, NXPI  4
NDX losers:  ENDP, INCY, ALXN, VRTX, BMRN, CELG, MAT 3


YTD:
SPX Leaders:  NEM, FCX, CNX, KORS, URBN, RRC, COG, CTL, KMI, SE (275, +35, > 10p 95)
SPX Losers: WMB, ESV, RCL, MPC, MNK, ADS, CBG, BAC, MS, MCK

NDX Leaders:  MAT, FAST, PCAR, PYPL, FISV, CHTR, ROST, ISRG, CA, AMAT (43, +4)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, INCY, VRTX, REGN, ALXN, MU, BMRN, WDC, ILMN, TRIP

DJI Leaders:  VZ, WMT, CAT, MMM, XOM, UNH, CVX, KO, JNJ, MCD (15, 0)
DJI Losers: GS, AXP, BA, JPM, PFE, INTC, V, DIS, DD, GE


Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPX MFC green line is pointed up at 96. 


82 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

87 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
TMUS

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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