Monday, November 18, 2013

Stocks Pull Back As DJIA Moves Above 16,000 Intra-Day For First Time Ever...

Only one of nine sectors moved higher on Monday…XLI moved higher, and XLF and XLU were the strongest sectors…while XLY was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth strengthened on the NASDAQ…advancers led decliners…1.55 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.73 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – weakened slightly, mixed
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
 
 
SPY down .63 at 179.42…volume 104.6 million shares
VIX up .91 at 13.10…
TNX down .31 at 26.78…
TLT up .63 at 105.36...
XLF down .01 at 21.12 volume 42.7 million shares
 
AAPL down 6.36 at 518.63…volume 8.7 million shares
FB down 3.18 at 45.83…volume 85.7 million shares…
 
Technical Commentary: 
DIA + 0.09%, SPY – 0.35%, IWM – 0.78%, QQQ – 0.98%.
 
Most stocks pulled back on Monday’s session to close lower, however, for the first time ever the DJIA rose above the 16,000 level in intra-day trading while the
S&P rose above the 1,800.  The DJIA did gain 14.32 to close at 15,976.02 which was a record close.
 
TSLA continued its downward trend to close the day down 13.87 or 10.24%.  FB shares dropped on Monday closing down 3.18 or 6.49% on volume of 85.9 million shares.
 
Chart Signals knows that it is important to realize that as a trader you don’t know the future and that your favorite market commentator or the television talking heads don’t know the future either, but it is the charts themselves that give, through the buying and selling actions shown, the most objective estimate of future price action.  Of course when new information becomes known that will be factored into the price action which will at times change the trend prior to a chart target.  See Chart Targets below
 
 
Continue to trade with trend of the individual stock that you are trading and be vigilant in protecting profits.  Continue to move profit protection stops according to your rules.
 
Chart Targets:
SPY = 180.99, 182.69
QQQ = 84.74, 85.52
IWM = 110.96, 112.83
 
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term SPY posture is up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,774, 1,736
SPY = 177.64, 174.76
QQQ = 83.48, 82.77, 81.37
IWM = 107.93
 
Earnings this week: KKD, JKS, TSL, ADSK, HD, CRM, GME, JCP, P, SPLK,
 
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – YOKU, SINA, NTAP, SLXP, PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN, NATI, SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA, ANR, SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL, JLL, PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX, ESI, EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
 
Negative Reactions – CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP, AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW, ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS, VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP, EW, MRK,  RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL, ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY, CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.   
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: AMGN, ATVI, BIDU, COST, DTV, INTC, ATI, C, IBM, SPLK, SSYS, UAL, YOKU,
 
Diagonal Breakout: TSL,
 
Bull Flag: ADBE, BBBY, ESRX, SBUX, STX, WDC, WYNN, FSLR, GME, SPWR,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
 
Gap Up:
 
Gap Down:
 
Bear Flag:
 
At Support: WFM, ANGI, CREE,
 
C- Pattern:
 
Moves
New Highs:
 
Gap Up:      
 
Gap Down: MSFT, NVDA,
 
H Breakout:
 
D Breakout:
 
Breakout Test:
 
Bounce: SWI,    
 
MACD Divergence Bounce:
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: AMAT, FB, TSLA, BBRY,  
 
 
______________________
 
 
16 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Monday.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: CELG, AMGN, FISV, CHTR, GMCR
 
Lagging NDX stocks included: TSLA, FB, AMAT, WFM, VRTX, ALXN, NVDA, NFLX, SHLD, LMCA
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included: XONE, YOKU, SSYS, MFRM, LCC
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: YELP, SCTY, PWRD, TWTR, ANR, P, ESI, Z, QIHU, WLT, BBRY, CNX, LNKD, JCP, KKD, CRM, FIVE, SINA, GRPN, RAX, CREE, GME, SWKS, FSLR, CIEN
 
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 62
CTSH, VOD, ROST, ADBE, SNDK, SBUX, STX, CERN, CMCSA, MSFT, XRAY, AAPL, HSIC, FISV, FOSL, INTC, INTU, LINTA, PAYX, SBAC, WDC, CHKP, DTV,  GOOG, ADP, AMZN, MAT, DISCA, CA, COST, LLTC, TXN, ADI, MCHP, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX, LBTYA, ISRG, ALXN, GILD, MYL, NVDA, PCLN, MDLZ, DLTR, MNST, SHLD, WYNN, YHOO, ATVI, QCOM, AMGN, BBBY, CHRW,  NTAP, SRCL, BIDU,  SIAL, FOXA
 
Moving Above 30 DMA =1
CELG
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 9
BIIB, BRCM, GOLD, GRMN, KLAC, PCAR, SIRI, EQIX, FOXA
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
EBAY, SPLS, AVGO, CSCO, VIAB, CTXS, AMAT, VIP, WFM, CTRX, KRFT, REGN, VRSK, LMCA, TSLA, EXPD, FAST, CHTR, VRTX, FB, MXIM, AKAM, ORLY, FFIV, SYMC, ALTR, XLNX, NUAN, GMCR
 
 
Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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