Friday, November 29, 2013

QQQ and IWM Make Another New High Close on Light Volume on Half Trading Day...AMZN, NFLX, PCLN, QCOM New High Close...

Two of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLK, XLY and XLU were the strongest sectors…while XLF was the weakest sector. 

Breadth weakened on light volumeadvancers led decliners…1.26 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.59 to 1 on the NASDAQ where advancers led decliners.

Friday – weakened, advancers led
Wednesday – unchanged, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, mixed


SPY down -.12 at 181.00…volume 55.9 million shares
VIX up .72 at 13.70…
TNX up .05 at 27.41…
TLT up .03 at 104.45...
XLF down -.08 at 21.48 volume 12 million shares, bearish engulfing

AAPL up 10.11 at 556.07…volume 11.4 million shares, three white soldiers candle
FB up .52 at 47.01…volume 23 million shares, divergence bounce to similar high

Technical Commentary: 
QQQ + 0.60%, IWM + 0.05%, SPY -0.07%, DIA -0.08%.

On Friday the QQQ reached its 200% chart target from its Nov 25 breakout.  IWM traded within 23 cents and SPY within 31 cents of their 161.8% Fib target.  Since last week’s bull flag bounce on Thursday, both the QQQ and IWM have moved up six straight trading daysTime to move stops and protect profits in the event of another bull flag pullback.

While the SPX is up for the eighth straight week it longest weekly win streak since Jan 2004 it is hardly it largest eight week gain.  On a weekly basis the SPX is up +6.85% during the past eight weeks.  Since the bull market began in March 2009 there have been ten eight-week rallies, from pullback lows, that have risen on a weekly basis between +8.14% and +28.41%, with six of the ten in double-digit returns ranging between +10.5% and +28.41%.  While this is the longest consecutive weekly rise since 2004, it is not even in the top ten largest percentage gain in eight weeks for the current bull market.

AMZN, NFLX, PCLN and QCOM each made a new high close on Friday and AAPL made its highest close in almost a year.  FB gained and GOOG pulled back slightly.

Social media stocks moved higher on Friday led by moves in YOKU, TWTR, ANGI, FB, Z, and LNKD.

Solar stock SCTY +3.21, +6.54% rose for the third straight day.


Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results.”

Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”

New short term chart targets:
Chart Targets:
SPY = 182.06, 183.02…Friday’s high 181.75
QQQ = 85.14, 85.77…touched on Friday
IWM = 114.39, 116.10…Friday’s high over 114

Short-term SPY posture is neutral.
Support Levels
ES = 1,797, 1,774
SPY = 179.93, 177.98
QQQ = 84.11
IWM = 111.62


Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – SPLK, MRVL, GMCR, JCP, LZB, JKS, BRCD, TSN, YOKU, SINA, NTAP, SLXP, PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN, NATI, SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA, ANR, SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL, JLL, PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX, ESI, EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA

Negative Reactions – ROST, GME, BBY, CPB, JEC, TSL, CRM, CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP, AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW, ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS, VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP, EW, MRK,  RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL, ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY, CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST


The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.   

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Setup Charts of Interest:
 (click image to enlarge)

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49 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: ALXN, GOLD, EBAY, SIRI, BIDU, AAPL, AMZN, VRTX, MSFT, TXN

Lagging NDX stocks included: WDC, MDLZ, MNST, BIIB, SIAL, SYMC, ALTR, WFM, FISV, SRCL

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: SCTY, SOHU, YOKU, MCP, RAX, PWRD

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: LCC

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 60
CTSH, VOD, ADBE, SBUX, MSFT, XRAY, AAPL, HSIC, FISV, INTU, LINTA, PAYX, WDC, CHKP, GOOG, ADP, AMZN, MAT, DISCA, CA, COST, LLTC, TXN, MCHP, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, GILD, MYL, PCLN, MDLZ, MNST, SHLD, YHOO,  QCOM, NTAP, SIAL, CELG, BIIB, GRMN, CERN, CMCSA, CTXS, LBTYA, GMCR, BBBY, DTV, STX,  REGN, CHTR, NVDA, WYNN, LMCA, BIDU, KLAC, PCAR, VRTX

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
ATVI, BRCM, FOSL, SIRI

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
SRCL

Staying Below 30 DMA
ADI, ISRG, NUAN, INTC, ROST, SYMC, AMGN, DLTR, GOLD, SNDK, SBAC, CHRW, EQIX, FOXA, EBAY, SPLS, AVGO, CSCO, VIAB, AMAT, VIP, WFM, CTRX, KRFT,  VRSK, TSLA, EXPD, FAST, FB, MXIM, AKAM, ORLY, FFIV, ALTR, XLNX


Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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