Tuesday, November 19, 2013

DIA, SPY Pause as BAC, C, JPM, WFC Continue to Rise...Solar Stocks Cools and 3D Drops...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday…XLE, XLF and XLV were the strongest sectors…while XLU was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth weakened on the NASDAQ…decliners led advancers…2.26 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.72 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – weakened slightly, mixed
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
 
 
SPY down .39 at 179.03…volume 93.7 million shares
VIX up .29 at 13.39…
TNX up .34 at 27.12…
TLT down .80 at 104.56...
XLF up .03 at 21.15 volume 29 million shares
 
AAPL up .92 at 519.55…volume 7.6 million shares
FB up .53 at 46.36…volume 75.5 million shares…again finds support just above 45…
 
Technical Commentary: 
DIA – 0.07%, SPY – 0.22%, QQQ – 0.29%, IWM – 0.62%.
 
The SPY, DIA and QQQ are forming potential bull flag patterns while the IWM is forming a second flag in an ascending triangle.  Both the SPY and DIA are pausing after moving up for six straight weeks.  The VIX has risen for two straight days but only to 13.39 which is still inside the range of the past one month.
 
BAC, C, JPM and WFC led financials as XLF rose 3 cents after being down just one cent on Monday. XLF has risen +3.73% or 76 cents during the past eight trading days and has led all sectors.  Money is rotating from regional banks like ZION, STI and RF into the money center banks.  In order for these two pause days to lead to a larger pull back, selling will have to appear in the financials.
 
3D printers SSYS, DDD, XONE and VJET after several weeks of gains were hit with heavy selling on Tuesday.
 
Solar stocks cooled off after positive earnings and an initial positive reaction from TSL this morning with weakness in SCTY, SPWR, JKS, TSL, JASO and FSLR
 
Traders continue to trade with trend of the individual stock that you are trading and be vigilant in protecting profits.  Continue to move profit protection stops according to your rules.  Watch for any weakness in the financials as an indication that stocks may be ready for a pull back after a six-week rally.
 
A bull flag is appearing in most sectors and is most apparent in XLK, XLP, XLU and XLY.  Ten percent of the NDX 100 stocks have fallen below their 30 DMA on Monday and Tuesday with 60% still above.
 
 
Chart Signals knows that it is important to realize that as a trader you don’t know the future and that your favorite market commentator or the television talking heads don’t know the future either, but it is the charts themselves that give, through the buying and selling actions shown, the most objective estimate of future price action.  Of course when new information becomes known that will be factored into the price action which will at times change the trend prior to a chart target.
 
Chart Targets:
SPY = 180.99, 182.69
QQQ = 84.74, 85.52
IWM = 110.96, 112.83
 
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term SPY posture is up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,774, 1,736
SPY = 177.64, 174.76
QQQ = 83.48, 82.77, 81.37
IWM = 107.93
 
Earnings this week: JKS, CRM, TSL, ADSK, BBY, KKD, HD, GME, JCP, P, SPLK,
 
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – JKS, BRCD, TSN, YOKU, SINA, NTAP, SLXP, PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN, NATI, SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA, ANR, SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL, JLL, PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX, ESI, EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
 
Negative Reactions – BBY, CPB, JEC, TSL, CRM, CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP, AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW, ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS, VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP, EW, MRK,  RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL, ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY, CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.   
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: GOOG, IBM, VZ, ATI, C, IBM, TPX,  
 
Diagonal Breakout: CMCSA,  
 
Bull Flag: ADBE, ADSK, AMZN, BBBY, ESRX, MSFT, MU, MYL, NVDA, PCLN, SHLD, SNDK, STX, TXN, WDC, YHOO, DIS, KO, MSFT, PFE, FSLR, ESI, FSLR, GME, KKD, P, RCL, SPWR, SWKS, TRIP, X,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
 
Gap Up:
 
Gap Down:
 
Bear Flag:
 
At Support: FB,  
 
C- Pattern:
 
Moves
New Highs: JPM, BAC,
 
Gap Up: UAL,      
 
Gap Down: BBY, CPB, JEC, ATVI, GRPN, ZION,
 
H Breakout: DTV, CVX, JNJ,
 
D Breakout:
 
Breakout Test:
 
Bounce: TSLA, TBT,     
 
MACD Divergence Bounce:
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: WFM, SCTY,  
 
 
______________________
 
 
26 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: TSLA, ADP, GOLD, BIIB, FB, VRTX, GILD, GRMN, CELG
 
Lagging NDX stocks included: ALTR, ATVI, GMCR, WYNN, ADSK, AVGO, FFIV, WFM, SHLD, ALXN, LMCA, CHRW
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: UAL, PWRD
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: SSYS, XONE, SCTY, SPWR, DDD, YOKU, TSL, GRPN, CRM, YNDX, SOHU, FSLR, SINA, GME, P, BX, Z, ANR
 
Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 57
CTSH, VOD, ROST, ADBE, SNDK, SBUX, CMCSA, MSFT, XRAY, AAPL, HSIC, FISV, FOSL, INTC, INTU, LINTA, PAYX, SBAC, WDC, CHKP, DTV,  GOOG, ADP, AMZN, MAT, DISCA, CA, COST, LLTC, TXN, ADI, MCHP, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX, LBTYA, ISRG, ALXN, GILD, MYL, NVDA, PCLN, MDLZ, DLTR, MNST, SHLD, YHOO,  QCOM, AMGN, BBBY, NTAP, SRCL, BIDU, SIAL, CELG
 
Moving Above 30 DMA =3
BIIB, GOLD, GRMN
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
ATVI, CERN, CHRW, STX, WYNN
 
Staying Below 30 DMA =
BRCM, KLAC, PCAR, SIRI, EQIX, FOXA, EBAY, SPLS, AVGO, CSCO, VIAB, CTXS, AMAT, VIP, WFM, CTRX, KRFT, REGN, VRSK, LMCA, TSLA, EXPD, FAST, CHTR, VRTX, FB, MXIM, AKAM, ORLY, FFIV, SYMC, ALTR, XLNX, NUAN, GMCR
 
 
Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
4-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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