Thursday, September 19, 2013

NDX Leads on Strength in AAPL, MSFT, TSLA and FB...Six Sectors Above Resistance at New Highs...

Two of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday… XLI, XLK and XLY were the strongest sectors…XLU was the weakest sector. XLB, XLE,  XLI, XLK, XLY and XLV are above horizontal resistance at new highs this week.  XLF and XLP at resistance poised to breakout.  
 
Breadth weakened…advancers led decliners…1.40 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.20 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – mixed, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday - strengthened, advancers led
 
 
SPY down .29 at 172.76…volume 146.4 million shares
VIX down .43 at 13.16…
TNX up .40 at 27.48…
TLT down .62 at 104.37...
XLF down .08 at 20.62…volume 40.3 million shares
 
AAPL up 7.62 at 472.30volume 14.4 million shares
FB up .75 at 45.98volume 63.8 million shares
 
Technical Commentary: 
DIA – 0.24%, SPY – 0.17%, IWM – 0.10%, QQQ + 0.24%.
 
QQQ finished higher today on 26.4 million shares while IWM, SPY, and DIA were slightly down for the day.  NDX rose on strength in AAPL, MSFT, TSLA and FB.  XLF was also down slightly on weakness in regional bank stocks like ZION, STI and RF but remains near its horizontal resistance of late June.
 
TSLA gapped up today up 11.70 or 7.04% breaking through its horizontal resistance of early September after forming a bull flag on 15.5 million shares in volume and closing at an all-time high.  GRPN gapped up on 47.1 million shares of volume and gained 1.03 or 8.96%.  Todays close was also an all-time high.
 
XONE bounced today and rose 3.00 or 5.85%.  Volume was 1.6 million. P closed up today gaining 1.71 or 6.67% on volume of 37.7 million closing at a new all-time high.
 
Breakout Chart Targets:
QQQ = 78.70, 79.58
IWM = 110.91
SPY = 169.93, 171.56
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,660
SPY = 167.30
 
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – ULTA, FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up. 
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: ADSK, AMAT, AMZN, BIDU, CELG, COST, DTV, FAST, FFIV, GOOG, INTC, NFLX, QCOM, STX, ALK, ANR, BAC, C, CLF, ESI, FAS, FSLR, GS, LNKD, NTES, PWRD, QIHU, SCSS, SINA, SPLK, SWI, TIF, TLT, WLT, Z,
 
Diagonal Breakout: SYMC, WDC, SSYS,
 
Bull Flag: BRCM, MYL, SHLD, SNDK, DNKN, GME, VECO,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
 
Gap Up:
 
Gap Down: 
 
Bear Flag:
 
At Support: 
 
Moves
New Highs: AKAM, FB, GILD, NTAP, ROST, WYNN, YHOO, CRM, DDD, P, RAX, RCL, SOHU, YELP, YNDX, YOKU,
 
Gap Up: AAPL, TSLA, GRPN, LVS,
 
Gap Down:   
 
H&D Breakout: MAT, PCLN, SIRI, TSLA, ANGI, DDD, SCTY,
 
Breakout Test:
 
Bounce: XONE,  
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: ZION
 
______________________
 
 
49 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday…and two were unchanged.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: TSLA, SIRI, CTRX, EQIX, YHOO, FOSL, CTXS, MAT, FB, AAPL, DISCA, DIBU, DLTR, WYNN
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  MNST, GOLD, KRFT, GMCR, SHLD, SPLS, VOD, BBBY, ALXN, ESRX, ADBE, WFM, SBUX
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: GRPN, XONE, A PWRD, DDD, YELP
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: MFRM, CLF, UCO, STI, ZION, GMCR, SCSS, HUM, JCP, CRUS
 
Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 90
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, QCOM, WYNN, DELL, NVDA, GMCR, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, VOD, SBAC, SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, NTAP, ROST, YHOO, REGN, VRSK, FOXA, ADBE, ADP, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, XLNX, TXN, AMZN, BRCM, FAST, GOOG, LINTA, SIRI, WFM, XRAY, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU, COST, FFIV, MYL, PAYX, PCAR, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CA, CERN, CHKP, DTV, HSIC, LLTC, MSFT, ORLY, SIAL, ADI, CMCSA, CTXS, MDLZ, LBTYA, MAT, MCHP, KRFT, ATVI, BBBY, SRCL, EQIX, CSCO, GOLD, NUAN, DISCA
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
FOSL
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
ESRX, VRTX, WDC, AAPL, CTRX, SYMC, ISRG, SPLS, MNST
 
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up
 

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