Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…
XLP, XLU and XLB were the strongest sectors…XLE was the weakest sector.
Breadth strengthened…
advancers led decliners…1.62 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.53 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Friday - strengthened,
advancers led
Thursday – weakened,
decliners led
Wednesday – weakened,
mixed
Tuesday – weakened,
advancers led
Monday – strengthened,
advancers led
SPY
up .38 at 169.33…volume 72.7 million shares
VIX
down .13 14.16…
TNX
down .09 at 28.98…
TLT
up .40 at 103.55...
XLF
up .05 at 20.19…volume 29.4 million shares
AAPL
down 7.79 at 464.90…volume
10.7 million shares
FB
down .44 at 44.31…volume 52.7 million shares
Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.55%, DIA +0.43%, SPY +0.22%, QQQ
+0.06%.
Broad index ETFs QQQ, IWM, SPY and DIA closed at highest
weekly close in six weeks. QQQ Is at
bull market highs with IWM and SPY just below August resistance poised to
breakout. The DIA which played catchup this week after it was announce
that BAC, HPQ and AA would be taken out of the index and GS, NKE and
V would be added after the close on Friday, September 20.
The broad indexes consolidating above, at or just below
resistance manifested through a large number
of bull flag price patterns on Friday. See out list of
Bull Flag Setups below.
Our view is that
the QQQ has shown the direction big money is going to take the market and that
the probabilities favor continued trend up.
Next the FOMC will meet
and it is widely expected that reduced asset purchases will be announced. This has been the expectation since May
22, so everyone will have to wait and see if after four months the Fed does
announce an actual reduction.
The NDX +2.70 was weighed down by AAPL, GOOG and FB while
broad strength in INTC, MSFT, REGN, AMGN, and CMCSA added lift to
the upside. In the end the
breadth of 60 advancing stocks lifted the index slightly higher on Friday.
YOKU +8.93%, led on Friday.
Breakout Chart Targets:
QQQ = 78.70, 79.58
IWM = 106.10, 107.51
SPY = 169.93, 171.56
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the
trend. As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis
is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’
crowd. The ‘smart money crowd’ is no
mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a
collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the
maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
Short-term market posture is up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,647, 1,629, 1,611
SPY = 165.15, 163.35, 161.55
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – ULTA, FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW,
ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST,
GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT,
VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN,
HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK,
SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V, FB,
BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY,
MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP,
CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI,
YHOO, C, WFC
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR,
CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA,
ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX,
EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO,
NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS,
USB, AXP, KO, MOS
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market
is trending up Chart Signals looks
for support bounce and resistance breakout entries.
When the market
is trending down Chart signals looks
for resistance pull back and support break entries.
When the market
is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals
will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs
at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance.
Technical setups for
short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls
or puts.
After earnings look for
bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative
reaction stocks.
The Market Forecast Green Line is
pointed up.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: ANGI, BAC, CRM, FSLR, RCL, SINA, IWM, UNG, VECO,
YOKU, CELG, EBAY, ESRX, FAST, FIVE, GILD, MAT, ROST, SIRI, YHOO
Diagonal Breakout: JCP, NTES, SCTY, SPY, STI, TBT, Z, ZION,
BRCM, SYMC, TSLA, WDC,
Bull Flag: FB, ALK, ANR, ATI, BBRY, C, CLF, CNX, CREE, DDD,
ESI, F, FAS, FIVE, GLW, GS, JNPR, LNKD, PWRD, QIHU, SCSS, SPLK, SWI, UAL, WLT,
YELP, YNDX, ADBE, AMZN, BIDU, COST, CTSH, GRMN, MU, NFLX, PCLN, QCOM, STX, TXN,
Potential Bullish Divergence:
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:
At Support: XONE,
Moves
New Highs: CIEN, CMG, LVS, P, RAX, YOKU, AKAM, AMGN, MYL, NTAP,
NVDA, SBUX, SHLD, WFM, WYNN, XLNX,
Gap Up: ULTA, SWY
Gap Down:
H&D Breakout: DNKN,
GME, GRPN, INTC,
Breakout Test:
Bounce: MAT, TPX,
BBBY, CMCSA, DTV, MSFT, SNDK,
MACD Divergence Bounce:
Bear Flag:
Support Break: SSYS
______________________
60 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday…and one was unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: REGN, INTC, SHLD, GOLD, BBBY,
KRFT, FFIV, AMGN, NFLX, AKAM
Lagging NDX stocks included:
VRTX, AAPL, YHOO, BIDU, MXIM, FB, COST, NUAN, SPLS, SBAC
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: YOKU, GME, CIEN, DNKN, MFRM, TSL, V,
CRUS
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: SSYS,
SCTY, WLT, SOHU, NTES, QIHU, ANR, SINA, CNX, SPLK
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 83
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX,
QCOM, WYNN, DELL, NVDA, GMCR, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, VOD, SBAC, NUAN,
SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, NTAP, ROST, YHOO, REGN, VRSK,
FOXA, ADBE, ADP, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, XLNX, TXN, AMZN,
BRCM, FAST, GOOG, LINTA, SIRI, VRTX, WFM, XRAY, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR,
BIDU, COST, FFIV, MYL, PAYX, PCAR, SBUX, STX, EQIX, AMAT, CA, CERN, CHKP, DTV,
ESRX, HSIC, LLTC, MSFT, ORLY, SIAL, ADI, CMCSA, CTXS, MDLZ, LBTYA
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
KRFT, MAT, MCHP
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
Staying Below 30 DMA
ATVI, SRCL, WDC, AAPL, GOLD, CTRX,
SYMC, FOSL, ISRG, SPLS, CSCO, BBBY, DISCA, MNST
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral, NDX = Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up
1 comment:
Dave,
Thank you! You are appreciated more than you will ever know!
Kathy :)
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