Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Fed Announcement To Maintain Bond Buying Strategy Surprises Investors And Sends Stocks Higher...SOHU Up 12.35%...ADBE Up 9.22%...GOLD Up 7.60%...

All nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday… XLU, XLB and XLI were the strongest sectors…XLV was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth strengthened… advancers led decliners…5.99 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.79 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – mixed, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday - strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, mixed
 
 
SPY up 1.98 at 173.05…volume 203.3 million shares
VIX down .94 at 13.59…
TNX down 1.45 at 27.08…
TLT up1.28 at 104.99...
XLF up .18 at 20.70…volume 51 million shares
 
AAPL up 9.36 at 464.68volume 16.2 million shares
FB up .16 at 45.23volume 79.2 million shares
 
Technical Commentary: 
DIA + 0.90%, IWM +0.95%, SPY + 1.16%, QQQ + 1.20%.
 
Today the long awaited announcement by the Fed surprised many investors with their decision to not ‘taper’ for the current time…but to maintain its massive bond-buying strategy…stunning investors and sending the stock market higher.  XLU gained 2.98%, XLB gained 2.31%.  DIA broke above horizontal resistance with a gain of 1.40 while the SPY gained 1.98 and QQQ rose .94.  Volume was heavy with many stocks being double the average daily volume.
 
Many stocks made new highs and many are at a horizontal breakout setup.  SOHU gained 8.37 or 12.35%, ADBE gapped up 4.44 or 9.22%, GOLD likewise added to gains up 5.59 or 7.60%, URE was up 4.89 or 6.99%.   
 
Breakout Chart Targets:
QQQ = 78.70, 79.58
IWM = 110.91
SPY = 169.93, 171.56
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,660
SPY = 167.30
 
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – ULTA, FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up. 
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout:  ADSK, AMZN, BBBY, BIDU, COST, DTV, FB, FFIV, MAT, PCLN, QCOM, SIRI, STX, TSLA, ALK, ANR, BAC, C, CLF, CNX, DDD, ESI, F, FAS, GLW, GRPN, GS, SWI, UAL, Z,
 
Diagonal Breakout: SYMC, WDC, ANGI, FSLR, TLT,
 
Bull Flag: ATVI, CELG, MYL, PWRD,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
 
Gap Up: 
 
Gap Down: 
 
Bear Flag:
 
At Support: 
 
Moves
New Highs: AKAM, AMGN, CTSH, GRMN, MU, ROST, SBUX, WFM, WYNN, YHOO, CRM, LVS, P, RAX, SOHU, YOKU,
 
Gap Up: ADBE,   
 
Gap Down: FIVE,  
 
H&D Breakout: GILD, GOOG, GLD, SPY, YELP, YNDX,
 
Breakout Test:
 
Bounce: AAPL, NFLX, NUAN, SCSS, SINA, SPLK, WLT, XONE,
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: ESRX,  
 
______________________
 
 
84 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday…and one was unchanged.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: ADBE, GOLD, REGN, DLTR, ADSK, CTSH, EXPD, BIIB, AMZN, PCLN, GILD, MU, EQIX, NFLX, MDLZ
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  CTRX, ESRX, SHLD, WDC,
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: SOHU, AKS, CDE, URE, TPX, CRM, UCO, SCSS, ANR, YELP, CLF, ESI, XONE, FAS, ATI, FCX, CRUS, X, GLW, CREE, SWK, SINA
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: FAZ, HUM, TBT, ZION, JCP
 
Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 8
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, QCOM, WYNN, DELL, NVDA, GMCR, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, VOD, SBAC, SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, NTAP, ROST, YHOO, REGN, VRSK, FOXA, ADBE, ADP, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, XLNX, TXN, AMZN, BRCM, FAST, GOOG, LINTA, SIRI, WFM, XRAY, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU, COST, FFIV, MYL, PAYX, PCAR, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CA, CERN, CHKP, DTV, HSIC, LLTC, MSFT, ORLY, SIAL, ADI, CMCSA, CTXS, MDLZ, LBTYA, MAT, MCHP, KRFT, ATVI, BBBY, SRCL, EQIX
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
CSCO, GOLD, NUAN, DISCA
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
ESRX, VRTX, WDC
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
AAPL, CTRX, SYMC, FOSL, ISRG, SPLS, MNST
 
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral, NDX, RUT = Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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