All nine sectors moved lower on Monday…however XLU, XLV and XLB were
the strongest sectors…XLP was the
weakest sector.
Breadth weakened… decliners led advancers…1.51 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.19 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – weakened,
decliners led
Thursday – strengthened
–advancers led
Wednesday – weakened,
mixed
Tuesday – strengthened,
advancers led
SPY down .90 at 168.01…volume 143.9 million shares
VIX up 1.14 at 16.60…
TNX down .04 at 26.15…
TLT down .16 at 106.40...
XLF down .14 at 19.91…volume 39.8 million shares
AAPL down 6.00 at 476.75…volume 9.2 million shares
FB down 1.01 at 50.23…volume 100 million shares
Technical
Commentary:
DIA – 0.79%,
SPY – 0.53%, QQQ -0.24%,
IWM + 0.03%.
Futures gapped lower on Sunday and
traded lower until just after the opening bell on Monday morning. US traders were apparently taking the Asian and
European selloff as a buying opportunity.
In the end stocks did close lower than Friday, however the SPY, DIA,
QQQ and IWM closed higher than the opened.
IWM finished 3 cents higher.
All this
as the House and Senate tangle over federal funding to avoid a partial
government shutdown, the first since 1995/1996.
How can stock rally in the face of a shutdown? Apparently institutions either don’t see a
partial shutdown or they don’t see one lasting long enough to be devastating. At least that is what a strong small cap and technology
market segment is suggesting.
FB, MNST, ADSK and AAPL led to the downside while TSLA, CMCSA, BIDU and SHLD led to the upside.
TSL +4.25%,
SOHU +4.01%, VECO +2.59%,
CMG +2.34% and CREE +1.57% continued to rise despite lower
stock prices in general.
Up or down, follow
your rules when
trading resumes on Tuesday…that’s what big money will do.
Resistance Chart Targets:
QQQ = 79.69
IWM = 107.48
SPY = 173.60
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville once
wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following
the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are
reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall
of mirrors.”
Short-term market posture
is SPY down, NDX,
QQQ neutral.
Support Levels
ES = 1,672, 1,660
SPY = 168.33, 167.08,
165.31
QQQ = 78.40, 77.67
IWM = 105.52, 104.57
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – NKE, BBBY, ULTA,
FIVE, CIEN, SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK,
ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA,
AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB,
YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES,
MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK,
SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V, FB,
BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY,
MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP,
CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI,
YHOO, C, WFC
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD,
CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR,
CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS,
DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI,
CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD,
GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
Chart Signals Strategy
Guidelines
When the market is trending
up Chart Signals looks for support
bounce and resistance breakout entries.
When the market is trending
down Chart signals looks for resistance
pull back and support break entries.
When the market is sideways
in consolidation Chart
Signals will look for support
bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance
where price action stays between support and resistance.
Technical setups for short-term option
trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles,
strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups
in negative reaction stocks.
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout:
MSFT, CREE, ESI,
Diagonal Breakout: XLNX,
ATI,
Bull Flag: ADSK, AKAM,
AMAT, AMGN, AMZN, BBBY, COST, EBAY, FAST, GOOG, GRMN, INTC, WYNN, ALK, DDD, LVS,
MCP, RCL, SPY, V, VRSN, Z,
Potential Bullish
Divergence: SYMC, TIF,
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:
At Support: SNDK, C, QIHU,
Moves
New Highs: ROST, TSLA, CMG,
SOHU, TSL,
Gap Up: CMG,
Gap Down: GS, NKE, SPLK,
H&D Breakout: CMCSA,
VECO,
Breakout Test:
Bounce:
MACD Divergence
Bounce:
Bear Flag:
Support Break: DELL, NTAP,
NUAN, ANR, CLF, F, GLW, GRPN, SCTY,
______________________
37 of 100 NDX stocks
closed higher on Monday and one was unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: ISRG, REGN, TSLA,
CMCSA, MXIM, AVGO, CHTR, BIDU, SBAC, FOXA, SHLD
Lagging NDX stocks included: CTRX, FB, BIIB, MNST, ADSK, CHRW, CA, LMCA, AAPL, MDLZ,
LINTA, SIRI
Leading stocks > +2% on Monday
included: LDK, TSL, SOHU, VECO, CMG, HLF
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: XONE, Z, GRPN, YELP, JCP, MCP, CLF, AKS,
VMW, CDE, FAS
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 72
TSLA,
GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, WYNN, NVDA, ADSK, AMGN, AVGO, CTSH, GILD, VOD,
SBAC, SHLD, AKAM, ALTR, BIIB, CELG, EXPD, MU, MXIM, ROST, YHOO, REGN, VRSK,
FOXA, ADBE, ALXN, CHRW, DLTR, INTC, INTU, KLAC, SNDK, XLNX,TXN, AMZN, FAST,
LINTA, SIRI, WFM, XRAY, LMCA, EBAY, EXPE, FISV, CHTR, BIDU, COST, MYL, PAYX,
PCAR, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CERN, LLTC, SIAL, CMCSA, MDLZ, LBTYA, MAT, MCHP, BBBY,
EQIX, DISCA, FOSL, ORLY, SPLS, SRCL, MSFT,
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
HSIC, NTAP
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
ADP, DTV
Staying Below 30 DMA
ATVI,
BRCM, CA, DELL, FFIV, GOOG,QCOM, ADI, CSCO, WDC, AAPL,CHKP, CTXS, KRFT, NUAN,
GMCR, GOLD, ESRX, VRTX, CTRX, SYMC, ISRG, MNST
Thirteen Week Intermediate
Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Down, NDX, RUT = Neutral
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