Stocks Jump on Strong Euro, Tech Stocks and Black Friday Retail Sales Expectations...

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLK, XLP and XLE were the strongest sectors.  RIMM, AAPL and tech stocks led a big rally on holiday shortened trading as XRT jumped 1.51% on view of strong Black Friday sales.

Breadth strengthened on Friday as advancers led decliners …5.11 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.22 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

SPY up 1.90 at 141.35...volume 65.4 million shares – ½ day trading

VIX -0.17 at 15.14…
TNX +0.06 at 16.93…

TLT down 12 cents at 124.21…
XLF up 19 cents at 15.84…volume 20.6 million shares

AAPL up 9.80 at 571.50…volume 9.7 million shares …

FB down 32 cents at`23.99…on volume of 29.5 million shares…

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Technical Commentary:

The SPY exploded higher retracing more than 75% of its selloff from its November 6 high.  Friday’s explosive price action is a classic example of why Chart Signals has reminded readers Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday morning to remember the old adage, “never short a dull market.”  The VIX moved down and did confirm the SPY move up.

This week’s price action is beginning to look like a V bottom pattern.

The ES closed just beyond our 1,402 price target at 1,405.50.  NQ futures closed at 2,635.75.

RIMM and MCP experienced increased volume on Friday’s shortened trading day.  RIMM shares jumped after an analyst raised its price target from 12 to 15 and optimism about the forthcoming Blackberry 10. MCP shares increased after reports of insider buying.

As stated the weight of the evidence suggests recent support is the near-term low and this bounce is likely to continue even if it does pull back.

The Euro moved up 55 pips on Thursday and closed up 92 pips at 1.2975 on Friday.   The German Ifo index of business sentiment was reported at 101.4 on Friday, above of forecasts of 99.5.

TNX, interest rates rose and TLT, bonds moved down 12 cents.  XLF was up 19 cents to 15.84, breaking above short-term resistance at 15.69.

SPY – 139.50 BO

AAPL – white spinning top, 571.95 BO setup

FB – black candle above S1, BO test

FAS – 105.51 BO  

AMZN – 238.71 BO

EXPE - flag bounce continuation, BO setup 61.24

STX – confirm bullish harami, IT support

VIAB – bounces up from DBO line

RIMM – gap up

CRUS –black candle V BO test

F – white candle, flag bounce continuation

PHM – spinning top, bounce continuation off IT support

SWK – large white candle BO setup 71.82

SWI – BO continuation

RAX – BO setup 67.18

URI – DBO continuation

YELP – bullish engulfing confirms hammer

XHB – potential hanging man

XRT – large white candle continuation

BO = breakout, DBO = diagonal breakout, CT = counter-trend, IT = intermediate term

The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up above the lower reversal zone.

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Chart Targets:

SPY = 141.68, 143.52 short-term resistance
ES = 1,402, 1,414 fib extension

EUR/USD = 1.3020 short-term resistance

Short-term support at
1.2930, 1.2833 = Euro

139.57 = SPY

83.20 = SPXL
1,386.50 = ES
2,596 = NQ

Setups:
Bull Flag:  PENN, FLO

Horizontal Setup: OSK, FB, TER

Diagonal Setup:  

C-Pattern: GOOG, WMB, FAS, IBM, STI, TPX, WDC, CRUS, TIF, SPY, URE, FCX, MOS, GS, CDE, LVS, SLB, RVBD

Confirmed MACD Divergence:  DIA, QQQ, GOOG, CTSH, IBM

Moves:

Gap Up:

Gap Down: 

 

Bounce: QCOM, RCL, JOE, ROVI, TRIP, DSW, AOL, DE, STJ

C-Pattern: JAH, YNDX, SWI

Breakout: MCO, BBBY

Continuation:  CRM, THOR, JDSU,SWK, RAX,  IBKR, BSX, NTAP, LLTC, TXN, GILD, EXPD, CIEN, TSN, AAN, VAR, SVU, CELG, CHRW, PCLN, VMW, IBM, INGR, ADSK, WHR, EXPE, LNKD, CERN, AVY, AGQ, F, DDS, SBUX, SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, V, VMED, PCAR, FL, THC, SIRO, CREE, TER, WDC, CTSH, SMH, DV, PDCO, HPQ

Pause: GOOG, SHLD, BKD, ISIL, HCA, VAR, BTU, HNT

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95 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one unchanged on Friday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: RIMM, DELL, WFM, BIDU, MRVL, FOSL, MU, EA, MSFT, INFY

Lagging NDX stocks included: ATVI, AMAT, CTXS, NFLX, VRSN

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: MCP, TSL, JDSU, FAS, RCL, JNPR, A, STI, ZION, COH, SOHU, GS, LDK, SMH, WDC

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: FAZ, NTES

Stocks to Watch on Monday…

Holding Above 30 DMA = 40
YHOO, MYL, ORLY, CERN, NFLX, RIMM, XRAY, PCLN, SBUX, QCOM, HSIC, GILD, SPLS, CSCO, NTAP, EXPE, GMCR, ISRG, VMED, ATVI, CHKP, EA, EXPD, LLTC, MXIM, PCAR, SYMC, TXN, XLNX , AMGN, BIIB, CELG, COST, DLTR, EBAY, LIFE, SIAL, AMZN, BBBY, FISV 

Moving Above 30 DMA = 18

ADBE, ADSK, ALTR, AVGO, CHRW, DELL, FFIV, FOSL, GRMN, LRCX, MAT, MRVL, MU, NWSA, ORCL, PAYX, WFM, WYNN

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
 

Staying Below 30 DMA

SIRI, KLAC, LINTA, SHLD, SRCL, FLEX, STX, CMCSA, INTU, SYMC, AKAM, AMAT, GOLD, MCHP, MSFT, NVDA, PNRA, SNDK, ADP, FAST, INTC, BIDU, CTSH, PCAR, VIAB, ALXN, ESRX, MNST, TXN, VRSN, GOOG, MYL, APOL, INFY, ORLY, VRTX, BMC, VOD, WCRX, DTV, NUAN, AAPL, BRCM, CA, CTXS, SYMC, KLAC, ROST, KRFT

Fourteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Neutral

Short Term Market Trend: Up