Thursday, November 8, 2012

AAPL Continues Fall, Euro, XLF, SPY Closes Lower...


All nine sectors moved lower on ThursdayXLU, XLF and XLI were the strongest sectors.

Breadth
strengthened on Thursday as decliners led advancers…2.71 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.81 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

SPY down -1.68 at 138.04...volume 181.4 million shares
VIX -0.59 at 18.49
TNX unchanged at 16.32…
TLT up +1.84 at 125.84…
XLF
down 13 cents at 15.48…volume 92.7 million shares

AAPL down -22.25 at 537.75volume 37.7 million shares
FB down 48 cents at`19.99…volume 34.2 million shares…

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Technical Commentary:
A falling VIX, a potential MACD bullish divergence on the SPY, a lower low on lower volume, a relatively strong XLF, XLI and XLY, strengthening breadth alert us to watch for a potential bounce in the current down trend.

The Euro traded in a range and closed down 27 pips at 1.2743 near its eight week support at 1.2750.  TNX, interest rates were unchanged and TLT, bonds jumped. 

Coal stocks ACI, BTU, JRCC held support while ANR, CNX, and WLT inched lower.

XLF was down 13 cents and was the second strongest sector.

The SPY opened higher and traded lower closing down -1.68.   The VIX moved lower and did NOT confirm the SPY move down.

ES broke its 1,390 support level and fell to 1,372 before closing at 1,375.50.  NQ broke support and closed at 2,574.

The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down forming a potential bullish divergence.

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Chart Targets:
SPY = 143.70 short-term resistance
ES =
1,430.00 short-term resistance
EUR/USD = 1.2876, 1.3020 short-term resistance

Short-term support at
1.2750, 1.2693 = Euro
138.60, 137.07 = SPY
78.47, 76.89 = SPXL
1,380, 1,368 = ES
2,583, 2,550 = NQ


Setups:
Bull Flag: VMED, LRCX, TRIP, CTRP, TXN, WYNN, CERN, NFLX, EXPD, EXPE, RIMM, CHRW, SBUX, FLT, RCL, CHL, V, BAC, F, PCAR,  LINTA, SHLD, ISRG, LLTC, PCLN, CREE, URI, GMCR, TMO, JOE, TRMB, ROVI, DWA, VAR, AAN, TER, ISIL, INGR, AVY, WHR, VMW, WDC, R, DV,

Potential MACD Divergence:  SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GOOG, CTSH, ALXN, GOLD

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12 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: QCOM, VRSN, DELL, STX, ALXN, ORLY, NVDA, ALTR, GOLD, LLTC

Lagging NDX stocks included: WFM, SNDK, AMAT, EA, MU, AAPL, SHLD, SPLS, FOSL, GMCR

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: GRPN, UAL, FAZ

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: TSL, LDK, ESI, COH, LNKD, CMG, ANF, RVBD, CRUS, LVS, VECO, GES, ANR, TPX, SLB, MCP, CLF, DECK, NKE, TBT, TIF, ZAGG, ATI, VMW, RCL, FAS, FB, HLF, GS, CRM, CROX, CHL, URE, CDE


Stocks to Watch on Friday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 25
VMED, LINTA, SHLD, ISRG, LRCX, YHOO, MYL, ORLY, PCAR, TXN, WYNN, CERN, CHRW, EXPD, EXPE, MXIM, NFLX, RIMM, GMCR, LLTC, XRAY, PCLN, SBUX, XLNX, STX

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
QCOM

Moving Below 30 DMA = 13
ADBE, AVGO, CMCSA, EA, HSIC, INTU, KLAC, MAT, MU, NWSA, SPLS, SRCL, SYMC

Staying Below 30 DMA
ADSK, AKAM, AMAT, AMGN, ATVI, COST, EBAY, FISV, FLEX, GOLD, LIFE, MCHP, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, PAYX, PNRA, SIRI, SNDK, WFM, FOSL, ADP, FAST, INTC, BIDU, GILD, EXPD, CTSH, PCAR, SIAL, VIAB, ALXN, CELG, ESRX, MNST, TXN, VRSN, BIIB, GOOG, MYL, CHKP,  APOL, INFY, ORLY, VRTX, AMZN, BMC, FFIV, GRMN, VOD, WCRX, DLTR, DTV, NUAN, AAPL, BRCM, CA, NTAP, CTXS, SYMC, CSCO, ALTR, BBBY, KLAC, ROST, DELL, MRVL, KRFT


Twelve Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

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