Tuesday, November 20, 2012

SPY, AAPL Hold S1...XLF, TNX Rise as Bonds Fall...Housing Stocks Rally...



Six of nine sectors moved higher on TuesdayXLV, XLF and XLY were the strongest sectors. 

Breadth
weakened on Tuesday as advancers led decliners1.26 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led advancers 1.10 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

SPY up 6 cents at 139.19...volume down to 117.4 million shares
VIX -0.16 at 15.08
TNX +0.45 at 16.56…
TLT down -1.26 at 124.40…
XLF
up 8 cents at 15.65…volume 40.5 million shares

AAPL down -4.82 at 560.91volume 22.9 million shares
FB up 18 cents at`23.10…volume 46.5 million shares…

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Technical Commentary:
The SPY paused on Tuesday following large gains on Monday.  Tuesday’s pullback stayed above the S1 area of Monday’s range including its gap, indicating buyers are willing to buy pause pullbacks.  The VIX moved down and did confirm the SPY move up.

The ES and NQ futures also bounced off of S1 and rallied.

When the SPY turned negative just after 1 pm the Euro, TNX and XLF stayed relatively strong and TLT and VIX remained relatively weak suggesting the pullback would be temporary.  The SPY bounced more than $1 from its low closing up six cents for the day.

Volume was lighter across most issues and traders look to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Weight of the evidence suggests recent support is the near-term low and this bounce is likely to continue.

The Euro closed up 4 pips at 1.2812.  TNX, interest rates rose and TLT, bonds moved down -1.26 and confirmed its shooting star candle.

XLF was up 8 cents BO setup.

SPY – S1 holds, BO setup
AAPL S1 holds, black candle
FB – S1 holds, BO setup
FAS – gap holds support, BO setup
AMZN - divergence bounce continuation
EXPE - flag bounce continuation, nearing BO setup
STX – spinning top, lower low, IT support
VIAB – black candle, holds DBO test
RIMM – black candle gap
SWK – bounce continuation nearing BO setup
URI – doji, DBO setup
CRUS – S1 holds
YELP – black candle gap
SWI – bounce continuation
RAX – divergence bounce continuation
PHM - bounce continuation off IT support
F – doji, flag bounce continuation
XHB - bounce continuation off IT support


XRT – holds horizontal BO test

BO = breakout, DBO = diagonal breakout, CT = counter-trend, IT = intermediate term

The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up in the lower reversal zone.

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Chart Targets:
SPY = 139.37, 140.39 short-term resistance
ES =
1,386, 1,393 short-term resistance
EUR/USD = 1.2876, 1.3020 short-term resistance

Short-term support at
1.2659 = Euro
134.70 = SPY
73.26 = SPXL
1,342.50 = ES
2,513 = NQ


Setups:
Bull Flag:  QCOM, RCL, AOL, EXPD, JOE, ROVI, CIEN, JDSU, HNT, TRIP, PENN, FLO

Diagonal Setup:  MCO

Confirmed MACD Divergence:  DIA, QQQ, GOOG, CTSH, IBM


Moves:
Gap Up: DSW,

Gap Down: BBY, HPQ, PDCO
 
Bounce: TXN, CELG, CHRW

Continuation: WHR, PCLN, EXPE, GILD, TSN, LNKD, CERN, AVY, AGQ, F, DDS, SBUX, AAN, SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GOOG, V, VMED, PCAR, FL, THC, FB, SHLD, SIRO, BKD

Pause: ISIL, HCA, CREE, LLTC, TER, NTAP, VAR, WDC, BTU, CTSH, IBM, INGR, SMH, DV, VMW, ADSK

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 55 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one unchanged on Tuesday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: SHLD, BIIB, DLTR, SIRI, CELG, WFM, GMCR, LIFE, AMZN, BIDU

Lagging NDX stocks included: NUAN, APOL, SPLS, INTC, WCRX, INFY, STX, LINTA, CTXS, DELL

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: GRPN, MCP, ZAGG, MOS, AKS

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: CLF, TSL, LDK, ANR, UCO, ESI, A, SINA, WDC, CROX, VECO


Stocks to Watch on Wednesday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 29
YHOO, MYL, ORLY, CERN, NFLX, RIMM, XRAY, PCLN, SBUX, QCOM, HSIC, GILD,
SPLS, CSCO, NTAP, EXPE, GMCR, ISRG, VMED, ATVI, CHKP, EA, EXPD, LLTC, MXIM, PCAR, SYMC, TXN, XLNX   

Moving Above 30 DMA = 8
AMGN, BIIB, CELG, COST, DLTR, EBAY, LIFE, SIAL

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
 

Staying Below 30 DMA
DELL, LRCX, CHRW, MU, SIRI, KLAC, LINTA, SHLD, SRCL, FLEX, STX, WYNN, ADBE, AVGO, CMCSA, INTU, MAT, NWSA, SYMC, ADSK, AKAM, AMAT, FISV, GOLD, MCHP, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, PAYX, PNRA, SNDK, WFM, FOSL, ADP, FAST, INTC, BIDU, CTSH, PCAR, VIAB, ALXN, ESRX, MNST, TXN, VRSN, GOOG, MYL, APOL, INFY, ORLY, VRTX, AMZN, BMC, FFIV, GRMN, VOD, WCRX, DTV, NUAN, AAPL, BRCM, CA, CTXS, SYMC, ALTR, BBBY, KLAC, ROST, MRVL, KRFT


Six Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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