Monday, January 3, 2011

SPX Highest Close since Sep 3, 2008...

Read the January 1 Post and send your email, if you have not yet taken the first simple step to making 2011 your best year yet!  Don’t be left out

The SPX closed up at 1,271.89, up +14.25 or +1.13%.  It is now just 10 points away from its 1,281 December breakout price targetThe broad indexes all exploded to the upside on a wide range day with increased volume indicating that institutions were back from the holidays.

All four broad indexes and the TRAN all made new high close.  Both the INDU and TRAN made a new high close confirming the primary uptrend under Dow Theory.

Today was the first trading day of the third year of the Presidential Term Cycle which has the largest average annual gain of the four years.  Since 1945 the third year of the PTC produced a positive gain 100% of the time.
(click image to enlarge)

Breadth strengthened on Monday as advancers led decliners 2.85 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.15 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange       NYSE          NASDAQ
Advancers      2,256              2,059
Decliners           789                 652
(click image to enlarge)
Index Direction     Confirmation
VIX      Down            Yes – SPX
SOX    Up                 Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks > 1% on Monday included ARUN, RVBD, BAC, FAS, LDK, UAL, UNG, CMG, CLF, GMCR, PCX, VMW, ATI, ZION, SINA, NETL,AMD, CRM, INFA, CRUS, URE, X, GS, SKX, SNDK, F, STI, JEC, DOW, HANS, FWLT, CAKE, CREE, WLT, BYI, AKS, DECK, WHR, ESI, SWK, NYX, BA, SWN, AIV, VECO, NTRI, NDAQ, HOLX, TSL, SPG, NTES, TBT, PNC, PCP, UNP, DLR, A, AMX, GR, LXK

Losing stocks < -1% included FAZ, IPI, ATW, MA, HAS 

Interest rates rose on Monday and bonds moved lower.  The Euro moved down 14 pips to 1.3360 at 5 pm ET. 

The SOX rose +3.23, closing at 415.05 on Monday and the VIX moved lower -0.14 and closed at 17.61.

All nine sectors moved higher on Monday with Financials XLF +2.19% and Consumer Discretionary XLY +1.18% leading all sectors. 

Moves on Monday
Continuation –WLT, AGU, MOS SPG, BYI, URE, CF, GME, FAS, FLS, FCX, NUE, STLD, A, DHR
Resistance Breakout – CLF, WYNN, AMD, X, AIV, DOW
Bull Flag Bounce – WFMI, WYNN, AMD, ATI, NDAQ, F, SINA, CLF, ILMN, NTAP, ZION, STI, WFC, BAC, XLF, VMW, SNDK, GS, SWK, NETL, USD, CRUS, UNP, AKS, GR, FFIV, AMZN, CAT, DE, GOOG, ACN, JEC
MACD Divergence Bounce
Support Bounce – CMG, TSL, JASO, RMBS
Bear Flag Break – TLT
Break of Support –

Setup Charts to Watch
Bull Flag Setups – AZO, IPI, GES, ICE, LVS, NTRI, ATW, DECK, HSY
Horizontal Breakout – C, UNG, X, PNC, NYX, WHR, SLB
MACD Divergence – CREE, CAKE, NFLX, CSTR, AKAM, BIDU, LDK
Bear Flag Setups – HAS, V, SKX
Horizontal Support Breakout – TBT

Continue to trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.

SPX
Resistance: 1,281
Support: 1,256, 1, 241, 1,220

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.  Monday was an entry signal for many stocks.

Enter bearish trades on a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.


Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch.  Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +7.01large white in bull flag bounce and breakout, new high
AMZN +4.22white candle bull flag bounce
NFLX +2.71 piercing line at support and MACD bullish divergence
QCOM +0.69spinning top in bull flag bounce
GOOG +10.38white candle in bull flag bounce
BIDU +3.20white candle bounce and MACD bullish divergence

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include WYNN, NTAP, ISRG, ESRX, PCLN, SBUX, BIDU, FFIV, MU, EBAY, CTRP, CTSH, ADSK, SNDK and VRTX.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: LRCX, NIHD, EXPE, URBN, INTC, VMED, CTXS, STX, FLIR, VOD and MRVL.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA

SINA, CAM, WLT, SLB, NDAQ, USD, DECK, GR, RVBD, BYI, CAT, X, CLF, INFA, VMW, SNDK, CRUS, FCX, FDX, AKS, A, AMD, DHR, DOW, FLS, GME, ICE, PNC, UCO, DE, FAS, JEC, STI, SWK, WHR, ZION, ACN, BAC, NYX, ESI, IPI, NTRI, ATI, CF, AIV, GS, URE, AGU, MOS, POT, UNP, BA, SPG, RMBS, SWN, DLR, UNG, AMX, TSL
Moving Above 30 DMA = 9
ARUN, CHL, CREE, GMCR, HANS, LDK, NETL, PCP, TBT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
ATW, GES, HSY, TLT
Staying Below 30 DMA
HAS, HLF, CRM, MHS, CAKE, TIE, MA, SKX, V, CSTR, VECO, CMG, SOHU, MCD, LVS, UAL, FAZ, NTES, LXK

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dave,
with SPX @ near the short term target of 1281 resistance, doesn't 1256 become a potential support area?(you have it as resistance) and in the unlikely event that The index rips through 1281, where would you expect next key resistance level? Thanks for all you do to remove the noise. It feels like it's going to be a very good year.
Cheers

Gary said...

Dave,

What a great way to kick off the New Year! Just curious why you don't trade (list) gold/oil stocks? The fourth quarter provided some nice gains in RIG, OXY, HAL, ABX and AEM to name a few.

Thanks,

Gary

Dave Johnson said...

Gary,

Do you mean why I don't in addtion to my watchlist stocks FCX, ATW, SWN, UCO, SLB, WLT (I know its coal but it is energy and did go up in the 4th Qtr) and my periodic mention of XLE?

That's six symbols not counting XLE one more than your five. So I'm not 100% sure what you're asking. Let me know?

Have a great trading day today!

Dave