Friday, January 28, 2011

SPX Finds Sellers after Touching 1,300...

The SPX formed a large bearish engulfing that engulfed the bodies of the prior 10 days and closed -23.20 at 1,276.34 on Friday.

SPX bearish engulfing
INDU bearish engulfing
COMPQ bearish engulfing
RUT bearish engulfing


Breadth weakened on Friday as decliners led advancers 5.17 to 1 on the NYSE and 5.12 to 1 on the NASDAQ

Exchange     NYSE       NASDAQ
Advancers        492            437
Decliners       2,547         2,241

Index     Chg.     Close     Direction Confirmation
VIX        +3.89      20.04         Up            Yes – SPX
SOX     -12.67    438.61        Down       Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks > +0% on Friday included UCO, FAZ, SLW, PCX, CRM, RVBD, MOS, SOHU, SLB, TLT, CSTR, ATW, CF, SWK, CAM, POT

Losing stocks < -1.7% included F, LCC, ESI, FAS, LDK, TSL, SWKS, AKS, X, JEC, UALO, FDX, FWLT, ARUN, A, VECO, URE, LXK, HUM, AIV, IPI, NVDA, DECK, SINA, NDAQ, LVS, DISH, GES, NYX, TIE, CMG, CRUS, GMCR, HLF, PNC, CLF, JNPR, PCP, MHS, DE, SMH, SKX, NETL, UNP, ATI, BA, MCP, HAS, STI, MA, CREE

Positives – NFLX, long and intermediate term trends up

Negatives – SPX, VIX, NDX, SOX, RUT, TRAN, AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN, breadth weakened, broad sector weakness, Euro

Interest rates fell on Friday and bond ETF TLT closed up 48 cents. The Euro moved down 127 pips to 1.3608 at 5 pm ET.

All nine sectors fell on Friday with Consumer Staples XLP -0.96% the strongest and Consumer Discretionary XLY -3.26% the weakest. Financials XLF -1.74% was the second strongest sector.

Markets sold off broadly on Friday following negative reactions to AMZN and F earnings. Only NFLX and VRSN rose in the NDX. More stocks are now trading below, 55, their 30 DMA in the NDX. Just 45 stocks still above their 30 DMA. We hope you moved your stops up and took profits according to your rules as we have guided you over the last two weeks.

Earnings – continue to watch earnings releases this next week

SPX
Resistance: 1,281, 1,300
Support: 1,271, 1,256, 1,241
The short term 3 day trend is down.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.

Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.

AAPL -7.11 – bearish engulfing
AMZN -13.31 – gap down spinning top following earnings
NFLX +7.11 – large white candle following earnings gap up
QCOM -1.16 – black spinning top following earnings gap up
GOOG -15.80 – bearish engulfing
BIDU +1.10 – bearish engulfing, earnings Monday after the close

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include NFLX, VRSN, FLIR, ATVI, GENZ, CERN, HSIC and AKAM.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: SNDK, AMZN, CELG, CTRP, MRVL, EXPD, LRCX, BRCM, CEPH, BBBY, ADBE, SBUX, FLEX, MSFT and FAST.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
SINA, NDAQ, SMH, FWLT, PCX, CLF, CRUS, HOLX, DE, FAS, GLW, JEC, ACN, NYX, ATI, URE, DISH, POT, BA, SWN, TSL, DLR, HANS, HUM, LDK, NTES, CAM, SLB, TIE, SKX, MA, SPG, ESI, STI, CAT, DOW, MOS, NETL, SOHU, SWKS, ATW, SWK, TBT, UAL, WHR
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 21
A, AGU, AIV, AKS, CMG, F, FDX, GMCR, ICE, IPI, JNPR, LVS, LXK, MHS, PCP, PNC, SNDK, UNP, VECO, WLT, X
Staying Below 30 DMA
CF, DHR, HSY, UNG, TLT, V, BAC, CHL, MCP, ZION, ARUN, CRM, RVBD, UCO, VMW, FCX, GS, DECK, AMD, HLF, CREE, GME, SLW, GES, HAS, CSTR, MCD, FAZ

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Down

4 comments:

Judy said...

Good night DAVE! Great job reporting the chart activity in the markets this week. It sure helps me to see it better. Thanks very much. Judy

Anonymous said...

Sorry I'm late for Fri a.m.'s request; The best thing I did this week, was to "Honour Thy Stops" on my downside trades, i.e. Friday paid for my rules & my patience!
#2) Keeping my trade journal updated at all times now; (funny, how "expectancy" really does workout...)
And 3) Need much, much, much help further developing my exits & stop adj rules...
Thank you for your patience & sharing your expertice!!
SL of Nashville

Anonymous said...

...And I just finished, the rest of Thurs nite's ATA-TR, on the explaination about "The Art of Profit Management", on MOS, (@ the 1:20min mark);
Excellent, Sir! Thank you!
That gives me a starting spot to begin to define my "subjective conclusion" on how/where to raise my stops to...
SLoN

Anonymous said...

Hi Dave,
I have been meaning to comment on how much I really appreciate the blog. As a person that has a fairly demanding day and sometimes night job, this really helps me focus on key items and things I need to have reviewed for the day. I have kept paring down my watch list to make sure that I can do it "everyday". One of the biggest problems in the begining has been my desire to watch almost everything for fear of missing the one thing. With your guidance, I am now keeping myself focused on my watch list. I save the more extensive review for the weekends when I have more time. Again thanks! GC Dallas