Monday, June 28, 2010

SPX Trades in Narrow Range...Holds Support...

DJIA             10,138.52   -5.29 -0.05%
SP500             1,074.57   -2.19 -0.20%
COMPQ          2,220.65   -2.83 -0.13%
Russell 2000      641.54   -3.57 -0.55%

Exchange     NYSE    NASD
Advancing     1,428    1,103
Declining       1,635    1,579


Oil           $78.25   -0.61
Gold   $1,238.60 -17.60
SOX        354.11  +2.20
VIX           29.00  +0.47

Index    Direction   Confirmation
VIX        Up              Yes – SPX
SOX      Up               No – COMPQ

The SPX formed a spinning top for the second straight trading day.  Monday's narrow trading range, 11.15, inside day candle did not confirm Friday's bullish harami.  Support held the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the market remained in balance at support. The VIX moved higher confirming the modest move down in the SPX and the breadth weakened as NYSE advancers fell to 1,428 from 2,228 on Friday.

Bull Flag List
FFIV, ABC, CRUS, ILMN, NETL and NYX gave entry signals on Monday.  HAS and BA held its bounce.

Flag Setups - ALK, HSY, SKX, AZO, NTAP, UNP, LCC, UAUA, CAL, VECO, AKAM, UCO, SNDK, CAT, UNG, CRM, ICE, NFLX, TIE, SBUX, AAP, GMCR, SWN, VMW, DLR, CMG, BIDU, DECK

Remember the entry on a flag is a break above the high of the low day, so watch for a potential entry signal on Tuesday.


Guidance:
The SPX held support at its 61.8% Fib level from its June 8 low. The inside day still gives an edge to the upside as we look for confirmation of Friday's bullish harmi.  However the failure to make a higher high on Monday puts us on alert for a break of support.  The unemployment report comes on Friday, if Monday is any indication, traders may be unwilling to move prices higher until the report is out. 
Tighten up stops to protect profits on your short term trades.

Support held on Monday, look for a potential break above the high of the low day on Tuesday.  If support breaks trade the short term down trend.

Trade strong stocks up.
Trade weak stocks down.

The VIX rose +0.47 and closed at 29.00. Volatility stayed above the important 25 level on Monday.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The six-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +1.60
QCOM -0.53
GOOG -0.60
BIDU -1.66
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: CMCSA, FLIR, HSIC, RYAAY, APOL, HANS, INTC, STX, RIMM, LRCX, CSCO, MCHP, ILMN, LBTYA and MXIM.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: GRMN, WYNN, ADBE, JOYG, LINTA, SHLD, AMZN, FWLT, ADSK, BIDU, PCLN, WCRX, FLEX, TEVA and GILD.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, NFLX, SNDK, CMG, VMW, TIE, DECK, DLR, SWN, UNG, CRM, CHL, LVS, CRUS, AMX, CLF, HAS, HLF, FFIV, NTRI, GMCR, BA, CAT, DE, NETL, USO, V, MA, HANS, UCO, ACN, AIV, NYX, TSL, UNP, VECO
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
GR, HSY
Moving Below 30 DMA = 8
BUCY, FCX, GS, ICE, PCLN, SPG, URE, ZION
Staying Below 30 DMA
FAZ, UAUA, A, AMD, MCD, LXK, ATI, CAM, DHR, DOW, MHS, PCP, USD, WHR, WLT, CREE, PNC, POT, WFMI, WMT, SWK, CSTR, ESI, BYI, STI, JEC, GME, FAS, FLS, PCP, ATW, BAC, GES, X, AGU, IPI, MOS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Dave, I notice the NYSE advancing and declining numbers are different than on the Investools Market Commentary June 28. Looks like your numbers are a little stronger proportionately - wondering why the numbers are different. Thanks for writing this daily blog, I find them very helpful.