Friday, June 4, 2010

Futures Down As Jobs Report Less Than Expected...

Payrolls expand by 431,000 versus 540,000 estimate with 20,000 jobs from the private sector and 411,000 from temporary Census jobs.  Unemployment rate drops to 9.7% versus 9.8% estimate.  It was reported that the rate drop was due to 322,000 people dropping out of the labor force.

BMO – ES -23.00 and NQ -42.00 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. In pre-market trading AAPL is -4.74, AMZN -2.66, GOOG -8.60, BIDU -1.98, INTC is down 43 cents, BAC is down 35 cents and GS -1.74.

UNG is down only 4 cents in pre-market trading.

Market action factors in everything. As the information regarding employment came into the market traders sold and prices have dropped. The key question to ask when trading opens this morning will be has the pre-market trading already adjusted prices adequately?


If the new price is right for the news, then support will likely hold as lower prices will likely attract buyers. If the pre-market adjustment is not enough sellers will out weigh buyers and prices will likely fall further.

You should follow your rules this morning and sell when you are supposed to sell and buy when you are supposed to buy. This too will pass within a day or two and if recent support holds, expect the current trend to continue.

Look to leading stocks like AAPL, AKAM, BIDU, NFLX , SNDK, VMW and CMG and stronger stocks like CRM, DE, HAS, HLF, ICE, LVS, OSTK, SWN, UAUA, UNG and WFMI as to whether they stay above recent support or notTheir strength will let you know if buyers have completely given up and sellers have taken over or if buyers are still willing to buy at the right price.

Bonds are up and TLT is up $1.92 in pre-market trading.


Trading Down: PCLN, NFLX, WLT, CRM CLF, UYG, DECK, FCX, MA, X, GS, POT, BUCY, URE, CAT, SNDK, FAS, V, ATI, ATW, SPG, DE, CAM, CREE, ICE, SWN, PNC, MCD, FLS, BA, MOS, USD, JEC, USO, ZION, AGU, UNP, MHS, TSL, HAS, WFC, DOW, STI, WFMI, LVS, AKS, WMT, UAUA, CHL, BAC, AMD

Trading Up: FAZ

The short term trend is neutral. The intermediate term trend is neutral and long term trend is up.


Trade those charts that meet your rules in the direction of the trend on that chart.

The Euro is down 122 pips in overnight trading and has fallen to new lows.

SPY is is down $2.23 and XLF is down 30 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

SPX
Support =  1,070, 1,055, 1,044
Resistance = 1,089, 1,103, 1,107

At the Open on Friday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FAS –
TLT -
AKS -
X -
UAUA -
CMG -
VMW -
ZION -
STI -
PNC -
CREE -
DE -
BIDU -
AKAM -
SNDK -
NFLX -
DTV -
HAS -
NTRI -
OSTK -
EXBD -
WFMI -
PCLN -
ILMN –
AAPL –
ORLY -
AAP -
WHR –
DHR –
DECK –
CLF –
DOW –
BBY –
MA -
V –
CAT –
PCP –
AMD –
UNP –
FCX –
GMCR –

3 comments:

Scott Avery said...

Great. Very helpful about where the futures are right now pre market and if they have adjusted adequately enough or need to adjust more once the cash market opens. That makes so much sense and helps me really become very clear and methodical this morning. thank you Dave......

Rob said...

Dave,

Your commentary is always top notch and gets right to the point. Well done!

Mike F said...

I used to be freaked out about moves like today’s. In fact, a co-worker came into my office today in a panic about the drop. I see that it is moving back down to support, thinking of some potential great buying opportunities (or shorts if support breaks). Panic will get you no-where and from what Dave has taught, I can now react in an informed, strategic manner trading what the chart is telling me. I’ve never been so calm during a 3% + single day drop in the markets. Thanks Dave.