Friday, January 15, 2010

SPX Pulls Back From Resistance...Holds at Support

You might remember when I shared a link on Susan Boyle…well have you heard of Sundiata Gaines? Click here to see this extraordinary performance http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMWO7t0b7d8 Here’s the rest of the story…At the time this shot was made, Gaines had been in the NBA 10 days…had played in four prior games for a total of 38 minutes and scored only 12 points, had taken only four 3-point shots and missed all four. This was his fifth game in which he played 9 minutes and scored 9 points including this game winner. Yes, people can accomplish something they have never done before! DJIA 10,609.65 -100.90 -0.94% SP500 1,136.03 -12.43 -1.08% COMPQ 2,287.99 -28.75 -1.24% Russell 2000 637.96 - 8.47 -1.31% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 939 716 Declining 2,119 1,999 Oil $78.00 -1.39 Gold $1,130.10 -12.50 SOX 344.67 -12.29 VIX 17.91 +0.28 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLP -0.48%…XLU -0.64%...XLV -0.68% Weakest Sectors: XLF -2.03%...XLK -1.39%...XLI -1.29% All nine sectors moved lower on Friday as selling was broad. Consumer Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, Materials, Energy and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX -1.08%. SPX Chart Signals Target: 1,234 end of January. This is not a subjective forecast; rather it is the chart target price and time based on the mid July breakout at 950. After seeing the early market reaction to the earnings announcements on AA, INTC and JPM, we conclude that unless stocks rise in reaction to up coming earnings from AXP, BAC, IBM, GOOG the January target date will NOT be achieved. This appears similar to the 1,075 price target for mid-August that was not achieved until mid-September. Stay tuned for earnings reactions next week... Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low 1,155 = chart target Key Support Levels 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target Monday is a holiday and markets will be closed. On Friday the broad indexes pulled back from resistance on above average volume, though there was a late rally that created a lower shadown on many candles. As stated above a major portion of the sell off seemed in reaction to earnings on INTC and JPM. In both cases sellers seemed to find a reason to sell even though the earnings numbers were better than expected. When the markets open on Tuesday, earnings will be the key factor for market direction next week. HDB released positive earnings and look for movement to the upside on Tuesday. Tuesday Key Earning to Watch: C, CREE, CSX, FAST, IBM Wednesday Key Earnings to Watch: AMR, BAC, COH, EBAY, LOGI, MS, NTRS, STX, SBUX, STT, USB, WFC, XLNX Reactions to earnings from financial stocks C, BAC, MS, NTRS, STT, USB and WFC will be important and hold the key to whether the SPX can move above this past week’s high. Guidance: Earnings reaction is more important in the short term than the current technicals on the chart. Follow your trading strategies as a stock moves into its earnings release. Watch for potential support bounce or support break entry opportunities. Stay with your up trending positions. Continue to raise your stops. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -3.50 QCOM +0.16 GOOG -9.85 BIDU +3.45 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: CHKP, BIDU, SHLD, SPLS, HOLX, SYMC, CTXS, QCOM, ATVI, APOL, ISRG, CHRW, AMGN, GILD, COST, PCLN, ILMN, ADBE, LOGI, AMZN, GRMN, HANS, SIAL, CMCSA and MSFT. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA MA, DLB, DE, ALGT, GR, SYNA, PCP, TDG, X, UAUA, WHR, URE, DHR, CBST, SNDK, AMED, CAM, GMCR, HANS, SWN, ESI, JEC, VAR, UYG, MOS, BUCY, ACN, DECK, DOW, FAS, USO, WFC, ATW, BA, BAC, BYI, CAT, CEDC, CHL, FCX, HEAT, UNP, ZION, FLS, FUQI, HLF, K, MHS, MCD, UNG Moving Above 30 DMA = 0 Moving Below 30 DMA = 11 BKC, ICE, WAB, WMT, USD, PWRD, IPI, GS, AGU, CREE, WLT Staying Below 30 DMA AMD, AMX, CGA, GES, MON, POT, TSL, BDX, HDB, MYGN, WCG, SPG, VPRT, GME, MELI, PCLN, FAZ, NFLX Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

6 comments:

Brian McAllister said...

Wow, what a shot. And from a rookie! Any of us can do that, in trading that is, as long as we have rules and practice, practice, practice! Thanks Dave and have a great weekend.

Brian

Brian McAllister said...

Dave,

What do you make of Friday's pullback in light of Tuesday's pullback to approximately the same closing level? It seems like maybe we are beginning to establish a sideways range on the SPX between 1133-ish and 1145-ish, similar to the way we established a range from mid-November to mid-December, although obviously tighter. If it breaks below 1133 however, it looks like it's probably going to somewhere around 1115-1125 next. Am I seeing that correctly?

Thanks for all your teaching.

Brian

Anonymous said...

Extraordinary Dave!
Wow-It just goes to show how remarkable the human spirit can be--Magic... Yeah....

Laney
PS
Thank you for sharing this amazing clip!!!!

Anonymous said...

This is another example of how beginners can achieve great results through focus, practice & believing in your potential!

All the info you post daily certainly helps us to look at market action objectively....thanks so much for all you do! Awesome!!

SC Dave said...

Dave,
I heard a rumor that not only can teach with the best, pick stocks with the best , but that You could also shoot three's with the best. There is nothing like focus to pick and take a winner. Not only did Sundiata know where the target was, when he received the signal, he picked the right option and focused on his goal which was to take the maximum profit and rip the heart out of the one on the side of the court (trade).
For a team to prosper, just like in trading they must forgive those who wrong them (usually ourselves), learn from the past , and when the signal is given take the shot and win. I know it is your prayer that we all succeed. Because of your dedication to us we will reach our goal and win !


Thanks for Giving Us Hope,
Your Friend Dave Lewis

Unknown said...

Loved the video clip Dave! Shows that thru effort, focus and discipline the results can be life altering. It is wonderful to see such a success story for Sundiata!! Thanks for sharing with us! Very motivational!

Mishel