Tuesday, January 12, 2010

SPX Follows AA Lower After Lower Than Expected Earnings...

DJIA 10,627.26 - 36.73 -0.34% SP500 1,136.22 -10.76 -0.94% COMPQ 2,300.05 -30.10 -1.30% Russell 2000 635.50 - 8.49 -1.32% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 857 763 Declining 2,196 1,940 Oil $81.48 -1.04 Gold $1,128.90 -21.80 SOX 353.45 -13.17 VIX 18.25 +0.70 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Tuesday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLP +0.56%…XLU -0.42%...XLV -0.72% Weakest Sectors: XLB -1.90%...XLE -1.44%...XLF -1.44% Just one of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Consumer Staples, Utilities, Healthcare and Industrials were stronger than the SPX -0.94%. SPX Chart Signals Target: 1,234 end of January. This is not a subjective forecast; rather it is the chart target price and time based on the mid July breakout at 950. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low 1,155 = chart target Key Support Levels 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target AA -1.93 or -11.06%, reported earnings below estimates after the close on Monday and provided the catalyst for profit taking on Tuesday. XLB -1.90%, was the weakest sector with AA leading the way and ATI, TIE, FCX, CF and NEM and other material stocks followed. INFY, +2.82 or +5.14%, reported EPS 8 cents better than expected before the open on Tuesday. Only 12 NDX stocks moved higher with ILMN +15.82% leading the way after releasing preliminary Q4 results. There are numerous bull flags setups including: SPY, BA, CAT, X, ATI, WOR, STLD, BUCY, CREE, DE, DECK, DOW, FWLT, JOYG, PCP, SNDK, TSL Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Look for the intermediate term up trend to continue as we move into Earnings Season. The potential for a pause or pull back which we saw in several stocks on Monday increased to the broad markets on Tuesday. Many stocks broke the low of the high day giving some short traders an exit signal. Stay with your up trending positions. Continue to raise your stops. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Watch for diagonal bull flag pull back setups to find support and present entry opportunities. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -2.39 QCOM -0.80 GOOG -10.63 BIDU -14.80 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include ILMN, INFY, LIFE, ORLY, CTSH, DELL, SHLD, SYMC, WYNN, ROST, CHKP, GILD, INTU, FAST, VRTX, HOLX, PCAR, PPDI, PAYX, YHOO, NIHD, CELG, ORCL, APOL, COST, TEVA, RYAAY, WCRX, MOSFT, URBN, ADP, XRAY and HANS. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CREE, MA, DLB, DE, ALGT, TSL, AFAM, GR, SYNA, PCP, AGU, MON, TDG, X, NIHD, URE, GES, USD, CBST, SNA, SNDK, MYGN, AMED, WLT, GMCR, HANS, SWN, CAM, CTSH, WAB, ESI, JEC, MOS, UYG, VAR, AAPL, ACN, DOW, DECK, FAS, USO, GS, ATW, AMX, BYI, CHL, CEDC, HDB, HEAT, IPI, JOYG, CAT, FLS, FUQI, HLF, POT, K, MHS, PWRD, WMT Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 BKC, MCD, UNG Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 AMD, BDX, CGA, EBAY, ICE Staying Below 30 DMA WCG, VPRT, GME, MELI, PCLN, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

2 comments:

CR said...

Hi everyone - Today I had many trades stop out - I might have had some stops too tight but now I have good re-entry rules and am not afraid of the trades that stopped out - they are still "good" trades - when I reenter they may be "good" and "profitable"

Scott Avery said...

Good point CR. I had some stop outs as well. Thanks for reminding us that we should continue to look at those stocks for re-entries each day.